Will Red Sox pursue Japanese Ace - Masahiro Tanaka?

[vjcsmoke]

If there is one axiom of baseball that has remained true, it seems to be - "You can never have enough good starting pitching."

 

We saw this happen in the postseason this year. Add to that axion - "You can never have enough good relief pitching."

 

Boston's combo of relief pitchers headlined by Tazawa and Uehara slammed the door shut more times than not, especially when the game was on the line.

 

Outside of Lester, Lackey, though, there were genuine concerns about who would pitch game 7.

 

Buccholz looked like toast after he struggled to post 4 innings of gutsy pitching.

 

And of course you never know when injuries will strike.

 

With the recent success of Japanese pitchers such as Yu Darvish, Uehara, and Tazawa, it has become clear that Japanese nationals CAN make the transition to the MLB with great success.

 

The question is, how successful will Tanaka be, and will he be worth the 'posting fee'. Another factor in Tanaka's pursuit is the reported high interest by the NY Yankees. If the Red Sox obtain Tanaka they will not only strengthen their rotation, but they prevent a division foe from getting better as well.

 

If the Red Sox scouting department believes Tanaka will be a pitcher in the same tier as a Yu Dervish, the Red Sox should give a very serious pursuit. If Tanaka lives up to expections he may well make the difference in chasing consecutive World Series championships. And having both Uehara and Tazawa here already will likely ease Tanaka's transition to the Majors.

 

Reading material:

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/japanese-ace-masahiro-tanaka-will-make-historic-money-but-questions-abound-171014762.html

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/los-angeles/dodger-report/post/_/id/8209/the-costs-and-benefits-of-pursuing-masahiro-tanaka

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/undefeated-japanese-ace-masahiro-tanaka-could-spark-mlb-free-agency-bidding-war-101113

[Thunder]

We're talking about this in the 2014 roster predictions thread.

[sk7326]

1. Posting system agreement needs to be reached. We are almost there, but not quite per reports.

2. Given the precedent set by Darvish and Matsuzaka, a $50M+ post is expected whether or not Tanaka is worth it. He has the superficial numbers, and there is a precedent.

3. The new posting process PROBABLY will give the player some input into where he goes - that could impact the number of bidders.

4. From scouting reports I've read, from some of the Sickels/Law sort of types - the numbers are amazing, but Tanaka is more Kuroda than anything if you want to make a Japanese comparison. BTW: the actual Kuroda would be a FA I'd take a hard look at in real life. Is that worth an investment comparable to Darvish? It seems less of an open case that Tanaka will achieve true #1 level like Darvish.

[marklmw]

1. Posting system agreement needs to be reached. We are almost there, but not quite per reports.

2. Given the precedent set by Darvish and Matsuzaka, a $50M+ post is expected whether or not Tanaka is worth it. He has the superficial numbers, and there is a precedent.

3. The new posting process PROBABLY will give the player some input into where he goes - that could impact the number of bidders.

4. From scouting reports I've read, from some of the Sickels/Law sort of types - the numbers are amazing, but Tanaka is more Kuroda than anything if you want to make a Japanese comparison. BTW: the actual Kuroda would be a FA I'd take a hard look at in real life. Is that worth an investment comparable to Darvish? It seems less of an open case that Tanaka will achieve true #1 level like Darvish.

 

It has been my contention for a while now that obtaining Tanaka in the off season might be the most important upgrade that Boston could achieve. I hate to see Ellsbury or Drew leave the club but acquiring Tanaka for his prime years (next 5-6) would greatly lesson the pain. It would allow Boston to deal Dempster and Peavy for prospects and shed some payroll at the same time (Boston will need to eat some of their salaries for 2014). If they cannot move Peavy he would be an expensive but legit # 5.

[sk7326]

It has been my contention for a while now that obtaining Tanaka in the off season might be the most important upgrade that Boston could achieve. I hate to see Ellsbury or Drew leave the club but acquiring Tanaka for his prime years (next 5-6) would greatly lesson the pain. It would allow Boston to deal Dempster and Peavy for prospects and shed some payroll at the same time (Boston will need to eat some of their salaries for 2014). If they cannot move Peavy he would be an expensive but legit # 5.

