2014 Offseason Thread

[Palodios]

I'm wondering if Middlebrroks is rethinking his position on not compromising his health by playing Winter Ball? How healthy do you have to be to pump gas? My earlier prediction that he will not be invited to Spring Training with the big club is looking pretty good.

 

He's currently the 5th or 6th third baseman on the depth chart.

[seabeachfred]

Fred, the other key thing to remember here is that Ben struck fast. None of the top pitchers have been signed or traded. He's filled key holes BEFORE the Yankees, so we have a better idea of what resource he has left, what he can spend, and who he can trade.

 

He's definitely not done yet.

 

That is a good point Pal.....It is always good to strike fast but to me it is the pitching we need and I wonder just how much money is left in the kitty for solid top notching pitchers not named Masterson, Hummel, Santana or the rest of that low risk high reward nonsense that has always failed us. We'll see and hope you're right because without two top notch starters all we will have will be a team that scores a lot of runs, gives up a lot more with shoddy defense and weak pitching.

[Palodios]

After the Sandoval signing is announced, I would expect a trade to happen fairly quickly. Whether he trades the glut of OFers or XB, the price will go up if teams know that we have a glut of players that we can't use.

 

Teams are going to do what is best for them. There are several teams looking to trade pitching, so Ben has plenty of room to shop around.

[BSN07]

The trade scenarios are plentiful for sure. Gonna make for a heated December around here.

[Palodios]

That is a good point Pal.....It is always good to strike fast but to me it is the pitching we need and I wonder just how much money is left in the kitty for solid top notching pitchers not named Masterson, Hummel, Santana or the rest of that low risk high reward nonsense that has always failed us. We'll see and hope you're right because without two top notch starters all we will have will be a team that scores a lot of runs, gives up a lot more with shoddy defense and weak pitching.

 

The Red Sox added 36M/year. They can still trim 10.5/year for Cespedes, 13/year for Victorino, or 5.5/year from Craig.

 

My guess is the Red Sox trade a haul for a cost controlled ace that only costs 5-7 million a year, then sign Shields for 16/year.

[Palodios]

The whole thing makes the Lackey trade look worse though. This team would look a lot better with him here at 500k, and not having to carry Allen Craig's dead weight.

[BSN07]

The Sox still have money for P. They have 140m+ available next off season(before han and pan sign officially). They can go over the LT for Lester if they want for a year if Lester puts them over it. Even if they dont sign Lester they have enough moveable chips now to land a SP via trade. The offensive market happened to break first and the Sox pounced. The SP market was always going to be slow with them not willing to offer Lester a massive sign now deal and Boras doing his yearly routine. There is still time and assets for the rotation. Enjoy what the team has done up until now. Because they are 2 solid moves.

[BSN07]

The whole thing makes the Lackey trade look worse though. This team would look a lot better with him here at 500k, and not having to carry Allen Craig's dead weight.

 

I'm gonna hold off on writing Craig off. I wanna see how a healthy off season suits his play before kicking him to the curb. That said if he is traded I won't shed any tears.

 

idk Pal, I guess I'm in a minority that likes Kelley. A few years of his upside was worth 1 year of a pissed of Lackey making 500K to me.

[RedSoxNC84]

After looking back, the Hanley signging still doesn't make a ton of sense, but getting him at 5/90 if true, is a f***ing steal.

[Palodios]

I'm gonna hold off on writing Craig off. I wanna see how a healthy off season suits his play before kicking him to the curb. That said if he is traded I won't shed any tears.

 

idk Pal, I guess I'm in a minority that likes Kelley. A few years of his upside was worth 1 year of a pissed of Lackey making 500K to me.

 

 

I like Kelly too. If the trade was Lackey for Kelley straight up, it makes a lot of sense. Trade 1.5 years of a proven #2 for several years of a #3, not bad. I just haven't seen anything good from Craig -- he looks like a salary dump to me, and that kills Kelly's value.

[BSN07]

I like Kelly too. If the trade was Lackey for Kelley straight up, it makes a lot of sense. Trade 1.5 years of a proven #2 for several years of a #3, not bad. I just haven't seen anything good from Craig -- he looks like a salary dump to me, and that kills Kelly's value.

