A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

Exactly. I am beginning to wonder if the crying out for a power bat is something of an overreaction, since we won the division without one. Sure, it wouldn't hurt - except for any talent we have to give up to acquire it - but I am not convinced it's such a pressing need that DD needs to go overboard in obtaining one. Power, like ace pitching, costs a ridiculous premium nowadays.

 

Good point, and maybe we don't need one of the top 2-3 FAs power hitters (JD, Moose or Hosmer), but I do feel we an opportunity to make a significant improvement in power at 1B with Moreland becoming a FA. Depending on HRam's ability to play 1B or the willingness to move Devers to 1B, perhaps too early, we could seek a big fix at 1B, 3B or DH. We could even look to improve 2 of those positions marginally, instead of one great gain.

 

I'm not sure signing Duda, Nunez and maybe a 4th OF'er like Beltran would be enough to push us on further.

[moonslav59]

I mean, tell me, what is a reasonable price for Abreu? What would it take to get him?

 

They are one team that might settle on "just prospects", but I'm not sure I want to trade away the rest of our farm.

 

As flawed as signing FAs is, I think that's our best shot at finding a difference maker.

[Northern Star]

They are one team that might settle on "just prospects", but I'm not sure I want to trade away the rest of our farm.

 

As flawed as signing FAs is, I think that's our best shot at finding a difference maker.

 

I'd rather be out money than prospects.

[moonslav59]

I'd rather be out money than prospects.

 

Yes, but that's up to Henry and his money.

 

Despite the fact that JD has only played more than 123 games once in his whole career, I place him slightly above Moose.

 

1) Playing DH may help him play more.

2) No second round draft pick lost.

3) Solves the 4th OF'er vacancy and clean-up hitter hole with one signing.

 

We may not be able to sign JD, even if we offer more money. He may love it in AZ. He may take less to play elsewhere. Plus, DD may not offer the most.

 

Moose is my second choice.

 

Duda or Morrison may be a short term fix to bridge us to Machado next winter.

 

A Trade might be plan C or D for me.

 

[notin]

Hmm...

 

If the Sox could trade Bradley, ERod, and another nondescript minor leaguer for Ozuna.

Sign Darvish

Re-sign Nunez. How does that team look

 

Nunez 3B

Pedroia 2B

Betts CF

Ozuna RF

Ramirez DH

Devers 1B

Bogaerts SS

Benintendi LF

Vazquez C

 

(There may be better batting orders. Not the point.)

 

SP - Sale, Darvish, Price, Pomeranz, Porcello. (How many teams have a Cy Young winner as the fifth starter?)

Pen - Kimbrel, Thornburg, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Maddox, Scott, Ross, Hembree ( Too many pitchers, but some will be hurt. Bank on it.)

 

Bench: Leon, Holt, and two others. Impossible to predict right now. Internal candidates include Lin, Marrero, Castillo (Dombrowski once called him a fourth OF. Well, that's the role here. But yes, he is unikely.), Rutledge, Travis, Selsky, Swihart. I expect a free agent or two or maybe some under-the-radar trade for a bench player.

[moonslav59]

Hmm...

 

If the Sox could trade Bradley, ERod, and another nondescript minor leaguer for Ozuna.

Sign Darvish

Re-sign Nunez. How does that team look

 

Nunez 3B

Pedroia 2B

Betts CF

Ozuna RF

Ramirez DH

Devers 1B

Bogaerts SS

Benintendi LF

Vazquez C

 

(There may be better batting orders. Not the point.)

 

SP - Sale, Darvish, Price, Pomeranz, Porcello. (How many teams have a Cy Young winner as the fifth starter?)

Pen - Kimbrel, Thornburg, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Maddox, Scott, Ross, Hembree ( Too many pitchers, but some will be hurt. Bank on it.)

 

Bench: Leon, Holt, and two others. Impossible to predict right now. Internal candidates include Lin, Marrero, Castillo (Dombrowski once called him a fourth OF. Well, that's the role here. But yes, he is unikely.), Rutledge, Travis, Selsky, Swihart. I expect a free agent or two or maybe some under-the-radar trade for a bench player.