 

Maybe - I am more comfortable with going after Kuroda if you want more depth

[marklmw]

Maybe - I am more comfortable with going after Kuroda if you want more depth[/quote

Kuroda is 38 ... at best only 1 year left in him. He also wants to go back home to finish is career ... probably the best long term move for his future after playing.

[Dojji]

I don't think Boston goes after Tanaka. Maybe we should if you were looking at iit with a structly clerical, administrative fashion, but if you think we should be the one who's rolling high to bring in Tanaka, riddle me this: Which one of Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Peavy and Doubront isn't pitching if Tanaka is?

 

That's a question with 5 bad answers.

 

In a vacuum, without finance and opportunity costs in the picture, you might consider Doubront, but even Doubront isn't a bad bet to produce at an average or better rate next year, meaning anything you gain from Tanaka is gained over a stable of pitchers that's already pretty good -- not the best time to be sinking a lot of money into pitching. Especially when we already have to clear Dempster off the payroll this year.

 

There's better ways to use the same money, such as a short term flier on Beltran to help ballast out our offensive outfield, or looking at options at third base, shortstop and catcher to shore up potential weaknesses there due to the inexperience of the players we're currently going into the season with at those positions. And there's every chance that a more conventional #6 is closer to a match for our needs, for example Chad Gaudin, who can probably be had far less expensively.

 

I'm more interested in innings than ace-type performance, to be frank about it, and that's exactly what I'm less sure a Japanese import is going to be able to give us in year one as he adjusts to the different rotation model. We need 200 innings far more than we need a high ERA+ number, and we can get that for a fair bit less than we'd pay for Tanaka..

[marklmw]

I don't think Boston goes after Tanaka. Maybe we should if you were looking at iit with a structly clerical, administrative fashion, but if you think we should be the one who's rolling high to bring in Tanaka, riddle me this: Which one of Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Peavy and Doubront isn't pitching if Tanaka is?

 

That's a question with 5 bad answers.

 

In a vacuum, without finance and opportunity costs in the picture, you might consider Doubront, but even Doubront isn't a bad bet to produce at an average or better rate next year, meaning anything you gain from Tanaka is gained over a stable of pitchers that's already pretty good -- not the best time to be sinking a lot of money into pitching. Especially when we already have to clear Dempster off the payroll this year.

 

There's better ways to use the same money, such as a short term flier on Beltran to help ballast out our offensive outfield, or looking at options at third base, shortstop and catcher to shore up potential weaknesses there due to the inexperience of the players we're currently going into the season with at those positions. And there's every chance that a more conventional #6 is closer to a match for our needs, for example Chad Gaudin, who can probably be had far less expensively.

 

I'm more interested in innings than ace-type performance, to be frank about it, and that's exactly what I'm less sure a Japanese import is going to be able to give us in year one as he adjusts to the different rotation model. We need 200 innings far more than we need a high ERA+ number, and we can get that for a fair bit less than we'd pay for Tanaka..

 

Doji. I think that vjcsmoke summed up the Sox SP situation fairly accurately. Lester is back next season ... after that who knows. Buch was hurt for much of the season and he did not finish strong in the playoffs. If you are only looking to next season maybe we do not need a player like Tanaka but if you want to look out 5 or 6 years I think we could definitely use him. Looking to the 2014 season the Sox are going to have some offensive drop off if we loose Ellsbury, Salty, Drew, Napoli. One way to offset a drop in offense is to improve upon your teams starting pitching and bull-pen.

[User Name]

Tanaka is more of a question mark than anyone currently penciled into our rotation.

[marklmw]

Tanaka is more of a question mark than anyone currently penciled into our rotation.

Easy to say UN ... Buch is not a question mark due to his health issues? Dempster is predicable I give you that .... we know he is going to suck. Lester is on the roster for next season only ... do you think that Sox will give him the big contract after that ... not very predictable if you ask me.

[User Name]

Easy to say UN ... Buch is not a question mark due to his health issues? Dempster is predicable I give you that .... we know he is going to suck. Lester is on the roster for next season only ... do you think that Sox will give him the big contract after that ... not very predictable if you ask me.

