Should we resign Jacoby Ellsbury?

[sk7326]

Oddity? 2012 was the oddity, not 2013. The guy is a stud, has always been a stud. He had one bad year that people harped about.

 

2012 WAS an oddity ... but the decline from 2011-2012 at his age is more typical than the rise to fringe-MVP level from 2012-2013. To say there is no age-related downside is silly, although if he were just an average player the next 2 years the contract is a huge win for Boston. At the same time, yes, I am encouraged because he made a couple of permanent changes which might have lasting positive impact - especially giving up left-handed hitting.

[RedSoxNC84]

The best CF I've heard rumors of is Denard Span. Top notch defense, 20 SB, career .350 OBP. The Nationals are shopping him... depends on if they are looking for a real return or just to dump him, but he seems like a perfect fill-in while we wait for Bradley.

 

That is actually a pretty good idea. Span has had success in the AL. His isolated power is a little lacking, BB% is down, but he does have a low K%, and his BABIP has always been around .300. He's been an average of a 3 WAR player for years. His uzr in center field is pretty decent too.

[RedSoxNC84]

Oddity? 2012 was the oddity, not 2013. The guy is a stud, has always been a stud. He had one bad year that people harped about.

 

I don't get this sometimes.. People on here talk about guys that are 31 and 32 as if they are in their 40s and 50s. 32 is not old, by any means. Guys 29-33 are more or less in their peak as far as being an all around type player.

[Palodios]

2012 WAS an oddity ... but the decline from 2011-2012 at his age is more typical than the rise to fringe-MVP level from 2012-2013. To say there is no age-related downside is silly, although if he were just an average player the next 2 years the contract is a huge win for Boston. At the same time, yes, I am encouraged because he made a couple of permanent changes which might have lasting positive impact - especially giving up left-handed hitting.

 

I see no merit to this argument. If his speed started to go in 2012, that would be one thing, but he had his career best SB that year, so I don't think there is any reason why he would see a sharp decline at age 31.

[RedSoxNC84]

I see no merit to this argument. If his speed started to go in 2012, that would be one thing, but he had his career best SB that year, so I don't think there is any reason why he would see a sharp decline at age 31.

 

The only thing that would suggest a decline at that age is injury.

[sk7326]

I see no merit to this argument. If his speed started to go in 2012, that would be one thing, but he had his career best SB that year, so I don't think there is any reason why he would see a sharp decline at age 31.

 

Pronounced platoon splits which were getting worse. His defensive metrics were slipping some, though he is more good than amazing as CF throughout. There was a real possibility that he just cannot produce acceptable quality from the left side. The Red Sox deserve a lot of credit for seeing the defensive value he'd add moving to a corner - and there was some good fortune with the hamstring injury which got Victorino to focus on the side of the plate he is actually good at. I am happy to be wrong about him.

[Spitball]

I like Victorino in right field...especially in Fenway's spacious right field. Plus, I think it is a very good idea to move center fielders to a corner outfield spot as they age. Center fielders have a lot of wear and tear on their legs as the cover their position and back-up the other outfielders. Fred Lynn, Eric Davis, Torii Hunter, and Junior Griffey were among the former Gold Glove center fielders who moved to corner spots.

 

As for Denard Span, I doubt he will come cheaply. Just a year ago the Nationals gave up a top pitching prospect in Alex Meyer to acquire him.

[Palodios]

As for Denard Span, I doubt he will come cheaply. Just a year ago the Nationals gave up a top pitching prospect in Alex Meyer to acquire him.

 

I expect him to be available for a mid-tier prospect -- maybe even someone like Morales. At 6.5 million with one year remaining, he isn't exactly a steal. He also only had a .700 OPS last year. The Nationals look a bit overextended financially right now.

[User Name]

Franklin Morales has negative value right now. You probably couldn't get Jayson Nix for him.

[marklmw]

How about the Sox give JBJ a shot. He showed that he can play the field ... scouting report says he was born to play center. His numbers in AAA suggest that he can produce a respectable OBP and we have the players to allow him to bat at the back of the line-up.

[sk7326]

I like Victorino in right field...especially in Fenway's spacious right field. Plus, I think it is a very good idea to move center fielders to a corner outfield spot as they age. Center fielders have a lot of wear and tear on their legs as the cover their position and back-up the other outfielders. Fred Lynn, Eric Davis, Torii Hunter, and Junior Griffey were among the former Gold Glove center fielders who moved to corner spots.

 

As for Denard Span, I doubt he will come cheaply. Just a year ago the Nationals gave up a top pitching prospect in Alex Meyer to acquire him.

