2017 Rotation Discussion

[S5Dewey]

I hated Price's contract from Day 1. Not getting him or even paying him, but the opt-out clause. I saw (essentially) no way this could work out in the favor of the Sox. The only way it could is if he pitches like a stud for every year of his contract AND the SP market escalates. What are the chances?

 

Now he hasn't pitched like a stud every year and the SP market has yet to emerge. I hope he opts out, but I'm not optimistic.

[S5Dewey]

The Yankees would have been better off if Sabathia exercised his opt out and signed elsewhere - agree or disagree?

 

I agree completely and that's exactly the point. Whether it's the Sox, the Yankees, or any other team, giving the player the control in the situation almost guarantees that the player will get the best end of the deal.

[Nick]

Price's contract is what we had to do to get him. It was no one's fault other than those that put us in a back to back last place finishes. Do I need to remind anyone of Lester fiasco?

 

Hiring of DD was a mandate by the ownership group for the baseball people to do whatever it takes to become relevant again.

 

We don't win last year without Price pitching 200+ innings. We still had to go get Pomeranz when Kelly, Buchholtz, E Rod and Wright all went through down periods.

 

He's only 1 1/2 years into his contract. Shouldn't we give him at least 3 years before we criticize him? Injuries are part of the game. It's not as though he gained 30lbs and got out of shape.

 

I just don't see the hate coming at him from all angles. His fastball touched 97 mph last game. Why tear down a player? His money is not an albatross the size of Pablo's.

[Nick]

Assuming we hold the 15-1 lead, here's updated record by starting pitchers.

 

44-26 when the BIG 5 starts.

 

Pitcher GS W L

Chris Sale 17 13-4

R Porcello 17 7-10

Pomeranz 16 10-6

Edward Rod 10 7-3

David Price 7 4-3

Brian Johnson 4 4-0

Wright 5 1-4

Vlazques 2 0-2

Kendrick 2 0-2

Fister 2 1-1

Total 82 47 35

Edited July 2, 2017 by Nick

[a700hitter]

The Yankees would have been better off if Sabathia exercised his opt out and signed elsewhere - agree or disagree?

The Yankees bid against themselves. We will never know what his market was, because the Yankees refused to part with him.

[a700hitter]

So, it's still impossible for Price opting out to ever benefit us?

 

Even if Price does well after leaving us, we could still benefit by him leaving, and it's not some minor percentage of a chance.

 

Look, I agree the chances are very slim he opts out. Very very slim, and I get the point that if he does opt out, it must mean he has probably done great for us and the market price for starters have risen considerably, but FA market prices for top FAs is not an accurate gauge of true value. History has shown that the majority of big FA signings have turned out badly for the teams signing them. You'd think that would adjust the market prices, but it hasn't. They keep going up.

teams continue to pay for past performance in the hopes that they will get some of that past value into the future. It rarely happens.

 

That's the reason I'd love to see Price bolt, even if he has been pitching like superman at age 32-33 with us.

What happens after the opt out is irrelevant. At the time of the opt out, Price will only leave if he is worth more on the open market. If he stays, it mean that we are over paying. If he leaves, it means we are losing a good deal. It is pretty straightforward.

[moonslav59]

The Yankees would have been better off if Sabathia exercised his opt out and signed elsewhere - agree or disagree?

 

For the Yanks- Yes.

 

For the Sox- No.

[moonslav59]

Price's contract is what we had to do to get him. It was no one's fault other than those that put us in a back to back last place finishes. Do I need to remind anyone of Lester fiasco?

 

Hiring of DD was a mandate by the ownership group for the baseball people to do whatever it takes to become relevant again.

 

We don't win last year without Price pitching 200+ innings. We still had to go get Pomeranz when Kelly, Buchholtz, E Rod and Wright all went through down periods.

 

He's only 1 1/2 years into his contract. Shouldn't we give him at least 3 years before we criticize him? Injuries are part of the game. It's not as though he gained 30lbs and got out of shape.

