Marahiro Tanaka And Sox Starting Rotation.

[marklmw]

Most of the talk about what to do or not do this off season centers around Napoli, Abreu, Ellsbury, Drew, Stanton, and Salty. I believe that at the end of the day most of the players from this years team will want to return as they seem to like playing together in Boston which is a nice position for management to work from. If the Sox cannot work out something reasonable for Ellsbury they will pick up a draft pick and JBJ will be given the opportunity.

I would like to talk about the starting rotation and one way that Boston can improve it. An international player that Boston is scouting is Marahiro Tanaka and signing him can really help the Sox for the next 5 or 6 years.

 

http://nesn.com/2013/09/report-red-sox-yankees-among-teams-to-scout-japanese-pitcher-masahiro-tanaka/

 

Of course I still like Abreu because of his ceiling and that he makes our club younger and the same can be said of Tanaka. It is my feeling that signing Tanaka is far more important than trading for Stanton, or signing Abreu. By signing Tanaka we have insurance and can then turn around and deal Dempster. Buch, Tanaka, Lester ... would be any awesome post season rotation would it not?

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Sox already have 6 starters as is, with a ton of talent waiting in the minors (Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, Ball, Webster, Workman).

 

I just don't think it would be smart to invest in this guy, he doesn't fill a need.

[mvp 78]

It's smart if you think his ceiling is a #1. If he's just a middle of the rotation guy, look elsewhere. There's no harm in doing due diligence.

[marklmw]

The Sox already have 6 starters as is, with a ton of talent waiting in the minors (Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, Ball, Webster, Workman).

 

I just don't think it would be smart to invest in this guy, he doesn't fill a need.

 

Not one of the players you mention are legit number 2's at this time. They think Ranaudo might be best suited as a late inning setup man. Owens shows the most promise but he is 2 years away. Buch is fragile, Dempster sucks ... are you kidding me .... not a need.

[Dojji]

Never turn up your nose at a chance to add pitching depth. If you think Tanaka can translate his skillset to the big leagues, sign him. If you have 6 or 7 big league starters ready to do and you still think Tanaka can translate his skillset to the big leagues, sign him anyway.

[jacksonianmarch]

I highly, highly, highly doubt any team other than the Yankees or the Dodgers have this kid come 2014. The Yankees have the need and can write off the posting fee without having to pay tax on it. The sox don't need this kid and he will likely cost them about $75-$100 mil when all is said and done

[SoxFanForsyth]

Not one of the players you mention are legit number 2's at this time. They think Ranaudo might be best suited as a late inning setup man. Owens shows the most promise but he is 2 years away. Buch is fragile, Dempster sucks ... are you kidding me .... not a need.

 

It's 100% not a need at the price that it will take to get him. No way.

 

You don't pay that much money for SP depth. The Sox, with Lester Buchholz Peavy Lackey Doubront Dempster Workman Ranaudo Barnes Owens. I mean. You're going to go spend more money on this??

 

Two things. Where the hell do you see people saying Ranaudo is a "late inning reliever"?!? That may be his floor. This is a ridiculous, ridiculous statement with zero backing.

 

Here is a quote from a scout from mid-season:

“When I saw him this spring, he looked great in the spring — up to 95, great downhill plane, very good curveball and an improving changeup with a little bit of sink. He’s going to have to maintain his delivery and that changeup still needs a little bit of work, but if he can stay healthy, I think he has the profile of definitely being a No. 3 guy, maybe a No. 2 if everything goes right. With the way he’s throwing now, the angle is huge. The breaking ball is swing and miss. I was a little surprised how tight his spin was. It really has progressed since when I had seen him in high school. Some guys don’t make that progression. It was exciting to see. As long as he stays healthy, he should definitely be a main guy in Boston’s rotation at some point.”

 

Second. You say Owens is 2 years away? Really? Because where was Brandon Workman this time last year? Oh, just completing his 5th start in Portland? Where is Owens right now? Oh, just completing his 6th start in Portland? And where did Workman end up? Ah, yes, starting for the Red Sox for a few games.

 

You're just spewing BS because I didn't agree with signing this guy.

 

The Red Sox have the 2nd best SP rotation in the American League with tons of talent coming up. Barnes had a very solid year (3.41 FIP in AA, 1.70 FIP in AAA). He will be ready next year along with Ranaudo.

 

Spending a ton of money on this guy makes zero sense.

[Dojji]

Keep overrating those prospects, SFF. At least you're consistent.