 

Moving to a corner makes sense - although in all of the cases you cite, those were very much corner-level bats (or at least Hunter could fake it and Lynn and Davis were when their bodies were not falling to pieces). Victorino is less so but clearly sticking with right-handed allowed to access his power a lot more frequently. The caution about his season is how much of it was tied with his defensive performance. Certainly metrically, it was a phenomenal season - but we also know defensive measurement is still evolving.

 

I tend to advocate more for a backup-upside sort. Moving Victorino to CF weakens 2 positions, but there is nothing wrong with supplementing the outfield force.

[Spitball]

Moving to a corner makes sense - although in all of the cases you cite, those were very much corner-level bats (or at least Hunter could fake it and Lynn and Davis were when their bodies were not falling to pieces).

 

Their bodies were falling apart largely because they played center field. Griffey definitely fits that mold, also. The position is a drain on the legs and body.

Victorino is less so but clearly sticking with right-handed allowed to access his power a lot more frequently. The caution about his season is how much of it was tied with his defensive performance. Certainly metrically, it was a phenomenal season - but we also know defensive measurement is still evolving.

 

I tend to advocate more for a backup-upside sort. Moving Victorino to CF weakens 2 positions, but there is nothing wrong with supplementing the outfield force.

 

I don't think we are disagreeing. With his leg and back issues, he needs to be in right field.

[Spitball]

Franklin Morales has negative value right now. You probably couldn't get Jayson Nix for him.

 

Right. There is no way the Nationals trade a top pitching prospect for Span one year and justify trading him away for a Franklin Morales the next. Span's numbers were down but not by a significant amount.

[Palodios]

Right. There is no way the Nationals trade a top pitching prospect for Span one year and justify trading him away for a Franklin Morales the next. Span's numbers were down but not by a significant amount.

 

Alex Wilson ? One year of Span at 6 million is not worth much more than that.

[Spitball]

Alex Wilson ? One year of Span at 6 million is not worth much more than that.

 

Haha! If Span is not worth more than Alex Wilson, the Sox definitely don't need him.

[SoxSport]

The thing about Ells is he is replaceable. They have JBJ, who could be better. And cheaper.

 

I don't think you want to pay Boras bucks to keep a guy who has flaws, is not part of the team character (he really isn't), and is replaceable perhaps with a better player in Bradley. Ells is a very good player when he's healthy, but he has little or no power and doesn't walk much for a leadoff batter. Besides, he is going to get overpaid with Boras. Stolen bases?

Speed is important, but you only count SB numbers in fantasy. They have alternatives for SBs.

[SoxSport]

Bradley had the same numbers in AAA as Bogaerts. When he came up in Sept, I saw him hit a HR over the Red Sox BP against a LHP. He can hit lefties and has more power than Ellsbury. Potentially a better player.

 

Bradley's problem last year was he was blocked in the OF. If Ells goes elsewhere, he will not be blocked. It's that simple. He is ready.

[sk7326]

Bradley had the same numbers in AAA as Bogaerts. When he came up in Sept, I saw him hit a HR over the Red Sox BP against a LHP. He can hit lefties and has more power than Ellsbury. Potentially a better player.

 

Bradley's problem last year was he was blocked in the OF. If Ells goes elsewhere, he will not be blocked. It's that simple. He is ready.

 

Kinda sorta - his problem was that he had an amazing spring, and thus made us forget he had just so few reps. He got ABs against big league taxi-squadders, that helps a lot.

[Dojji]

The thing about Ells is he is replaceable. They have JBJ, who could be better. And cheaper.

.

 

Cheaper sure, if we were going to spend the money elsewhere that'd be a factor, but I don't see where that would be. And Bradley definitely has potential down the road, I'd be lying if I denied that. but to expect it out of him next year when he's still as inexperienced as he is is asking quite a bit.

Edited November 12, 2013 by Dojji

[sk7326]

Cheaper sure, if we were going to spend the money elsewhere that'd be a factor, but I don't see where that would be. And Bradley definitely has potential down the road, I'd be lying if I denied that. but to expect it out of him next year when he's still as inexperienced as he is is asking quite a bit.

 

Well, depends on what you have as an expectation for next year. If he fields the position like he is capable and gets on base at a league-average sort of level, that is plenty for him to be valuable in Year 1, with plenty of upside beyond that.

 

I will note again: 10 HR, 10 SB, .360+ OBP who fields the crap out of centerfield - is an All Star. He is not nearly as far away as it looks.

[marklmw]

Well, depends on what you have as an expectation for next year. If he fields the position like he is capable and gets on base at a league-average sort of level, that is plenty for him to be valuable in Year 1, with plenty of upside beyond that.

