Swihart To Undergo Ankle Surgery

[Spudboy]

Really? You're going to use one example from history?

 

Come on man; you know Swi's value is higher than Salty's was back then.

 

The Sox had a major boner for Salty. I imagine it was the promise of power?

 

Swihart is clearly the stronger prospect of the two in just about every way not called long ball power.

 

It's not even close. And anyone who has watched him play and particularly bat has to see that this kid is special.

 

I'm sure any team and all scouts would love to have him.

[cp176]

The Sox had a major boner for Salty. I imagine it was the promise of power?

 

Swihart is clearly the stronger prospect of the two in just about every way not called long ball power.

 

It's not even close. And anyone who has watched him play and particularly bat has to see that this kid is special.

 

I'm sure any team and all scouts would love to have him.

 

I think that this is the problem - good one to have - with many of our younger players. Most teams would absolutely love to have quite a few of them. We aren't so bad in the positions they play that we actually have to count on them but they may still be so good that we don't want to just give them away.

[moonslav59]

The Sox had a major boner for Salty. I imagine it was the promise of power?

 

But the package sent was flaccid.

[harmony]

The Sox had a major boner for Salty. I imagine it was the promise of power?

 

Swihart is clearly the stronger prospect of the two in just about every way not called long ball power.

 

It's not even close. And anyone who has watched him play and particularly bat has to see that this kid is special.

 

I'm sure any team and all scouts would love to have him.

Compare the minor league slash lines of Blake Swihart and Jarrod Saltalamacchia:

 

BS 1466 PA, .283/.340/.418/.758

JS 1961 PA, .269/.363/.455/.818

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=swihar000bla

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=saltal001jar

[moonslav59]

Compare the minor league slash lines of Blake Swihart and Jarrod Saltalamacchia:

 

BS 1466 PA, .283/.340/.418/.758

JS 1961 PA, .269/.363/.455/.818

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=swihar000bla

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=saltal001jar

 

You didn't answer my question.

 

Do you really think Swihart has close to the same trade value Salty had when we traded for him?

[sk7326]

The Sox had a major boner for Salty. I imagine it was the promise of power?

 

Swihart is clearly the stronger prospect of the two in just about every way not called long ball power.

 

It's not even close. And anyone who has watched him play and particularly bat has to see that this kid is special.

 

I'm sure any team and all scouts would love to have him.

 

At that point they were amassing interesting catcher prospects - Salty could hit and could play the position okay. Since catching is so hard to come by, getting as much potential as possible makes sense.

[sk7326]

On some basic level, Swihart is the best chance to emerge into something special at the position. Vasquez might be limited by his bat (a limitation which could still be quite good) and Leon (though I like him) is essentially betting on about 6 weeks of MVP caliber work. (against a far larger body of work as Sandy Leon - including September and beyond this year)

 

The Sox really ought to let Swihart catch - and let it ride. Either way, coming off of an injury - you'd be selling low on him.

[Spudboy]

Compare the minor league slash lines of Blake Swihart and Jarrod Saltalamacchia:

 

BS 1466 PA, .283/.340/.418/.758

JS 1961 PA, .269/.363/.455/.818

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=swihar000bla

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=saltal001jar

 

I was not referring to minor league performance of either player. I am basing my opinion on having seen both play at MLB level only.

[moonslav59]

At that point they were amassing interesting catcher prospects - Salty could hit and could play the position okay. Since catching is so hard to come by, getting as much potential as possible makes sense.

 

Salty had issues with "CERA" related numbers and was not very good at throwing runners out.

[harmony]

I was not referring to minor league performance of either player. I am basing my opinion on having seen both play at MLB level only.

At the MLB level, Jarrod Saltalamacchia has a career OPS+ of 93 and a career wRC+ of 92 while Blake Swihart has a career OPS+ of 90 and a career wRC+ of 92:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saltaja01.shtml

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5557&position=C

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swihabl01.shtml

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

[Kimmi]

While it does appear increasingly likely that Swhart gets traded, I still think that he is one of the three or four best young athletes on the team.

 

You can not teach his speed. And he has a real MLB bat now.

 

Too bad there seems to be no place for him on the 25 man roster.

 

I would not be in any rush to trade Swihart unless we're offered a deal that we just can't refuse. Let him start the year in AAA and work on his catching skills. Given some more time to develop, he may just surprise us.

 

Even if Leon and Vazquez hit well enough to be a productive tandem, what happens in case one of them is injured and Swihart is traded away?