 

Yeah but Tanaka has yet to throw a single MLB pitch. You have a general idea of what each of the six guys currently on the roster are capable of, what their weaknesses are and their health/durability issues. We know none of this about Tanaka, so logically, he's a bigger question mark.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I just really don't see the need for this guy.

 

You've got Lester, Buch, Lackey, Doubront, and Peavy next season.

 

Given, you potentially lose Lester and Peavy in 2015, and Lackey in 2016, but you've also got Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, and Ball all coming up, not to mention Webster and Workman. I know Webster struggled but he also was in his first year above AA this year. Nobody is giving up on JBJ because he struggled. We just chalk it up to him being a rookie and needing some more development. Same situation with Webby. Plus you've got a lot of under the radar guys like Brian Johnson, who got hit in the futures at Fenway game in 2012 but other than that has been absolutely excellent (career 2.38 era in the minors, drafted in the 1st round of 2011).

 

The Sox farm right now is loaded with talent. There is no reason to allocate funds to an area with no need.

[User Name]

I just really don't see the need for this guy.

 

You've got Lester, Buch, Lackey, Doubront, and Peavy next season.

 

Given, you potentially lose Lester and Peavy in 2015, and Lackey in 2016, but you've also got Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, and Ball all coming up, not to mention Webster and Workman. I know Webster struggled but he also was in his first year above AA this year. Nobody is giving up on JBJ because he struggled. We just chalk it up to him being a rookie and needing some more development. Same situation with Webby. Plus you've got a lot of under the radar guys like Brian Johnson, who got hit in the futures at Fenway game in 2012 but other than that has been absolutely excellent (career 2.38 era in the minors, drafted in the 1st round of 2011).

 

The Sox farm right now is loaded with talent. There is no reason to allocate funds to an area with no need.

 

You haven't been reading this site a lot lately have you? The "JBJ can't make contact" brigade is out in full force, led by Dojji. There seems to be a tendency around here to exaggerate certain player's issues in order to "pimp" another player (be it a FA or departing player) that just doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

[redsoxfan3]

Yeah but Tanaka has yet to throw a single MLB pitch. You have a general idea of what each of the six guys currently on the roster are capable of, what their weaknesses are and their health/durability issues. We know none of this about Tanaka, so logically, he's a bigger question mark.

 

This...

 

I just really don't see the need for this guy.

 

You've got Lester, Buch, Lackey, Doubront, and Peavy next season.

 

Given, you potentially lose Lester and Peavy in 2015, and Lackey in 2016, but you've also got Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, and Ball all coming up, not to mention Webster and Workman. I know Webster struggled but he also was in his first year above AA this year. Nobody is giving up on JBJ because he struggled. We just chalk it up to him being a rookie and needing some more development. Same situation with Webby. Plus you've got a lot of under the radar guys like Brian Johnson, who got hit in the futures at Fenway game in 2012 but other than that has been absolutely excellent (career 2.38 era in the minors, drafted in the 1st round of 2011).

 

The Sox farm right now is loaded with talent. There is no reason to allocate funds to an area with no need.

 

...and this is exactly how I feel. Tanaka could turn out to be a great pitcher and we could say that we could have potentially have made a mistake by not signing him, but is the posting fee and the money that it will cost to sign him worth the risk? If we only had four starting pitchers, I would be all for going after Tanaka. This guy has been rumored at around $150 million in expenses. Remember Dice-K? Before someone ridicules me for that, I am bringing up the point that we do not know how his stuff will translate into the majors. It is a big investment.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You haven't been reading this site a lot lately have you? The "JBJ can't make contact" brigade is out in full force, led by Dojji. There seems to be a tendency around here to exaggerate certain player's issues in order to "pimp" another player (be it a FA or departing player) that just doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

 

Wow I clearly missed that.

 

That's silly. JBJ will be fine. I'm not going to get started on that because I don't want to hijack this thread but yeah, that's silly.

[vjcsmoke]

I don't think Boston goes after Tanaka. Maybe we should if you were looking at iit with a structly clerical, administrative fashion, but if you think we should be the one who's rolling high to bring in Tanaka, riddle me this: Which one of Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Peavy and Doubront isn't pitching if Tanaka is?

