2014 Roster Projections

[Hoplite]

Cherington said today that he's done with the "heavy lifting" and is now in "opportunistic mode" where he'll look to upgrade the tweak the roster and move a player (presumably a pitcher) if he's presented with the right offer. I assume that means that we won't be adding any more big name free agents, but that's fine. According to second order wins, we should have won 100 games last year. We're replacing Ellsbury (5.8 WAR) with JBJ (projected 2.1-2.9 wins according to Steamer or Oliver) and Salty with AJ (1.6 WAR difference according to the same projections). That would make us a roughly 95 team.

 

There are players you could point to who are likely to decline, and disasters like Hanrahan, Aceves, Ciriaco, etc. who you can point to that we'll be likely to avoid.

[marklmw]

Cherington said today that he's done with the "heavy lifting" and is now in "opportunistic mode" where he'll look to upgrade the tweak the roster and move a player (presumably a pitcher) if he's presented with the right offer. I assume that means that we won't be adding any more big name free agents, but that's fine. According to second order wins, we should have won 100 games last year. We're replacing Ellsbury (5.8 WAR) with JBJ (projected 2.1-2.9 wins according to Steamer or Oliver) and Salty with AJ (1.6 WAR difference according to the same projections). That would make us a roughly 95 team.

 

There are players you could point to who are likely to decline, and disasters like Hanrahan, Aceves, Ciriaco, etc. who you can point to that we'll be likely to avoid.

 

I think that you are forgetting that we had a very low WAR from 3B last season that is projected to increase greatly this season. I think it will be a long shot to land Drew based on the number of years Drew will want and the number that Boston is willing to give with Cecchini replacing Bogaerts as our top non-pitching prospect.

Edited December 8, 2013 by marklmw

[SoxFanForsyth]

Cherington said today that he's done with the "heavy lifting" and is now in "opportunistic mode" where he'll look to upgrade the tweak the roster and move a player (presumably a pitcher) if he's presented with the right offer. I assume that means that we won't be adding any more big name free agents, but that's fine. According to second order wins, we should have won 100 games last year. We're replacing Ellsbury (5.8 WAR) with JBJ (projected 2.1-2.9 wins according to Steamer or Oliver) and Salty with AJ (1.6 WAR difference according to the same projections). That would make us a roughly 95 team.

 

There are players you could point to who are likely to decline, and disasters like Hanrahan, Aceves, Ciriaco, etc. who you can point to that we'll be likely to avoid.

 

Yup. To me, this points to the Sox trading for Kemp, but only if the Dodgers agree to the Sox terms. If not, no big deal.

 

I do hope that they haven't given up on Rajai Davis, though.

[a700hitter]

Cherington said today that he's done with the "heavy lifting" and is now in "opportunistic mode" where he'll look to upgrade the tweak the roster and move a player (presumably a pitcher) if he's presented with the right offer. I assume that means that we won't be adding any more big name free agents, but that's fine. According to second order wins, we should have won 100 games last year. We're replacing Ellsbury (5.8 WAR) with JBJ (projected 2.1-2.9 wins according to Steamer or Oliver) and Salty with AJ (1.6 WAR difference according to the same projections). That would make us a roughly 95 team.

 

There are players you could point to who are likely to decline, and disasters like Hanrahan, Aceves, Ciriaco, etc. who you can point to that we'll be likely to avoid.

After winning a championship, there is a tendency to rest on your laurels.

[Bellhorn04]

After winning a championship, there is a tendency to rest on your laurels.

 

Yes there is. It looks like Red Sox upper management isn't doing that though, considering we're already pushing the 189 million tax threshold.

[SoxSport]

Yup. To me, this points to the Sox trading for Kemp, but only if the Dodgers agree to the Sox terms. If not, no big deal.

 

I do hope that they haven't given up on Rajai Davis, though.

 

I don't know if they have $3M to pay Raj, at this point. The kind of guy they probably want--role player. Plus does he cost a draft pick? I don't know. Doubt Kemp, unless they can unload Dempster for him. I don't know if they want to unload Peavy.