 

A prospect isn't a productive regular until the moment he is. Projections are all fun and nice and optimistic and crap, but that's the reality of the prospect game. I used to be as head in the clouds as you, then Lars Anderson happened. I wait for evidence now.

 

With pitching in particular, you can literally never have enough redundancy. If you can expand your practical depth in the starting rotation you always do it because entropy will always find a way to screw you over if you don't. We've seen it happen too many times for me to let you get away with ignoring the lessons of history now.

[mvp 78]

Keep overrating those prospects, SFF. At least you're consistent.

 

C'mon now... Kason Gabbard.

[Dojji]

Gabbard turned out nicely for us in the limited chances he got to really put himself on display in the majors. he definitely showed that he had the talent to be productive before the trade and the injury. After the injury his command was shot to hell, which is a real pity.

 

He didn't go on to have an ace type career, but he came up to help us bigtime at a time which (due to Schill's injury and Lester's cancer rehab) we really needed him, so if you'll forgive me, or even if you won't, I'm going to call my pick of Gabbard a solid base hit.

 

And mind, I only started pulling for Gabbard after his big league debut when I thought he showed some mental toughness and some good stuff with that changeup of his.

Edited September 26, 2013 by Dojji

[sk7326]

Keep overrating those prospects, SFF. At least you're consistent.

 

A prospect isn't a productive regular until the moment he is. Projections are all fun and nice and optimistic and crap, but that's the reality of the prospect game. I used to be as head in the clouds as you, then Lars Anderson happened. I wait for evidence now.

 

With pitching in particular, you can literally never have enough redundancy. If you can expand your practical depth in the starting rotation you always do it because entropy will always find a way to screw you over if you don't. We've seen it happen too many times for me to let you get away with ignoring the lessons of history now.

 

Evidence is a shaky thing on prospects. Lars Anderson's case is very much an exception - one of the weirdest of them all, usually guys who are performing at levels they are young for are very high probability guys. In the long run, betting on guys like that works. (just like, as Tampa would attest, despite the volatility of prospects, drafting very high still works quite well)

 

The Japanese guy is worth signing if he is better than your alternatives in a meaningful way. The history if Nippon league starters would lead you to believe that this is in fact not true - Darvish's style is much more "American" than the guys they have generally produced. The more typical examples have been the Nomos or Matsuzakas, not pitching to contact, wasting a lot of time etc.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Keep overrating those prospects, SFF. At least you're consistent.

 

A prospect isn't a productive regular until the moment he is. Projections are all fun and nice and optimistic and crap, but that's the reality of the prospect game. I used to be as head in the clouds as you, then Lars Anderson happened. I wait for evidence now.

 

With pitching in particular, you can literally never have enough redundancy. If you can expand your practical depth in the starting rotation you always do it because entropy will always find a way to screw you over if you don't. We've seen it happen too many times for me to let you get away with ignoring the lessons of history now.

 

I'm sure as hell glad that you're not the GM because no prospect would ever make it to the MLB if you were.

 

Every prospect has to swallow lumps and adjust to the league, and they all struggle.

 

Mike Trout hit .220/.281/.390 in 2011.

ARod hit .224/.257/.352 in 94/95, his first two years getting called up.

Felix Hernandez had a 4.52 ERA in his first full season in the majors.

 

Point is, almost every prospect has growing pains. You just have to put up with them. No matter how long they stay in AAA, they're going to face growing pains when they face the elite level of pitching/hitting in the MLB.

 

You're up there with a700 on the extremity of putting zero reliance on prospects.

 

The best way to build sustained success is to generate talent internally, and pay for compliments via free agency.

[Dojji]

I'm sure as hell glad that you're not the GM because no prospect would ever make it to the MLB if you were.

 

Sure they would, they'd just have to make the most of the chances they got when they got them, rather than be handed everything on a silver platter like we're some kind of small market team.

 

if these prospects are really as good as you want to say they are they will find a way to rise to the top against professional level competition.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Sure they would, they'd just have to make the most of the chances they got when they got them, rather than be handed everything on a silver platter like we're some kind of small market team.

 

if these prospects are really as good as you want to say they are they will find a way to rise to the top against professional level competition.

 

Great.

 

Pedroia would still be in AAA. Nava would have never made it to the show. Buchholz would still be in AAA. Mike Trout would probably be in AA.

 

Luckily Middlebrooks got a knock in his SSS "tryout" or else he wouldn't be anywhere near this roster.

