The Alex Cora Managerial Decision Thread

[Bellhorn04]

I'm guessing the fact that JBJ vs. Manaea is 0-6 with 3 Ks and slashing .088/.139/.237 this year against southpaws may have factored into the decision. Not sure which would be worse, he goes 1-3 and sits or he plays and looks awful at the plate (again), which could undo whatever good thoughts he had from the day before.

 

I agree 100%. Cora wants to get JBJ on a bit of a positive run at the plate so it makes perfect sense to sit him against Manaea.

[Bellhorn04]

It's extremely difficult to win games consistently with mediocrity or worst. That's what everyone is except Betts and JD in the lineup.

 

Let's be reasonable. Moreland has a .992 OPS and 20 RBI in 29 games. Bogaerts has an .870 OPS and 18 RBI in 25 games. Hanley has an .806 OPS and 28 RBI in 36 games.

[jacksonianmarch]

Let's be reasonable. Moreland has a .992 OPS and 20 RBI in 29 games. Bogaerts has an .870 OPS and 18 RBI in 25 games. Hanley has an .806 OPS and 28 RBI in 36 games.

 

I am not sure anyone believes Moreland will be able to keep up a blistering pace since he did the same bit last year only to tail off and have a mediocre season. I also wonder how much of Hanley's success is luck driven. His BABIP is 50 points higher than last year at .321. His value can rise if his power shows up, but he is on pace for the lowest Iso since 2014 when he only hit 13HR in 128 games. If he regresses due to luck and his power doesn't show, then he will not be an asset to your club

[notin]

I am not sure anyone believes Moreland will be able to keep up a blistering pace since he did the same bit last year only to tail off and have a mediocre season. I also wonder how much of Hanley's success is luck driven. His BABIP is 50 points higher than last year at .321. His value can rise if his power shows up, but he is on pace for the lowest Iso since 2014 when he only hit 13HR in 128 games. If he regresses due to luck and his power doesn't show, then he will not be an asset to your club

 

If he hits, he is an asset. If he doesn't, he gets benched and his option doesn't kick in.

 

Win-win...

[jacksonianmarch]

If he hits, he is an asset. If he doesn't, he gets benched and his option doesn't kick in.

 

Win-win...

 

Hanley is a hitting version of E-Rod, IMO. Guys with tantalizing skills who have been unable to put it together in a sox jersey for more than a few months

[Bellhorn04]

I am not sure anyone believes Moreland will be able to keep up a blistering pace since he did the same bit last year only to tail off and have a mediocre season. I also wonder how much of Hanley's success is luck driven. His BABIP is 50 points higher than last year at .321. His value can rise if his power shows up, but he is on pace for the lowest Iso since 2014 when he only hit 13HR in 128 games. If he regresses due to luck and his power doesn't show, then he will not be an asset to your club

 

Hanley's career BABip is .322, so 2017 was an anomaly.

 

And he has 3 HR in his last 5 games.

 

We'll see about the rest of the year, but he's been good so far.

[Maxbialystock]

let's not forget that Blake Swihart also grounded into an inning killing double play with 1st and 2nd 0 outs. JBj K's there and it's still 1st & 2nd 1 out.

to hurt our D in 2 positions to get Blake Swiharts bat into the lineup is negligent.

 

Got it. When JBJ is in the lineup, the best thing he can do for his team at bat is to K. What a relief. We can stop complaining about those because JBJ is our best at denying GIDP's. What a guy.

[notin]

Got it. When JBJ is in the lineup, the best thing he can do for his team at bat is to K. What a relief. We can stop complaining about those because JBJ is our best at denying GIDP's. What a guy.

 

In that at-bat, which wuld you prefer - K or GIDP?

 

Swihart is rusty at this point. He made the team based on a terrific ST and he has been left alone since. Not sure what defense there is for him. He probably should have been traded in March when teams wanted him...

[Maxbialystock]

Hanley's career BABip is .322, so 2017 was an anomaly.

 

And he has 3 HR in his last 5 games.

 

We'll see about the rest of the year, but he's been good so far.

 

Hanley was very good in 2016, OPS .866 and 111 rbi's, with Ortiz in the lineup. He was 32 then, 34 now, so my thought is you are probably right. Except for the baserunning gaffe--pause to watch what turned into a double when there were 2 outs--I think he has also played with enthusiasm.

[S5Dewey]

Got it. When JBJ is in the lineup, the best thing he can do for his team at bat is to K. What a relief. We can stop complaining about those because JBJ is our best at denying GIDP's. What a guy.

 

Sometimes when a player is in a slump a K isn't the worst thing that can happen. IIRC we went through that with Mike Napoli too.

 

JBJ is still our BEST Center Fielder, plus his being there makes the entire outfield stronger.

[S5Dewey]

Hanley was very good in 2016, OPS .866 and 111 rbi's, with Ortiz in the lineup. He was 32 then, 34 now, so my thought is you are probably right. Except for the baserunning gaffe--pause to watch what turned into a double when there were 2 outs--I think he has also played with enthusiasm.

 

That demonstrates the value of protection in the order.

[Maxbialystock]

In that at-bat, which wuld you prefer - K or GIDP?

 

Swihart is rusty at this point. He made the team based on a terrific ST and he has been left alone since. Not sure what defense there is for him. He probably should have been traded in March when teams wanted him...

 

There are I think zero managers anywhere who will tell or want a batter to strike out, even with men on first and second and less than two outs. That's why NL managers want their pitchers to learn hot to bunt--to do something useful besides K with men on base.

[Maxbialystock]

That demonstrates the value of protection in the order.

 

Yup. It's why Ortiz liked having Manny Ramirez in the lineup--in his words, so he could get "a pitch to hit."

