Red Sox' relative strengths and weaknesses

[Elktonnick]

Extraordinary circumstances forced Boston to bring Swihart to the majors well before he was ready. If one wanted to get a fair representation of Swihart's defensive ability as a catcher the last month of the year was the only month worth considering. I haven't gone back to look at the record so I don't know how many times he caught Wright the last month of the year but one has to discount his performance with Wright to get a true picture of his relative defensive skills.

 

In general one doesn't need sabermetrics to know that Swihart is the better hitter whereas Vasquez is the better defender. And Hanigan is somewhere in the middle on both and calls a good game. The problem for the Red Sox is a simple one to state but a difficult one to decide i.e. can Vasquez become a better hitter and or can Swihart become a better defender.

[Kimmi]

Now if he turns out to be an above average defender, wouldn't he than be the best catcher in the league? I think he was the top offensive catcher last year, or was at one point.

 

I like defense behind the plate. I tell myself I'm a person who believes that defense is what matters in the catching position. But having a catcher who can spray line drives all over the place like Swihart is hard to pass up......... if we do trade him. We better get something really good.

 

Almost all of the reports that I have read in the past project Swihart to be the better overall catcher between the two. Vazquez is defensively elite with a light bat. Swihart is known as an offensive catcher whose defense is supposed to develop to a "very good" level. So yes, if Swihart realizes his potential, he could be one of the best catchers in the league.

 

It is unfair (and yes Jacko, I'm looking at you) to classify Swihart as a poor or below average defender based upon last season. For one, he was not even supposed to be in the bigs yet. For two, you can't make any judgment about what type of catcher he is based on one year. For three, all the scouting reports say otherwise.

[SoxHop]

If you have about an hour and the desire to read it, I can send you the links from The Fielding Bible on how it's calculated. Most people are bored to tears by it. As far as I know, pitch framing has not yet been factored into DRS. DRS is based on defensive plays made, stolen bases runs, and pitch blocking runs.

 

Send the links my way please.... I'm interested and hope to skim them. Defensive catching seems like a skill that would be very hard to build a stat for since there are many factors that would factor in with a past ball, a stolen base, or blocked pitch.

[Kimmi]

Send the links my way please.... I'm interested and hope to skim them. Defensive catching seems like a skill that would be very hard to build a stat for since there are many factors that would factor in with a past ball, a stolen base, or blocked pitch.

 

You can start with these links to Fangraphs, which give an overview of DRS and catcher defense. There are hyperlinks within the first article that will take you to The Fielding Bible.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/drs/

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/catcher-defense/

[Dojji]

I think the plan has always been for Swihart to break camp in Pawtucket at the start of the year, and we'll see what happens from there.

[Palodios]

I think the plan has always been for Swihart to break camp in Pawtucket at the start of the year, and we'll see what happens from there.

 

He'll probably start the year in the majors, and if he isn't crushing, he'll get optioned when Vazquez is ready.

[cp176]

Most likely, Swihart will hit. Big question comes when Vasquez is eventually ready to go.

[jacksonianmarch]

Swihart can hit. He'll be a good hitter in the bigs, with good average and double digit homers. That's not the issue. The issue is whether he can be an average defensive catcher or if he ends up a COF or 1B

[cp176]

We all know that hitting is not the issue. He will become a good catcher. He is adequate right now. Save the negative stat picture. Boston is prepared to use him as their starting catcher going forward. The question is what becomes of him when Vasquez the real catcher is ready to go? I think that his greatest value to his team will be as a trade chip. We have players in the system that likely will hit at least as well as Swihart at the corners. My guess is that before it is all sorted out either Vasquez or Swihart get traded.

[Orange Juiced]

Swihart can hit. He'll be a good hitter in the bigs, with good average and double digit homers. That's not the issue. The issue is whether he can be an average defensive catcher or if he ends up a COF or 1B

 

The thread is being hijacked a little here, but oh well.

 

Would you rather have a catcher who is an excellent (not necessarily elite) hitter and an average defender, or one who is an elite defender but a below-average (but not terrible) hitter? Perhaps it depends on how the rest of the roster is constructed.

[Elktonnick]

The thread is being hijacked a little here, but oh well.

 

Would you rather have a catcher who is an excellent (not necessarily elite) hitter and an average defender, or one who is an elite defender but a below-average (but not terrible) hitter? Perhaps it depends on how the rest of the roster is constructed.

 

That and most importantly how he calls a game and his relationship with the starting pitchers.

[cp176]

The thread is being hijacked a little here, but oh well.

 

Would you rather have a catcher who is an excellent (not necessarily elite) hitter and an average defender, or one who is an elite defender but a below-average (but not terrible) hitter? Perhaps it depends on how the rest of the roster is constructed.

 

I would go with choice B everyday. Catchers with the type of all round catching talent Vasquez has just don't come along that often.

[Kimmi]

The thread is being hijacked a little here, but oh well.

 

Would you rather have a catcher who is an excellent (not necessarily elite) hitter and an average defender, or one who is an elite defender but a below-average (but not terrible) hitter? Perhaps it depends on how the rest of the roster is constructed.

 

I'm with CP on this one. I would go with choice B everyday.