 

You have to give players enough of a sample of consistent playing time before you can make a judgement. That's why it's more than just numbers, it's approach, plate discipline, bat speed, etc. That's why you have scouts, not just computers looking at their numbers and making your decisions based on that.

[sk7326]

Sure they would, they'd just have to make the most of the chances they got when they got them, rather than be handed everything on a silver platter like we're some kind of small market team.

 

if these prospects are really as good as you want to say they are they will find a way to rise to the top against professional level competition.

 

I don't think anyone disagrees with this, but "scouting the stat line" is generally a bad way to operate.

[Dojji]

I don't think anyone disagrees with this, but "scouting the stat line" is generally a bad way to operate.

 

It's the best way for a fan to operate.

 

I expect the franchise to know when to push the gas pedal more than I do when it comes to prospects, but this franchise is going to stack depth around their prospects as they work them in, it's their standard MO even when it occasionally bites them a bit. The good prospects find a way to beat out their competition and the others don't matter.

[SoxSport]

I think what they do for next year will be determined by how effective they are in the playoffs. If they win it all, I wouldn't expect any big changes. They are smart if they keep the chemistry that clicked this year. One mistake GMs often make in all sports is to upset the winning chemistry the next year. Ainge of the Celtics did that not re-signing Posey after winning in '07. The guy was a critical 6th man off the bench who wasn't replaced. You have to look at look at your players, decide who is playing an important role, and keep them to retain your chemistry.

 

I think there will be changes in the rotation next year. Dempster will be replaced, maybe Doubront with a prospect or two waiting in the wings. Plus they have to decide on Bogaerts vs Drew, Bradley and retaining Salty for his hitting and determination.

[sk7326]

It's the best way for a fan to operate.

 

I expect the franchise to know when to push the gas pedal more than I do when it comes to prospects, but this franchise is going to stack depth around their prospects as they work them in, it's their standard MO even when it occasionally bites them a bit. The good prospects find a way to beat out their competition and the others don't matter.

 

But what does beating them out mean. It does not reflect in the stats necessarily - it could just be coaching and scouting outcomes. Bradley clearly has shown he can handle CF defensively and at the plate he knows what he is doing, though it has not translated into results fully. Any promotion (like a signing) is a bet - but a bet on a kid with a lot of natural growth remaining. The Lars Anderson sort of regression as a 23 year old is very rare.

[Dojji]

When I say beating, I mean beating. A manager is going to give every player on his roster time to play. If the rookie is showing he helps the team win more than the veteran, then the rookie will play. If the manager or GM is convinced that with proper time, the rookie will easily help the team win more than the veteran, the rookie will be worked in around the veteran and get chances to learn and improve until he proves he's ready to go. it's part of the organic learning and succession process that is a part of baseball for as long as there's been baseball.

 

In no way should a rookie ever be simply handed playing time with no competition unless you're 200% sure he's ready to go right now. All of our best players have had to earn their time the hard way -- through competition against other decent players. We've always had the redundancy to do something in the event of a meltdown. No one is just handed a job here.

 

Imagine if, back when we were still in love with Wily Mo Pena in the 06-07 offeseason, we'd just handed him right field and told him to go gettum. That would have exploded in our face rather spectacularly, would it not? This despite the fact that he'd been highly effective for us in 06, even filling in nicely starting regularly down the stretch as things fell apart and people got hurt.

 

My point is the same as it ever is here: Whether you love a prospect or you hate them you always have to be openminded enough that you give them a chance to prove you wrong, and always have a plan in mind for what to do if they manage it.

Edited September 26, 2013 by Dojji

[SoxFanForsyth]

When I say beating, I mean beating. A manager is going to give every player on his roster time to play. If the rookie is showing he helps the team win more than the veteran, then the rookie will play. If the manager or GM is convinced that with proper time, the rookie will easily help the team win more than the veteran, the rookie will be worked in around the veteran and get chances to learn and improve until he proves he's ready to go. it's part of the organic learning and succession process that is a part of baseball for as long as there's been baseball.

 

In no way should a rookie ever be simply handed playing time with no competition unless you're 200% sure he's ready to go right now. All of our best players have had to earn their time the hard way -- through competition against other decent players. We've always had the redundancy to do something in the event of a meltdown. No one is just handed a job here.

 

Imagine if, back when we were still in love with Wily Mo Pena in the 06-07 offeseason, we'd just handed him right field and told him to go gettum. That would have exploded in our face rather spectacularly, would it not? This despite the fact that he'd been highly effective for us in 06, even filling in nicely starting regularly down the stretch as things fell apart and people got hurt.

