Should we resign Jacoby Ellsbury?

[sk7326]

We discussed the dominoes falling ealier ... when Mark was asking when do you think the free agent frenzy will start in earnest.

 

I think basically the market is waiting for 2 things ... 1) Cano as mentioned above and ... 2) The David Price sweepstakes

 

The latter will help iron out the pitching market a lot. Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez are the best pure FA starters out there. But you can't justify either of them making Greinke money, though the market scarcity allows them to dream. But where Price goes can shift this a lot. To that end ...

 

The Fielder trade gives both Detroit and Texas a lot of options. It definitely allows Texas to possibly put Profar in the center of a deal for Price AND make a real run at Cano. Detroit, if they wanted, could probably shuffle deck chairs too, move Kinsler to 3B., Miggy to 1B and possibly do something on the Cano front too, though I think they'd be less inclined.

[marklmw]

We discussed the dominoes falling ealier ... when Mark was asking when do you think the free agent frenzy will start in earnest.

 

I think basically the market is waiting for 2 things ... 1) Cano as mentioned above and ... 2) The David Price sweepstakes

 

The latter will help iron out the pitching market a lot. Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez are the best pure FA starters out there. But you can't justify either of them making Greinke money, though the market scarcity allows them to dream. But where Price goes can shift this a lot. To that end ...

 

The Fielder trade gives both Detroit and Texas a lot of options. It definitely allows Texas to possibly put Profar in the center of a deal for Price AND make a real run at Cano. Detroit, if they wanted, could probably shuffle deck chairs too, move Kinsler to 3B., Miggy to 1B and possibly do something on the Cano front too, though I think they'd be less inclined.

Detroit was having some money issues and unloading the HUGE contract of Fielder helps them with a possible contract extension of Max Scherzer. They essential took $76M of liabilities off the books. They also have a stud prospect in Castellanos that they would put at 3B should Cabrera be moved to 1B. I hardly think that they will put out the money for Cano as he really is not a need. Cano makes every MLB team better (with the exception of Boston) but at what price.

[sk7326]

Detroit was having some money issues and unloading the HUGE contract of Fielder helps them with a possible contract extension of Max Scherzer. They essential took $76M of liabilities off the books. They also have a stud prospect in Castellanos that they would put at 3B should Cabrera be moved to 1B. I hardly think that they will put out the money for Cano as he really is not a need. Cano makes every MLB team better (with the exception of Boston) but at what price.

 

Cano I think is more of an idea for Texas, though if they just put Profar in at 2B, you could hardly blame them.

[marklmw]

Cano I think is more of an idea for Texas, though if they just put Profar in at 2B, you could hardly blame them.

 

They are very high on Profar ... that is why this deal was made to begin with.

[sk7326]

They are very high on Profar ... that is why this deal was made to begin with.

 

Perhaps - although with a new CEO, using Profar to land David Price then signing Cano is on the table too - riskier, more expensive, but also the best available guys at 2 spots.

[marklmw]

Perhaps - although with a new CEO, using Profar to land David Price then signing Cano is on the table too - riskier, more expensive, but also the best available guys at 2 spots.

 

I will never question the FO of Tampa ... they seem to know when to pull the trigger. Profar will give them control for many years but it will take more than Profar to seal the deal ... do you agree? Texas would have one hell of a lineup with Beltre, Cano, Fielder. even if they did not go after Price.

[sk7326]

I will never question the FO of Tampa ... they seem to know when to pull the trigger. Profar will give them control for many years but it will take more than Profar to seal the deal ... do you agree? Texas would have one hell of a lineup with Beltre, Cano, Fielder. even if they did not go after Price.

 

Texas has some options. The big bet they are making is that Fielder had an off-year, and that he did not hit a decline as a 29 year old. Keith Law in his writeup noted that the line drive rates were still high last season, and the batted ball statistics were not indicative of a dude who lost bat speed. So there is at least some reason to think that last year was a hiccup. It's an expensive bet clearly. If they cannot find a better option than Moreland (Napoli is still a possibility there), you can keep Moreland, DH Fielder and then Profar-Andrus-Beltre around the horn.