[Spudboy]

At the MLB level, Jarrod Saltalamacchia has a career OPS+ of 93 and a career wRC+ of 92 while Blake Swihart has a career OPS+ of 90 and a career wRC+ of 92:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saltaja01.shtml

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5557&position=C

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swihabl01.shtml

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

 

I guess data proves that Salty is a better athlete than Swihart.

[Spudboy]

I would not be in any rush to trade Swihart unless we're offered a deal that we just can't refuse. Let him start the year in AAA and work on his catching skills. Given some more time to develop, he may just surprise us.

 

Even if Leon and Vazquez hit well enough to be a productive tandem, what happens in case one of them is injured and Swihart is traded away?

 

Butler?

[moonslav59]

At the MLB level, Jarrod Saltalamacchia has a career OPS+ of 93 and a career wRC+ of 92 while Blake Swihart has a career OPS+ of 90 and a career wRC+ of 92:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saltaja01.shtml

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5557&position=C

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swihabl01.shtml

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

 

 

Apples to Oranges.

 

By the time Salty was 24, he had over 800 PAs and placed last in catcher WAR out of all catchers with 800+ PAs from 2007-2009. Number 33 out of 33 who qualified.

 

His OPS at the time was .703 and he had a wRC+ of 81.

 

Swihart has less than 400 PAs in MLB- spread over 2 seasons. Even with his tiny sample size compared to most catchers with over 350 PAss ince 2015, Swihart still placed 23rd out of 47 in WAR +1.9 (just ahead of David Ross) and has a wRC+ of 92 (T20th out of 47).

 

Do you really think Swihart has the same trade value as Salty had at age 24-25?

 

[cp176]

Butler?

 

whatshisname from Portland.

[harmony]

Apples to Oranges.

 

By the time Salty was 24, he had over 800 PAs and placed last in catcher WAR out of all catchers with 800+ PAs from 2007-2009. Number 33 out of 33 who qualified.

 

His OPS at the time was .703 and he had a wRC+ of 81.

 

Swihart has less than 400 PAs in MLB- spread over 2 seasons. Even with his tiny sample size compared to most catchers with over 350 PAss ince 2015, Swihart still placed 23rd out of 47 in WAR +1.9 (just ahead of David Ross) and has a wRC+ of 92 (T20th out of 47).

 

Do you really think Swihart has the same trade value as Salty had at age 24-25?

 

I guess apple-to-apple would be Jarrod Saltalamacchia in November 2009 and Blake Swihart in November 2016.

 

I suspect Saltalamacchia lost value between November 2009 and his trade on July 31, 2010, after playing only two games for Texas on April 5 and 7, 2010. At the time of the trade, Saltalamachia was a 2010 minor leaguer with 63 games at Oklahoma City.

 

In other words, Saltalamacchia's value was higher in November 2009 than it was on July 31, 2010 (although Saltalamacchia missed the end of the 2009 season with a shoulder injury).

 

Swihart's current value is certainly impacted by his June 4 ankle injury that ultimately required season-ending surgery. The injury marked the second straight year that Swihart had been sidelined with an injury at the left ankle or below. As one blogger wrote recently:

 

Boston should try to use Swihart as a trading chip when his value isn’t too diminished. If he picks up another injury to the lower left region of his body or his bat starts to fade, the team might lose its opportunity for Swihart to contribute one last time.

 

http://bosoxinjection.com/2016/10/21/red-sox-new-big-bats-spell-doom-blake-swihart-2017/

 

As I have written, Swihart's performance in the first four months of 2017 should determine whether he has more, less or about the same trade value as Saltalamacchia had on July 31, 2010.

Edited November 10, 2016 by harmony

[bosoxmal]

I guess apple-to-apple would be Jarrod Saltalamacchia in November 2009 and Blake Swihart in November 2016.

 

I suspect Saltalamacchia lost value between November 2009 and his trade on July 31, 2010, after playing only two games for Texas on April 5 and 7, 2010. At the time of the trade, Saltalamachia was a 2010 minor leaguer with 63 games at Oklahoma City.

 

In other words, Saltalamacchia's value was higher in November 2009 than it was on July 31, 2010.