 

Interesting "expose" on the "incompetent" Mariners FO on the tweets today:

 

http://seattletimes.com/html/mariners/2022420240_mariners08xml.html

 

You have to be suspect about Wedge's motives--the fired manager. This type of thing doesn't happen in baseball very often--disagreements stay internal. You wonder if Cano's signing has anything to do with this. I guess the GM was "incompetent" enough to steal Cano from the Yankees, by using Yankee methods--outbidding them. This has been picked up on the tweets by the NY based media. Now the Mariners are incompetent for signing Cano. LOL.

[Palodios]

15 teams have called Bailey. They can have him.

[a700hitter]

Yes there is. It looks like Red Sox upper management isn't doing that though, considering we're already pushing the 189 million tax threshold.

We haven't added payroll. I wouldn't expect them to pull a Miami Marlins sell off, but they are not going to make any big acquisitions or moves. Drew will leave Ellsbury and Salty have left. We replaced Salty.

[SoxSport]

After winning a championship, there is a tendency to rest on your laurels.

 

Don't see that here. Ben has made some excellent signings so far. Mujica looks like a steal if he's healthy. He got his key guy, Napoli, signed. And that other reliever looks good, too. You hope he stays level headed. That may be his strength, and he is in a good position now.

 

In contrast, you don't see that in NY. Joel Sherman, excellent NY writer, questioned the Ellsbury signing on MLB TV, and wondered if Granderson wasn't a better fit for the Yankees. I agree there. He also felt Cano was more important to sign than Ells. Agreed again. The Yankees cut a hole in their lineup letting Cano go. Not replaceable, considering his position. They should have shown him the money. I can't say the same about Ells with the Red Sox--not with JBJ and Vic there. Ells just isn't the superstar Cano is. And Grandy is tailor made for Yankee stadium--nowhere else.

 

Yessir, Sox in a position of strength for winter meetings.

[a700hitter]

Don't see that here. Ben has made some excellent signings so far. Mujica looks like a steal if he's healthy. He got his key guy, Napoli, signed. And that other reliever looks good, too. You hope he stays level headed. That may be his strength, and he is in a good position now.

 

In contrast, you don't see that in NY. Joel Sherman, excellent NY writer, questioned the Ellsbury signing on MLB TV, and wondered if Granderson wasn't a better fit for the Yankees. I agree there. He also felt Cano was more important to sign than Ells. Agreed again. The Yankees cut a hole in their lineup letting Cano go. Not replaceable, considering his position. They should have shown him the money. I can't say the same about Ells with the Red Sox--not with JBJ and Vic there. Ells just isn't the superstar Cano is. And Grandy is tailor made for Yankee stadium--nowhere else.

 

Yessir, Sox in a position of strength for winter meetings.

We retained Napoli and we will be losing 3 of our starting players from last season. There will be no big acquisitions. Cherries pretty much came out and said that. I take him at his word. He has earned the right to rest on his laurels. That is what I expect him to do.

[a700hitter]

15 teams have called Bailey. They can have him.

The article doesn't say what they are calling him.

[SoxSport]

We retained Napoli and we will be losing 3 of our starting players from last season. There will be no big acquisitions. Cherries pretty much came out and said that. I take him at his word. He has earned the right to rest on his laurels. That is what I expect him to do.

 

I guess you mean Ells, Drew and Salty. They have JBJ, X and AJP replacing them. I almost forgot about AJP--an upgrade over Salty defensively. JBJ and X deserve their day. You know X will be an upgrade--at least offensively. They want him in the lineup for his RHd bat.

JBJ is a question. The kid deserves a solid shot, and he just might make it now. Think Cardinals. That's the Red Sox model--and vice versa.

 

Ben has signed AJP, Mujica, Nap and Bodenhop. Improved there. JBJ only question. You have to like the pitching--especially with AJP and Ross behind the plate.

[a700hitter]

I guess you mean Ells, Drew and Salty. They have JBJ, X and AJP replacing them. I almost forgot about AJP--an upgrade over Salty defensively. JBJ and X deserve their day. You know X will be an upgrade--at least offensively. They want him in the lineup for his RHd bat.

JBJ is a question. The kid deserves a solid shot, and he just might make it now. Think Cardinals. That's the Red Sox model--and vice versa.

