2019 Prospects

[OH FOY]

I've seen both play once in Portland.

 

I will say, Dalbec is twice the defender Chavis is at 3B, and I'm not the only one who thinks that.

 

BTW, I did mention Chavis at 2B and Dalbec at 1B next year.

 

Dalbec made another error yesterday his 14th. No sense to bring this up again. Different opinions.

Edited July 7, 2019 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Dalbec made another error yesterday his 14th. No sense to bring this up again.

 

If you really think errors tells the whole story on defense, then you are right, there's no sense bringing this up again.

 

Here's what soxprospects has to say (not that they are the top scouting experts around):

 

Dalbec:

Field: Hands work well and footwork is usually reliable. A little stiff and has some trouble getting down on ground balls when charging the ball. Doesn't have great range, but makes up for that somewhat with his length, allowing him to cover more ground than his feet would normally allow. Has made great strides since he joined the Red Sox and now projects as an above-average defender at third base.

Arm: Plus-plus arm strength. Touched the mid-90s off the mound in college. Plenty of arm for third base, able to make all the throws including balls fielded on the foul line...has the potential to become an everyday regular at third base with good defense.

 

Plus, there is this to ponder... Red Sox Minor League Defensive Player of the Year (2018)

 

Chavis:

Field: Not the most fluid defender. Footwork is choppy and lets the ball play him at times. Hands work and has average range in the field. Has more range to his glove side than when going to his right. Has the raw tools to be at least a fringe-average defender. Started playing first base in the 2017 Arizona Fall League and second base during Spring Training 2019. Played shortstop initially after signing, but was moved off the position to third base very soon thereafter.

 

Arm: Above-average arm, able to make all the throws from third base, including deep against the foul line. Accuracy suffers at times due to sloppy footwork...Needs to make major strides defensively

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

soxprospects is not an objective site and you know it. jsinger used to post here but couldn't handle the backlash when his reports were questioned

[notin]

soxprospects is not an objective site and you know it. jsinger used to post here but couldn't handle the backlash when his reports were questioned

 

 

Back when they used to give MLB Comparisons, they were notably extremely generous. Lars Anderson just never lived up to being the next Justin Morneau.

 

On the other hand, sometimes other sites do like some of the Sox other players better than Soxprospects. Fangraphs, for example, thought Cole Sturgeon could have an MLB career as a bench player, going so far as to call him a “poor man’s David DeJesus.” Soxprospects usually just labels him as a player who can continue to play minor league ball for as long as he wants...

[moonslav59]

soxprospects is not an objective site and you know it. jsinger used to post here but couldn't handle the backlash when his reports were questioned

 

It may not be all that objective, but they have been pretty good with their rankings when separating prospects by value.

 

Also, the bias for Sox players in general should not sway them to give Dalbec the Defensive Player of the Year Award, if he wasn't at least a good defender among a system possible lacking one great defender.

 

Their scouting reports often mention weak areas or give coded messages like "this player will likely be moved to 1B."

[OH FOY]

Tons of kids to keep an eye on, Thad Ward in Salem is having a heck of a season, hope it continues.

Last 10 games 57 innings, 39 hits, 68 K's, 5 ER's. A 0.78 era.

[jacksonianmarch]

Tons of kids to keep an eye on, Thad Ward in Salem is having a heck of a season, hope it continues.

Last 10 games 57 innings, 39 hits, 68 K's, 5 ER's. A 0.78 era.

 

When soxprospects calls you a potential swingman, it means there isn't much there. Stuff sounds like a 5 starter, although he is the rare RHP softer tosser with high walk rate to get outs.

[OH FOY]

I have not read SoxProspects in years. If that what you like no problem with me, I like Perfect Game more when it comes to Minor League evaluations.

https://www.milb.com/greenville/news/three-drive-players-tabbed-for-south-atlantic-league-all-star-game/c-307719030

This was High School evaluation.

https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=338792

Edited July 9, 2019 by OH FOY!

[notin]

When soxprospects calls you a potential swingman, it means there isn't much there. Stuff sounds like a 5 starter, although he is the rare RHP softer tosser with high walk rate to get outs.

 

One of the bigger issues on Soxprospects is how infrequently they update their player profiles.

 

Certainly no one would project any A ball starter as an MLB starter except the highest of draft picks with elite pedigrees. And Ward is in high A at 22, which doesn’t help his cause.

 

Their projections for him should change when Ward reaches AA. And hopefully again after he makes several starts at that level. Whether their projections get better or worse will depend on his performance.

 

And maybe it is time to promote Ward. He appears to have little to prove in A ball...

[jacksonianmarch]

It is more likely he gets type cast just due to the way players are valued these days. If you don't have a big fastball or insane movement, you're a swing guy. He will need to do a lot to break that mold.