 

Not really. He was a throw in roster filler that may or may not produce. It's not like he's on a long term deal. The Sox could non tender him and no feel it at all.

[User Name]

The whole thing makes the Lackey trade look worse though. This team would look a lot better with him here at 500k, and not having to carry Allen Craig's dead weight.

 

Joe Kelly?

[jd98]

That is a good point Pal.....It is always good to strike fast but to me it is the pitching we need and I wonder just how much money is left in the kitty for solid top notching pitchers not named Masterson, Hummel, Santana or the rest of that low risk high reward nonsense that has always failed us. We'll see and hope you're right because without two top notch starters all we will have will be a team that scores a lot of runs, gives up a lot more with shoddy defense and weak pitching.

 

You keep saying low risk, high reward. I think you mean high risk, low reward or possibly high risk, high reward. Low risk, high reward is a good thing and what you should hope for.

[Spudboy]

Oh Brother.

[a700hitter]

Some reports coming out saying both signings are done deals. Remember in 2012 when poorly made, splashy signings stopped being part of this team's philosophy? Apparently one losing season changed their minds quickly.

Here's a good article discussing the abandonment of the FO Core Principles.

 

My favorite line from the article:

 

"The Sox were so self-congratulatory — CEO Larry Lucchino just wanted to oil up and roll around in the idea of the bargain-basement Red Sox winning a World Series while the Yankees pounded on doors in search of an orgy — it made you feel bad for the fans of all the teams out there with front offices too dim-witted to crack the code."

 

Smarty pants Red Sox miss big picture

 

By John Tomase

 

The Red Sox are like the dieter who counts calories for 11 days, falls off the wagon during an IPA- and burger-fueled bender, and then concludes, “Well, that was pointless.”

 

Last spring, all we heard about were the core principles that governed their roster-building decisions. Spend wildly on a past-his-prime free agent? No, thanks. Sign players whose best years were behind them? Leave that to suckers like the Yankees. Give a pitcher in his 30s a six-year deal when he would almost definitely break down early in the contract and never live up to it? Oh, my sides.

 

The Sox were so self-congratulatory — CEO Larry Lucchino just wanted to oil up and roll around in the idea of the bargain-basement Red Sox winning a World Series while the Yankees pounded on doors in search of an orgy — it made you feel bad for the fans of all the teams out there with front offices too dim-witted to crack the code.

 

But here we are, barely three weeks into the 2014 offseason, and the Red Sox are making a serious run at Jon Lester that contains just a whiff of desperation.

 

The big left-hander has spent all but two months of his 13-year professional career in Boston. Fans would love to have him back because he delivered, especially in the postseason, and because he has never said a bad word about the organization or his contract.

 

Fans don’t generally give much thought to three, four, or five years down the road, however. And nor should they. They’re fans. They look at the here and now, see the Red Sox utterly without an ace to front their rotation and make the natural connection – bring back Jonny Lestah!

 

The Red Sox, however, are supposed to operate on a different plane, divorced from emotion and the temptation of the quick fix, even with two gaping holes where the aces atop their rotation should be.

 

They’re supposed to see the big picture, remain true to their core principles, and do what’s best for the long-term health of the franchise. If it costs them a few thousand season tickets today, they’ll be that much better off for it tomorrow when they’ve built a consistent winner that bangs out Fenway nightly.

 

On Lester, their core principles are clear: giving huge money to players in their 30s, particularly pitchers, is a disaster waiting to happen. Here are John Henry’s words on the subject in a fascinating and oft-quoted article from Bloomberg Businessweek last season:

 

“Virtually all of the underpaid players are under 30 and virtually all the overpaid players are over 30,” Henry said. “Yet teams continue to extravagantly overpay for players above the age of 30.”

 

What desperate, starving teams do is take that quote and convince themselves it doesn’t apply to them, that in this particular case, the odds will be forever in their favor.

 

The Yankees thought CC Sabathia was the exception after he opted out in 2011, which just happened to mark the start of a four-year decline. They may be on the hook for him and his 5-plus ERA through 2017.