 

I think Profar is the sort of prospect (like Bogaerts is) who Tampa could see as a future star at SS, and locking down that position for a decade is worth a starting pitcher - shortstop is that important a position. It would take more than Profar (depending on their eval of him) but not MUCH more.

[marklmw]

Texas has some options. The big bet they are making is that Fielder had an off-year, and that he did not hit a decline as a 29 year old. Keith Law in his writeup noted that the line drive rates were still high last season, and the batted ball statistics were not indicative of a dude who lost bat speed. So there is at least some reason to think that last year was a hiccup. It's an expensive bet clearly. If they cannot find a better option than Moreland (Napoli is still a possibility there), you can keep Moreland, DH Fielder and then Profar-Andrus-Beltre around the horn.

 

I think Profar is the sort of prospect (like Bogaerts is) who Tampa could see as a future star at SS, and locking down that position for a decade is worth a starting pitcher - shortstop is that important a position. It would take more than Profar (depending on their eval of him) but not MUCH more.

 

Ok ... I do not see Texas going after Napoli but anything is possible I suppose. Ortiz is your one in a million DH. I would rather use the DH position to insert players based on pitching match-ups. That is quite a bit of money to be spending on a DH. Even with Detroit kicking in 30M Fielder is still costing a tad under 20M per. I think that Detroit got the better of this deal

[seabeachfred]

Fred ... you need to relax. Nothing creates better team chemistry than winning. It also helps to have the leadership of Papi and Pedey and rid yourself of AGon and Beckett. Lackey imo is still somewhat of a problem child but he seems to be growing up a little. It is no surprise to me that the Sox are open to deals involving Lackey, Peavy and Dempster. Ben did a fabulous job putting the 2013 team together and he deserves the benefit of the doubt with respect to Napoli. Throughout the 2013 season Napoli had his ups and downs, same with Drew ... after we win a Championship and finish on a high note all of these issues have now been long forgotten by the fans but hopefully not by management. I am sure that the FO would love to put the exact same team on the field next season but unfortunately that would not be possible due to the 4 FA's and their own personal expectations. It is a fine art to put a team together that can address most of your needs and within a set amount of money. There are so many moving parts that the FO has to consider ... they have to look 3-4 years ahead where as the average fan is only looking at 2014.

Do you really think that a platoon of Hart & Carp could not give you the same numbers as Napoli?

Just an educated guess as there is no way to know for sure.

 

Perhaps, but Hart hasn't played in over a year and we don't how Carp would perform as a regular since he has never seen regular action in the Major Leagues. I just firmly believe that Mike Napoli is the best fit for the Red Sox, and as I've said before, I can be patient with our other needs and let time take its course but I don't think that with Napoli. I personally feel that with a full season in Red Sox Red under his belt he could have even better years for us with a new contract. The guy ate up the Yankees this past season, was a terrific clutch hitter for us in the Playoffs and was a team leader in the clubhouse as well as a good defensive first baseman. I also don't know how Hart would want to be in a platoon situation when he has never been anything but a regular in his career and he is more of an outfielder than first baseman. Still, it looks like I will just have to wait and keep my fingers crossed.

[marklmw]

Perhaps, but Hart hasn't played in over a year and we don't how Carp would perform as a regular since he has never seen regular action in the Major Leagues. I just firmly believe that Mike Napoli is the best fit for the Red Sox, and as I've said before, I can be patient with our other needs and let time take its course but I don't think that with Napoli. I personally feel that with a full season in Red Sox Red under his belt he could have even better years for us with a new contract. The guy ate up the Yankees this past season, was a terrific clutch hitter for us in the Playoffs and was a team leader in the clubhouse as well as a good defensive first baseman. I also don't know how Hart would want to be in a platoon situation when he has never been anything but a regular in his career and he is more of an outfielder than first baseman. Still, it looks like I will just have to wait and keep my fingers crossed.

I am with you Fred as are most Sox fans. I have Napoli at #1option and Hart/Carp at # 2. You just never know what will happen. We get Napoli and his hip does fail, we get Hart and he hits 35 HR's and 100+ RBI's. Every team is unique and the 2014 should be a nice combination of youth and experience.

