The Jon Lester contract situation

[Palodios]

Then you'll be shocked. Prices have gone up since Verlander and King Felix both gave their hometown teams significant discounts.

 

The guys getting 200-300 million are in the next tier from Lester. Better comparisons are Beckett's last contract, Lackey's contract. Tanaka is in the same tier and he only got 150 million... at age 25. Masterson is asking for 3/60 from the Guardians, and his last three seasons are comparable to Lester's

[Bellhorn04]

Needless to say one potential suitor for Lester next offseason would be the NYY. I don't think they'd even blink at giving him $150 million +.

[redsoxrules]

LOL...

Jon Lester is NOT a 25 MIL a year pitcher.

[redsoxrules]

Needless to say one potential suitor for Lester next offseason would be the NYY. I don't think they'd even blink at giving him $150 million +.

 

The Yankee's wouldn't blink at 200 MIL , that doesn't mean he's worth it.

[Bellhorn04]

The guys getting 200-300 million are in the next tier from Lester. Better comparisons are Beckett's last contract, Lackey's contract. Tanaka is in the same tier and he only got 150 million... at age 25. Masterson is asking for 3/60 from the Guardians, and his last three seasons are comparable to Lester's

 

Beckett and Lackey are yesteryear's prices. Tanaka carries big risk for obvious reasons.

[Bellhorn04]

The Yankee's wouldn't blink at 200 MIL , that doesn't mean he's worth it.

 

I'm not talking about what he's worth, it's what he can get.

[redsoxrules]

I'm not talking about what he's worth, it's what he can get.

 

Yes but he's stated a million times, he wants to stay in Boston.

If he truly wants to stay in Boston at a discount, he'll sign at around 17 MIL a year

[Bellhorn04]

Yes but he's stated a million times, he wants to stay in Boston.

If he truly wants to stay in Boston at a discount, he'll sign at around 17 MIL a year

 

You're pulling 17 million out of a hat. As Palodios said, Masterson is looking for 20 million.

 

You may have missed it when Lester said he also didn't want to 'set back the market'. That was a sign that he isn't giving any Pedey-style bargain.

[sk7326]

Yes but he's stated a million times, he wants to stay in Boston.

If he truly wants to stay in Boston at a discount, he'll sign at around 17 MIL a year

 

AJ Burnett signed for $16 million - so let's stop laughing together.

 

First of all, why does the salary matter - it's not going to affect anybody. It does not provide a dollar for dollar effect for the Red Sox - they might budget themselves based on the luxury tax - but it's all a matter of what they want to spend, and that has more to do with how many planes John Henry wants than anything.

 

Second, you have to respect the goods - $17M a year is not a fair price for what Lester contributes to a high revenue club like Boston which can afford to pay a lot of money for WARs. A man can offer a discount - but he can't reasonably be expected to leave that much money on the table in such a seller's market. Lester's willingness to take a discount - or at least the announcement - is an olive branch that he wants to make a deal with Boston. It's not a pledge to work for peanuts because fans find it appealing - it is giving Boston a long reasonable crack at landing him. Boston should take advantage of the opportunity, offer him a deal which he can accept without feeling rightly insulted and get on with the title defense.

[Palodios]

Beckett and Lackey are yesteryear's prices. Tanaka carries big risk for obvious reasons.

 

Sure, but 80 million adjusted for baseball-inflation is roughly in the 100-120 range that we are all speculating makes sense. Ervin Santana will significantly affect the market because his numbers are actually very similar to Lester's. Cliff Lee made 5/120, Adam Wainright 97 million, CJ Wilson 80 million, Jared Weaver 80 million, Garza 50 million, RA Dickey 25 million. These are not terrible comparisons.

[sk7326]

Sure, but 80 million adjusted for baseball-inflation is roughly in the 100-120 range that we are all speculating makes sense. Ervin Santana will significantly affect the market because his numbers are actually very similar to Lester's. Cliff Lee made 5/120, Adam Wainright 97 million, CJ Wilson 80 million, Jared Weaver 80 million, Garza 50 million, RA Dickey 25 million. These are not terrible comparisons.

 

Santana has a very spotty case history and was probably the worst starter in baseball in 2012. He is having trouble finding a market at his price because he has been terrible in the very recent past. Lee is a good comparison although he got the best contract in his FA group. Garza's injury history brought down his numbers and RA Dickey also had a lot of flaws.

 

The comps you bring up are interesting but all have their own quirks. You have to think in terms of today's baseball economy and all of Lester's virtues. His one flaw is that he is not Verlander-King Felix-Darvish, although he can get to that level from time to time. But the market is paying a lot of money for what Lester gives you - one of the most consistent records of quality in the league with almost none of the red flags that come with making future bets on starting pitchers.

[Bellhorn04]

Second, you have to respect the goods - $17M a year is not a fair price for what Lester contributes to a high revenue club like Boston which can afford to pay a lot of money for WARs. A man can offer a discount - but he can't reasonably be expected to leave that much money on the table in such a seller's market. Lester's willingness to take a discount - or at least the announcement - is an olive branch that he wants to make a deal with Boston. It's not a pledge to work for peanuts because fans find it appealing - it is giving Boston a long reasonable crack at landing him. Boston should take advantage of the opportunity, offer him a deal which he can accept without feeling rightly insulted and get on with the title defense.