 

I will note again: 10 HR, 10 SB, .360+ OBP who fields the crap out of centerfield - is an All Star. He is not nearly as far away as it looks.

 

Dojji is spreading bad JBJ karma all over this site. What did Drew bat in the WS? CF is the SS of the Outfield. You build championship teams up the middle ... Catcher, SS, CF. We won the WS without a top 10 Catcher. JBJ already has shown that he can play CF and produce above average OBP at a very high level. The Sox do not view AAA Pawtucket as the Minors but more of an extended bench of majors. Any player at AAA should be able to contribute when called upon.

[sk7326]

Dojji is spreading bad JBJ karma all over this site. What did Drew bat in the WS? CF is the SS of the Outfield. You build championship teams up the middle ... Catcher, SS, CF. We won the WS without a top 10 Catcher. JBJ already has shown that he can play CF and produce above average OBP at a very high level. The Sox do not view AAA Pawtucket as the Minors but more of an extended bench of majors. Any player at AAA should be able to contribute when called upon.

 

It is an industry-wide shift over the years. AAA is really a taxi squad ... AA is the true "prospects vs prospects" league

[jung]

I don't think the issue is JBJ for the Sox. I think the Sox would be fine with starting the season with JBJ in CF. I think it is more the likelihood of being very young up the middle if JBJ is in CF and XB is the everyday SS. I think the Sox would love to have Drew back but not for some number that presupposes that he will be better offensively than he was. That is the play Boras is going to make. He is going to try to get somebody to pay Drew for offensive numbers that he has not proven he can produce since returning from injury. Top 5 of 2013 SS's is meaningless when the SS's as a group were so anemic at the plate.

 

This may finally be why the Sox have such little interest in seeing Salty come back. They will need an experienced, competent Catcher if they have as much youth spread around up the middle as they may well have. While Salty has made progress, he still catches like a journeyman catcher even with a pitching staff that he knows! God help him if he ends up with a new team and a whole new staff to handle.

Edited November 12, 2013 by jung

[sk7326]

Well the shift from the Nomah days is defense being just easier for teams to understand fully. When you look at comps for Drew - Elvis Andrus is the obvious one - a plus defender with solid on-base skills is going to get a look. Clearly the industry is a lot smarter about the value of strength up the middle than it was even a decade ago. Clearly the Drew family has a lot of trust in Boras, and he has been a very good advisor. Also - and this is why looking at gross salaries now is a little bit misleading - is that there is baseball's economic reality. Teams are drowning in cash, and the current CBA hamstrings a lot of these teams from pouring it into the farm - since signing international FAs and draft picks are now much harder. The result is a lot of money chasing not an amazing group of players - and as teams have gotten smarter about resigning guys, I don't expect FA classes to get that much better. Drew can get $12-$14 a year just on the basis of fitting into one of these Judge Smailses salary structures. I do expect that his glorious injury history will prevent teams from signing him without SOME sort of protection. But he can be a 3-4 win sort of player, and he is sort of asking the going rate for that type of dude.

 

Xander as the starting SS makes sense - and is a fair decision for the franchise. But when you make that choice, you are hoping for a Derek Jeter sort of tradeoff - below average but acceptable defense and a bat that is a wonder to behold. I suspect the Red Sox would have been overjoyed for Drew to take the QO - but had no expectation that they will agree on a multi-year answer. He has an injury history, but when healthy he is clearly a top shelf SS (he had a bad month at the plate, and his "true outcome" sort of production shape is what it is), and all it takes is one team with a need.

Edited November 12, 2013 by sk7326

[Dojji]

Dojji is spreading bad JBJ karma all over this site.

 

No, what I'm doing is applying the brakes on the narrative people are spreading which is based more on hope than reason.

 

I have Bradley pegged at the David Dejesus level. No one would object if we got one of Dejesus' early seasons out of Bradley, me least of all. But the comparisons I've seen to Trout just make me cringe. He's just not that type of player and I am a little worried about his ability to make proper contact with big league pitches next year. I don't expect that to be a problem that lingers indefinitely, I just want a backup plan for next year alone. Barring the unforseen he should improve up to a sufficient level with time and experience.

 

With that said he doesn't even come close to Ellsbury's toolset, especially not until we know more about how his power is going to develop at the big league level. Ells's power looked pretty sweet in the minors too, and it turned out to be more than sufficient for a speed player but nothing spectacular, with the exception of one year. So far Bradley's shown similar or less power, and with no speed to back it up.

 

People want Bradley to be the answer because they know in their hearts that Ellsbury is probably gone. that's fine, but the problem comes when they start predicting that it will happen, without attempting any objective analysis at all of Bradley's actual skill level. that becomes an example of a phenomenon known as magical thinking. That doesn't mean that it automatically won't turn out that way, but to proclaim that it will simply because there's no current better alternative, is still a logical fallacy.

