Has the "real" Jon Lester returned?

[Orange Juiced]

After last night's gem, here are his last six starts:

 

6.1 ip, 7 h, 2 r, 2 er, 0 bb, 8 k

7.0 ip, 4 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 8 k

4.1 ip, 11 h, 6 r, 6 er, 0 bb, 6 k

7.0 ip, 5 h, 3 r, 1 er, 2 bb, 4 k

6.1 ip, 6 h, 3 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 3 k

8.1 ip, 6 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 3 k

 

TOT: 39.1 ip, 37 h, 14 r, 11 er, 8 bb, 32 k, 2.52 era, 1.14 whip, 7.3 k/9

 

Of the six games, one was horrid, two were absolutely stellar, and three were very solid. I'd happily take this Jon Lester the rest of the way. What is your sense, talksox? Is this what we're getting for the remainder of 2013? Is the "real" Jon Lester back?

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know, but he looked great. Not just the pitching, but he also looks great physically...damn, he actually looked like a happy guy in the dugout.

[mvp 78]

Who knows? It would be nice if he kept this up, but he's just as likely to revert to bad Lester.

[Thunder]

He had struggled recently until last night, so I don't know. One good start is hard to tell. Keep in mind that this team is in last.

[sk7326]

He has been ok. Strikeout rate still not "old Lester" - Giants helped a lot yesterday. But he has been solid.

[SoxSport]

Lester is fine. One bad start showing there. Every pitcher has a stinker every 4 or 5 starts. I doubt he's the same pitcher of a few years back, but he's good enough. Being LHd helps.

[Station 13]

The "real" 2008-2010 Lester is long gone. As long as he performs as a middle rotation starter I'm fine with it. But the Sox still got a lot work to do upgrading the rotation.

[SCM33]

He has been the real Lester all year.

 

Really good and really bad. He will finish the year 13 or 14 wins and a 3.80-4.00 ERA, same as always.

 

The only thing consistent about Jon Lester, is that be will be inconsistent.

[RedSoxNC84]

I think Lester can stay pretty solid. He's gonna have some bad games, but at least he'll stick around as something like a #3 starter more than likely.

[BornToRun]

Isn't May the only month where had an ERA over 4?

[Station 13]

Isn't May the only month where had an ERA over 4?

 

7.62 in June.

[BornToRun]

7.62 in June.

I see. Thanks for that.

[sk7326]

Lester is what he is - a super valuable guy to have over the course of a long season - the ability to crank out 200+ average-above average innings while never getting hurt is an extremely underrated quality. But he is probably not going to be a #1/#2 sort of guy ever again (not with the declining strikeout and the inability to feel his cutter).

[jung]

I think you are right sk. It does appear that Lester is on the back nine. I think his best shot at staving off a deeper decline than he should suffer would be to pitch like he did in SF because it at least gives him a chance to win. If he finally gets that, he will be in much better shape even with the decline in the quality of his pitches. He has got to go out there and attack hitters. There is no other way for him to pitch and I think he has enough left to do that. He is frustrating when it appears that he does not think he has enough left to do that.

[Orange Juiced]

I think you are right sk. It does appear that Lester is on the back nine. I think his best shot at staving off a deeper decline than he should suffer would be to pitch like he did in SF because it at least gives him a chance to win. If he finally gets that, he will be in much better shape even with the decline in the quality of his pitches. He has got to go out there and attack hitters. There is no other way for him to pitch and I think he has enough left to do that. He is frustrating when it appears that he does not think he has enough left to do that.

 

Lester still has plenty of good stuff left to be a very good pitcher. Good (not great) fastball (92-94), good curve, decent cutter, decent change. If he can just locate and challenge hitters and trust his stuff, he should be fine. It's when he nibbles that drives me crazy and gets him in trouble.

[sk7326]

I think you are right sk. It does appear that Lester is on the back nine. I think his best shot at staving off a deeper decline than he should suffer would be to pitch like he did in SF because it at least gives him a chance to win. If he finally gets that, he will be in much better shape even with the decline in the quality of his pitches. He has got to go out there and attack hitters. There is no other way for him to pitch and I think he has enough left to do that. He is frustrating when it appears that he does not think he has enough left to do that.

 

I am not sure Back 9 is entirely fair ... I just meant the days when we could sit here and compare him to Verlanders or Felix Hernandez' of the world are probably over. But that doesn't mean he can't still be an excellent #3, adequate #2. His xFIP numbers have not wobbled that much, and his stuff is still good enough to pitch to contact. I mean if I were in Boston's shoes, I'd offer Lester a 5/75 extension and feel zero guilt - his durability alone makes that a completely fair deal.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Isn't May the only month where had an ERA over 4?

 

Ay you S.O.B, you're next in line for the game thread. It's been too long.

[Thunder]

Ay you S.O.B, you're next in line for the game thread. It's been too long.