[jacksonianmarch]

Those aren't your choices for 2016. Your choices are an above average offensive catcher who was the worst defensive catcher in baseball a yr ago or a catcher with average to below average offensive skills who is already a top 5-10 defensive catcher in baseball at a young age

[User Name]

Are you seriously taking the beginning-of-year MLB SSS regarding Swihart's defensive skills over the scouting reports and his entire body of work?

[jacksonianmarch]

So he had the lowest amount of defensive runs saved in baseball in half a season. How bad would it have been if he was around for the full season? His scouting reports and his results defensively were different. The SR on him when he came up was a guy whose pitch calling stunk who had athleticism behind the dish. He showed his pitch calling stunk, his pitch framing stunk and for an athletic guy, his blocking stunk. He was a terrible defensive catcher. Do you think he all of a sudden shows up in 2016 and is a rock solid defender? It's not like he has the body habitus of a postprandial Buddha, so it isn't like he isn't capable. He was just downright bad. There will likely be a progression towards average, but I can bet you a sig that, should he get 80+ games behind the dish in the bigs, he will be in the bottom third (of catchers similarly catching 80+ games) in defensive runs saved in 2016. Want me to own your sig for another month next fall?

[User Name]

...in an SSS. Your homerism, which had mostly been absent for a while, shows in spades here. Let's let the guy play a little before we anoint him the worst or best at anything.

[jacksonianmarch]

I am only saying that he graded out as the worst defensive catcher in baseball last yr. And for 2016, to expect him to be average may be a leap of faith.

[User Name]

Why would it be? The only real weakness scouts consistently point out is pitch calling, which is the one thing the dugout can control for a young catcher. He got rushed last year, and spent most of his early action with a "deer in headlights" look. He'll be fine.

[jacksonianmarch]

Wanna sig bet?

 

I bet you Swihart finishes in the bottom third of catchers with 80+ games caught in defensive runs saved in 2016. The only caveat is that he catches 80 or more games as well.

 

2 week sig bet?

[User Name]

Oh yes. Winning this one.

[jacksonianmarch]

Alright. If Swihart catches 80+ games and is top 2/3 in defensive runs saved in 2016 of catchers who catch 80 games or more than you have my sig

[Dojji]

Nope. As a relatively neutral arbiter here, since I really don't like either of you very much, here's how it's going down.

 

If Swihart doesn't catch 80 games, no sig for either one. We have 2 other catchers that are worth big league roster spots and Swihart was only up this year because both of them got hurt. Very real chance the franchise considers Vazquez to be ahead of Swihart on the depth chart at the moment, that has to be taken into account, and that may be true regardless of any performance or lack thereof from Swihart -- defensive catchers that can do what Vazquez is capable of are incredibly valuable, and the current defensive meta only makes that skillset even more in demand.

 

Swihart winding up playing in the big league in another position, for example first or third base, both of which are distant but possible chances, also washes out the bet.

 

If he catches 80+games at cather and is below average overall, Jacko wins. That means failing to provide a combination of offense and defense that's worth at least average value at catcher, since providing enough glove to justify his stick is all that we're really demanding from Swihart.

 

If he catches 80+ games and produces at an overall average level or better, UN wins.

 

With Vazquez as an option for starting catcher it's very possible that Swihart won't get that number of games through no fault of his own. I'd feel differently if he wasn't potentially blocked through no fault of his own, but insisting that he catches 80 games or else you win, when he may be stuck behind one of the league's best defensive catchers, is unfair.

Edited December 15, 2015 by Dojji

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm using defensive runs saved Dojji, a number that at least can be computed for season's end. This is the number used to call Swihart the worst defensive catcher in baseball and is the number I plan to use.

[Dojji]

That I don't have a huge problem with, but the odds of Swihart playing 80 games while being where he is in the depth chart aren't particularly high, as he's sharing the roster with 2 other catchers of reasonable skill, so setting that as a victory condition is unrealistic. Let's not forget that before he turned out to need Tommy John, Vazquez was the presumptive starter and Swihart was considered to be at least a couple years away.

[jacksonianmarch]

I get it. Which is why I put the caveat of 80 games in there. Anything less than that is basically too small of a sample size to use.

[MJantomaso]

The entire rotation after Price is an absolute craps shoot...that worries me. This team needs to add another quality arm if they want to make it in to October.

[a700hitter]

The entire rotation after Price is an absolute craps shoot...that worries me. This team needs to add another quality arm if they want to make it in to October.

They should go hard after the Marlin's Fernandez or the Mets" Harvey.

[Elktonnick]

They should go hard after the Marlin's Fernandez or the Mets" Harvey.

 

Marlin's won't let Fernandez go unless Dombrowski parts with the farm's top prospects and two ML starters. Marlins will want too much.

[Bellhorn04]

Marlin's won't let Fernandez go unless Dombrowski parts with the farm's top prospects and two ML starters. Marlins will want too much.

 

A Marlins official was quoted on what they wanted from us. It was so ridiculous that it seemed more like a joke.

 

http://nesn.com/2015/12/marlins-official-reveals-huge-red-sox-package-wanted-for-jose-fernandez/

 

“We thought we might be able to piece something together with the Red Sox,” a Marlins official told Peter Gammons. “With E-Rod (Eduardo Rodriguez), Mookie Betts, Christian Vazquez, Yoan Moncada and another pitcher I thought we had something that might work.”

Edited December 15, 2015 by Bellhorn04