Your favorite red sox player( on the current team)

[marklmw]

As you all know by now ... I have a man crush on Ellsbury. He is the best lead off hitter in baseball now that Trout has been hitting 2nd or 3rd in the order.

[lospunchados]

It's obviously the guys who have been around forever Pedroia and Papi.

But if you just exclude those obvious picks then Nava.

[Thunder]

As you all know by now ... I have a man crush on Ellsbury. He is the best lead off hitter in baseball now that Trout has been hitting 2nd or 3rd in the order.

 

We don't all know that...

You could argue that there are better lead off hitters, but Ells is in the top 5 in my mind.

[redsoxfan3]

This is probably an easy choice for anyone to make, but mine is Dustin Pedroia, and he is my favorite by a long shot. I heard about him a little bit after he was drafted in the second round in 2004. I really started to like him when he was in Portland. He got promoted from Portland to Pawtucket in 2005. In 2006, he got promoted to the majors toward the end of the year. If I remember correctly, it was the 2006 year that Pedroia came into Spring Training and was out of shape. I think he hurt himself his first at-bat. I followed his progression throughout his stint in Pawtucket throughout 2006 and was disappointed with the way he hit in the majors that year. In 2007, he came out and won the AL Rookie of the Year and we won the World Series. In 2008, he won the AL MVP.

 

I can't say I knew he was going to be my favorite player after following him in 2005 and 2006, but I must say that I have never followed a prospect as closely as him. The reason he became my favorite player was the way that he played the game. He is a short 5'8. He played with the mentality that no one is going to stop him. After hearing about him coming into Spring Training out of shape in 2006 and seeing the success that he had throughout his rookie year in 2007, that is when I chose him to be my favorite player. It definitely made it easy to continue having him as my favorite player with his MVP season in '08.

 

He is a small guy, he has overcame a lot of doubt, and he plays the game the right way. He will get hurt and still be in the starting lineup the next day (look at today for example). His heart, his leadership, and his hustle are all different reasons why he is my favorite player. I was a second baseman in high school when he was the second baseman for the Red Sox in 2007. He played the same position that I still play, so I did what I could to learn from the way that he plays to translate that into the way that I play. He is a franchise player here in Boston. He is one of the leaders on this team. I can't picture the Red Sox without him. He was my role model in high school, and he is still my favorite player today.

[SCM33]

Ryan Dempster....

[Dojji]

Guess.

 

I've actually been very pleasantly impressed by Nava's ability to maintain a ~.800 OPS this year. That's not worldbeating corner OF, but if your leftfielder has an .800 OPS it's hard to say you have a hole in left.

 

I've also been thrilled by Uehara's performance, and I look forward to getting Andrew Miller back whenever that might happen.

[rjortiz]

Guess.

 

I've actually been very pleasantly impressed by Nava's ability to maintain a ~.800 OPS this year. That's not worldbeating corner OF, but if your leftfielder has an .800 OPS it's hard to say you have a hole in left.

 

I've also been thrilled by Uehara's performance, and I look forward to getting Andrew Miller back whenever that might happen.

 

I wouldn't go as far as to say you'd have a hole, but Nava full time in LF is definitely below average.

[Dojji]

I disagree. You're going to have about 10 left fielders that definitely outperform Nava in a given year, but that's not where "below average" starts for left field.

 

You're forgetting that the league's offense declined over the last few years. It's harder to find that thunderbat left fielder than it used to be.

 

From the standpoint of the stereotypical left fielder yes, Nava comes up short (literally). From the standpoint of cleats-on-the-grass reality, he's an average LF.

[VA Sox Fan]

Ryan Dempster is currently my favorite Red Sox player!

[Thunder]

Ryan Dempster is currently my favorite Red Sox player!

 

I will agree if we end up winning.

[rjortiz]

I disagree. You're going to have about 10 left fielders that definitely outperform Nava in a given year, but that's not where "below average" starts for left field.

 

You're forgetting that the league's offense declined over the last few years. It's harder to find that thunderbat left fielder than it used to be.

 

From the standpoint of the stereotypical left fielder yes, Nava comes up short (literally). From the standpoint of cleats-on-the-grass reality, he's an average LF.

 

10? It's more than that. He gets on base, and he hits right handers, but he's a terrible fielder, a terrible baserunner, and cannot hit left handed pitching. If he played full-time, it would be even more obvious, but the Red Sox can hide his weaknesses with Gomes. He definitely would not have a .800 OPS with more AB's against lefties. He's a good bench option, but he's not a starter.