[notin]

That demonstrates the value of protection in the order.

 

Then why was his OPS only .717 the year before?

[notin]

There are I think zero managers anywhere who will tell or want a batter to strike out, even with men on first and second and less than two outs. That's why NL managers want their pitchers to learn hot to bunt--to do something useful besides K with men on base.

 

None of which answers the question.

 

What do you prefer in that t-bat? K or GIDP?

 

Whether or not anyone wants a batter to strike out doesn't mean it is always the worst outcome. In fact, if there is one outcome that is potentially worse than a strikeout, isn't it a GIDP?

[Maxbialystock]

Sometimes when a player is in a slump a K isn't the worst thing that can happen. IIRC we went through that with Mike Napoli too.

 

JBJ is still our BEST Center Fielder, plus his being there makes the entire outfield stronger.

 

His WAR is currently -.4, 2d worst in MLB among starting centerfielders.

[illinoisredsox]

none of which answers the question.

 

What do you prefer in that t-bat? K or gidp?

 

Whether or not anyone wants a batter to strike out doesn't mean it is always the worst outcome. in fact, if there is one outcome that is potentially worse than a strikeout, isn't it a gidp?

 

Maybe a GITP?

[S5Dewey]

Then why was his OPS only .717 the year before?

 

The year before was 2015, the .717 year. That's the year he injured his shoulder by running into the wall.

[Slasher9]

His WAR is currently -.4, 2d worst in MLB among starting centerfielders.

 

right. so that means you sit his D to have Blake Swihart get his AB's. Blake Swihart. because WAR says he is -.4. got it.

nunie is -.6 and vaz is -.9 so I guess they will be replaced by Blake Swihart as well.

[notin]

The year before was 2015, the .717 year. That's the year he injured his shoulder by running into the wall.

 

So his improvement could have been attributed to getting healthier, right?

[Maxbialystock]

None of which answers the question.

 

What do you prefer in that t-bat? K or GIDP?

 

Whether or not anyone wants a batter to strike out doesn't mean it is always the worst outcome. In fact, if there is one outcome that is potentially worse than a strikeout, isn't it a GIDP?

 

I'm arguing against 20-20 hindsight. On general principles, I want a hitter to hit the ball, preferably hard, which is close to what Swihart did in the 4th after Bogie walked and Nunez--wait for it--hit a grounder that got thru for a single to RF. Swihart's problem was he hit his grounder right to the SS.

[Slasher9]

I'm arguing against 20-20 hindsight. On general principles, I want a hitter to hit the ball, preferably hard, which is close to what Swihart did in the 4th after Bogie walked and Nunez--wait for it--hit a grounder that got thru for a single to RF. Swihart's problem was he hit his grounder right to the SS.

 

nunez should have never been in the game to begin with! he's a -.6 WAR!

[notin]

His WAR is currently -.4, 2d worst in MLB among starting centerfielders.

 

I'm pretty sure his offense is dragging his WAR down.

 

Defensively, he is the Sox best option in CF.

[notin]

I'm arguing against 20-20 hindsight. On general principles, I want a hitter to hit the ball, preferably hard, which is close to what Swihart did in the 4th after Bogie walked and Nunez--wait for it--hit a grounder that got thru for a single to RF. Swihart's problem was he hit his grounder right to the SS.

 

Not really arguing against hindsight, as the original supposition was Bradley would have struck out. Maybe he would have, but since he actually didn't bat, we don't know what he would have done.

 

Bradley (31.0%) has hit the ball hard as often as Swihart (31.8%) this year

Edited May 15, 2018 by notin

[Slasher9]

I'm arguing against 20-20 hindsight.

 

no, your arguing with me. and I am on record saying over and over JBj should be in the lineup everyday as a .100 hitter because his D is that important to our team. it isn't "20/20" hindsight.

boil it down it is just plain DUMB to weaken 2 defensive positions in a major league baseball game to get Blake Swihart's bat into the lineup.

[S5Dewey]

His WAR is currently -.4, 2d worst in MLB among starting centerfielders.

 

Yeah.. and his bdWAR is 0.0, saying that JBJ is an exactly average CF. That should give us some idea of exactly how accurate dWar is. LOL

[S5Dewey]

So his improvement could have been attributed to getting healthier, right?

 

Yes, and his decline in 2015 was due to the ill health of his shoulder.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm pretty sure his offense is dragging his WAR down.

 

Defensively, he is the Sox best option in CF.

 

Of course he is, and by a good margin. But the whole idea of WAR is to measure the whole player. That's why I went through that exercise arguing that the average lineup player's bat is five times as important as his glove. By and large Cora has shown a willingness to play JBJ despite the weak hitting, but lately not so much because the bottom third of the lineup is struggling and the Sox aren't winning as much.

[Spudboy]

I am not sure anyone believes Moreland will be able to keep up a blistering pace since he did the same bit last year only to tail off and have a mediocre season. I also wonder how much of Hanley's success is luck driven. His BABIP is 50 points higher than last year at .321. His value can rise if his power shows up, but he is on pace for the lowest Iso since 2014 when he only hit 13HR in 128 games. If he regresses due to luck and his power doesn't show, then he will not be an asset to your club

 

Your memory has failed you Doc.

 

Moreland was hitting really well until he broke a toe.

 

I don't ever expect much more than career average for Moreland but let's at least give him credit for what he has done without cheapening his performance with incomplete information.

[moonslav59]

Yeah.. and his bdWAR is 0.0, saying that JBJ is an exactly average CF. That should give us some idea of exactly how accurate dWar is. LOL

 

Or, it could be saying that there are an incredibly high amount of excellent defensive CF'ers in MLB today.

 

JBJ could be a great defender but still be 15th best.