 

That's a question with 5 bad answers.

 

Seriously? 5 bad answers? Let's examine that starting 5 in the upcoming 2014 season:

 

1. Jon Lester - Age 30. Has proved himself to be the staff ace in the playoffs. Will need to be PAID BIG to be extended longterm because he has a buyout option in his contract.

 

2. Clay Buccholz - Age 29. Finally had an elite first half of the season. But broke down due to injuries. Has only pitched over 150 innings in 2 out of his 7 seasons at the professional level. Injury RISK.

 

3. John Lackey - Age 35. Clearly has turned the corner and put on some gutsy playoff performances. His career 4.04 era and 1.32 WHIP make him a strong #3 pitcher but certainly no ace. Club option in 2015. An aging player, who can hopefully give us a couple more good years but may need to be replaced soon.

 

4. Jake Peavy - Age 33. He played solid in the regular season. But he was pretty bad in the playoffs. There's no way we wanted to give him the ball in game 7 and if we did it would have been with a very short leash. Another aging player who will hopefully give us another couple of decent seasons.

 

5. Felix Doubront - Age 26. An improving young pitcher. However he owns career ERA of 4.62 and career WHIP of 1.455. Hard to see him as anything other than a back of the rotation/bullpen pitcher unless he makes drastic strides next season.

 

So 3 out of those 5 pitchers 30+ years old, 1 is injury prone, and 1 is young unproven and unspectacular.

 

I think there is ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT.

 

The thing about Tanaka is that he has proven himself as a #1 pitcher in his country and he is only going to be 25 if/when the Red Sox sign him.

Is he going to be the next Yu Darvish? Not exactly. He's a different type of pitcher. I don't think he will post that crazy strikeout rate but he does have a chance to be really good.

I mean his money pitch is the splitter and Uehara has shown just how devastating that splitfinger can be against major league batters.

 

 

I don't know if we will succeed in signing Tanaka, but I think the Red Sox should definitely investigate that option and see if it's possible.

Repeating WS titles is VERY tough, and we will need to make a few key additions if the Red Sox want to successfully defend their title.

Edited November 4, 2013 by vjcsmoke

[marklmw]

I just really don't see the need for this guy.

 

You've got Lester, Buch, Lackey, Doubront, and Peavy next season.

 

Given, you potentially lose Lester and Peavy in 2015, and Lackey in 2016, but you've also got Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, and Ball all coming up, not to mention Webster and Workman. I know Webster struggled but he also was in his first year above AA this year. Nobody is giving up on JBJ because he struggled. We just chalk it up to him being a rookie and needing some more development. Same situation with Webby. Plus you've got a lot of under the radar guys like Brian Johnson, who got hit in the futures at Fenway game in 2012 but other than that has been absolutely excellent (career 2.38 era in the minors, drafted in the 1st round of 2011).

 

The Sox farm right now is loaded with talent. There is no reason to allocate funds to an area with no need.

 

Do you not think that Tanaka could be a huge improvement over Peavy, Dubrount or an unhealthy Buchholz? The real cost to Tanaka is the posting fee ... we have owners who are very good business people ... I guess that they will decide. If we sign Tanaka it makes Boston stronger and the Yankees weaker ... that is worth something in and of itself. Do not be surprised if you see Ellsbury in Pinstripes next year.

[SoxFanForsyth]

What's funny is that Bogaerts K'd 26% of the time vs Bradley's 29%. The samples are so small that this amounts to a mere 3 Ks for JBJ.

 

Seems ridiculous that he can't make contact and Bogaerts will be fine. If Bogaerts K's 1 more time he's got the same K rate as Bradley, but nobody is worked up about him.

 

JBJ had a 73.4 contact % and Bogaerts had a 76.3 contact %, a mere 2.9% difference.

 

Anyway, I digress. Just wanted to make my point. Sorry for the distraction. Carry on.