 

I just don't see the hate coming at him from all angles. His fastball touched 97 mph last game. Why tear down a player? His money is not an albatross the size of Pablo's.

 

I'm not bashing Price. i was okay with the signing. I hope he does great to finish out his 3 or 7 year deal- either way.

 

I thought he was the best SP'er to come on the FA market (next to MAYBE Scherzer) in many years. I don't blame DD at all for signing price. We needed an ace after losing Lester.

 

I don't want to pay any pitcher $31M a year from ages 34 to 37, even if the guy just won a Cy Young's in 2018, which I think Price could possibly do. He's that good (at age 32-33). It's not bashing Price to want him to opt out, so we can free up some salary space to keep our better and younger talent and maybe find one good (younger) SP'er to replace Price and Porcello. We probably will need Groome to replace the other, so we can keep Sale and others.

 

[moonslav59]

What happens after the opt out is irrelevant. At the time of the opt out, Price will only leave if he is worth more on the open market. If he stays, it mean that we are over paying. If he leaves, it means we are losing a good deal. It is pretty straightforward.

 

Not really. The open FA market for big payday players is and has never been a good value guide.

 

Just because another team overpays for Price after a great 2018 season (maybe $31M x 5 or 6 years or $33M x 4 or 5 years) does not mean we lose for watching him leave. We can do a lot with $31M... maybe better than what price projects to give after age 34. Maybe not, but never say never.

[Nick]

I'm not bashing Price. i was okay with the signing. I hope he does great to finish out his 3 or 7 year deal- either way.

 

I thought he was the best SP'er to come on the FA market (next to MAYBE Scherzer) in many years. I don't blame DD at all for signing price. We needed an ace after losing Lester.

 

I don't want to pay any pitcher $31M a year from ages 34 to 37, even if the guy just won a Cy Young's in 2018, which I think Price could possibly do. He's that good (at age 32-33). It's not bashing Price to want him to opt out, so we can free up some salary space to keep our better and younger talent and maybe find one good (younger) SP'er to replace Price and Porcello. We probably will need Groome to replace the other, so we can keep Sale and others.

 

 

I'd like to see him opt out. My only comment was good or bad, DD did what he had to and I understand why he did it. He didn't much have choice.

 

That said, his $31M would certainly come into handy in keeping young kids together. I hope we opt out. As I've said, I can see DD extending Pomeranz' contract. That's his guy.

 

ONE THING WE'VE NOT CONSIDERED IS THAT CURRENT CBA ENDS ON DEC 1, 2021. Expect luxury amount to increase.

[moonslav59]

I'd like to see him opt out. My only comment was good or bad, DD did what he had to and I understand why he did it. He didn't much have choice.

 

That said, his $31M would certainly come into handy in keeping young kids together. I hope we opt out. As I've said, I can see DD extending Pomeranz' contract. That's his guy.

 

ONE THING WE'VE NOT CONSIDERED IS THAT CURRENT CBA ENDS ON DEC 1, 2021. Expect luxury amount to increase.

 

If Pom continues to do well, being able to extend him and Sale could greatly lessen the impact of losing Price and Porcello. If Porcello keeps struggling, replacing him with an upgrade at $21M should be easy to do. If Groome can contribute soon after we lose Price and/or Porcello, we may be able to use all the saved money to extend and re-sign everyone we want and maybe sign a significant SP'er at $15-20M.

 

1) Sale extended

2) $20M starter

3) ERod

4) Pomeranz extended

5) Wright/Groome

 

Keep Betts, JBJ and Bogey

 

Hope Devers, Travis and others can contribute at minimal pay which will allow us to pay big at other positions.

 

Paying Price $31M from ages 34-37, even if he does well in those years and technically is "worth it" during years 4-7, we will likely be better off if he bolts.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

slav, you are going to have a VERY expensive team, especially with guys who are starting to see real money.

 

Mookie Betts is comfortable playing on 1 year deals until he hits FA.

