Yankees Off Season Thread

[Kimmi]

I'd like to see none in pinstripes to be honest. We're trying to get under the cap to reset penalties before splurging on the 2018 FA class

 

Which is what I thought the Yankees were trying to do - reset their penalty. Signing Encarnacion wouldn't make much sense.

[a700hitter]

35 dingers and 100 plus RBI makes sense.

[Spudboy]

35 dingers and 100 plus RBI makes sense.

 

It does to me.

 

But I can understand going cheap now for the near future as well.

[jacksonianmarch]

A 65% penalty is one issue. Also, we're loaded with kids. Time to see if they can play and reload for 2018-2019

[moonslav59]

I'd like to see none in pinstripes to be honest. We're trying to get under the cap to reset penalties before splurging on the 2018 FA class

 

What's their luxury tax number now? Not their 2017 salary, but luxury tax number.

[jacksonianmarch]

They're at 50-60% right now. They go down below the lux tax and they'll reset

[jacksonianmarch]

The Yankees have a projected arb payroll of $21 mil. They have $26.5 mil of retained contracts (ARod and McCann). They have $120 mil of active salary. This is after the Holliday signing. So their payroll loosely sits at $167.5 mil. I assume they will be spending about $15-$18 mil on a bullpen piece or pieces. I would also assume we add a low budget starter probably in the $10 mil range. I don't forsee any other offensive upgrades. That puts us close to the $200 mil range for 2017. But after this yr....

 

CC and his $25 mil

ARod and his $21 mil

Holliday and his $13 mil

Clippard and his $6 mil

 

will all go away. That's a further reduction of $65 mil in time for the lux tax to rise to $195 mil-ish

 

Then things get even more fluid after 2018 with Gardner and Headley coming off the books. That's another $25 mil in salary for guys who aren't giving great production.

Edited December 5, 2016 by jacksonianmarch

[moonslav59]

They're at 50-60% right now. They go down below the lux tax and they'll reset

 

That's a lot.

 

Also, remember the luxury tax is set on the average cost of each contract- not the seasonal salary.

[jacksonianmarch]

Exactly, which is why ARod is only $21 and not $25 mil. His year suspension dropped his AAV. Regardless, they all drop off the map after 2017

[moonslav59]

Exactly, which is why ARod is only $21 and not $25 mil. His year suspension dropped his AAV. Regardless, they all drop off the map after 2017

 

It took a while, but good management has finally gotten a grip on the budget.

[jacksonianmarch]

Cashman isn't afraid to spend, but he was definitely forced into extending CC and ARod. Thankfully, those follies will be finished in 2017

[Kimmi]

Cashman isn't afraid to spend, but he was definitely forced into extending CC and ARod. Thankfully, those follies will be finished in 2017

 

I have always thought that Cashman was a good GM, and that he could do a much better job if some of the higher ups stopped butting in.

[Meh]

Seems like we are in fact done, as Cashman didn't get any offers he liked for Gardner or Headley. I don't think we'll win the world series, but this isn't a bad team. Obviously, I wouldn't mind if we had some good production but still dropped games and made some more great trades at the deadline. Tanaka, Pineda, and Gardner could potentially get some strong returns this summers at the deadline. Even Clippard or CC could fetch something.

 

CF- Gardner

2B- Castro

1B- Bird

C- Sanchez

DH- Holliday

LF- Ellsbury

RF- Judge

3B- Headley

SS- Didi

 

Bench - Romine, Austin, Hicks, and Refsnyder

 

Tanaka, Pineda, CC, Servino, Cessa

 

Chapman, Betances, Clippard, Heller/Holder, Sherve, Bleier, Mitchell.

 

 

I bolded some guys I could see being moved or people I'd like to see moved this year.