 

Swihart's current value is certainly impacted by his June 4 ankle injury that ultimately required season-ending surgery. The injury marked the second straight year that Swihart had been sidelined with an injury at the left ankle or below. As one blogger wrote recently:

 

 

 

http://bosoxinjection.com/2016/10/21/red-sox-new-big-bats-spell-doom-blake-swihart-2017/

 

As I have written, Swihart's performance in the first four months of 2017 should determine whether he has more, less or about the same trade value than Saltalamacchia had on July 31, 2010.

Swihsr id s switch hitter and, potentially a very good. Against all odds, I see him in LF next year. If he's healthy, no reason to trade him. If he isn't let him go. And, yes, I see Benintendi in CF next year.

[moonslav59]

I guess apple-to-apple would be Jarrod Saltalamacchia in November 2009 and Blake Swihart in November 2016.

 

I suspect Saltalamacchia lost value between November 2009 and his trade on July 31, 2010, after playing only two games for Texas on April 5 and 7, 2010. At the time of the trade, Saltalamachia was a 2010 minor leaguer with 63 games at Oklahoma City.

 

In other words, Saltalamacchia's value was higher in November 2009 than it was on July 31, 2010 (although Saltalamacchia missed the end of the 2009 season with a shoulder injury).

 

Swihart's current value is certainly impacted by his June 4 ankle injury that ultimately required season-ending surgery. The injury marked the second straight year that Swihart had been sidelined with an injury at the left ankle or below. As one blogger wrote recently:

 

 

 

http://bosoxinjection.com/2016/10/21/red-sox-new-big-bats-spell-doom-blake-swihart-2017/

 

As I have written, Swihart's performance in the first four months of 2017 should determine whether he has more, less or about the same trade value as Saltalamacchia had on July 31, 2010.

 

Still not really an answer.

[harmony]

Still not really an answer.

I owe no one an answer but I provide relevant information to help a reader decide ... or not. No one should care about my opinion if I had one.

[moonslav59]

I owe no one an answer but I provide relevant information to help a reader decide ... or not. No one should care about my opinion if I had one.

 

I feel like I'm talking to a robot!

 

[Bellhorn04]

I feel like I'm talking to a robot!

 

Dull presentation aside, I think harmony's numbers support the position that Swihart's trade value isn't very high at the moment. What he does this year could change all that.

[Dojji]

THIS is why I hate bloody megathreading -- lumping all posts on a topic into one thread regardless of context.

 

Every time I see this thread title rise to the top I say "Oh wait what, again? Is this another surgery or...? Wait, no. No it's just the title we arbitrarily decided to file all Swihart discussion into just so that I get to have a mini heart attack anytime anyone has anything to say on the subject of Blake Swihart."

[moonslav59]

Dull presentation aside, I think harmony's numbers support the position that Swihart's trade value isn't very high at the moment. What he does this year could change all that.

 

I don't think players' trade value fluctuate that much based on an injury that should heal to the point of not being an issue at all. GMs trust their scouts and evaluation analysis of a player.

 

I'm not saying Swihart's value is as high now as it was last winter, but my point is that I feel it is significantly higher than Salty's was at the same age. People say I'm all about numbers, but I'm not. You can't compare vastly different sample sizes and circumstances. Harmony almost always uses WAR as his valuation methodology, but he didn't even respond to my point about how these two ranked in WAR at the same ages as Swihart is now. Salty had the worst WAR in MLB as a catcher, while Swihart places about in the middle. So, he goes to career wRC+ not what thier wRC+ was at the same age as Swihart is.

 

Salty's numbers were greatly improved by his big 2013 season at age 28 and a little bit more by his 2015 season at age 30. Even if you expand his sample size from 2007 to 2012 (age 22-27), his wRC+ was 88 (.720 OPS), and he placed 37th out of 48 in WAR by catchers. If you increase the sample size PAs to 1500, he placed 27th out of 31 in catcher WAR. Swihart places 23rd out of 47 in the metric Harmony almost exclusively uses to compare players. Swi is average and Salty was close to the worst. They were not close to even at the same points in their careers.

 

True, Salty was traded the following season- mid year, and I get Harmony's point about Swi's value going up or down based on how well or poorly he does over the first 3-4 months of the 2017, but I'm comparing what both guys were at the same time in their careers, and I think clearly Swi has more value.

 

We all know Swihart's biggest weakness is defense, but from 2007-2009, Salty placed 37th out of 37 in catcher defense according to fangraphs. Swihart placed 40th out 48 from 2015-2016 (ahead of Salty, I might add, who's at #45). That's not great, but it's not the worst either.

