Nomar, Bogie, and aren't we lucky!

[notin]

As Price said, why would he go somewhere that he doesn't have a good chance to win a ring?

 

I can think of 124 million reasons Price wants to stay and none have anything to do with a ring...

[Bellhorn04]

I can think of 124 million reasons Price wants to stay and none have anything to do with a ring...

 

It's actually 127 mill. The structure was 30/30/30/31/32/32/32.

[OH FOY]

Bogey

 

Career OPS: .770

Career Late & Close: .769

 

.841 this year

.725 last year

.768 year before

.871 year before

.684 year before

 

Hard to project anything from this...

 

Is OPS affected whether its a 2 run Single or 2 Run HR? What should be looked at is 2 RUNS, that was knocked in. One way or another. I like any stat with the Word Run in it. That's what wins a game, how many runs you score and how many you let up.

Edited September 16, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

Is OPS affected whether its a 2 run Single or 2 Run HR?

 

No. OPS is just on base % + slugging %.

[S5Dewey]

Now that I don't get. If it's a big situation it's a big situation.

 

It may be a big situation in terms of the game but whether a player is "clutch" or a "choker" (sorry, but this is my post so I'm going to say it my way! ) depends on how that player reacts physiologically to that situation. If he's concerned about his performance at the time his mind/body will react differently than if he's casual about it.

 

Think of it in terms of golf. If a golfer can make a 4' putt almost anytime with no pressure on him, bet him $10,000 on the putt and he'll react differently. It's the same putt but it becomes more difficult because of the pressure. He may make that putt but if he does he'll breathe a bigger sign of relief after he's done it.

 

"Baseball is 90% mental and the rest is physical".

[notin]

It's actually 127 mill. The structure was 30/30/30/31/32/32/32.

 

I don’t think that invalidates my point...

[notin]

It may be a big situation in terms of the game but whether a player is "clutch" or a "choker" (sorry, but this is my post so I'm going to say it my way! ) depends on how that player reacts physiologically to that situation. If he's concerned about his performance at the time his mind/body will react differently than if he's casual about it.

 

Think of it in terms of golf. If a golfer can make a 4' putt almost anytime with no pressure on him, bet him $10,000 on the putt and he'll react differently. It's the same putt but it becomes more difficult because of the pressure. He may make that putt but if he does he'll breathe a bigger sign of relief after he's done it.

 

"Baseball is 90% mental and the rest is physical".

 

I have to think most MLB players don’t get that far without the ability to handle pressure. And it’s entirely possible the situations fans view as high pressure are not the ones the players view as high pressure...

[Bellhorn04]

I don’t think that invalidates my point...

 

Of course not. I just like correcting people.

[OH FOY]

All I know for years in the Box Score every game they have a thing where it says, how the Teams did with RISP and 2 Outs and RISP, must be important. Which leads to LOB.

[Bellhorn04]

It may be a big situation in terms of the game but whether a player is "clutch" or a "choker" (sorry, but this is my post so I'm going to say it my way! ) depends on how that player reacts physiologically to that situation. If he's concerned about his performance at the time his mind/body will react differently than if he's casual about it.

 

Think of it in terms of golf. If a golfer can make a 4' putt almost anytime with no pressure on him, bet him $10,000 on the putt and he'll react differently. It's the same putt but it becomes more difficult because of the pressure. He may make that putt but if he does he'll breathe a bigger sign of relief after he's done it.

 

"Baseball is 90% mental and the rest is physical".

 

OK, you explained it much better there.

 

I happen to agree with a lot of this. And I do refer to golf too. Golf is the one sport where guys openly talk about choking.

 

Golf is a little different because it involves the small muscles and the nerves so much, but it does tend to support the idea that the pressure is greater in specific situations and that there is a very tangible effect on the mind and the body.

[OH FOY]

The "Clutch" stat will always fluctuate. Hard enough to hit anytime. Never mind with less situations in a game, that you must get a hit. Nobody can do that. What needs to notice is the demeanor of the batter, does he battle the Pitcher, does swing at good Pitches, at 2 strikes, does he make contact or K's. Each batter different, each at bat in these situation different. Its more of the confidence thing in the batter. Does he handle a little more pressure.

A lot of Baseball has to do with the mind.

[OH FOY]

I just watched the 1st at bat again by Bogey, with Runner on 3rd base 2 Outs. He changed his style, he cut down on his swing, tried to shoot the ball the other way, got to 2 Strikes and fought off 2 Pitches that were close, then drove the next pitch up the middle for a Base hit. Drove in 1st run, he knew the importance of getting a hit, not over swinging, try to make good contact. Single was just as good as Double or Triple in that situation, of course you want the extra base hit. But he did his job, with a great at bat. To me that's Clutch.