 

You and I are in complete agreement on this issue, but things have really gotten insane when we can refer to 17 million a year for pitching as peanuts.

[redsoxrules]

AJ Burnett signed for $16 million - so let's stop laughing together.

 

First of all, why does the salary matter - it's not going to affect anybody. It does not provide a dollar for dollar effect for the Red Sox - they might budget themselves based on the luxury tax - but it's all a matter of what they want to spend, and that has more to do with how many planes John Henry wants than anything.

 

Second, you have to respect the goods - $17M a year is not a fair price for what Lester contributes to a high revenue club like Boston which can afford to pay a lot of money for WARs. A man can offer a discount - but he can't reasonably be expected to leave that much money on the table in such a seller's market. Lester's willingness to take a discount - or at least the announcement - is an olive branch that he wants to make a deal with Boston. It's not a pledge to work for peanuts because fans find it appealing - it is giving Boston a long reasonable crack at landing him. Boston should take advantage of the opportunity, offer him a deal which he can accept without feeling rightly insulted and get on with the title defense.

 

AJ Burnett has better numbers the past 2 seasons combined. So yes, lets stop laughing. Thanks for adding to my argument

[Palodios]

Santana has a very spotty case history and was probably the worst starter in baseball in 2012. He is having trouble finding a market at his price because he has been terrible in the very recent past. Lee is a good comparison although he got the best contract in his FA group. Garza's injury history brought down his numbers and RA Dickey also had a lot of flaws.

 

In 2012, Lester's ERA was in the 4.80s. Santana's was in the 5.10s. That's not that big of a difference.

[MANNYHOF24]

Lester had 1 bad season. Other than that he has been a 20 million/year pitcher since 2008. I like Lesters build, he probably will be effective until his middle 30's. My only concern is the guy has had zero injury problems. This is normally a great thing but you have to wonder at some point in a 5 year contract if he will need TJS. It's a gamble, but for a guy like Lester,a proven 1A who takes it up to 1 level in the postseason, I pay him. 5 at 100, or maybe 6/110 gets this thing done.

[VA Sox Fan]

Isn't that the point of a message board?

 

Yes Mr. Happy it is. Jacko and I go a long way back on message boards. I love to give him s***. Especially on a non-issue. Cheer up.

[Bellhorn04]

AJ Burnett has better numbers the past 2 seasons combined. So yes, lets stop laughing. Thanks for adding to my argument

 

Get serious. Burnett obviously benefitted hugely from moving to the NL. His career ERA in the AL is 4.39. His ERA with the Yankees was 4.79.

 

'The past 2 seasons' is just one cherry-picked parameter.

[seabeachfred]

To me signing Lester to a new five year contract for $100 million or a little more is as much a no brainer as I can come up with. Buchholz is a terrific pitcher when he isn't on the shelf and you know Lackey will give you everything he has. Look at the rest, though. Is Doubrant ready to match his talent with accomplishments? Is Peavy just jinxed with all sorts of injuries and will Workman really be able to cut it as a quality starter if called upon? Those last three pitchers do raise some questions, and look at the prospects. There is Renaudo and Owens who do project as quality starters for us, but Barnes is injury prone all of a sudden and I cannot stomach the thought of seeing Webster and or Delarosa in our starting rotation unless third or fourth place is our goal. No, we need Lester, a solid lefty, an innings eater, and except for his tragic bout with Lymphoma, a pretty healthy player to have on that mound. With other teams signing their best pitchers to long term contracts, the Red Sox cannot be oddballs and go the other way, especially when the Yankees are out there and willing to throw a ton of money around to sign Jon if he goes free agent. That must NOT happen. Sign the guy!!!!!!!!

[Bellhorn04]

Right on, Fred.

[rjortiz]

5/110 seems like a fair deal.

[SoxSport]

This is the Red Sox, not the Yankees. Lester will sign for $17M range, 5-6 years.

 

Most agents and players know that the money is less outside of NY and LA. And possibly Texas.

That's the real world of TV contracts.

[BSN07]

I actually thought it was a valid issue Jacko presents. I don't consider not having a deal at this point with Lester worrisome. There really is no rush. But signing Lester is not as cut and dry as maybe I and others believed it would be. The landscape of baseball is changing. It's moving towards the youth. With less PED use players 30+ have become crap shoots. Teams are moving the best prospects along at what seems like a quicker pace then it was say 5-10 years ago. It seems like teams are trying to get all they can out of players in their 20's and letting someone else pay for their 30+ years. Tom Verducci wrote a really good article recently on the topic. Also lets consider Lesters work load. That arms has some miles. Denying that is impossible. CC was a workhorse year in and year out until he wasn't. Same goes for Halladay. The wheels are going to come off eventually. And it's more likely to happen in a players 30's.