[moonslav59]

THIS is why I hate bloody megathreading -- lumping all posts on a topic into one thread regardless of context.

 

Every time I see this thread title rise to the top I say "Oh wait what, again? Is this another surgery or...? Wait, no. No it's just the title we arbitrarily decided to file all Swihart discussion into just so that I get to have a mini heart attack anytime anyone has anything to say on the subject of Blake Swihart."

 

I actually had a mini heart attack myself when I saw this thread at the top, then I saw it was my old one.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think players' trade value fluctuate that much based on an injury that should heal to the point of not being an issue at all. GMs trust their scouts and evaluation analysis of a player.

 

I'm not saying Swihart's value is as high now as it was last winter, but my point is that I feel it is significantly higher than Salty's was at the same age. People say I'm all about numbers, but I'm not. You can't compare vastly different sample sizes and circumstances. Harmony almost always uses WAR as his valuation methodology, but he didn't even respond to my point about how these two ranked in WAR at the same ages as Swihart is now. Salty had the worst WAR in MLB as a catcher, while Swihart places about in the middle. So, he goes to career wRC+ not what thier wRC+ was at the same age as Swihart is.

 

Salty's numbers were greatly improved by his big 2013 season at age 28 and a little bit more by his 2015 season at age 30. Even if you expand his sample size from 2007 to 2012 (age 22-27), his wRC+ was 88 (.720 OPS), and he placed 37th out of 48 in WAR by catchers. If you increase the sample size PAs to 1500, he placed 27th out of 31 in catcher WAR. Swihart places 23rd out of 47 in the metric Harmony almost exclusively uses to compare players. Swi is average and Salty was close to the worst. They were not close to even at the same points in their careers.

 

True, Salty was traded the following season- mid year, and I get Harmony's point about Swi's value going up or down based on how well or poorly he does over the first 3-4 months of the 2017, but I'm comparing what both guys were at the same time in their careers, and I think clearly Swi has more value.

 

We all know Swihart's biggest weakness is defense, but from 2007-2009, Salty placed 37th out of 37 in catcher defense according to fangraphs. Swihart placed 40th out 48 from 2015-2016 (ahead of Salty, I might add, who's at #45). That's not great, but it's not the worst either.

 

I say Swihart's trade value is low right now based on 3 things:

 

1) The Sox demonstrated serious doubts about his defensive abilities as a catcher by demoting him quickly and then moving him to the outfield.

 

2) He hasn't shown much as a hitter at the MLB level yet. Decent BA but very little power.

 

3) Injury.

[moonslav59]

I say Swihart's trade value is low right now based on 3 things:

 

1) The Sox demonstrated serious doubts about his defensive abilities as a catcher by demoting him quickly and then moving him to the outfield.

 

2) He hasn't shown much as a hitter at the MLB level yet. Decent BA but very little power.

 

3) Injury.

 

I agree it's lower than before, but lower than Salty after 2009?

[Bellhorn04]

I agree it's lower than before, but lower than Salty after 2009?

 

I really don't know about the Salty after 2009 thing...nor do I think it matters that much. 2017 is the year for Swihart to show what he's got.

[moonslav59]

I really don't know about the Salty after 2009 thing...nor do I think it matters that much. 2017 is the year for Swihart to show what he's got.

 

Well, the discussion was about his value, in particular his trade value, and Harmony equated his trade value to what we gave up for Salty.... which was crap.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, the discussion was about his value, in particular his trade value, and Harmony equated his trade value to what we gave up for Salty.... which was crap.

 

OK - do you have a better comp for Swihart than harmony's Salty comp?

[sk7326]

OK - do you have a better comp for Swihart than harmony's Salty comp?

 

You're not wrong.

 

But I will counter with a couple of small items:

 

1. Last year was a tiny sample, but a .365 OBP from that position is encouraging. There was a lot of evidence to me (warning: eye test comment) that he could actually hit. Of course he got hurt before he could lean into a good stretch.

 

2. Defensively struggled, and clearly needs work. At the same time just a better athlete than Salty to a degree that you could see him figuring it out. He needs reps - he never got them.

 

His trade value is low now - because he is hurt. And I do think the Red Sox hurt his value some by abandoning the catching thing. I don't think he is the centerpiece of a trade anymore - but if healthy he is considerably higher value than the sack of potatoes value of Salty. After all (tiny sample from a time when players do still get better) his 2016 OBP was higher than any year Salty ever had.