 

My point is the same as it ever is here: Whether you love a prospect or you hate them you always have to be openminded enough that you give them a chance to prove you wrong, and always have a plan in mind for what to do if they manage it.

 

This is exactly my point. You go with Bradley in CF, give him 2 months playing every single day to see how he adjusts, and then make your assessment. If he doesn't work out right now, you send him back to AAA and you have Carp/Gomes - Victorino - Nava until he does.

[User Name]

Dojji is terribly inconsistent. He's all about pushing the envelope with some of the no-name prospects he likes, but when a real one like JBJ comes along he's all about "not overrating prospects" and "not rushing them" or some other form of nonsense. Terrible.

[User Name]

Evidence is a shaky thing on prospects. Lars Anderson's case is very much an exception - one of the weirdest of them all, usually guys who are performing at levels they are young for are very high probability guys. In the long run, betting on guys like that works. (just like, as Tampa would attest, despite the volatility of prospects, drafting very high still works quite well)

 

The Japanese guy is worth signing if he is better than your alternatives in a meaningful way. The history if Nippon league starters would lead you to believe that this is in fact not true - Darvish's style is much more "American" than the guys they have generally produced. The more typical examples have been the Nomos or Matsuzakas, not pitching to contact, wasting a lot of time etc.

 

Funny you mention Lars Anderson's case, since Dojji was on record on this site as being against the Sox making a run for Teixeira given his presence. He's terribly inconsistent on his evaluation on prospects depending on how much he likes/dislikes them regardless of ceiling or talent.

[sk7326]

Funny you mention Lars Anderson's case, since Dojji was on record on this site as being against the Sox making a run for Teixeira given his presence. He's terribly inconsistent on his evaluation on prospects depending on how much he likes/dislikes them regardless of ceiling or talent.

 

The thing to me with prospects is - age + level to me is the simplest way to evaluate them. It's just the principle that anybody who has played sports knows. The kid conquering JV means nothing to me - but the freshman who can get reps, even as a substitute, with the varsity ... THAT is who you bet on.

[mvp 78]

Funny you mention Lars Anderson's case, since Dojji was on record on this site as being against the Sox making a run for Teixeira given his presence. He's terribly inconsistent on his evaluation on prospects depending on how much he likes/dislikes them regardless of ceiling or talent.

 

But he was right because 23 year olds never regress like that and Kason Gabbard would have been a top of the rotation guy if he didn't get injured or something.

 

Bring back David Pauley!

[SoxFanForsyth]

Dojji is terribly inconsistent. He's all about pushing the envelope with some of the no-name prospects he likes, but when a real one like JBJ comes along he's all about "not overrating prospects" and "not rushing them" or some other form of nonsense. Terrible.

 

Despite our differences regarding Giancarlo Stanton, I give you a +1 on this post, good sir.

[marklmw]

I highly, highly, highly doubt any team other than the Yankees or the Dodgers have this kid come 2014. The Yankees have the need and can write off the posting fee without having to pay tax on it. The sox don't need this kid and he will likely cost them about $75-$100 mil when all is said and done

 

The Giants, Angels, Diamondbacks, and probably another 10 teams are looking at Tanaka. Dodgers have a 2013 payroll of 220M, Yankees 203M while the Red Sox are at 141M. Depending on ARoids suspension hearing the Yankees will save more than 154K per game. The Yankees have always controlled MLB and they want ARODS suspension to hold at 211 games but MLB most often compromises on appeal. I do not think AROD had been caught using before so MLB will have an uphill fight to keep him at 211 games. Cano is due for a 10M raise from 15m to 25m. The Yankees are working to stay beneath the salary cap so I think Boston has a better chance than either the Dodgers or Yankees. The posting fee will be around 50-60m but that does not count towards the cap. He will probably be signed at 12m per over 5 - 60M. Sox can unload Dempster to an NL and pick up part of his salary.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Giants, Angels, Diamondbacks, and probably another 10 teams are looking at Tanaka. Dodgers have a 2013 payroll of 220M, Yankees 203M while the Red Sox are at 141M. Depending on ARoids suspension hearing the Yankees will save more than 154K per game. The Yankees have always controlled MLB and they want ARODS suspension to hold at 211 games but MLB most often compromises on appeal. I do not think AROD had been caught using before so MLB will have an uphill fight to keep him at 211 games. Cano is due for a 10M raise from 15m to 25m. The Yankees are working to stay beneath the salary cap so I think Boston has a better chance than either the Dodgers or Yankees. The posting fee will be around 50-60m but that does not count towards the cap. He will probably be signed at 12m per over 5 - 60M. Sox can unload Dempster to an NL and pick up part of his salary.

