A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Emp9]

B. The immediateweakness is the bullpen. In particular Middle Relief. I like Kelly and Ross, but I'm hoping our starters go deep enough into games that we don't have to go to the well too many times. That and with projected WAR, SP WAR we got the Guardians by some, but their BP WAR still puts their entire pitching staff ahead as a whole. I don't put all my chips in to projected WAR... but it's worth noting.

[moonslav59]

B. The immediateweakness is the bullpen. In particular Middle Relief. I like Kelly and Ross, but I'm hoping our starters go deep enough into games that we don't have to go to the well too many times. That and with projected WAR, SP WAR we got the Guardians by some, but their BP WAR still puts their entire pitching staff ahead as a whole. I don't put all my chips in to projected WAR... but it's worth noting.

 

I agree on the pen as the apparent weakest point. BTW, weakest does not mean weak.

 

I'd put 3B second.

 

I'm not worried about catching with 3 choices in the fold.

 

fangraphs has these WAR projections for the Guardians:

 

4.9 Kluber

4.5 Carrasco

3.3 Salazar

1.6 Bauer

1.4 Tomlin

0.7 Clebinger

0.5 Cooney

0.3 Merritt

0.2 Anderson

 

Pen

1.2 C Allen

2.7 Miller

0.5 Otero

0.4 B Shaw

0.4 McAllister

 

Sox

4.8 Sale

4.5 Price

3.6 Porcello

2.0 Pomeranz

1.7 Rodriquez

0.9 Wright

 

Pen

1.5 Kimbrel

1.1 Kelly

0.4 Thornburg

0.4 Ross

0.3 Smith

0.2 Barnes

0.1 Elias

 

22.6 Guardians

21.8 Red Sox

 

[Dojji]

That seems extremely low for Wright who was good for 2.1 bWAR last year, was our second or third best starter by most metrics, and has always been productive when given a starting role.

[moonslav59]

That seems extremely low for Wright who was good for 2.1 bWAR last year, was our second or third best starter by most metrics, and has always been productive when given a starting role.

 

They only gave him 97 IP, so that's part of the reason for the low WAR projection. Many projections are lower than last year's numbers. That might be another part of it. No sustained high WAR numbers over the years is maybe another factor.

 

I like Wright a lot. I'd bet the over on this projection. I might even bet the over on a 1.5 projection, if he looks healthy in ST'ing.

 

[harmony]

They only gave him 97 IP, so that's part of the reason for the low WAR projection. Many projections are lower than last year's numbers. That might be another part of it. No sustained high WAR numbers over the years is maybe another factor.

 

I like Wright a lot. I'd bet the over on this projection. I might even bet the over on a 1.5 projection, if he looks healthy in ST'ing.

 

Steamer600, which assumes 200 innings for each starting pitcher, projects Steven Wright with a 2017 WAR of 2.0:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d

[moonslav59]

Steamer600, which assumes 200 innings for each starting pitcher, projects Steven Wright with a 2017 WAR of 2.0:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d

 

I was betting on 1.5 at about 100 IP. I'd take the over on 2.0 at 200 IP for sure.

[harmony]

I was betting on 1.5 at about 100 IP. I'd take the over on 2.0 at 200 IP for sure.

ZiPS projects Steven Wright with a 2017 WAR of 2.0 in 122 innings:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

[notin]

That seems extremely low for Wright who was good for 2.1 bWAR last year, was our second or third best starter by most metrics, and has always been productive when given a starting role.

 

It's low for Wright because it's high for Pomeranz. This protectionist assumed Pomeranz would get the bulk of the starting opportunities over Wright, which may or may not be true...

[Dojji]

Steamer600, which assumes 200 innings for each starting pitcher, projects Steven Wright with a 2017 WAR of 2.0:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d

 

I'd be very happy to accept that, but I honestly think that if Wright is healthy all year, that's a bit low as well. When a guy's only had one full season, it's really hard to project him statistically, I really think Steven Wright may just open some people's eyes this year. Don't forget, Wright was our leader in IP/GS with a super impressive 6.5 IP per start, so over a full 34 starts that actually projects to a wildly optimistic 223 1/3 IP.

