It ain't over, 'ti;; it's Over

[notin]

The Sox were paper tigers in 2016 and 2017. They became juggernauts when a few guys peaked and JDM was added. Those guys have come back to earth and the same bone headed s*** that happened during the paper tiger years has reappeared. The only difference is the ALE is WAY better than it was then. The Sox are an above average team with a lot of talent. They happened to play Together for one season and they won it all. This season, from the games I’ve watched, it looks like the Sox team is playing in silos. Good individually but together a mess

 

And yet many before the season thought the Sox in 2018 were not a playoff team at all...

[notin]

I would like to see Sale's stats when pitching with 2 strikes . His K totals would indicate an excellent (low ) BA/OPS against. But also like to see #'s when pitching with 2 outs, and likewise with RISP . I'm beginning to think he may suffer from a syndrome sometimes seen with Buchholz , Bard and others . No need to be subtle---Does Chris Sale have problems when under pressure ?

 

I agree with most that W-L's are to a significant degree out of the pitcher's direct control. Over a large sample, allowing some of randomness to level out, you would expect a dominant "ACE" to win more times than lose. Sale in 2018 and 2019 does seem to get poor support, but how does his run support compare to other leading #1's or even the whole staff?

 

Sale has held hitters to a .655 OPS with men on base and a .669 with RISP. Also a .646 OPSA in Late and Close situations.

 

In High Leverage situations, his OPSA is .794 in 42 PA. Most of this is carried by singles, as he has only allowed 1 HR in these at bats and has an 18/2 K/BB ratio. (Although he has 3 hit batsmen).

 

In his 12 starts, he has faced the Yankees, Astros and Rays 5 times! (Sox are 1-4 in those games.) He was also victimized by very poor run support in some of his favorable match ups, such as being on the wrong end of an Aaron Brooks 1-0 shutout. Yes, Aaron Brooks.

[vegasbob]

Sale has held hitters to a .655 OPS with men on base and a .669 with RISP. Also a .646 OPSA in Late and Close situations.

 

In High Leverage situations, his OPSA is .794 in 42 PA. Most of this is carried by singles, as he has only allowed 1 HR in these at bats and has an 18/2 K/BB ratio. (Although he has 3 hit batsmen).

 

In his 12 starts, he has faced the Yankees, Astros and Rays 5 times! (Sox are 1-4 in those games.) He was also victimized by very poor run support in some of his favorable match ups, such as being on the wrong end of an Aaron Brooks 1-0 shutout. Yes, Aaron Brooks.

 

Thanks, Notin. Appreciate the info . Accordingly, it seems that lack of support is a more significant factor in his losses than in his meaningful stats. The .794 OPSA being mostly singles may be exacerbated by how many are on base. Hicks 2 out, 2 strike single last night plated 2.

[moonslav59]

Sale's OPS Against vs top competition:

2017

.666 v Yanks

.564 v Rays

n/a v Astros

2018

.470 v Yanks

.420 v Rays

.655 v Astros

2019 (small samples)

.855 v Yanks

.676 v Rays

.661 v Astros

 

There is no evidence that Sale falters vs tough opponents.

 

 

[vegasbob]

Sale's OPS Against vs top competition:

2017

.666 v Yanks

.564 v Rays

n/a v Astros

2018

.470 v Yanks

.420 v Rays

.655 v Astros

2019 (small samples)

.855 v Yanks

.676 v Rays

.661 v Astros

 

There is no evidence that Sale falters vs tough opponents.

 

 

 

Thanks for the added #'s exonerating Sale. The problem remains at least this year that the team loses his starts , more than any other Sox regular starter. That may be the hitters assuming Sale will get a shutout every time so don't need to work at creating runs. Or do the Sox always line Sale up against the opponents ACE ? I don't think that is the case.

[moonslav59]

Thanks for the added #'s exonerating Sale. The problem remains at least this year that the team loses his starts , more than any other Sox regular starter. That may be the hitters assuming Sale will get a shutout every time so don't need to work at creating runs. Or do the Sox always line Sale up against the opponents ACE ? I don't think that is the case.

 

Maybe hitter complacency when he is starting plays a role. Maybe opposing pitchers get jacked up when they know they are facing Sale.

 

I think Sale will start getting wins. He's been pitching better after his poor start. Hopefully, the odds will catch up, soon.