[Bellhorn04]

I just watched the 1st at bat again by Bogey, with Runner on 3rd base 2 Outs. He changed his style, he cut down on his swing, tried to shoot the ball the other way, got to 2 Strikes and fought off 2 Pitches that were close, then drove the next pitch up the middle for a Base hit. Drove in 1st run, he knew the importance of getting a hit, not over swinging, try to make good contact. Single was just as good as Double or Triple in that situation, of course you want the extra base hit. But he did his job, with a great at bat. To me that's Clutch.

 

Or you could say it was smart.

 

Bogey is having a great year with the bat. He seems to have really progressed in every way as a hitter.

[Kimmi]

Truer words have never been spoken.

 

Obviously, nothing in baseball is 100% predictable. That is not the same as saying that there are no repeatable skills in baseball. There are several hitting stats that correlate strongly from one year to the next.

 

The ability to make contact is a strong repeatable skill. Other offensive skills that are repeatable are K%, BB%, GB%, ISO, SLG, OPS, OBP, and wOBA, based on their year to year correlations.

 

Some things that do not correlate well, meaning that a lot is left to randomness or luck are BA, BABIP, LD%, and Clutch.

[Kimmi]

I can think of 124 million reasons Price wants to stay and none have anything to do with a ring...

 

I know. I'm just trying to convince myself that JD will not opt out after next year.

[notin]

I know. I'm just trying to convince myself that JD will not opt out after next year.

 

He will. But he will keep a bat burning in the window for you...

[Kimmi]

I just watched the 1st at bat again by Bogey, with Runner on 3rd base 2 Outs. He changed his style, he cut down on his swing, tried to shoot the ball the other way, got to 2 Strikes and fought off 2 Pitches that were close, then drove the next pitch up the middle for a Base hit. Drove in 1st run, he knew the importance of getting a hit, not over swinging, try to make good contact. Single was just as good as Double or Triple in that situation, of course you want the extra base hit. But he did his job, with a great at bat. To me that's Clutch.

 

To me it's not clutch, it's just Bogey being a good hitter in general. Part of being a good hitter is to know the situation and to adjust accordingly. Ortiz did the same thing. He was a smart hitter and he was a good hitter. He hit well in the clutch because he hit well in general.

[Kimmi]

He will. But he will keep a bat burning in the window for you...

 

As long as he doesn't sign with the Yankees.

[S5Dewey]

Obviously, nothing in baseball is 100% predictable. That is not the same as saying that there are no repeatable skills in baseball. There are several hitting stats that correlate strongly from one year to the next.

 

The ability to make contact is a strong repeatable skill. Other offensive skills that are repeatable are K%, BB%, GB%, ISO, SLG, OPS, OBP, and wOBA, based on their year to year correlations.

 

Some things that do not correlate well, meaning that a lot is left to randomness or luck are BA, BABIP, LD%, and Clutch.

 

If a skill were repeatable a player would be able to do it every time. That's why I say that throwing a baseball and swinging a bat are repeatable skills - not with the same accuracy, but the skills to throw and swing are repeatable. Statistics have proven that some players are better at striking the ball squarely than other players which surprises me given that they're trying to strike a moving sphere with a cylinder but their ability to strike it squarely repeatedly isn't a skill anyone has. More frequently, yes. Repeatedly, no.

 

As to BA & BAPIP, I know from personal experience (I know, but still....) that when I stepped into the batters box I'd always look at the defensive alignment. I found that on those times when all I could see was fielders I wasn't very successful at getting a hit but when all I could see was grass I was very successful. Call it mental, call it what you want, but it's the way it was.

[moonslav59]

The main problem with "clutch" stats is that they are always small and scattered sample sizes.

 

While hitting well may be a repeatable skill, doing so in such a few selected moments spread out over a season and several seasons at the same rate or better is not something easily quantifiable.

 

If a player hits 60 Hrs in a season, but hits none in 4 clutch PAs in the playoffs, do we call him a "choke?" (Some actually would.)

 

If he goes oh for 4 in any given game in that season, do we say he sucks? Of course not.

 

[sk7326]

If a skill were repeatable a player would be able to do it every time. That's why I say that throwing a baseball and swinging a bat are repeatable skills - not with the same accuracy, but the skills to throw and swing are repeatable. Statistics have proven that some players are better at striking the ball squarely than other players which surprises me given that they're trying to strike a moving sphere with a cylinder but their ability to strike it squarely repeatedly isn't a skill anyone has. More frequently, yes. Repeatedly, no.

 

As to BA & BAPIP, I know from personal experience (I know, but still....) that when I stepped into the batters box I'd always look at the defensive alignment. I found that on those times when all I could see was fielders I wasn't very successful at getting a hit but when all I could see was grass I was very successful. Call it mental, call it what you want, but it's the way it was.

 

BABIP is largely random but not 100%. It seems more controllable from the pitching side than the hitting one. At the same time, line drives correlate with hits - which lines up nicely with how we were all coached.