[vjcsmoke]

Do you not think that Tanaka could be a huge improvement over Peavy, Dubrount or an unhealthy Buchholz? The real cost to Tanaka is the posting fee ... we have owners who are very good business people ... I guess that they will decide. If we sign Tanaka it makes Boston stronger and the Yankees weaker ... that is worth something in and of itself. Do not be surprised if you see Ellsbury in Pinstripes next year.

 

Not to mention, don't forget that the posting fee DOES NOT COUNT against the Red Sox salary payroll. Therefore they won't have to worry about bumping up against the luxury cap by bidding on Tanaka. Merely offloading a lesser pitcher like Dempster will offer either a straight swap of salary or even an overall salary DEDUCTION on the payroll.

[Palodios]

I get the feeling Tanaka goes to the Yanks. They have the money, and their starting pitching sees a large dropoff after Sabathia/Nova, especially if they lose Kuroda to retirement/Japan. They also seem reluctant to empty the farm, or dump their draft picks, so Tanaka is the more talented guy they can add.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Do you not think that Tanaka could be a huge improvement over Peavy, Dubrount or an unhealthy Buchholz? The real cost to Tanaka is the posting fee ... we have owners who are very good business people ... I guess that they will decide. If we sign Tanaka it makes Boston stronger and the Yankees weaker ... that is worth something in and of itself. Do not be surprised if you see Ellsbury in Pinstripes next year.

 

You don't make moves based on what the Yankees do or don't do. That's bad business.

 

Would he make the Sox better? Potentially. But you don't address areas of depth and strength for a mild tick upgrade.

 

Doubront is a good pitcher. You have to swallow lumps with these guys and next year should be a breakout year for Doubront, after a very nice development season.

 

The fact is that there are teams who need Tanaka much more than the Sox, which will drive up the price well outside of the price the Sox would pay.

 

It just makes no sense when the Sox have substantial high end depth.

 

The Sox need to look at 1B, C, and RP. SP is not a need.

[vjcsmoke]

I get the feeling Tanaka goes to the Yanks. They have the money, and their starting pitching sees a large dropoff after Sabathia/Nova, especially if they lose Kuroda to retirement/Japan. They also seem reluctant to empty the farm, or dump their draft picks, so Tanaka is the more talented guy they can add.

 

What I hear is that the posting system might be reformed to allow the player to be sold more input on the process. So if Tanaka has a choice between bidders [assuming that both bids are relatively close and acceptable] it is quite possible he might choose the Red Sox over the Yankees considering that the Sox just won the World Series and the Yanks didn't even make the postseason.

[marklmw]

Seriously? 5 bad answers? Let's examine that starting 5 in the upcoming 2014 season:

 

1. Jon Lester - Age 30. Has proved himself to be the staff ace in the playoffs. Will need to be PAID BIG to be extended longterm because he has a buyout option in his contract.

 

2. Clay Buccholz - Age 29. Finally had an elite first half of the season. But broke down due to injuries. Has only pitched over 150 innings in 2 out of his 7 seasons at the professional level. Injury RISK.

 

3. John Lackey - Age 35. Clearly has turned the corner and put on some gutsy playoff performances. His career 4.04 era and 1.32 WHIP make him a strong #3 pitcher but certainly no ace. Club option in 2015. An aging player, who can hopefully give us a couple more good years but may need to be replaced soon.

 

4. Jake Peavy - Age 33. He played solid in the regular season. But he was pretty bad in the playoffs. There's no way we wanted to give him the ball in game 7 and if we did it would have been with a very short leash. Another aging player who will hopefully give us another couple of decent seasons.

 

5. Felix Doubront - Age 26. An improving young pitcher. However he owns career ERA of 4.62 and career WHIP of 1.455. Hard to see him as anything other than a back of the rotation/bullpen pitcher unless he makes drastic strides next season.

 

So 3 out of those 5 pitchers 30+ years old, 1 is injury prone, and 1 is young unproven and unspectacular.

 

I think there is ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT.

 

The thing about Tanaka is that he has proven himself as a #1 pitcher in his country and he is only going to be 25 if/when the Red Sox sign him.

Is he going to be the next Yu Darvish? Not exactly. He's a different type of pitcher. I don't think he will post that crazy strikeout rate but he does have a chance to be really good.