 

Mark, you have to understand, Jackso wants this guy so bad he's trying to convince himself there won't be a bidding war. It helps him sleep at night.

 

In the end, this guy will be going to the Rangers.

[marklmw]

It's 100% not a need at the price that it will take to get him. No way.

 

You don't pay that much money for SP depth. The Sox, with Lester Buchholz Peavy Lackey Doubront Dempster Workman Ranaudo Barnes Owens. I mean. You're going to go spend more money on this??

 

Two things. Where the hell do you see people saying Ranaudo is a "late inning reliever"?!? That may be his floor. This is a ridiculous, ridiculous statement with zero backing.

 

Here is a quote from a scout from mid-season:

 

Second. You say Owens is 2 years away? Really? Because where was Brandon Workman this time last year? Oh, just completing his 5th start in Portland? Where is Owens right now? Oh, just completing his 6th start in Portland? And where did Workman end up? Ah, yes, starting for the Red Sox for a few games.

 

You're just spewing BS because I didn't agree with signing this guy.

 

The Red Sox have the 2nd best SP rotation in the American League with tons of talent coming up. Barnes had a very solid year (3.41 FIP in AA, 1.70 FIP in AAA). He will be ready next year along with Ranaudo.

 

Spending a ton of money on this guy makes zero sense.

 

SSF ... Your arguments are terrible. The Sox have and continue to scout Tanaka. Are you saying that the organization does not know what they are doing?

Give me a break. Your answer to me is Workman ... with a whip of 1.44 and an era of 5.05 ... really. Of course the Sox can use help at the front end of their rotation.

Buchholz with 101 IP. And we are only talking about the season. Come the playoffs you need a minimum of 2 aces ... if Buchholz did not come back in time for the playoffs the Sox would be entering post season with 2- 1/2 Ace's in Lester and Lackey. Playoffs are all about pitching. The Dodgers would be my favorites to win it all this year if I were not a Sox fanatic. They have arguably the number 1 pitcher in the game in Kershaw and another top 8 in Greinkee. Detroit has a top 5 in Anibal Sanchez and a top 10 in Max Scherzer and for good measure they have former Cy Young pitcher in Verlander who in an off year posted an era of 3.56. Yes he would be the Ace of the Sox. If you do not think adding Tanaka to Lester and Buchholz would be a good baseball decision well ... there is nothing more I can say.

[marklmw]

Mark, you have to understand, Jackso wants this guy so bad he's trying to convince himself there won't be a bidding war. It helps him sleep at night.

 

In the end, this guy will be going to the Rangers.

 

Maybe ... maybe ... but the Sox owners have money and they like to win. Do not count the Sox out. After the posting fee is paid the actual contract should be very reasonable. There was a 50m fee for Dice K and another 50M 5 year contract or was it 6 years.

[SoxFanForsyth]

SSF ... Your arguments are terrible. The Sox have and continue to scout Tanaka. Are you saying that the organization does not know what they are doing?

Give me a break. Your answer to me is Workman ... with a whip of 1.44 and an era of 5.05 ... really. Of course the Sox can use help at the front end of their rotation.

Buchholz with 101 IP. And we are only talking about the season. Come the playoffs you need a minimum of 2 aces ... if Buchholz did not come back in time for the playoffs the Sox would be entering post season with 2- 1/2 Ace's in Lester and Lackey. Playoffs are all about pitching. The Dodgers would be my favorites to win it all this year if I were not a Sox fanatic. They have arguably the number 1 pitcher in the game in Kershaw and another top 8 in Greinkee. Detroit has a top 5 in Anibal Sanchez and a top 10 in Max Scherzer and for good measure they have former Cy Young pitcher in Verlander who in an off year posted an era of 3.56. Yes he would be the Ace of the Sox. If you do not think adding Tanaka to Lester and Buchholz would be a good baseball decision well ... there is nothing more I can say.

 

They're going to do their due diligence. They're not going to sign him. Because they don't need him.

 

They've got entirely too much talent between their starting 5, Dempster, plus 4 guys in Pawtucket (Barnes, Ranaudo, Webster, Workman), and a guy in Portland who could very well be up by midseason 2015, a la Workman, in Owens.

 

I'm sorry that this hurts your feelings, but you're wrong. If they're going to spend 100mm+ on a player, why would they spend it on an area of strength??

 

It makes no sense. They don't need him. At all.