 

I'm not saying it's definitely going to be that of course, but that's the inning load he was on pace for last year, so with a full healthy season that kind of inning load is well within his demonstrated ability. If he could match that with a performance similar to the one he put up last year on an K/BB, WHIP, and BABIP fronts, he might put up an ace type year.

 

But 200 innings of low 4 or high 3 ERA is absolutely acceptable, especially with what ought to be at least a solid offense, and I would be happy to see him cement his career by delivering a good solid #2 starter performance, which is what that would be.

 

I think it would be absurd to relegate that kind of workhorse to the pen, and am extremely confident that Wright will crack the rotation despite the stiff competition. That level of durability can be impossible to find, no sane management team will turn their nose up at it when they might just already have it. People rant and rave about E-Rod's potential but to be honest, Wright might be over 30, but I honestly believe he demonstrated that his potential is not inferior, even if it is tied to the knuckler.

Edited January 17, 2017 by Dojji

[moonslav59]

ZiPS projects Steven Wright with a 2017 WAR of 2.0 in 122 innings:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

 

That's about what I might expect.

[moonslav59]

I'd be very happy to accept that, but I honestly think that if Wright is healthy all year, that's a bit low as well. When a guy's only had one full season, it's really hard to project him statistically, I really think Steven Wright may just open some people's eyes this year. Don't forget, Wright was our leader in IP/GS with a super impressive 6.5 IP per start, so over a full 34 starts that actually projects to a wildly optimistic 223 1/3 IP.

 

I'm not saying it's definitely going to be that of course, but that's the inning load he was on pace for last year, so with a full healthy season that kind of inning load is well within his demonstrated ability. If he could match that with a performance similar to the one he put up last year on an K/BB, WHIP, and BABIP fronts, he might put up an ace type year.

 

But 200 innings of low 4 or high 3 ERA is absolutely acceptable, especially with what ought to be at least a solid offense, and I would be happy to see him cement his career by delivering a good solid #2 starter performance, which is what that would be.

 

I think it would be absurd to relegate that kind of workhorse to the pen, and am extremely confident that Wright will crack the rotation despite the stiff competition. That level of durability can be impossible to find, no sane management team will turn their nose up at it when they might just already have it. People rant and rave about E-Rod's potential but to be honest, Wright might be over 30, but I honestly believe he demonstrated that his potential is not inferior, even if it is tied to the knuckler.

 

Well said, but I'd put ERod slightly ahead of Pomeranz, and since Pom has extensive experience in the pen, that's the way I'd go.

 

It's a close call all around, and in my opinion, the two doing the best will end up with more starts.

[Emp9]

Yes, immediate perceived weakness or possible weakness. We don't know it's a weakness at all yet, true.

[Emp9]

Wright being a knuckleballer, I don't consider 32 being that old. In knuckleball years his arm is like 28.

[moonslav59]

Yes, immediate perceived weakness or possible weakness. We don't know it's a weakness at all yet, true.

 

fangraph's projections have us with the 4th best offense (Cubs, LAD, Hou) and 6th best pitching (LAD, Cubs, Cle, NYM, Wsh). My guess is we'll be a top 10 defense.

 

I think we can absorb one or two problem areas and still make the playoffs.

[Emp9]

fangraph's projections have us with the 4th best offense (Cubs, LAD, Hou) and 6th best pitching (LAD, Cubs, Cle, NYM, Wsh). My guess is we'll be a top 10 defense.

 

I think we can absorb one or two problem areas and still make the playoffs.

 

Yeah I think we make the Playoffs with relative ease. All winter, my mind has been how well we match up after that. Left side of the infield needs to prove themselves, but on the whole I love our defense. I wouldn't put it past XB to make improvements on last season or Panda to be at the very least sufficient. Our offense has lost some power (Papi) for better defense at 1B, but I don't see a huge drop in offense. Any slight drop in offense might not amount to much of a meaningful difference. Less blow-out wins doesn't mean they aren't still wins. But for our starting rotation, it's finally quality instead of quantity don't you think?

[Slasher9]

Yeah I think we make the Playoffs with relative ease. All winter, my mind has been how well we match up after that. Left side of the infield needs to prove themselves, but on the whole I love our defense. I wouldn't put it past XB to make improvements on last season or Panda to be at the very least sufficient. Our offense has lost some power (Papi) for better defense at 1B, but I don't see a huge drop in offense. Any slight drop in offense might not amount to much of a meaningful difference. Less blow-out wins doesn't mean they aren't still wins. But for our starting rotation, it's finally quality instead of quantity don't you think?