 

Ben has signed AJP, Mujica, Nap and Bodenhop. Improved there. JBJ only question. You have to like the pitching--especially with AJP and Ross behind the plate.

Re-signing Napoli and tinkering with a bullpen is not what I would term heavy lifting. We will be rolling out the same team as last year but with a lot less speed. Last year's team won 97 games and a Championship. There is nothing wrong with that. That is a good thing. I am not criticizing him. He is not dismantling the 2013 team. He is staying the course. The whole off season was built around keeping Napoli.

[Bellhorn04]

We haven't added payroll. I wouldn't expect them to pull a Miami Marlins sell off, but they are not going to make any big acquisitions or moves. Drew will leave Ellsbury and Salty have left. We replaced Salty.

 

They haven't added much in players, but payroll costs have gone up. Peavy's full year salary is a new cost. Lester's cost is higher. Pedroia's cost is higher. Napoli's cost is higher. Pierzynski's cost is higher than Salty's was last year.

[a700hitter]

They haven't added much in players, but payroll costs have gone up. Peavy's full year salary is a new cost. Lester's cost is higher. Pedroia's cost is higher. Napoli's cost is higher. Pierzynski's cost is higher than Salty's was last year.

Napoli's cost is $3 million more. They shed $8 million with Drew and shed payroll with Ellsbury. I wouldn't be surprised if they do make a trade that it will be Peavy that gets traded,because of his cost. Do you agree that they will not be adding to payroll since they are bumping up against the cap? I am saying don't expect much. It will be the same team, minus a few pieces.

[Palodios]

Is it just me, or does a Peavy-for-Gardner trade make a whole damn lot of sense right now?

[a700hitter]

Is it just me, or does a Peavy-for-Gardner trade make a whole damn lot of sense right now?

Yes, but the yankees trading with the Red Sox? That is a major stumbling block.

[Bellhorn04]

Napoli's cost is $3 million more. They shed $8 million with Drew and shed payroll with Ellsbury. I wouldn't be surprised if they do make a trade that it will be Peavy that gets traded,because of his cost. Do you agree that they will not be adding to payroll since they are bumping up against the cap? I am saying don't expect much. It will be the same team, minus a few pieces.

 

I totally agree they're not adding much, in fact overall they're going to be subtracting some WAR. But the payroll will in fact be higher - keep in mind that the cap is increasing from 178 to 189. It just illustrates how absurdly high the cost of 'veteran talent' has become.

 

We're now at the point where a solid #5-6 hitter like Napoli signs for 16 million a year and we're applauding it.

[Palodios]

Yes, but the yankees trading with the Red Sox? That is a major stumbling block.

 

Yes, that is the obvious problem. But the Red Sox probably need a solid speed/leadoff guy who can play center and right and will serve as a stopgap for Bradley. The Yankees need one more starter, have some solid arms that will need more time in the minors, they can afford him. The Yanks don't seem to like Santana/Garza, and might not be interested in adding yet another long term contract.

[User Name]

I don't understand the desire to trade Peavy when he's a much better pitcher than Dempster. I don't understand how you can defend Dempster and turn around and lobby to trade Peavy, who's a much better pitcher. You don't weaken the pitching to add a guy who probably isn't much of an upgrade over JBJ.

[Palodios]

I don't understand the desire to trade Peavy when he's a much better pitcher than Dempster. I don't understand how you can defend Dempster and turn around and lobby to trade Peavy, who's a much better pitcher. You don't weaken the pitching to add a guy who probably isn't much of an upgrade over JBJ.

 

Adding two solid RHP arms in Mujica and Badenhop free Workman for a long reliever, 6th starter role. With the number of talented young arms in the organization as the #7/8 starter roles, I am open to moving either Dempster or Peavy. You mentioned in another thread that Peavy is the #3 starter "all things considered", but he is just as big an injury risk as Buchholz at this point.

[SoxFanForsyth]

We retained Napoli and we will be losing 3 of our starting players from last season. There will be no big acquisitions. Cherries pretty much came out and said that. I take him at his word. He has earned the right to rest on his laurels. That is what I expect him to do.

 

True we lost 3 starters, but I don't expect any drop off at SS, minimal dropoff at C (I hate the guy but at least he makes contact). Certainly we will see a drop in CF, but I think that's the only big drop we will see. As of today I still see this is a 94-96 win team.