[moonslav59]

If you really think errors tells the whole story on defense, then you are right, there's no sense bringing this up again.

 

Here's what soxprospects has to say (not that they are the top scouting experts around):

 

Dalbec:

Field: Hands work well and footwork is usually reliable. A little stiff and has some trouble getting down on ground balls when charging the ball. Doesn't have great range, but makes up for that somewhat with his length, allowing him to cover more ground than his feet would normally allow. Has made great strides since he joined the Red Sox and now projects as an above-average defender at third base.

Arm: Plus-plus arm strength. Touched the mid-90s off the mound in college. Plenty of arm for third base, able to make all the throws including balls fielded on the foul line...has the potential to become an everyday regular at third base with good defense.

 

Plus, there is this to ponder... Red Sox Minor League Defensive Player of the Year (2018)

 

Chavis:

Field: Not the most fluid defender. Footwork is choppy and lets the ball play him at times. Hands work and has average range in the field. Has more range to his glove side than when going to his right. Has the raw tools to be at least a fringe-average defender. Started playing first base in the 2017 Arizona Fall League and second base during Spring Training 2019. Played shortstop initially after signing, but was moved off the position to third base very soon thereafter.

 

Arm: Above-average arm, able to make all the throws from third base, including deep against the foul line. Accuracy suffers at times due to sloppy footwork...Needs to make major strides defensively

 

 

If soxprospects.com is not your cup of tea, I found this on Dalbec's defense:

 

SB Nation:

Along with all of that, it’s worth noting that Dalbec is an underrated defender at third base. His pitching background gives him a big arm to work with, and his work with the glove is average-at-worst. There probably aren’t Gold Gloves in his future, but he’s above-average out there.

 

Live Scouting Reports:

While he probably won’t win any gold gloves, Dalbec’s footwork and range at third is passable and he can make up for mistakes with a strong throwing arm. Even if he’s forced to move across the diamond long-term, his offensive profile will play just fine there as well. But for what it’s worth, the Red Sox moved Chavis to first instead of Dalbec. Take that how you want to.

 

20-80 Baseball:

 

Field 50 50

XL frame is surprisingly agile at 3B. Feet work, hands are soft; think he stays at 3B long term.

 

Throw 60 60

Former college closer, arm-strength shows up from the hot corner; plus arm w/ velocity and low line across the infield. Arm strength bails out his first step, allows him to play a step back.

[moonslav59]

Weber 7 IP 1 ER 1 H 3 BB 3 K

Lakins 0 IP 3 ER

Kelley 2 IP 1 ER (BS)

Castillo 2-4 w 9th HR (.738 OPS)

Travis 2-4 w 6th HR

 

Duran & Chatham 0-4

Dalbec 1-2 BB

Kent 7 IP 1 ER

 

Brannen 2-5

Casas 1-4 w 3 rbi

Granberg 2-5

Machamer 4 IP 0 ER

Haworth 4 IP 1 ER

[jacksonianmarch]

It seems like even the pen guys who you bring up to Boston go back to AAA and can’t get ours. There’s some pathogen in the Fenway pen that is infectious

[Fan_since_Boggs]

informative article. I'll post the entire piece, since the Boston Globe can sometimes be difficult to access. I'm starting to think that Jimenez is the Red Sox's best prospect or will be in a short amount of time. Hard to say, since the Red Sox system is loaded with other great prospects like Casas and Mata.

 

Cluster of talent at Lowell may bode well for Red Sox farm system

 

By now, the view of the Red Sox farm system across the industry is consistent: Their prospect pool has been drained significantly. Because players are now either starring in Boston or were moved to acquire other key contributors, the pipeline now moves in drips, with the upper levels in particular viewed as light on impact prospects.

 

Scouts largely emerge from seeing the Red Sox’ top affiliates with a shake of the head.

 

Against that backdrop, the start of the Lowell Spinners season carries unusual significance. The short-season New York-Penn League affiliate features players who are years away from the big leagues but whose loud tools and athleticism capture the imagination of evaluators.

 

“Obviously we know what the industry believes,” said Red Sox assistant general manager Eddie Romero. “You can’t ignore that. “But at the same time, in-house, we have a good feeling for what we have. There’s talent coming on the way. We have the makings of what we want. “We know we’ve traded away several guys. We’re trying to refill the tank with more prospects. In-house, we feel very confident we have a very good wave of players coming.”

 

There are, the Red Sox believe, players at full-season levels who represent part of that wave. A pair of 2018 draftees — first-rounder Triston Casas (a first baseman) and seventh-rounder Jarren Duran (a center fielder) — have dominated in stretches over their first full year of professional ball. Third baseman Bobby Dalbec and pitchers Tanner Houck, Darwinzon Hernandez, and Bryan Mata all show the potential to be solid contributors.