AWESOME post Emp. this just got me very hype for the 2017 season. love it. count me IN.

[moonslav59]

Yeah I think we make the Playoffs with relative ease. All winter, my mind has been how well we match up after that. Left side of the infield needs to prove themselves, but on the whole I love our defense. I wouldn't put it past XB to make improvements on last season or Panda to be at the very least sufficient. Our offense has lost some power (Papi) for better defense at 1B, but I don't see a huge drop in offense. Any slight drop in offense might not amount to much of a meaningful difference. Less blow-out wins doesn't mean they aren't still wins. But for our starting rotation, it's finally quality instead of quantity don't you think?

 

YES! That is what I have clamored for years about: quality vs quantity, but I will add that our quantity is fine down to the 6th slot.

 

I was surprised Bogey seemingly took a step backwards on defense last year. It looked like he had improved a lot from 2014 to 2015. Let's hope 2016 was just a blip on an improvement curve upwards on defense.

 

Pablo's D is almost more of an unknown than his O.

 

We are plus or plus plus everywhere else on defense.

[moonslav59]

Some winter league news from soxprospects.com...

 

Vazquez had another productive week by going 3 for 8 with a triple, a walk, and two RBI. His two-run triple in game two of the finals helped Santurce to a 6-3 victory. Vazquez was the DH in two of his three games this past week, catching the middle contest.

 

Castillo went 3 for 14 with a walk and three runs scored, including a 1-for-7 showing so far in the finals.

 

Abad pitched in just one game this past week and did not allow a run while striking out two in one inning of work.

 

Hanley Ramirez started all six games this past week for Licey but struggled with a 3-for-23 performance. He did, however, launch a solo home run and take three walks.

 

Sandy Leon appeared just once this past week for Aragua, who lost a one-game playoff to advance from the first-round of the playoffs to the semifinals. He was 0 for 3.

[moonslav59]

soxprospects has an interesting page on future Sox roster projections. (Please note the disclaimer):

 

http://www.soxprospects.com/future.htm

 

They have this for our 2018 roster (assuming no additions to the roster):

 

C Vazquez (No Leon)

1B Ramriez

2B Pedroia

3B Devers

SS Bogaerts

LF Beni

CF JBJ

RF Betts

DH Sandoval (Depending on how well Pablo plays this year, we may see him at 1B and HR at DH.)

Bench- Swihart, Travis, Hernandez, Holt & Castillo

 

They have Wright in the pen.

Edited January 17, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

2017 Sox R-L Splits in 2016 by OPS

(PA noted, if under 85/under 15 not listed)

---2015 OPS in parenthesis

 

Vs RHP

.984 Beni (85)

.917 Betts (.813)

.902 Bradley (.791)

.827 Pedroia (.785)

.796 Ramirez (.720)

.785 Bogaerts (.735)

.766 Young (.585 w Yanks)

.764 Leon (.569)

.762 Holt (.701)

.669 Rutledge (37) (.637)

.668 Hernandez (47)

.629 Swihart (67) (.757)

.527 Vazquez

 

vs LHPs

1.097 Ramirez (.710)

1.062 Leon (81) (.118)

.999 Young (83) (.972 w Yanks)

.873 Bogey (.892)

.859 Rutledge (19) (.748)

.814 Betts (.843)

.812 Pedey (.834)

.804 Vazquez (40)

.665 JBJ (.918)

.429 Beni (33)

.350 Holt (45) (.807)

[moonslav59]

2015-2016 combined L-R Splits

--145+ PAs unless noted

 

vs RHP

.984 Beni (85)

.870 Betts

.871 JBJ

.812 Pedey

.782 Moreland (w TX)

.762 Bogey

.766 HanRam

.727 Holt

.733 Pablo

.727 Swihart

.705 Leon

.668 Hernandez (47)

.665 Young (BOS + NYY)

.650 Rutledge (96)

.527 Vazquez

 

vs LHP

.980 Young (5th best in MLB among 144 players with 250+ PAs vs LHPs)