 

Then there are the SP prospects in the pipeline. While there are no guarantee's the consensus is there are 5-6 legit rotation arms almost MLB ready. If the Sox feel some of those guys could step in and replace Lester's regular season production then why give him 100M+ for his riskier years? The Sox could very well be adopting a similar approach to SP as TB has. Draft, develop and move on when FA arrives. The main difference being the Sox would use the money saved by doing that to supplement the offense and BP and extensions for young players.

[Bellhorn04]

This is the Red Sox, not the Yankees. Lester will sign for $17M range, 5-6 years.

 

Most agents and players know that the money is less outside of NY and LA. And possibly Texas.

That's the real world of TV contracts.

 

Would you stop with the crying poor for the Red Sox? Our payroll this year will be right at the luxury tax threshold, the same as it has been for several years. We're a wealthy team.

[Bellhorn04]

I actually thought it was a valid issue Jacko presents. I don't consider not having a deal at this point with Lester worrisome. There really is no rush. But signing Lester is not as cut and dry as maybe I and others believed it would be. The landscape of baseball is changing. It's moving towards the youth. With less PED use players 30+ have become crap shoots. Teams are moving the best prospects along at what seems like a quicker pace then it was say 5-10 years ago. It seems like teams are trying to get all they can out of players in their 20's and letting someone else pay for their 30+ years. Tom Verducci wrote a really good article recently on the topic. Also lets consider Lesters work load. That arms has some miles. Denying that is impossible. CC was a workhorse year in and year out until he wasn't. Same goes for Halladay. The wheels are going to come off eventually. And it's more likely to happen in a players 30's.

 

Then there are the SP prospects in the pipeline. While there are no guarantee's the consensus is there are 5-6 legit rotation arms almost MLB ready. If the Sox feel some of those guys could step in and replace Lester's regular season production then why give him 100M+ for his riskier years? The Sox could very well be adopting a similar approach to SP as TB has. Draft, develop and move on when FA arrives. The main difference being the Sox would use the money saved by doing that to supplement the offense and BP and extensions for young players.

 

Not quite. We're not TB. Just listen to what Lucchino says. The Red Sox don't like handing out megadeals to FA's but they know it has to be done sometimes. They will take a 'balanced approach', which only makes sense when you're a wealthy team.

 

Lester is a good bet. A big strong lefty who has succeeded in the AL East and just took us to a World Series. Guys like him don't grow on trees. The prospects are just that.

[Palodios]

The Red Six are always going to have a few high salary veterans simply because you can't fill all the holes with controlled young players.

 

There are guys you are willing to spend a little extra for in the later years, and Lester is one of them. Normally I don't care about the Yankee argument,but if he ends up replacing Sabathia the fans will get ugly.

[BSN07]

The Red Six are always going to have a few high salary veterans simply because you can't fill all the holes with controlled young players.

 

There are guys you are willing to spend a little extra for in the later years, and Lester is one of them. Normally I don't care about the Yankee argument,but if he ends up replacing Sabathia the fans will get ugly.

 

Fans will get ugly if he follows the same decline of former LHP horses such as CC and Santana. That and what are the odds he stay's a top of the rotation SP for the duration of the deal? How many mid 30's guys are out there right now you'd consider 1 or a 2? Lee comes to mind. But there are not many. Listen I'm not against extending Lester. I'm just saying the chances of them letting him go are higher and more understandable then many believe and I won't be surprised or overly surprised if that happens.

[Dojji]

Santana debuted several years younger than Lester, and CC had an extra 60 pounds adding wear to his frame. Lester is in shape and only just entering age 30, he should still have several more good years to him.

[a700hitter]

The Red Six are always going to have a few high salary veterans simply because you can't fill all the holes with controlled young players.

 

There are guys you are willing to spend a little extra for in the later years, and Lester is one of them. Normally I don't care about the Yankee argument,but if he ends up replacing Sabathia the fans will get ugly.

And it would be justifiable.

[Palodios]

Fans will get ugly if he follows the same decline of former LHP horses such as CC and Santana. That and what are the odds he stay's a top of the rotation SP for the duration of the deal? How many mid 30's guys are out there right now you'd consider 1 or a 2? Lee comes to mind. But there are not many. Listen I'm not against extending Lester. I'm just saying the chances of them letting him go are higher and more understandable then many believe and I won't be surprised or overly surprised if that happens.

 

The Red Sox paid 13 million for Dempster in 2013. Adjusted for baseball inflation, 20 million in 2019 for a 200 inning eater in with a 4.50 ERA isn't that big a deal. The Red Sox would be paying for his prime years by overpaying for his older years, but his veteran years might not necessarily be that terrible. We've seen what happens when a team loses veteran presence after Wakefield/Varitek retired and Beckett became the team's leader. After 2013's World Series run, I get the feeling Lester earned the respect of all of baseball, and there is definitely significant value in that.

[sk7326]

In 2012, Lester's ERA was in the 4.80s. Santana's was in the 5.10s. That's not that big of a difference.

 

FIP of 1.5 runs better for Lester. Santana hung up a 5.1 ERA in one of the best pitcher's parks in the bigs. Lester had some terrible homerun luck in 2012 and still cranked out nearly 30 innings more than Santana. ERA is a very small part of the story there. Lester had an off season. Santana was hide your eyes awful. Lester was still 4 fWINS better than Santana in 2012.