[Dojji]

I'm not sure those criticisms are enough to invalidate Nava as a starter. It's not like you run into tough lefthanders every day, or that you ask your left fielder in Boston to be a defensive wizard, and we were going to need a righty on the bench anyway because no matter what happens our outfield is going to be thick with lefthanders (plus the allegedly "switch-hitting" Victorino whose sample size against RHP is even smaller than Nava's).

 

Look around the league and this time look past the glitzy names in the top 5-6 men in left. They're irrelevant to the argument. There's going to be about 10 big name LF that are better than an average LF on a consistent basis, 10 that are worse, consistently, and about 10 in the middle, which the average player could be anywhere on that part of the list. That's where I'd say Nava is. He's middle-10. One year he'll be 18th, another year he'll be good or the crop will be a little worse and he's up to 12th. We're not used to those guys, this is a big market "superstar at every position" team, or so it sees itself, so it's quick to dismiss the grinders, but a team can deal with a number of middle-10 players and still be a contender.

 

As for the baserunning thing? Come on, that's irrelevant and you know it. This is a station to station doubles hitting team. That's what the park's built for, that's what the roster's built for. Not stealing your way into surplus outs is the way this team tends to need to operate anyway. A guy with a high OBP who doesn't create outs on the basepaths is perfect for how our offense actually works.

Edited August 19, 2013 by Dojji

[rjortiz]

I'm not sure those criticisms are enough to invalidate Nava as a starter. It's not like you run into tough lefthanders every day, and we were going to need a righty on the bench anyway because no matter what happens our outfield is going to be thick with lefthanders (plus the allegedly "switch-hitting" Victorino whose sample size against RHP is even smaller than Nava's).

 

Look around the league and this time look past the glitzy names in the top 5-6 men in left. They're irrelevant to the argument. There's going to be about 10 big name LF that are better than an average LF on a consistent basis, 10 that are worse, consistently, and about 10 in the middle, which the average player could be anywhere on that part of the list. That's where I'd say Nava is. He's middle-10.

 

How does it not? If you gave Gomes AB's to Nava, they would certainly pull his numbers below an .800 OPS. A .750-.780 OPS player with no defensive skills, and bad baserunning ability isn't that valuable. They are using him exactly the way they should right now. Our starting LF should continue to be Daniel Gomes, or Johnny Nava.

 

Look at his numbers this year. His WAR is 0.9, which is good for 15th out of 20th qualified LF's. If you drop it to 300 PA's, he's 23rd. He has a -11.2 UZR, and adds nothing on the bases. He's a good bench player with some value against right handers, but he's not a starter.

[Bellhorn04]

How does it not? If you gave Gomes AB's to Nava, they would certainly pull his numbers below an .800 OPS. A .750-.780 OPS player with no defensive skills, and bad baserunning ability isn't that valuable. They are using him exactly the way they should right now. Our starting LF should continue to be Daniel Gomes, or Johnny Nava.

 

Look at his numbers this year. His WAR is 0.9, which is good for 15th out of 20th qualified LF's. If you drop it to 300 PA's, he's 23rd. He has a -11.2 UZR, and adds nothing on the bases. He's a good bench player with some value against right handers, but he's not a starter.

 

You are being realistic, I concede. Except that his numbers against righties are actually tremendous at 309/404/463.

[rjortiz]

You are being realistic, I concede. Except that his numbers against righties are actually tremendous at 309/404/463.

 

I acknowledged that in my post. I'm just pointing out that if you gave him 100 more AB's (or however many AB's Gomes has against them) as the starter against lefties, it's going to drag his OPS below .800.

[rjortiz]

 

As for the baserunning thing? Come on, that's irrelevant and you know it. This is a station to station doubles hitting team. That's what the park's built for, that's what the roster's built for. Not stealing your way into surplus outs is the way this team tends to need to operate anyway. A guy with a high OBP who doesn't create outs on the basepaths is perfect for how our offense actually works.

 

Why is it irrelevant? Baserunning is part of the game. Being a terrible baserunner costs your team runs.

[v2freak]

Shane Victorino. Liked him ever since there was that video of Koji Uehara high-fiving guys and scaring Victorino.

[RedSoxNC84]

Ryan Dempster was my favorite player last night for about five seconds. Then he went back to being my least liked player on the team again.

[mvp 78]

Gomes. He plays hard and seems like a guy I'd want over for a bbq. Ortiz is a close second because he'd be good at bay sitting in a pinch.