I mean his money pitch is the splitter and Uehara has shown just how devastating that splitfinger can be against major league batters.

 

 

I don't know if we will succeed in signing Tanaka, but I think the Red Sox should definitely investigate that option and see if it's possible.

Repeating WS titles is VERY tough, and we will need to make a few key additions if the Red Sox want to successfully defend their title.

 

I commend you on the a very accurate breakdown. Tanaka might just become a number 1 and it will help management a lot when dealing with an extension for Lester. I have a feeling that Henry Owens will be the next quality SP to come from the farm.

[marklmw]

What I hear is that the posting system might be reformed to allow the player to be sold more input on the process. So if Tanaka has a choice between bidders [assuming that both bids are relatively close and acceptable] it is quite possible he might choose the Red Sox over the Yankees considering that the Sox just won the World Series and the Yanks didn't even make the postseason.

That would be nice but the Yankees are still the Yankees ... the club with the most championships. I do think that if Boston has the highest bid he probably would not say no.

[marklmw]

I get the feeling Tanaka goes to the Yanks. They have the money, and their starting pitching sees a large dropoff after Sabathia/Nova, especially if they lose Kuroda to retirement/Japan. They also seem reluctant to empty the farm, or dump their draft picks, so Tanaka is the more talented guy they can add.

I came upon an article where baseball people were predicting where the free agents were heading. The vast majority had Ellsbury with the Cubs and Tanaka with Texas.

[SoxFanForsyth]

From everything I'm hearing, the Yanks, Dodgers, and Sox are the 3 big leaders on Tanaka (Mark Saxon reporting this).

 

I wouldn't be pissed if we got him, I just don't think he should be a priority or that the Sox should drop a lot of money on him when there are other areas that could use upgrades much more than SP

[vjcsmoke]

That would be nice but the Yankees are still the Yankees ... the club with the most championships. I do think that if Boston has the highest bid he probably would not say no.

 

True it's hard to tell which way Tanaka would lean right now. I think he's just trying to focus on his team's playoffs right now. The surest way to win is to get the highest bid, BUT again we don't know how the posting system will change. Still a lot of ways this could go. But I think the Red Sox will do due diligence to investigate all reasonable avenues of improving their team.

 

BTW I just found out that Tanaka's team, the Tohoku Golden Eagles just defeated the Yomiuri Giants to win the NPB championship.

http://www.ibaf.org/en/news/2013/11/03/tohoku-rakuten-golden-eagles-win-2013-npb-champion/075678ce-7dae-410d-bfa6-6ae60cbd7da0

 

Now that their postseason is over, I expect to see more news soon about where Tanaka might be heading next.

[marklmw]

I hope that the Sox go after Tanaka just like I wanted them to go after Abreu. I do believe that the ChiSox got a very good deal ... they invested nada in Abreu until the actual contract and gave up zero prospects as well. What is the average cost to draft a player, sign him and have him make it to the big's taken into consideration all the players that do not make it.

 

I would love to see the following rotation next year.

1. Lester

2. Buchholz

3. Tanaka

4. Lackey

5. Doubront

 

Deal Dempster and Peavy for prospects and salary dump. Let the lads on the farm, Workman, Webster, Owens fill in as needed. Gives the youngsters more opportunity to develop against big league hitters.

[User Name]

I don't understand the desire to dump Peavy. If healthy, he has the potential to be a #2 pitching out of the 4/5 slot.

[marklmw]

I don't understand the desire to dump Peavy. If healthy, he has the potential to be a #2 pitching out of the 4/5 slot.

 

For prospects and salary dump. I believe Peavy is due 17M in 2014 and as you say he is a number 2 (not sure I agree with that) and teams are looking for # 2's. Many ownerships are not willing to part with the posting fee for Tanaka. After the fee is paid the Sox will most likely be able to sign Tanaka for less than what either Dempster or Peavy will be earning next season. Do you realize that the Sox will be paying Peavy and Dempster around 30M next season for the pair. Tanaka is younger and better than either one and if the Sox do get to the post season next year I would rather have the upside of Tanaka then counting on either of the two.