Will Red Sox pursue Japanese Ace - Masahiro Tanaka?

[sk7326]

But it pales next to the value delivered by Pedro's 7 years with the Red Sox.

 

Well you do touch on something here. You can get more peak in general by trading for one of those sorts of guys. It is rare for a guy to get to unrestricted free agency these days who are going to be that hot a commodity (it's why I advocate for calling Seattle and kicking the tires on King Felix). In a sense it is one of the things buoying Tanaka's candidacy - how often do 25 year old ANYTHINGS get to the free agent market here? You get some of the Latino free agents who aren't close to the bigs, but that's about it.

[Palodios]

But it pales next to the value delivered by Pedro's 7 years with the Red Sox.

 

Find me a contract that doesn't pale in comparison to Pedro's contract with the Sox.

[User Name]

Find me a contract that doesn't pale in comparison to Pedro's contract with the Sox.

 

David Ortiz.

[sk7326]

David Ortiz.

 

It is an underreported story when talking about Ortiz' legacy. He is probably the greatest free agent pickup in baseball history - almost certainly the greatest "non-tender" .

[Bellhorn04]

It is an underreported story when talking about Ortiz' legacy. He is probably the greatest free agent pickup in baseball history - almost certainly the greatest "non-tender" .

 

It boggles the mind that he could have been a Twin for a number of years. One of those history-changing blunders in baseball history.

 

2003...we sign Ortiz for nothing.

 

Early 2004...we come within an eyelash of trading Manny for A-Rod.

 

You can't make this s*** up.

[Palodios]

David Ortiz.

 

Pedro is arguably the best ever. While very very good and insanely good, I don't think anyone would say the same thing about Ortiz.

[User Name]

Pedro is arguably the best ever. While very very good and insanely good, I don't think anyone would say the same thing about Ortiz.

 

For 80 million dollars, David Ortiz gave the Red Sox 8 years of 286 /.386/.572 .958 OPS, 144 OPS + baseball with 291 HR's and 1,141 games played. Not best ever, but absolutely mind-boggling value for an everyday player, even as a DH.

[Palodios]

For 80 million dollars, David Ortiz gave the Red Sox 8 years of 286 /.386/.572 .958 OPS, 144 OPS + baseball with 291 HR's and 1,141 games played. Not best ever, but absolutely mind-boggling value for an everyday player, even as a DH.

 

I'm not saying Ortiz wasn't a complete f***ing steal, just that Pedro is in a league of his own.

[marklmw]

I'm not saying Ortiz wasn't a complete f***ing steal, just that Pedro is in a league of his own.

 

Ortiz was part of 3 championships ... pretty great stuff there!

[SoxSport]

I doubt they will be serious bidders. They hardly have any room for the pitching prospects they have. The question is what they do with Dempster--they need his spot in the rotation. Cherington will have to get creative to unload him.

[Dojji]

Ortiz was part of 3 championships ... pretty great stuff there!

 

Pedro was part of teams more than once that he was literally the only reason they finished over .500

[marklmw]

Pedro was part of teams more than once that he was literally the only reason they finished over .500

True that Dojji but at the end of the day in professional sports ... no prizes for finishing 2nd.

[marklmw]

For 80 million dollars, David Ortiz gave the Red Sox 8 years of 286 /.386/.572 .958 OPS, 144 OPS + baseball with 291 HR's and 1,141 games played. Not best ever, but absolutely mind-boggling value for an everyday player, even as a DH.

Agree ... who does this ... it might be harder to hit as a DH then to be hit while playing in the field. Ortiz seemed to do pretty well at the plate against the Cards while playing 1B.

[sk7326]

Keith Law's Top 50 FAs are here (Insider needed) http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9862934/robinson-cano-tops-year-free-agent-rankings-mlb ...

 

Tanaka the #3 FA, top pitcher, the blurb (obviously fair use prevents from pasting entire piece):

 

 

Way too much is being made of Tanaka's won-loss record this year for Rakuten -- as if we still haven't learned how utterly useless a measure that is of individual pitcher performance, 24 years after Storm Davis went 19-7 with a 4.36 ERA -- but he is the best free-agent starter available.

 

Comparisons to Yu Darvish are unfortunate, and wrong, but if we must keep to former NPB players, Hiroki Kuroda is a better fit: A potential No. 2 starter with outstanding control and at least one above-average to plus off-speed weapon to miss bats.

 

Tanaka used to pitch away from contact, but in the past two years, he has become more aggressive within the zone with his fastball, and his splitter is a solid 60 on the 20-80 scale. His fastball sits in the low 90s, and his slider will flash above-average to plus, while he mixes in a below-average curveball and a cutter, the same "kitchen-sink" approach pitchers often use in NPB but have to simplify when they come to MLB.

 

Tanaka's delivery doesn't include as much hip rotation as many pitchers developed in Japan; he hides the ball behind him but doesn't generate much torque, and he's got a big hook in the back of his delivery. He also missed a month with an undisclosed injury in spring 2012, which has to be a concern given his high workloads dating to high school.

 

The optimistic view of Tanaka sees incredible control and at least one pitch, possibly two, to miss MLB hitters' bats, making him worth the $15 million-plus it'll take in annual salary to sign him. There are absolutely reasons for skepticism here, but the same holds true for every free-agent starter on this list.