Bogaerts is entirely comfortable playing on 1 yr deals as well

Bradley already made $3.6mil and with him doing well this yr, he is in line for a really nice payday this December as well.

Sale's options end after 2019.

 

By the time FA comes about, Sale could be worth $30 mil plus, Bogey $25-$30 mil plus, JBJ $20 mil plus, and Betts $30 mil plus. When you add in Price at $31 mil and Pedey still on the books, you are looking at $160 mil tied up in 6 guys, with two of them being past their primes. Long story short is you are going to lose some of this talent and with your farm being traded down and your draft pools shrinking as your team plays well, there is a strong chance for another rebuild. You just need to hope you can snag a title or two in the meantime

[a700hitter]

Not really. The open FA market for big payday players is and has never been a good value guide.

 

Just because another team overpays for Price after a great 2018 season (maybe $31M x 5 or 6 years or $33M x 4 or 5 years) does not mean we lose for watching him leave. We can do a lot with $31M... maybe better than what price projects to give after age 34. Maybe not, but never say never.

The FA market and current contracts are not the best market. They are the only market.

[moonslav59]

The FA market and current contracts are not the best market. They are the only market.

 

Not really, there is the trade market and the farm market, but we are talking what determines value. just because some other team offers Price $33M a year, does not mean we lost out by not keeping him at $31M. That's my point, and I think it is valid. I respect those who feel value is determined by the highest bidder, but losing Price to his opt out can be a win-win for us and the team that gets him, assuming he earnes $33M- which is highly unlikely based on past big FA signings.

 

The vast majority don't come close to earning their salaries, so I'm not sure why you trust big spending GMs who have long histories of failing with these type signings to "set the true value" (towards helping a team win) of a player, but to each his own.

[a700hitter]

Not really, there is the trade market and the farm market, but we are talking what determines value. just because some other team offers Price $33M a year, does not mean we lost out by not keeping him at $31M. That's my point, and I think it is valid. I respect those who feel value is determined by the highest bidder, but losing Price to his opt out can be a win-win for us and the team that gets him, assuming he earnes $33M- which is highly unlikely based on past big FA signings.

 

The vast majority don't come close to earning their salaries, so I'm not sure why you trust big spending GMs who have long histories of failing with these type signings to "set the true value" (towards helping a team win) of a player, but to each his own.

It is not just his contract but other contemporaneous contracts for starting pitchers that establish the market. Unfortunately, it is the GMs (who I hold in low regard) who establish the real market.

 

Edit: whether or not Price earns his contract has nothing to do with his market value at the time he hits the market. Past failed contracts (due to age or injury) should be factored into the current market.

Edited July 3, 2017 by a700hitter

[moonslav59]

slav, you are going to have a VERY expensive team, especially with guys who are starting to see real money.

 

Mookie Betts is comfortable playing on 1 year deals until he hits FA.

Bogaerts is entirely comfortable playing on 1 yr deals as well

Bradley already made $3.6mil and with him doing well this yr, he is in line for a really nice payday this December as well.

Sale's options end after 2019.

 

By the time FA comes about, Sale could be worth $30 mil plus, Bogey $25-$30 mil plus, JBJ $20 mil plus, and Betts $30 mil plus. When you add in Price at $31 mil and Pedey still on the books, you are looking at $160 mil tied up in 6 guys, with two of them being past their primes. Long story short is you are going to lose some of this talent and with your farm being traded down and your draft pools shrinking as your team plays well, there is a strong chance for another rebuild. You just need to hope you can snag a title or two in the meantime

 

That's the main reason I'd love for Price to opt out. I doubt it happens, but if it does, it would be good for us for at least two reasons.

 

1) It will mean he pitched very well for us from now to the end of 2018.

2) It will mean we can keep at least one more of the guys you listed as having pending mega deals. One in his prime- not past it.

 

Losing Porcello, HRam and panda will help us keep another one or two, assuming we can repalce them with in house cheap solutaions like Devers, Travis and Groome.