 

The Mets knew Johan Santana was the exception when they gave him $137.5 million in 2008. They got three good years out of him and ate the other $65 million, give or take.

 

Speaking of exceptions, was there a surer bet in baseball than Justin Verlander? The Tigers didn’t think so, which is why he’s signed through 2019 for over $200 million. Hopefully last year’s 4.54 ERA was just an aberration.

 

The Red Sox are aware of all these cases, but they’re making a serious run at Lester anyway, even though he has thrown the sixth-most innings in baseball (1,4512⁄3) since 2008 and even though he turns 31 in January.

 

He’s a tremendous pitcher and may turn out to be the exception who just keeps on trucking into his late 30s, like Randy Johnson or Curt Schilling, but history suggests otherwise.

 

The Red Sox know this history as well as anyone and are choosing to ignore it, which makes you wonder just how committed they really were to that diet in the first place.

Edited November 24, 2014 by a700hitter

[jd98]

I'm not going to try to predict what trades are coming because if Cherington has shown one thing this offseason, it is that he is unpredictable.

The two biggest needs were SP and SP, so he signs the two most expensive free agent hitters. ?????

Already have 5 or 6 OF that deserve regular playing time, so he signs a SS to move to OF. ?????

 

Obviously there is much still to come, so I'm not judging yet, except for the Sandoval deal, that's just insane. He's now the highest paid player on the team, and will probably be the highest paid hitter for the next 5 years, with a .759 OPS over the last 3 seasons and zero speed, and good but not great defense.

 

I'm 90% excited about Hanley signing. The money and years is less than what was expected, and he has MVP upside. I expect him to do well in Boston. The 10% pessimism is that he has been wildly inconsistent, has been injured a lot, and is bad defensively.

[BSN07]

Crasnick reporting Hanley figures inaccurate. The waiting game goes on lol

[BSN07]

I wonder if news of the Seager 100M extension made the players agents pump the breaks?

[RedSoxNC84]

Well that escalated quickly.

[d-money]

Need to get pitching.I expect the Yankees now to go crazy and spend 100 million.lol

[Palodios]

Rosenthall is reporting the deal is actually 4/88 with a 1/22 vesting option.

[MANNYHOF24]

Red Sox need to get Jon Lester on the phone now and get that deal done.

[Palodios]

Red Sox need to get Jon Lester on the phone now and get that deal done.

 

I feel like everyone has been saying this for the last 16 months

 

Hey Ben, make it happen.

[Spudboy]

If the Sox have indeed signed both or are about to, that puts them at 42 on the 40 man.

 

Two someones have to go.

[Palodios]

If the Sox have indeed signed both or are about to, that puts them at 42 on the 40 man.

 

Two someones have to go.

 

Jemille Weeks is the first. Not sure who the next is, maybe Juan Francisco or Dan Butler. That roster is so full that they are going to need to make a trade just to open some room.

[BSN07]

If the Sox have indeed signed both or are about to, that puts them at 42 on the 40 man.

 

Two someones have to go.

 

Trades are on the horizon.

[User Name]

Weeks and Wright are my bets if it comes to that.

[InfernoOrangeSS]

You keep saying low risk, high reward. I think you mean high risk, low reward or possibly high risk, high reward. Low risk, high reward is a good thing and what you should hope for.

 

I think the phrase is "low-cost, high-reward", which makes Fred's statement true. (Low risk in money/time and the hope of them being successful.)

I could be wrong, though.

Edited November 24, 2014 by InfernoOrangeSS

[RedSoxNC84]

Ramirez agrees to terms for 4/88 with a 22M vesting option for a fifth year.

 

-Just now saw Pal posted this already.

 

 

Wonder what's going to happen with the Sandoval signing then... I feel like there might be a major shakeup coming....

[Spudboy]

Weeks and Wright are my bets if it comes to that.

 

User I am of the opinion that the Sox use some of their redundancies / prospects in trade for at least one and maybe two younger type starter types.

 

If my suspicions are correct, what young pitchers would you see as possible targets?