Edited November 12, 2013 by Dojji

[User Name]

Dojji, you seem to still have reading comprehension problems.

 

The "Trout comparison" you speak of was made by Mark. Mark has made the disclaimer several times that the point was not compare Trout to JBJ directly, since they are obviously not similar. The point was that it's not uncommon for guys to struggle when first called up and then perform up to their talent levels.

 

As for the rest of your post, i find it hilarious to see you talking about logical fallacies. What are you even talking about? People want Bradley to be the answer because he has awesome on-base skills and elite-level D. People have made their peace with Ellsbury leaving with or without JBJ because they know it would be a stupid investment. What you're saying here is pure gibberish, and another example of your typical contrarian nature.

[jung]

It will be interesting to see what finally happens with Drew. BA is all he really gives you at the plate. 20 more points of BA and he gets the big contract. However that is another hit a week during the season and Drew piled up so many 0-30's that it became his mantra which is why I still think Boras is going to try go get somebody to sign him on the come.

 

Might work out. The only teams that are going to have interest are teams with a real shot at the post season...somebody looking to have the same stout post season defense that the Sox showed and need a SS to do it...ala the Cards. There is nothing additive to Drew as an asset. There is no excitement there like there is with Ells for example. So he is not a face of the franchise type nor is he even a flashy SS. He is solid as a rock though. I don't know that the field of interest at any number like 12-14 per is greater than the Cards and it may not even be the Cards. IMO, they just need a SS that does not have two left feet. LA might have interest for no other reason than once again another LA sizzle move. "See, we got you the WS SS".....whatever....LA is whacked and has spent themselves into the dreaded "predicted to win the WS in 2014" spot. Drew would resolve a number of the "up the middle" issues that the Sox have ala' might be really young up the middle. But, I don't see them forking over 12-14 per to see Steven pile up more 0-30's.

 

My contention with Drew is that folks toss around 3/30 like that is a win for Drew over taking the QO and at least in my opinion it is not at all a win. At 3/30 I take the QO and try to add that 20 points of BA in 2014 and then cash in on it next year.

[User Name]

BA is the only thing Drew gives you? He had a sub .260 BA, but a .443 SLG% with 50 XBH in 125 games. What he provided was a decent OBP and above-average power for a SS. What exactly are you talking about here jung?

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah, that's pretty confusing jung. Drew's strength is his SLG, not his BA.

[jung]

BA is the only thing Drew gives you? He had a sub .260 BA, but a .443 SLG% with 50 XBH in 125 games. What he provided was a decent OBP and above-average power for a SS. What exactly are you talking about here jung?

 

All of which got Drew a slot 7th or 8th in a lineup that you would not consider murderer's row. If he had power that mattered he would be batting higher in the order. Again his offense looks better than the average SS but the average SS can't hit his weight these days. It just does not matter, for all but the top two or three offensive SS's in baseball. Nor do I think anybody will be convinced that his power numbers will improve from where they are....but 20 points of BA....that is doable and would move his salary projections a long long way IMO. BA improvement is what he gives you to work with if you are trying to convince somebody to pay 12-14 per on a three year deal. Since there is no baseball, the only game anybody can play is the "what will you pay me game".

 

For months we often mused as did the rest of baseball that the Sox even with Napoli could not adequately protect Ortiz. This team was not some power monster. This team generated offense out of implementing a team wide process and being staunch enough as a group, stubborn enough to stick with it and not fall apart into trying to satisfy their separate, individual goals. They instead stuck with the idea that their separate, individual goals were best satisfied by sticking with the team wide process. The only regular that swam against that tide was Ells early in the season when he tried to pump his HR numbers. Finally when there were no HR's worth talking about to show for his effort and his BA had fallen below 250, he finally gave that up, jumped on the bandwagon and started to approach his AB's like a lead off hitter. He was never as patient as we would have liked but save a few more walks he started producing in 2013 like you would expect a lead off hitter to produce, made up all the ground he had lost trying to hit dingers and turned in a very good year IMO.

 

It will be really interesting to watch what happens with the guys that leave Boston. I expect Salty to suffer away from this team at this stage of his career both in the field and at the plate. Drew will be fine if some team signs him and keeps him stuffed down there about 7th or 8th in the lineup as I don't expect his defense to suddenly leave him in one year. If somebody signs him for a bunch of money and moves him up the order....watch out! Naps might end up facing expectations that are tough for him to meet if he leaves but I expect him back here. Ells will go from the top of this order to the top of some other team's order. He should be fine wherever he goes.