 

If we reset the luxury tax this year, we can afford to go $19M over for a few years without losing draft picks or slot money through penalties. $19M might be close to enough to keep JBJ. Plus, the luxury tax limit goes up a little every year.

 

BTW, we are currently under the luxury limit despite paying 7 guys close to $140M. 3 of them are not doing all that well (Pablo, HRam and Porcello), so $160M tied up in 6 productive players could be doable considering the above changing factors I listed.

 

I'm not saying we can keep all 6. I am a "cliff dweller". I do think we can stay competitive beyond the 3-4 year window, if Price opts out, or we get exceptional play out of Devers, Travis, Groome and maybe Pom replaces Porcello well enough as our number 2 or 3 starter going forward (at less than Porcello cost).

[a700hitter]

Whether you would prefer to move on from Price has no relation to the fact that the opt out clause operates in fact (not in theory) to maximize value for the player in the marketplace. It doesn't benefit the Red Sox value-wise whether or not it is exercised.

[moonslav59]

Whether you would prefer to move on from Price has no relation to the fact that the opt out clause operates in fact (not in theory) to maximize value for the player in the marketplace. It doesn't benefit the Red Sox value-wise whether or not it is exercised.

 

I've said over an over that I seriously doubt he opts out, but if he does, it is possible for Price to get what he wants (more money or more years) elsewhere, and for us to benefit by him leaving. I could care less if some other GM values him at $40M, if he leaves us at age 34 and we save $31M, we gain not lose, or at least could gain.

[Spudboy]

I've said over an over that I seriously doubt he opts out, but if he does, it is possible for Price to get what he wants (more money or more years) elsewhere, and for us to benefit by him leaving. I could care less if some other GM values him at $40M, if he leaves us at age 34 and we save $31M, we gain not lose, or at least could gain.

 

We also lose a TOR guy and have to pay another guy to hopefully replace his value.

 

So that is a gain? Okay.

 

Mas Tequila.

[a700hitter]

I've said over an over that I seriously doubt he opts out, but if he does, it is possible for Price to get what he wants (more money or more years) elsewhere, and for us to benefit by him leaving. I could care less if some other GM values him at $40M, if he leaves us at age 34 and we save $31M, we gain not lose, or at least could gain.

If we benefit from him leaving , it will be for a reason other than market value. It might be because we have enough starting pitching and need hitting or because Price is a toxic clubhouse personality, but the team will not be benefiting from a value perspective. From a preference standpoint, it might be desireable for you to move on from Price, but there is no corresponding value benefit.

[Spudboy]

"Nothin' from nothin' leaves nothin."

[a700hitter]

"Nothin' from nothin' leaves nothin."

"You gotta have somethin."

[moonslav59]

...By the time FA comes about, Sale could be worth $30 mil plus, Bogey $25-$30 mil plus, JBJ $20 mil plus, and Betts $30 mil plus. When you add in Price at $31 mil and Pedey still on the books, you are looking at $160 mil tied up in 6 guys, with two of them being past their primes. Long story short is you are going to lose some of this talent and with your farm being traded down and your draft pools shrinking as your team plays well, there is a strong chance for another rebuild. You just need to hope you can snag a title or two in the meantime.

 

Let's assume Price stays, as he almost certainly will. he should still be a decent pitcher from ages 34-37. Maybe not worth $31M but perhaps $25M year 4 to $10-15M year 7. It's not a total loss like Pablo is right now.

 

Let's say we can get one of JBJ, Betts or Bogey (or even Sale) to extend before free agency. We give them security and maybe a little more up front money at the expense of a little off the back end. They end up making the same money as they would by waiting for free agency, but we benefit by slightly lowering the luxury tax cost by including arb year levels in the total contract. This might be easier said than done, so let's assume we can't get anyone to bite.

 

Assume we lose Pablo after 2019 and HRam after 2018 or 2019. We don't replace Porcello (after 2019), but maybe we keep Pom at a reasonable cost.