[SoxSport]

Perhaps, but Hart hasn't played in over a year and we don't how Carp would perform as a regular since he has never seen regular action in the Major Leagues. I just firmly believe that Mike Napoli is the best fit for the Red Sox, and as I've said before, I can be patient with our other needs and let time take its course but I don't think that with Napoli. I personally feel that with a full season in Red Sox Red under his belt he could have even better years for us with a new contract. The guy ate up the Yankees this past season, was a terrific clutch hitter for us in the Playoffs and was a team leader in the clubhouse as well as a good defensive first baseman. I also don't know how Hart would want to be in a platoon situation when he has never been anything but a regular in his career and he is more of an outfielder than first baseman. Still, it looks like I will just have to wait and keep my fingers crossed.

 

I think they should stick with the platooning and the players that worked last year. Farrell is probably in agreement.

[marklmw]

I think they should stick with the platooning and the players that worked last year. Farrell is probably in agreement.

Hart is Napoli. Hart played 102 games at 1B. Hart kills LHP. Carp can platoon with Hart but Hart can still hit RHP ... the majority of his HR's are against RHP. If Hart is hot you keep him in ... if he needs a day off and the SP is RH then a perfect time to start Carp. If the Sox do loose out on Napoli and Hart then there is some concern. Then Carp becomes 1B and Alex Hassan might get a look at a platoon situation. It would be very smart of Hassan to be working out with a 1B mitt this off season. The Sox will do well in 2014 no matter what happens with 1B.

[User Name]

Good post. And weren't they working Hassan out at 1B last year?

[marklmw]

Good post. And weren't they working Hassan out at 1B last year?

I'll have to look at that. Hassan is a good story ... Quincy boy. BC High. Very disciplined strike zone.

[Dojji]

Good post. And weren't they working Hassan out at 1B last year?

 

They were, but he only got in a handful of games. I don't know whether that means anything, and if so, what it might mean.

[marklmw]

They were, but he only got in a handful of games. I don't know whether that means anything, and if so, what it might mean.

 

It really does not mean squat ... but Hassan is a gold glove caliber OF at the same time. The Sox are loaded with talent I think we should be planning for the 2015 season as many of our younger boys on the farm will be making moves this year.

[Dojji]

Or possibly insurance for Gomes, or a platoon partner for Carp, or both. There's a lot of good reasons to try a RHH that can hit a little at first base right now.

[Palodios]

Is anyone else getting the feeling that the Red Sox are actually trying to re-sign Ellsbury? His market seems slow, and there hasn't been much movement by the Red Sox so far. Most of the guys the Red Sox have targeted are bargain bin type players, ie Hudson, Ruiz, Hannigan -- as if they are leaving a big chunk of money open for him.

[marklmw]

Is anyone else getting the feeling that the Red Sox are actually trying to re-sign Ellsbury? His market seems slow, and there hasn't been much movement by the Red Sox so far. Most of the guys the Red Sox have targeted are bargain bin type players, ie Hudson, Ruiz, Hannigan -- as if they are leaving a big chunk of money open for him.

Good point. It is a really tough decision. I would love to have him back ... one of the top 2 lead-off hitters in the game today. Can the Sox afford to sign Ells and Naps at the same time. I suppose they could as Naps will be signing for years and not much of an increase per. Ell's can eat up the savings on Drew. That being said I think that the Yankees are going to after hard... not that he is their top need but to make the Sox weaker as they get stronger. Damon worked out pretty well for them

[Bellhorn04]

Is anyone else getting the feeling that the Red Sox are actually trying to re-sign Ellsbury? His market seems slow, and there hasn't been much movement by the Red Sox so far. Most of the guys the Red Sox have targeted are bargain bin type players, ie Hudson, Ruiz, Hannigan -- as if they are leaving a big chunk of money open for him.

 

Impossible to say, really. From what we know of Cherington he leaves all his options open as much as possible.

[seabeachfred]

Is anyone else getting the feeling that the Red Sox are actually trying to re-sign Ellsbury? His market seems slow, and there hasn't been much movement by the Red Sox so far. Most of the guys the Red Sox have targeted are bargain bin type players, ie Hudson, Ruiz, Hannigan -- as if they are leaving a big chunk of money open for him.