 

Not bad. Nunez at 3B and Devers at 1B is not the best D in the world, but having Nunez does give us some flex, if Pedey goes down. We could move Devers back to 3B and find a cheap 1Bman or maybe HRam could play 1B.

 

Another bench guy could be Marco Hernandez.

 

We won't add Castillo's $11M to the luxury tax budget.

[Northern Star]

(How many teams have a Cy Young winner as the fifth starter?)

 

How many teams have a Cy Young winner whose win was a total fluke?

[moonslav59]

How many teams have a Cy Young winner whose win was a total fluke?

 

Not many. Not many even have one Cy Young winner on the staff, period, let alone two with a third who has finished top 6 five years in a row going on six.

[OH FOY]

Anybody here see Devers play 1st base. Saw him this year 4 times, went to park early, Double AA never saw him practice there. Everytime he was at 3rd base. Wonder why Posters here, who probably never saw him play think he's a 1st baseman? Makes absolutely makes no sense, that if he couldn't handle 3rd in the Minors they would keep him there. Learning new positions in the Majors is stupid, unless your team has no chance of making the Play-offs. Then OK. Your team is going for WS and your telling a kid at 20 to learn a new Position in the Majors, is ridiculous. Nice to dream though. Leave him at third and be happy you got a slugger there at last. Edited October 15, 2017 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Anybody here see Devers play 1st base. Saw him this year 4 times, went to park early, Double AA never saw him practice there. Everytime he was at 3rd base. Wonder why Posters here, who probably never saw him play think he's a 1st baseman?

 

Because bad fielding 3Bmen often move to 1B.

 

Look, I realize he's just 20. He has a lot of time to grow and learn and improve. I'm fine with giving him more time at 3B. There's a good chance he can become decent to plus on defense over time.

 

I'm a little worried about learning curve and the affect that might have on our chances at a ring next year, if his curve is flatter than we hope for. I'm not jumping at an opportunity to move Devers to 1B, but it should be an option to consider, if other options don't come together or if we feel adding a clean up hitting 3Bman is the best way to help the line-up.

 

BTW, 1B is considered an easier position to play than 3B. It has its challenges, but one should think Devers would become a decnt 1Bman faster than he can a decent 3Bman defensively. I could be wrong, but I doubt I'm alone in my thinking.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

How many teams have a Cy Young winner whose win was a total fluke?

 

Atlanta had one this year, arguably, R. A. Dickey. He and Porcello are the most unlikely Cy Young winners of recent years, I would say.

[moonslav59]

Atlanta had one this year, arguably, R. A. Dickey. He and Porcello are the most unlikely Cy Young winners of recent years, I would say.

 

Also....

 

Eric Gagne

Brandon Webb

Bartolo Colon

Barry Zito

Pat Hentgen

 

[Jasonbay44]

Also....

 

Eric Gagne

Brandon Webb

Bartolo Colon

Barry Zito

Pat Hentgen

 

I wouldn't say Webb belongs in that group. In his prime he was absolutely dominant, it was just injuries ended his career prematurely.

[Northern Star]

So I'm reading all the speculation and wishlist filling in the thread and wondering if everyone forgot the thread's title?

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't say Webb belongs in that group. In his prime he was absolutely dominant, it was just injuries ended his career prematurely.

 

Zito and Gagne were "dominant", too.

[moonslav59]

So I'm reading all the speculation and wishlist filling in the thread and wondering if everyone forgot the thread's title?

 

Well, with DD as the GM, one can imagine almost anything.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR on the Sox managerial hunt...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/the-red-sox-managerial-search.html

[Jasonbay44]

Zito and Gagne were "dominant", too.

 

Zito had a very up and down career, with one ridiculous season, a few good ones and bunch of mediocre/bad ones. Webb was an elite starter his whole career before an injury ruined it. If a guy like Webb who was elite for 6 year stretch winning a cy young is considered a fluke, you could argue almost any Cy Young award winner was a fluke.

[Northern Star]

Well, with DD as the GM, one can imagine almost anything.

 

Expect the unexpected!