 

Bogaerts and Middlebrooks are the wild cards. If Middlebrooks can hit .265/.310/.470 with 25 HR, that's a huge improvement over last year. And Bill James system projects Bogaerts with a .357 OBP and a .450 SLG, with 19 HR. So the loss from Ells could be made up somewhat with those numbers, along with Peavy rather than Dempster in the rotation.

[User Name]

Adding two solid RHP arms in Mujica and Badenhop free Workman for a long reliever, 6th starter role. With the number of talented young arms in the organization as the #7/8 starter roles, I am open to moving either Dempster or Peavy. You mentioned in another thread that Peavy is the #3 starter "all things considered", but he is just as big an injury risk as Buchholz at this point.

 

Yeah, but unlike Dempster, he can actually get people out consistently. Let's introduce the talented young arms slowly while keeping the guys who can help us get to the playoffs in the rotation.

[Palodios]

Yeah, but unlike Dempster, he can actually get people out consistently. Let's introduce the talented young arms slowly while keeping the guys who can help us get to the playoffs in the rotation.

 

There needs to be a balance between introducing young arms slowly and young bats slowly. Why give THREE unproven young players a guaranteed spot in the lineup, and then make your young pitchers the team's 7th option for the rotation?

[Bellhorn04]

There needs to be a balance between introducing young arms slowly and young bats slowly. Why give THREE unproven young players a guaranteed spot in the lineup, and then make your young pitchers the team's 7th option for the rotation?

 

I'll offer one answer to this. Unproven young bats who are struggling generally can't hurt you as quickly or as drastically as unproven young pitchers can. If a guy like Webster gets lit up 3 games in a row you're usually looking at 3 losses and him not getting another major league start for a long stretch.

[Palodios]

I'll offer one answer to this. Unproven young bats who are struggling generally can't hurt you as quickly or as drastically as unproven young pitchers can. If a guy like Webster gets lit up 3 games in a row you're usually looking at 3 losses and him not getting another major league start for a long stretch.

 

I understand this. However, the Red Sox are looking at 4-5 guys trying to get that one spot. If you don't have confidence that one of those guys are going to be able to win games, why not gut the team and call it a year? These are guys that Baseball America and other scouts are very high on to make an impact in the major leagues.

[Bellhorn04]

I understand this. However, the Red Sox are looking at 4-5 guys trying to get that one spot. If you don't have confidence that one of those guys are going to be able to win games, why not gut the team and call it a year? These are guys that Baseball America and other scouts are very high on to make an impact in the major leagues.

 

As the year goes on our pitching prospects will get their chances. They always do.

[Dojji]

I don't understand the desire to trade Peavy when he's a much better pitcher than Dempster. I don't understand how you can defend Dempster and turn around and lobby to trade Peavy, who's a much better pitcher. You don't weaken the pitching to add a guy who probably isn't much of an upgrade over JBJ.

 

Easy. You trade Peavy because he has enough value to fetch a return: Dempster may or may not.

[Bellhorn04]

Easy. You trade Peavy because he has enough value to fetch a return: Dempster may or may not.

 

I agree with UN. I think it makes more sense to trade Dempster if we only have to eat 3-5 million. He is much more expendable. Getting a big return is not really the issue. The issue is clearing some payroll room without hurting the team very much.

[marklmw]

There needs to be a balance between introducing young arms slowly and young bats slowly. Why give THREE unproven young players a guaranteed spot in the lineup, and then make your young pitchers the team's 7th option for the rotation?

 

What hasn't Brogaerts proven to you? I saw a talented young ballplayer excite and excel on the biggest stage against the best pitching. WMB ... is perhaps the best pure athlete in the organization. Once he figures out how to work major league pitching he will a very a productive hitter. He is already a versatile fielder. JBJ will be the big surprise next year .... 15HR's, .360 OBP and very solid defense. If we can acquire Kemp however for a reasonable cost I say go for it ... nothing wrong with adding a player with proven 30+ HR power along with a good OBP. In fact this would give us 4 players with such power in 2014 along with 2 players with 20 HR potential we will have a very potent offense.