 

I first got that feeling this past Saturday when I noticed that the market for him hadn't begun to really materialize, and, perhaps, there are some teams very leery of dealing once again with Boras. Still, I can't help feeling that if we make a move for Jacoby the Yankees will jump in just as they did for Damon and Teixiera. I read on another board how Ellsbury enjoyed playing with his teammates this past season and that any ill feelings he had toward Boston (medical staff ineptness and Epstink's stupid move of him to LF) had long dissipated. We'll know more in a couple of weeks perhaps. Jacoby could do something about this right now if he wanted to. He could tell Boras he wants to stay with the Red Sox and to make the best deal he can for him.....just as Weaver with him to stay in Anaheim. So far as I know he hasn't done that. It depends just how much he likes the Red Sox and his teammates and how much he likes playing in a packed ballpark with a proven winner.

[Station 13]

Is anyone else getting the feeling that the Red Sox are actually trying to re-sign Ellsbury? His market seems slow, and there hasn't been much movement by the Red Sox so far. Most of the guys the Red Sox have targeted are bargain bin type players, ie Hudson, Ruiz, Hannigan -- as if they are leaving a big chunk of money open for him.

 

The Red Sox have offered him 2 contract, 1 was around $100M (around 2011) and the other was around $75M (recently). I would be surprise if they go the distant for him.

[jung]

I still think the really big FA signing (of which Ells is one) will be very late in coming this year. Nobody really big is going to take the first thing offered or likely even the second thing offered unless it hits their numbers. On the other hand the teams are afraid that they will be making the market for the player...something of a stalemate. Obviously McCann went because the Yanks hit his number and they probably even gave him a time frame to accept or they would pull it back.

[Dojji]

Impossible to say, really. From what we know of Cherington he leaves all his options open as much as possible.

 

I'm personally kind of curious if one of those options is bringing in Curtis Granderson on a short term value-builder deal. That would shock a lot of people, but on a short term contract Granderson would make a ton of sense. He's the right age, the talent is all still there, and he's coming off a lost year. it's a thought worth thinking.

[Palodios]

I'm personally kind of curious if one of those options is bringing in Curtis Granderson on a short term value-builder deal. That would shock a lot of people, but on a short term contract Granderson would make a ton of sense. He's the right age, the talent is all still there, and he's coming off a lost year. it's a thought worth thinking.

 

I've been promoting the idea of Granderson for a while. I don't think he would be interested in a 1 year deal though... he'll have no problem getting an AAV of 15 million on 3-4 years.

Edited November 25, 2013 by Palodios

[Dojji]

But if he's back to his old form this year, next year he could add about 33% to that contract very easily. Pay him 1 year 20M, and he'll find someone to pay him 3-4 years at 20M AAV after this year if he regains his value.

[Palodios]

But if he's back to his old form this year, next year he could add about 33% to that contract very easily. Pay him 1 year 20M, and he'll find someone to pay him 3-4 years at 20M AAV after this year if he regains his value.

 

4/60 in the hand is better than 4/80 in the bush. At 34, I wouldn't see him that much of an opportunity to cash in for much more.

[User Name]

The best case scenario for a Jacoby-Red Sox reunion right now is for Cruz/Granderson/Beltran/Choo to go to any combination of Yankees/Seattle/Texas/Cinci, since that pretty much solidifies the Red Sox as his A-1 option, and might get him to sign for something like 5/90. That's a hell of a lot more palatable than the 6/120 Seattle was reportedly prepared to offer him.

[marklmw]

The best case scenario for a Jacoby-Red Sox reunion right now is for Cruz/Granderson/Beltran/Choo to go to any combination of Yankees/Seattle/Texas/Cinci, since that pretty much solidifies the Red Sox as his A-1 option, and might get him to sign for something like 5/90. That's a hell of a lot more palatable than the 6/120 Seattle was reportedly prepared to offer him.

That would be nice UN.

[Palodios]

A report came out a few weeks ago that Seattle really isn't interested in Ellsbury, and it is just another Boras marketing ploy. For a team with poor pitching like theirs, it makes more sense to add two bats at 60 a piece or three at 40 a piece than one injury prone bat at 120.