 

[except then, it's not unexpected any more]

[notin]

Anybody here see Devers play 1st base. Saw him this year 4 times, went to park early, Double AA never saw him practice there. Everytime he was at 3rd base. Wonder why Posters here, who probably never saw him play think he's a 1st baseman? Makes absolutely makes no sense, that if he couldn't handle 3rd in the Minors they would keep him there. Learning new positions in the Majors is stupid, unless your team has no chance of making the Play-offs. Then OK. Your team is going for WS and your telling a kid at 20 to learn a new Position in the Majors, is ridiculous. Nice to dream though. Leave him at third and be happy you got a slugger there at last.

 

 

The move from third to first is hardly a huge leap. It's not like taking a catcher and making him play left field.

 

Every team has players who change position, and I'm not talking about moving right fielders to left field, either.

 

What's ridiculous is limiting your options at 1B to the "meh" available options out there because you don't want some kid who has never played first to play there before. If Bogaerts can be switched from short to third for the post-season, why is Devers so entrenched at third base?

[notin]

How many teams have a Cy Young winner whose win was a total fluke?

 

A fluke Cy Young winner still get s the award.

 

Why are you holding his best season against him?

[Bellhorn04]

A fluke Cy Young winner still get s the award.

 

Why are you holding his best season against him?

 

No one should hold Porcello's 2016 season against him. But his 2015 and 2017 seasons were certainly big disappointments.

[moonslav59]

Expect the unexpected!

 

[except then, it's not unexpected any more]

 

My head is spinning!

[moonslav59]

The move from third to first is hardly a huge leap. It's not like taking a catcher and making him play left field.

 

Every team has players who change position, and I'm not talking about moving right fielders to left field, either.

 

What's ridiculous is limiting your options at 1B to the "meh" available options out there because you don't want some kid who has never played first to play there before. If Bogaerts can be switched from short to third for the post-season, why is Devers so entrenched at third base?

 

Especially since he was on a pace for 45 errors per 160 games.

 

He made 30 errors in 118 games between AA, AAA and MLB. 6 errors in 17 games last winter. That's 36 in 135 games since the end of last season.

[moonslav59]

No one should hold Porcello's 2016 season against him. But his 2015 and 2017 seasons were certainly big disappointments.

 

His 2014 season was pretty good, so maybe it's an even year thing.

[moonslav59]

This from soxprospects.com

 

---The Red Sox became the first team to sign a prospect from Tibet, bringing on a 16-year-old catcher who played for the Chinese national team. The only debate as of now is what to call him. His birth name is Qiang Ba Ren Zeng. He is listed on the Instructional League roster as Renzeng Qiangba. But according to MLB.com, he likes to go by Justin Qiang.

 

---Blake Swihart will play winter ball in the Dominican Republic and will focus on catching, according to Christopher Smith of Masslive.com

[Northern Star]

This from soxprospects.com

 

---The Red Sox became the first team to sign a prospect from Tibet, bringing on a 16-year-old catcher who played for the Chinese national team. The only debate as of now is what to call him. His birth name is Qiang Ba Ren Zeng. He is listed on the Instructional League roster as Renzeng Qiangba. But according to MLB.com, he likes to go by Justin Qiang.

 

---Blake Swihart will play winter ball in the Dominican Republic and will focus on catching, according to Christopher Smith of Masslive.com

 

Certain international signings lie about their age. This kid lies about his name.

[Northern Star]

A fluke Cy Young winner still get s the award.

 

Why are you holding his best season against him?

 

Because it's in sharp contrast to the rest. He laid an egg this year. Ergo, he is what he is, and last season was lightning in a bottle.

[moonslav59]

Certain international signings lie about their age. This kid lies about his name.

 

I'm guessing this is sarcasm.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Because it's in sharp contrast to the rest. He laid an egg this year. Ergo, he is what he is, and last season was lightning in a bottle.

 

Porcello's best ERA- seasons:

 

72 2016

 

87 2009

89 2014

 

102 2017

107 2013

 

110 2012

114 2011

117 2010

118 2015

 

Not so surprising that 3 of his best 4 seasons have been in the last 4 years (his prime years).

 

Then again, other numbers tell another story:

 

FIP-

 

81 2016

 

89 2013

94 2012

96 2014

97 2017

 

100 2011

103 2010

104 2015

107 2017

107 2009

 

Still, 3 of his best 5 seasons have been in the last 4 seasons.