[marklmw]

Wow I clearly missed that.

 

That's silly. JBJ will be fine. I'm not going to get started on that because I don't want to hijack this thread but yeah, that's silly.

 

JBJ will be fine ... if he were with another club we would be trying to get him. We have him ... be happy and relax ... Bogaerts and JBJ are Boston's future and there are more to come from the farm in the next 2 years. Ellsbury is long gone and we wish him well.

[marklmw]

Keith Law's Top 50 FAs are here (Insider needed) http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9862934/robinson-cano-tops-year-free-agent-rankings-mlb ...

 

What is the thinking of these high school baseball coached in Japan? Very strange indeed.

[Dojji]

I'm under the impression that those high end high school tournaments are Japan's version of NCAA football bowl games. A huge national event in their own rights.

[marklmw]

I'm under the impression that those high end high school tournaments are Japan's version of NCAA football bowl games. A huge national event in their own rights.

 

If I am a coach I am not going to blow out a kids arm for the sake of a title.

[Dojji]

If you're a coach in The Big Game, the question frequently centers around how hard you're going to try to hold the kid back, not how hard you're going to try to push him forward.

[sk7326]

If I am a coach I am not going to blow out a kids arm for the sake of a title.

 

There are few amateur events with that sort of cache here. But we see coaches do this stuff all the time in the College World Series. Hell, the Chinese federation kept holding Yao to his national team commitments despite his NBA career, and you saw the impact that had. Just some cultural expectation which I get but it can have a negative impact.

 

After all, Dice-K was 26 when the Sox won his bidding, and then a TJ candidate 4 years later. Not saying Tanaka is headed down that road obviously, but the early usage patterns of a lot of the really good NPB guys is worth noting. As I said earlier, a 25 year old free agent pitcher with some #2 ceiling (and #2 in scouting parlance still could be a staff's #1) is innately very interesting - but the risk is considerable.

[marklmw]

If you're a coach in The Big Game, the question frequently centers around how hard you're going to try to hold the kid back, not how hard you're going to try to push him forward.

 

Counting pitches isn't all that hard.

[marklmw]

There are few amateur events with that sort of cache here. But we see coaches do this stuff all the time in the College World Series. Hell, the Chinese federation kept holding Yao to his national team commitments despite his NBA career, and you saw the impact that had. Just some cultural expectation which I get but it can have a negative impact.

 

After all, Dice-K was 26 when the Sox won his bidding, and then a TJ candidate 4 years later. Not saying Tanaka is headed down that road obviously, but the early usage patterns of a lot of the really good NPB guys is worth noting. As I said earlier, a 25 year old free agent pitcher with some #2 ceiling (and #2 in scouting parlance still could be a staff's #1) is innately very interesting - but the risk is considerable.

 

One condition I would have in his contract is that the only team he pitches for is Boston ... period.

[Dojji]

Counting pitches isn't all that hard.

 

I didnt' say it was, but when the kid doesn't want to come out, it can be a hard call to pull him.

[sk7326]

I didnt' say it was, but when the kid doesn't want to come out, it can be a hard call to pull him.

 

Oh you're putting the blame in the wrong spot here. It is the coaches who want to be known as winners. The kids, you can't count on them to say no. There is the repercussions from the coach and the fear of being called a wuss by his teammates. Coaches in those settings often have precisely the incorrect incentives.

[sk7326]

One condition I would have in his contract is that the only team he pitches for is Boston ... period.

 

Hard to tell him not to pitch in a WBC - although there pitch counts are monitored.

[marklmw]

Hard to tell him not to pitch in a WBC - although there pitch counts are monitored.

 

He would not be told ... he would be signing a contract for mega dollars and the contract would be prohibiting him from playing in WBC.

[sk7326]

He would not be told ... he would be signing a contract for mega dollars and the contract would be prohibiting him from playing in WBC.

 

Also considering MLB runs the WBC, that is probably not something that is bound to happen ... it's money that the teams get to keep also.

[sk7326]

What IS interesting, and one of the deeper areas of the Top 50 is the "Dempster diving" (pun fully intended) - a good number of pitchers with some solid "depth starter" upside who should not require a giant commitment. Among them:

 

Paul Maholm, Josh Johnson, Scott Kazmir, Dan Haren, Tim Hudson ... Phil Hughes and Jason Hammel more a prime candidate for a relief conversion

 

Jesse Crain, Grant Balfour, Joe Nathan are interesting relief options although the price could spiral too high quickly there

[SoxSport]

I doubt this one. Unless they can persuade some Japanese team to take Dempster. One of those prospects will likely be ready, and there is already a logjam in the rotation.

[sk7326]

I doubt this one. Unless they can persuade some Japanese team to take Dempster. One of those prospects will likely be ready, and there is already a logjam in the rotation.

 

Both Barnes and Owens are plausible - De La Rosa less so, Ranaudo probably a better bullpen candidate. I am thinking they are much more inclined to look at one of the non-tenders like Hudson or Haren who can be had for short money or a year.

 

That said, kicking the tires on Brett Anderson is worthwhile - he is a gamble but if the cost is not too high, one with a very very high potential return.