[moonslav59]

Seems like we are in fact done, as Cashman didn't get any offers he liked for Gardner or Headley. I don't think we'll win the world series, but this isn't a bad team. Obviously, I wouldn't mind if we had some good production but still dropped games and made some more great trades at the deadline. Tanaka, Pineda, and Gardner could potentially get some strong returns this summers at the deadline. Even Clippard or CC could fetch something.

 

CF- Gardner

2B- Castro

1B- Bird

C- Sanchez

DH- Holliday

LF- Ellsbury

RF- Judge

3B- Headley

SS- Didi

 

Bench - Romine, Austin, Hicks, and Refsnyder

 

Tanaka, Pineda, CC, Servino, Cessa

 

Chapman, Betances, Clippard, Heller/Holder, Sherve, Bleier, Mitchell.

 

 

I bolded some guys I could see being moved or people I'd like to see moved this year.

 

Good assessment. I think there's a good chance a few of the bolded guys will be doing well enough to bring you even more young talent.

[jacksonianmarch]

slav, I am intrigued to see how we perform this year. And Meh, I honestly don't think Severino wins a job out of ST. I think the kid needs to build his confidence again in AAA. Chad Green has a really strong chance to win the job out of ST if he isn't hurt. We have a lot of others guys capable of starting as well, including Jordan Montgomery and Bryan Mitchell. One thing is for sure, aside from CC and Shreve, about everyone who will take the mound for us will have power in their arm. Even Tanaka can run it up there into the mid 90s when he wants to. This is a shake out kind of year for us, and if we break right, we could be really good. I think the likelihood is that not everything shakes out well and we have a so-so non playoff season. I think our offense will be an improvement. No more forcing ABs onto two guys in power spots who put together a -2.3 WAR. Also, Sanchez for McCann looks like an improvement as well. Beltran down to Judge is a dropoff in offense alone. Who knows with the rest. I think it will be interesting to follow them. I predict this team to be on the fringes of a WC spot all year and finish about 2-3 games out by end of the season. I see another mid 80s win season, probably 84 wins

[moonslav59]

slav, I am intrigued to see how we perform this year. And Meh, I honestly don't think Severino wins a job out of ST. I think the kid needs to build his confidence again in AAA. Chad Green has a really strong chance to win the job out of ST if he isn't hurt. We have a lot of others guys capable of starting as well, including Jordan Montgomery and Bryan Mitchell. One thing is for sure, aside from CC and Shreve, about everyone who will take the mound for us will have power in their arm. Even Tanaka can run it up there into the mid 90s when he wants to. This is a shake out kind of year for us, and if we break right, we could be really good. I think the likelihood is that not everything shakes out well and we have a so-so non playoff season. I think our offense will be an improvement. No more forcing ABs onto two guys in power spots who put together a -2.3 WAR. Also, Sanchez for McCann looks like an improvement as well. Beltran down to Judge is a dropoff in offense alone. Who knows with the rest. I think it will be interesting to follow them. I predict this team to be on the fringes of a WC spot all year and finish about 2-3 games out by end of the season. I see another mid 80s win season, probably 84 wins

 

I've been preaching for years that the bloated contracts and aging Yankee roster was going to catch up. It took a lot longer to "fall" than I expected, and it wasn't a bad a fall as I expected, but it's taken way shorter for you guys to look promising again.

 

If I were Cashman, I'd look to sign some guys to one year deals with the idea of trading them at the deadline for more prospects.

 

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Slav, the problem with that is we'd be giving valuable playing time to a veteran rather than developing a rook. We have Austin and Bird for 1b and to spell Holliday if he's hurt at DH. We have Judge, Williams and Frazier likely to have a lot of PT in the OF, especially with the fragility of Ells and Gardner. Torres is going to start the year at AA, which means he isn't too far away either. Even our catching depth is solid with Sanchez and Romine in the bigs and Higashiika waiting at AAA. For the rotation, we have 3 proven big league starters. Then we have Cessa, Green, Severino, Montgomery, Mitchell, Lail and Adams all big league ready now. Then you have to consider that our AA rotation is absolutely stacked with Acevedo, Kaprielian, and Sheffield. Even in the pen, we have a lot of hard throwing two pitch guys waiting for their shot in the majors. So adding a vet for the purposes of trading doesn't make any sense, especially with the fact that we already landed Holliday.