 

As the president of his fan club, I suggest that Friday's GT be titled: 8/23 @ the Los Angeles Puigs, Saturday's be titled 8/24 @ Vin Scully's mansion and Sunday's be titled 8/25 @ the 42-8 club.

[jung]

I am not sure Back 9 is entirely fair

 

Remember, the 10th hole is on the back nine. I think he is past the half way mark if only slightly.

[Jasonbay44]

As the president of his fan club, I suggest that Friday's GT be titled: 8/23 @ the Los Angeles Puigs, Saturday's be titled 8/24 @ Vin Scully's mansion and Sunday's be titled 8/25 @ the 42-8 club.

 

Implying a loss against the Giants?

[Behindenemylines]

I'll trust that Lester is back when he does what he did to the offensive challenged Giants to the $pankees, O's and Rays. He looked good Monday in a game the Sox needed the starter to go deep. He has the Dodgers this weekend lets see how he does.

[Orange Juiced]

Well, Lester was terrific again today. Add this latest to his nice string of performances:

 

6.1 ip, 7 h, 2 r, 2 er, 0 bb, 8 k

7.0 ip, 4 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 8 k

4.1 ip, 11 h, 6 r, 6 er, 0 bb, 6 k

7.0 ip, 5 h, 3 r, 1 er, 2 bb, 4 k

6.1 ip, 6 h, 3 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 3 k

8.1 ip, 6 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 3 k

7.1 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 1 er, 4 bb, 6 k

 

TOT: 46.2 ip, 42 h, 15 r, 12 er, 12 bb, 38 k, 2.31 era, 1.16 whip, 7.3 k/9

 

And of his last 7 starts, 6 have been quality starts. He's averaged 6.2 ip per start, which is also pretty solid.

 

Last 4 games: 29.0 ip, 19 h, 7 r, 4 er, 10 bb, 16 k, 1.24 era, 1.00 whip, 5.0 k/9

 

If he keeps pitching like this, we have our "ace" back.

[mvp 78]

Lester is at best a #2. He's streaky for sure, but the long bad streaks keep him out of any ace discussion.

[Bellhorn04]

According to Gameday, Lester's fastball was hitting 95 yesterday. Is it possible his fastball has returned to where it was? Edited August 25, 2013 by Bellhorn04

[Thunder]

His last two starts has led me to believe that he's back to the point he was at in April and May. He'll be a solid #2 when Clay comes back.

[SoxSport]

I think Lester benefits from a good defensive catcher like Ross, who frames pitches much better than Salty--who keeps his glove in the middle of the plate. Doubront's last start, I watched Salty frame a pitch right down the middle. Doubront threw it right into his glove--and the batter hit it for a HR. In a word, that's Salty's problem, aside from being very slow behind the plate due to his size. It's a shame-- he's an above average hitter for a catcher.

[Bellhorn04]

I think Lester benefits from a good defensive catcher like Ross, who frames pitches much better than Salty--who keeps his glove in the middle of the plate. Doubront's last start, I watched Salty frame a pitch right down the middle. Doubront threw it right into his glove--and the batter hit it for a HR. In a word, that's Salty's problem, aside from being very slow behind the plate due to his size. It's a shame-- he's an above average hitter for a catcher.

 

Then these numbers may surprise you:

 

Lester with Salty (19 starts)

ERA 3.68

OPS .679

K/BB 3.5

 

Lester with Ross (8 starts)

ERA 4.68

OPS .815

K/BB 1.48

 

Salty will never be the greatest defensive catcher but I think he has improved to the point where he's at least average. He has to be given some of the credit for the starting rotation's major improvement this year.

[SCM33]

Then these numbers may surprise you:

 

Lester with Salty (19 starts)

ERA 3.68

OPS .679

K/BB 3.5

 

Lester with Ross (8 starts)

ERA 4.68

OPS .815

K/BB 1.48

 

Salty will never be the greatest defensive catcher but I think he has improved to the point where he's at least average. He has to be given some of the credit for the starting rotation's major improvement this year.

 

If he deserves credit for this year, then he deserves criticism for the last 2 years. The reason they are pitching well, is because of the hard work of Juan Nieves and John Farrell.

[Bellhorn04]

If he deserves credit for this year, then he deserves criticism for the last 2 years. The reason they are pitching well, is because of the hard work of Juan Nieves and John Farrell.

 

a) Agree 100% with the first statement.

If Salty has improved and is working hard with the pitchers on their game plans etc., I have no idea why he couldn't be part of the pitching improvement too.

 

Intangibles are intangibles. The only thing we know is the numbers. The rest is speculation.

[sk7326]

The coaching staff has done well - just by not being run by insane people.

 

Lester has receded into what he is - just a solid, durable guy. Last couple of starts mojo has been better, although I'd be more bullish on the LA start than the SF one (3 strikeouts against a poor offense). Also remember, two good starts in two good pitchers parks.

 

Lester's not the team's best starter - but he is the most reliable.