 

Yet there is a fascinating group in Lowell with considerable variance between their ceilings and floors, players who — if everything goes right — could help alter perception about the Red Sox farm system quickly.

 

The spectrum of potential outcomes is considerable, both for the individual players and the organization as a whole.

 

The most intriguing of the group is likely outfielder Gilberto Jimenez, an 18-year-old out of the Dominican Republic who shows jaw-dropping athleticism that has translated quickly to the field. He entered pro ball as a righthanded hitter, then was introduced to switch hitting and made striking gains, hitting .350/.416/.478 against righties last summer in the Dominican Summer League.

 

“To be honest with you, sometimes you can’t even tell [he’s new to switch hitting],” said Lowell hitting coach Nate Spears. “It looks like he’s been doing it his whole life.

 

“He’s a little fireball,” said Lowell third baseman Nick Northcut. “He gets in the box every time and it’s like he can never swing and miss.”

 

Jimenez’s electrifying speed represents a practical weapon thanks to solid contact skills. Lowell manager Luke Montz noted that he beat out routine grounders to second on multiple occasions in extended spring training. He also is developing bunting skills to exploit his speed.

 

On top of that, his strength and physicality in combination with rapid skill acquisition create a sense of considerable upside — a player who already shows the potential for four tools (hitting, running, outfield defense, throwing) that are average or better and with enough strength when he gets the barrel on the ball to suggest even more upside.

 

“Seeing this kid it’s like, ‘Wow, there’s a lot in there,’ ” said Montz.

 

“He’s got a great frame,” said Romero. “He’s a running back. Had he been raised in the States, he probably would have been playing football.

 

“The leap he’s made since getting professional instruction not only on the physical side but also the mental side has been the most impressive. His pure athleticism, which was very crude, is now exhibiting itself regularly. All our rovers, our coaches, think he has tremendous upside.”

 

Shortstop Antoni Flores, signed out of Venezuela for $1.4 million in 2017, is more polished. Last year, he proved so dominant in the DSL (.347/.439/.510) that he was promoted after just 13 games to the Gulf Coast League. The 18-year-old’s size (listed at 6 feet 1 inch and 190 pounds), gap power, and ease in moving around the field (teammates call him “Flo Motion”) are somewhat reminiscent, Spears thought, of a younger Xander Bogaerts.

 

To Flores, who befriended Bogaerts in spring training and hopes to emulate him, such a comparison represents not merely a great compliment but an aspiration.

 

“I want to be like Xander Bogaerts,” said Flores. “He’s great.”

 

Jimenez will flip-flop in center and right with 2018 second-rounder Nick Decker, a 19-year-old who shows serious bat life that creates obvious power potential.

 

“He has freakish fast hands and unbelievable pop,” said Northcut.

 

Northcut, a 2018 11th-rounder, may not have the high ceiling of his up-the-middle teammates, but the 20-year-old exhibits plate discipline along with solid power and defense. He, too, has tools that suggest the potential of an everyday big leaguer.

 

With those four young players — plus 2019 college draftees Cameron Cannon (second round), righty Ryan Zeferjahn (third round), and catcher Jaxx Groshans (fifth round) — the Red Sox believe that Lowell may have a cluster of talent that could coalesce to reshape the state and perception of their system.

 

“We’ve got some studs,” said Spears.

 

Whether that optimism yields prospect fruit over the next several years remains to be seen, and certainly the youth and inexperience of the affiliate will result in inconsistent play. But the Red Sox hope the Spinners offer some early glimpses of a coming talent wave on a distant horizon.

 

“Obviously it’s exciting that you start tapping into some more talent,” said Romero. “Even if it is a few years away, those are guys that can provide value for us.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/06/14/cluster-talent-lowell-may-bode-well-for-red-sox-farm-system/aU0VF9UudMAInU3jPGxuHK/story.html

Edited July 16, 2019 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

Thanks boggs. Sometimes, I need a boost of confidence about our farm. At least there is hope on the distant horizon.

[OH FOY]

Last 30 days Dalbec is hitting .207. Edited July 16, 2019 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Last 30 days Dalbec is hitting .207.

 

MLB players have those sort of slumps as well. How many dingers within that .207?

[mvp 78]

Speier: Casas is up to 16 homers. I believe he’d be the first Red Sox teenager with 20+ in a season since Bogaerts.