[Northern Star]

awesome ST caps, bro. Might get myself a couple.

[Northern Star]

wait...Jeter is married?? Since when?

[moonslav59]

Slav, the problem with that is we'd be giving valuable playing time to a veteran rather than developing a rook. We have Austin and Bird for 1b and to spell Holliday if he's hurt at DH. We have Judge, Williams and Frazier likely to have a lot of PT in the OF, especially with the fragility of Ells and Gardner. Torres is going to start the year at AA, which means he isn't too far away either. Even our catching depth is solid with Sanchez and Romine in the bigs and Higashiika waiting at AAA. For the rotation, we have 3 proven big league starters. Then we have Cessa, Green, Severino, Montgomery, Mitchell, Lail and Adams all big league ready now. Then you have to consider that our AA rotation is absolutely stacked with Acevedo, Kaprielian, and Sheffield. Even in the pen, we have a lot of hard throwing two pitch guys waiting for their shot in the majors. So adding a vet for the purposes of trading doesn't make any sense, especially with the fact that we already landed Holliday.

 

Makes sense. I meant to say trade them (one year signings), if you are out of it.

 

I think the Yanks could surprise this year.

[jacksonianmarch]

I won't get my hopes up. I know what it means to hand over the guts of your team to unproven young players. Some will rise, some will fall. If all things click, we have the talent to make the playoffs. Seeing as most times they don't, I'm expecting a .500 ish club. We have two lean years ahead of us if Cash does things the right way. I'm intrigued about the process

[Kimmi]

Pineda could be a difference maker for you guys. He was one of the unluckiest pitchers last year.

 

Maybe if he wore his cap straight, he'd have better results...

[Northern Star]

Pineda could be a difference maker for you guys. He was one of the unluckiest pitchers last year.

 

Maybe if he wore his cap straight, he'd have better results...

 

^ fashion police.

[Kimmi]

^ fashion police.

 

The crooked cap drives me crazy.

[Northern Star]

The crooked cap drives me crazy.

 

It doesnt bother me as much as beards and long hair.

[jacksonianmarch]

Pineda's problems are between his ears. He seemed to get two outs in a flash then allow 4 runs and then dominate the rest of the way. He has the combination of stuff and command that most teams would drool over. If he has another mid 4's ERA, look for him to be a massive overpay on the market because someone thinks they can "fix him"

[jacksonianmarch]

To back that up, 2 months into the season, hitters were hitting .440 with a 1.370 OPS with 2 outs

[moonslav59]

To back that up, 2 months into the season, hitters were hitting .440 with a 1.370 OPS with 2 outs

 

To think he still put up decent numbers despite that issue (or lapse).

 

Fix that, and you got yourself a winner.

[Kimmi]

Pineda's problems are between his ears. He seemed to get two outs in a flash then allow 4 runs and then dominate the rest of the way. He has the combination of stuff and command that most teams would drool over. If he has another mid 4's ERA, look for him to be a massive overpay on the market because someone thinks they can "fix him"

 

His problems may be between his ears, but he was still the victim of a decent amount of bad luck. In terms of deserved run average, he ranks right up there with the 'aces'.

[jacksonianmarch]

Kimmi, it was the weirdest thing. He'd mow down the first two hitters and then lose focus. 97 on the black was now 93 down the middle. 88mph slider out of the zone was a 82mph hanger in the zone. He'd eventually get out of the inning and start the next one gangbusters as well. His FIP was solid and his ERA after the first two mysteriously bad months was 3.83. He's a better pitcher than 2016 showed and maybe he is poised for a big year in his walk year. I wont be holding my breath, though