2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[Bellhorn04]

Clearly big, tall, strong guys are the way to go. They run faster, hit harder, and hurt the ground more than themselves when dive for balls. The deck is clearly stacked against a guy like Pedroia. If he doesn't at least have blue eyes, he could be really screwed.

 

He may not have blue eyes, but he has crazy eyes. Those are good too.

[cp176]

He may not have blue eyes, but he has crazy eyes. Those are good too.

 

David Bowie eyes! He is an old soul. Very traditional. Doesn't give a crap about those bad metrics. I like that . (just a little joke now) Don't need the saber metric folk going all unhinged on me.

[a700hitter]

David Bowie eyes! He is an old soul. Very traditional. Doesn't give a crap about those bad metrics. I like that . (just a little joke now) Don't need the saber metric folk going all unhinged on me.

 

They will track you down and your lifeless body will be found with a copy of Bill James Abstract to send a message to other heretics.

[cp176]

They will track you down and your lifeless body will be found with a copy of Bill James Abstract to send a message to other heretics.

 

I shudder to think where that Bill James book would be found.

[a700hitter]

i shudder to think where that bill james book would be found.

lol!

[Kimmi]

Pedroia throwing down with Kimmi:

 

Pedroia is very old school. I wonder if he's offended by that "label".

 

His old school nature is what makes him so great, IMO.

 

That said, he doesn't know what he's talking about.

[Kimmi]

It is a very revealing article. The people who actually go onto the field probably aren't (hopefully) paying too much attention to the metrics. Most of these guys probably know less about what all of the abbreviations mean than I do. There has to be some sort of filter between management and players. Now that is not to say that all of the information gleaned from the compilation of the data shouldn't be used. Not very likely that many of the actual players are doing the interpretation.

 

IMO, it's really no revelation. It's no secret that most players and managers have no clue about advanced metrics and couldn't care less about them.

[Kimmi]

You misunderstand. I hated the Sandoval signing, I knew he was in decline and thought it was completely unnecessary even if he was productive. I just think it's a bit unreasonable to say that it was obvious he would decline that much that fast.

 

^^This.

 

It was a bad contract because it was for 5 years. Sandoval should have been worth it in at least the first two years of the deal.

 

Every analysis I've read of the signing rates this as risky because of what Sandoval would likely be in years 4 or 5 of the contract. There were really no concerns with how he would produce at the front end.

[Kimmi]

David Bowie eyes! He is an old soul. Very traditional. Doesn't give a crap about those bad metrics. I like that . (just a little joke now) Don't need the saber metric folk going all unhinged on me.

 

Sabermetric folk don't go all unhinged.

 

I believe that's an oxymoron.

[cp176]

Sabermetric folk don't go all unhinged.

 

I believe that's an oxymoron.

 

Hey- I can deal with old age - traditional - old school but don't be calling me any kind of moron.

Seriously though, do you think the cheese could ever slide off the cracker of one of those saber metric folks?

[cp176]

IMO, it's really no revelation. It's no secret that most players and managers have no clue about advanced metrics and couldn't care less about them.

 

 

Is this suggesting that they might be numbskulls?

[a700hitter]

Pedroia is very old school. I wonder if he's offended by that "label".

 

His old school nature is what makes him so great, IMO.

 

That said, he doesn't know what he's talking about.

Sure. Old school = uninformed in sabremetrics speak.

[User Name]

^^This.

 

It was a bad contract because it was for 5 years. Sandoval should have been worth it in at least the first two years of the deal.

 

Every analysis I've read of the signing rates this as risky because of what Sandoval would likely be in years 4 or 5 of the contract. There were really no concerns with how he would produce at the front end.

 

Are you serious? Ken Rosenthal and a host of other sports media personalities immediately pointed to Sandoval's weight and three-year decline and pretty much declared it a huge bust possibility right at the outset.

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/pablo-sandoval-hanley-ramirez-this-red-sox-splurge-looks-a-lot-like-the-last-one-112414

 

Edes was worried about the fact that Sandoval didn't even want his weight problems to be mentioned during negotiations. The fellowiship of misery presided by Mazz and the CHB were right this time.

[Palodios]

Sandoval was probably worth 50-60 million when he was signed. Healthy, reliable, playoff proven 3B with a solid bat and okay defense.

 

Players don't just make 5 WAR swings overnight. Unless they just signed a big contract with the Red Sox.

[User Name]

"Playoff proven" means exactly jack s***, given the sample, and the need to acually get there. Three years of declining OPS and being 100 pounds overweight certainly were not going to help him flex his "playoff muscle". It was a stupid, stupid signing, and no one can objectively prove otherwise.

[Dojji]

Of course it was a stupid signing. It was a stupid signing like the Crawford signing was stupid. The initial premise was flawed but somewhat defensible, and matters were made worse by the stupendous decline the player experienced once joining the team.

 

I disagreed with the initial decision to sign Sandoval, but you can't pretend that the fact that the bottom fell out of the guy the very first year he joined the team was in any way predictable or reasonable.

[Palodios]

"Playoff proven" means exactly jack s***, given the sample, and the need to acually get there. Three years of declining OPS and being 100 pounds overweight certainly were not going to help him flex his "playoff muscle". It was a stupid, stupid signing, and no one can objectively prove otherwise.

 

He was a 3 WAR player in 2014, and a -2 WAR player in 2015. It was a dumb signing, but it wasn't exactly an obvious drop off.

[Spudboy]

Then WAR must be a very inaccurate predictor of performance. His offensive numbers were only decent and were in obvious decline for several years. The guy can hardly move laterally. I noticed that unfortunate fact watching him perform in the play offs. His left- right splits were f***ed before he was signed so I don't understand why anyone expected him to be a good switch hitter.