.916 HanRam

.883 Bogey

.829 Betts

.822 Pedey

.804 Vazquez (40)

.795 Rutledge (45)

.759 Leon (117)

.748 JBJ

.725 Moreland (w TX)

.684 Holt

.673 Swihart (98)

.465 Pablo

.429 Beni (33)

[moonslav59]

2015-2016 combined L-R Splits

--145+ PAs unless noted

 

vs RHP

.984 Beni (85)

.870 Betts

.871 JBJ

.812 Pedey

.782 Moreland (w TX)

.762 Bogey

.766 HanRam

.727 Holt

.733 Pablo

.727 Swihart

.705 Leon

.668 Hernandez (47)

.665 Young (BOS + NYY)

.650 Rutledge (96)

.527 Vazquez

 

vs LHP

.980 Young (5th best in MLB among 144 players with 250+ PAs vs LHPs)

.916 HanRam

.883 Bogey

.829 Betts

.822 Pedey

.804 Vazquez (40)

.795 Rutledge (45)

.759 Leon (117)

.748 JBJ

.725 Moreland (w TX)

.684 Holt

.673 Swihart (98)

.465 Pablo

.429 Beni (33)

 

Looking at these numbers, I see a few things that may indicate these moves:

 

1) Young needs to start every game vs LHPs and should be in the top 5 line-up slots.

2) Moreland's numbers vs RHP are actually pretty decent, so the Young-Moreland platoon makes a lot of sense (Young DH vs LHPs and Moreland 1B vs RHPs with HanRam playing 1B vs LHPs and DH vs RHPs and at NL Parks).

3) JBJ should bat higher vs RHPs.

4) Bogey should bat higher vs RHPs.

5) Small sample sizes, but it appears Swihart hits RHPs better than Leon & Vaz, but the opposite is true vs LHPs. (Vaz is way better vs LHPs than RHPs.)

 

I might go with this as my line-up template:

vs RHPs:

1 Beni

2 Pedey

3 Betts

4 HanRam

5 JBJ

6 Bogey

7 Pablo

8 Moreland

9 Leon (Swihart)

 

vs LHPs:

1 Pedey

2 Bogey

3 Betts

4 HanRam

5 Young

6 Beni*

7 JBJ

8 Leon/Vaz

9 Rutledge/Pablo

*Keeping an eye on Beni's numbers vs LHPs

 

Edited January 18, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Is this what you think Farrell will start with?

 

1) Pedey

2) Bogaerts

3) Betts

4) HanRam

5) JBJ/Young

6) Moreland/JBJ

7) Pablo

8) Leon-Vaz

9) Beni

 

[Slasher9]

Is this what you think Farrell will start with?

 

1) Pedey

2) Bogaerts

3) Betts

4) HanRam

5) JBJ/Young

6) Moreland/JBJ

7) Pablo

8) Leon-Vaz

9) Beni

 

 

100%

[moonslav59]

100%

 

Maybe, if Beni looks real good, we go to this and "lengthen the line-up":

 

1) Beni

2) Pedey

3) Betts

4) HanRam

5) JBJ/Young

6) Bogey

7) Moreland/JBJ

8) Pablo

9) Leon-Vaz

 

I wouldn't mind seeing Pedey up 5th:

1) Beni

2) Bogey

3) Betts

4) HanRam

5) Pedey

6) JBJ/Young

7) Moreland/JBJ

8) Pablo

9) Leon-Vaz

[Dojji]

TBPH, I am willing to predict that the third baseman we will be fielding by the end of 2018 is not on this roster or in this organization right now.

[mvp 78]

TBPH, I am willing to predict that the third baseman we will be fielding by the end of 2018 is not on this roster or in this organization right now.

 

Not a Devers fan?

[moonslav59]

TBPH, I am willing to predict that the third baseman we will be fielding by the end of 2018 is not on this roster or in this organization right now.

 

I have that feeling about 1B.

[harmony]

The Red Sox add nine non-roster invitees to Spring Training camp:

 

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox add nine non-roster invitees to Spring Training camp:

 

 

Castillo and Craig are no surprise.

 

Devers and Travis are going to get a good look but nothing brewing for an opening day slot.

 

The others are just window dressing- split squad fill-ins.