[moonslav59]

De la Guerra 2-4 with 9th HR

Castillo 2-4 with 9th HR

 

Wade 7 IP 0 ER 3 H 0 BB 6 K (to 3.13 ERA)

Duran 0-4 (3 Ks)

Chatham 2-4

Curletta 2-3 (2B & BB)

Dalbec 0-2 (2 BB & 2 runs)

 

Haworth 5.2 IP 1 ER 5 H 0 BB 4 K

Casas 3-4 (16th HR) to .859 OPS

Lozada 2-4 (3rd HR)

[OH FOY]

5 HR's in last 30 games, 7 HR's since June 2nd. 38 games. Last HR July 4th. Hitting .200 for 2nd half of season so far, 25 games, hit .240 in 1st half, 64 games. Edited July 17, 2019 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

Lowell has a good team. There is some good young kids there. Only winning team in the Minors for the Sox.

https://www.milb.com/lowell

I'll make it a point to see them when they come to Ct. Went last year, had a blast. Game then Casino.

Edited July 17, 2019 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

AAA

Castillo hit his 11th HR (2-4)

Owings hit his 5th HR (2-3 BB)

de la Guerra hit his 10th.

Sturgeon 2-3

E Ramires 5 IP 0ER 0H 1BB 6K

B Johnson 2 IP 1ER 2H 0BB 4K

Houck 1 IP 0ER 0H 1BB 1K

Lakins 1 IP 0ER 0H 0BB 1K

 

AA

Duran 2 for 5

J Nunez 5th HR and 4 rbi

Matheney 2-4 (2B)

 

A

Lozada 4-6 (2 HRs + 2B)

Casas 3-3 (3 BBs)

Brannen 3-5

Williams 3-5

Granberg 3-6

Cottam 2-4 (1 BB)

Howlett 1-4 (2 BB)

 

 

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Speier: Casas is up to 16 homers. I believe he’d be the first Red Sox teenager with 20+ in a season since Bogaerts.

 

 

Casas is a stud. The Red Sox have a few studs in their farm system including Mata and Jimenez. Unfortunately, these guys are a few years away from the big leagues but they are stars in the making. Hopefully, a year from now, we will be saying the same thing about J.Groome.

[OH FOY]

Denyi Reyes is 4-0 with a 1.04 ERA in July. Kid throws a lot of innings for a Minor Leaguer, hope he finishes strong. When I saw him he threw a 1 hitter, for 6 innings, that was it for him, and took him out. Edited July 24, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Denyi Reyes is 4-0 with a 1.04 ERA in July. Kid throws a lot of innings for a Minor Leaguer, hope he finishes strong. When I saw him he threw a 1 hitter, for 6 innings, that was it for him, and took him out.

 

I was surprised when they placed Reyes on the roster in order to protect him, but maybe the Red Sox knew something. While he has been excellent in July, the strikeouts aren't there. He profiles as a bottom of the rotation starter, maybe a middle starter at best, but those guys can be costly on the free agent market. Thus, a cost-controlled 4th or 5th starter has value for an organization.

[mvp 78]

I was surprised when they placed Reyes on the roster in order to protect him, but maybe the Red Sox knew something. While he has been excellent in July, the strikeouts aren't there. He profiles as a bottom of the rotation starter, maybe a middle starter at best, but those guys can be costly on the free agent market. Thus, a cost-controlled 4th or 5th starter has value for an organization.

 

He doesn’t really strike many people out and doesn’t have overpowering stuff. Will need Maddux like location to be successful as he moves up.

[moonslav59]

I was surprised when they placed Reyes on the roster in order to protect him, but maybe the Red Sox knew something. While he has been excellent in July, the strikeouts aren't there. He profiles as a bottom of the rotation starter, maybe a middle starter at best, but those guys can be costly on the free agent market. Thus, a cost-controlled 4th or 5th starter has value for an organization.

 

Maybe they just felt like he was the closest pitcher to be ML ready and selected in rule 5, not because they liked him better than others.

[OH FOY]

Yeah he has walked more this year then last. What we don't realize is he's young, only 22, he'll be 23 in Nov. That's pretty good progress for that age. 22 at Double AA, is above then most at that age.

[jacksonianmarch]

He finished 2018 as a 21 yr old in High A ball with absolutely impeccable stats showing insane command. It isn't like the sox 40 man (more the 15 guys not on the big league roster) is full of rock stars here. He was an easy cover. I agree with the above. He's a back end of the rotation guy. But that is what you are dying to have. You have 5 starters right now with Cashner and absolutely no depth behind them. Johnson and Velasquez suck. There is a void behind them. If Reyes could be a 5IP 4.50ERA guy, he would be worth his weight in gold to DD.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

He is making the adjustment: Duran has 10 hits in his last 16 at bats at Portland.

 

Admittedly, Duran will probably need another year in the minors, but it is conceivable that if he continues to hit in Portland, the Red Sox could move J.Bradley in the offseason, free up 10 million, and start Duran in CF next year.

Edited July 25, 2019 by Fan_since_Boggs