 

Pal is correct, though. He was worth about 9-10 mil a year to the Giants. To the Sox? He doubled his pay overnight. This was an obvious bad move from the get go.

 

I wish that he would tear an ACL so we could see Merrero or someone else who actually plays good D and has a chance of being better than this glob of s***.

 

Really, if he goes on the DL he could participate in a hot dog eating contest or something better suited to his best skill. Eating.

[Spudboy]

"Playoff proven" means exactly jack s***, given the sample, and the need to acually get there. Three years of declining OPS and being 100 pounds overweight certainly were not going to help him flex his "playoff muscle". It was a stupid, stupid signing, and no one can objectively prove otherwise.

 

Common sense. Stop.

[a700hitter]

The guy is a human doughnut. He never should have been signed without a weight clause.

[a700hitter]

$18 million per year is a reasonable price imo

9:36pm: Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports that the Orioles have increased their interest in Cespedes and are considering an offer worth around $18MM per year. That would seem to indicate that the Orioles are on the higher end of the range previously listed by Crasnick, although from my vantage point that still seems to be too light to land a player of Cespedes’ caliber. Whether that’s a launching point into deeper negotiations or an offer near the top of Baltimore’s comfort zone remains to be seen, but the team does not appear, at this time, to simply be willing to reallocate the ~$150MM offered to Davis to a pursuit of Cespedes.

[User Name]

Of course it was a stupid signing. It was a stupid signing like the Crawford signing was stupid. The initial premise was flawed but somewhat defensible, and matters were made worse by the stupendous decline the player experienced once joining the team.

 

I disagreed with the initial decision to sign Sandoval, but you can't pretend that the fact that the bottom fell out of the guy the very first year he joined the team was in any way predictable or reasonable.

 

I can, because it's not the first time (and won't be the last time) a horrendously overweight player falls off a cliff from one year to the next. And the warning signs of a decline were there. Stop pretending they were not.

[User Name]

Here is a study done by fangraphs on heavy vs. average players. The data absolutely backs up my point. We can't just disregard the data when it does not suit one's point. It's mostly focused on Prince Fielder, but it gets the point across.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-will-prince-fielder-age/

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Curve2.jpg

 

For those who don't want to read, look at the curve. In general, fat players peak early then start a sustained decline around their mid-20's, sometimes falling off a cliff around their late 20's, which is exactly what's happening with Sandoval. The fact that the weight clause was a sticking point in negotiations should have been the red flag that sent the Sox far, far away from him. Then they go out and sign a better player and put him in an unfamliliar postition. Stupid all around.

 

Another article, specifically on Sandoval:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-pablo-sandoval-did-the-red-sox-buy/

Edited January 15, 2016 by User Name?

[Bellhorn04]

Are you serious? Ken Rosenthal and a host of other sports media personalities immediately pointed to Sandoval's weight and three-year decline and pretty much declared it a huge bust possibility right at the outset.

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/pablo-sandoval-hanley-ramirez-this-red-sox-splurge-looks-a-lot-like-the-last-one-112414

 

Edes was worried about the fact that Sandoval didn't even want his weight problems to be mentioned during negotiations. The fellowiship of misery presided by Mazz and the CHB were right this time.

 

Man, it really hurts that Rosenthal nailed it at the time.

[Bellhorn04]

Of course it was a stupid signing. It was a stupid signing like the Crawford signing was stupid. The initial premise was flawed but somewhat defensible, and matters were made worse by the stupendous decline the player experienced once joining the team.

 

I disagreed with the initial decision to sign Sandoval, but you can't pretend that the fact that the bottom fell out of the guy the very first year he joined the team was in any way predictable or reasonable.

 

The 'enigma' factor is that some guys really do fall off a cliff when they come to Boston. Renteria and Crawford were prior examples.

[User Name]

On another note away from from Sandoval:

 

Here is a very interesting analysis on the Steamer projections for the 2016 Red Sox from Dave Cameron:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/investigating-steamers-optimism-for-the-red-sox/#more-208419

[cp176]

Interesting - No doubt about the fact that Ramirez's ability to play first base is huge. Not a lot in that projection overall to be negative about. Hanley's play this year will play a major role. Mystery!

[User Name]

They're saying Ramirez' impact in the overall projections could be negative fifteen runs. That is substantial. I like Hanley's ability to rebound offensively, but if his D is so bad that then what his bat could bring to the table might not be enough to warrant an extended look at this experiment.

[a700hitter]

Interesting - No doubt about the fact that Ramirez's ability to play first base is huge. Not a lot in that projection overall to be negative about. Hanley's play this year will play a major role. Mystery!

I really am perplexed that DD is willing to start his tenure in Boston with a defensive experiment with Hanley, especially after spending a boatload on Price and getting Kimbrell. You can screw up a lot of games at first base. Also, I am very disappointed that DD has not added another quality starting pitcher. I still think our pitching is thin and mediocre. Thankfully, the rest of the ALE is flawed.

[cp176]

They're saying Ramirez' impact in the overall projections could be negative fifteen runs. That is substantial. I like Hanley's ability to rebound offensively, but if his D is so bad that then what his bat could bring to the table might not be enough to warrant an extended look at this experiment.

 

As much as I would love to see them add another starter, what Ramirez does or doesn't do has a tremendous amount of significance. If he can't play that position, I still think they are set up to compete but the question of what do you do with him could get very interesting. I don't see him getting shelved until Ortiz retires. You have to hope that he can do the job. He should be able to.