 

(luxury tax dollars)

 

$31M Price 5 more years after this (through 2022)

$14M Pedey 4 more years (through 2021)

I guess we could trade Pedey at some point, but I'm assuming we have $45M tied up for these two for a long time.

 

That leaves...

Pomeranz (payday 2019)

Kimbrel (payday 2019)

Sale (payday 2020)

Bogey (payday 2020)

Porcello (payday 2020)

Bradley (payday 2021)

Betts (payday 2021)

 

The overlap of Pedey and Betts/JBJ is only one year. maybe we bite the bullet taht year and take a mega penalty on the luxury tax and the $20M or over extreme penalty. Maybe not.

 

Estimate paydays:

 

2019: (3+ year deals)

$18M Kinbrell

$16M Pomeranz (assuming he does well and earns this)

 

2020:

$33M Sale

$27M Bogey

(Let Porcello go)

 

2021:

$33M Betts

$23M JBJ

 

That's $195M for 8 players. The luxury tax goes up and we can go over by $19M. that still leave some money for fill-in players and productive, promoted prospects.

 

It's doubtful we keep all 8, so let's say we trade or lose Bogey or Pedey, or we let Kimbrel or Pom walk. Maybe we'd get it down to $180M or so for 7. Maybe that's not doable either and we have to let another go, so we're at about $160M/6 players. We'd still have a nice core to stay out of last place, and maybe these international signings can be ready by 2022 or 2023. It's going to be very very hard, and that's why I'm a "cliff dweller", but I don't see us being so desperate and so projected to be "out of it" from 2020 or 2021 to 2023 or 2024 that we want to trade Devers or Groome for a slightly better chance at a ring this year.

 

Edited July 3, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

If we benefit from him leaving , it will be for a reason other than market value. It might be because we have enough starting pitching and need hitting or because Price is a toxic clubhouse personality, but the team will not be benefiting from a value perspective. From a preference standpoint, it might be desireable for you to move on from Price, but there is no corresponding value benefit.

 

No 34 year old pitcher is worth $31M for 4 years, even if some clown GM offers him more.

[a700hitter]

No 34 year old pitcher is worth $31M for 4 years, even if some clown GM offers him more.

The market isn't set by one 34 year old pitcher or one clown GM that offers him $31 million/ year.

[moonslav59]

The market isn't set by one 34 year old pitcher or one clown GM that offers him $31 million/ year.

 

FA market does not equal true value (to me and many others anyway). I get the argument that you are worth what someone pays you, but history shows big FA signings do not, for the most part, bring back the value expected.

 

I think we've beaten this issue to death several times over. Let's agree to disagree and move on. Chances are Price never comes close to opting out, so we're wasting out time discussing a moot point.

[SoxHop]

The market isn't set by one 34 year old pitcher or one clown GM that offers him $31 million/ year.

 

Wait a minute..., you would right now offer Price 30 mil a year for 2019 to 2023?

[a700hitter]

FA market does not equal true value (to me and many others anyway). I get the argument that you are worth what someone pays you, but history shows big FA signings do not, for the most part, bring back the value expected.

 

I think we've beaten this issue to death several times over. Let's agree to disagree and move on. Chances are Price never comes close to opting out, so we're wasting out time discussing a moot point.

The Free Agent market both reflects and contributes to establishing market value. It is not the only data that establishes market value. As I said earlier, other contemporaneous non free agent contracts would also be taken into account. Market value is fluid, but it is established by what "Clown GMs" are willing to pay for certain assets. That is real market value. Any other measure is a fiction in one or more aspects. If you think an opt out clause is meant to benefit anyone other than the party with the option, you are mistaken. It is designed to benefit only the player.

[a700hitter]

Wait a minute..., you would right now offer Price 30 mil a year for 2019 to 2023?

Did I say that or any thing approaching that? Giggling.

[moonslav59]

Wait a minute..., you would right now offer Price 30 mil a year for 2019 to 2023?

 

But somehow, if we were able to get out of having to offer that, we can only lose and "never" win.