[Dojji]

0-

Why is it irrelevant? Baserunning is part of the game. Being a terrible baserunner costs your team runs.

 

1: Nava isn't a terrible baserunner. He neither generates nor loses runs on the basepaths by attempting to employ his speed. If you want to use the WAR calculator from Fangraphs that doesn't favor Nava as much as Baseball Reference, you have to accept that Fangraphs calls Nava a pretty neutral baserunner too. You don't get it both ways.

 

2: This team is not built to favor aggressive baserunning. This is an OBP-and-doubles offense and given how the park tends to play offensively it kind of has to be. Home runs useful but not (and cannot be) a primary offensive strategy. Speed is a luxury for this kind of offense, players with it can become a liability if they get careless. Nava is a perfect player for that style in many respects.

 

As it is Ellsbury, Victorino and Pedroia run into too many outs. Considering what the guys behind them are capable of they need to be danged sure before going anywhere. If our offense sucked I could see trying to generate something, but by getting his tail on base and staying parked there, Nava generates more than a few runs for the team.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Dojji, you may be the only one who thinks Nava's baserunning skills aren't terrible.

[rjortiz]

0-

 

1: Nava isn't a terrible baserunner. He neither generates nor loses runs on the basepaths by attempting to employ his speed. If you want to use the WAR calculator from Fangraphs that doesn't favor Nava as much as Baseball Reference, you have to accept that Fangraphs calls Nava a pretty neutral baserunner too. You don't get it both ways.

 

2: This team is not built to favor aggressive baserunning. This is an OBP-and-doubles offense and given how the park tends to play offensively it kind of has to be. Home runs useful but not (and cannot be) a primary offensive strategy. Speed is a luxury for this kind of offense, players with it can become a liability if they get careless. Nava is a perfect player for that style in many respects.

 

As it is Ellsbury, Victorino and Pedroia run into too many outs. Considering what the guys behind them are capable of they need to be danged sure before going anywhere. If our offense sucked I could see trying to generate something, but by getting his tail on base and staying parked there, Nava generates more than a few runs for the team.

 

I overstated Nava's baserunning deficiencies. I'm probably biased based off that terrible game he had a few weeks back. He won't add anything on the bases, either. However, I think the baserunning issue is becoming a red herring. I'm more alarmed at Nava's terrible defense in the field, and his inability to his left-handers thus far. Again, the disagreement we have over Nava is his potential competence as an everyday LF. I have no problem playing Nava in LF against right handers. He has some value in a platoon. Together, he and Gomes could represent a 2 win player in LF. Not great, but not terrible either. I'm just of the opinion that if you play him everyday, he's going to give more runs back in the field, and he's going to see his numbers decline because he struggles against lefties.

 

Getting back to baserunning, I think you are dismissing the value that good baserunners can bring to a team. Home runs and offense are down from the historic levels during the Steroid Era. That means that the stolen base is becoming a more valuable weapon. Ellsbury and Victorino are well-above the break even rate. Without question they add more on the bases than they take away. You also have to factor in their ability to take the extra base. They aren't hugely important, but there is still value to be had in this aspect.

[Dojji]

The only numbers I have for Nava's baserunning put him pretty much at the same level as Dustin Pedroia -- both barely relevant as baserunners (which goes to show that aggressiveness on the paths on Pedroia's part isn't necessarily paying off)

 

Getting back to baserunning, I think you are dismissing the value that good baserunners can bring to a team. Home runs and offense are down from the historic levels during the Steroid Era. That means that the stolen base is becoming a more valuable weapon. Ellsbury and Victorino are well-above the break even rate. Without question they add more on the bases than they take away. You also have to factor in their ability to take the extra base. They aren't hugely important, but there is still value to be had in this aspect

 

Even if you're absolutely right, not everyone on a team needs to be Vince Coleman.

 

You're overstating the significance of the home run as a part of Boston's offensive picture -- and, IMHO, severely underrating the double. This is the best doubles park in the major leagues, this team lives and dies off the double. And when you live and die off the double, you don't need to be as aggressive on the pasepaths to score runs. Getting people on base is usually enough all by itself.

 

If you can get Ellsbury or Victorino from first to second a bit more often that helps a bit, but for a station to station doubles team, speed is a luxury -- and it can bite you in the tail like it is for Pedroia, when a guy who could have been driven in from first on a nice bouncer down the line simply isn't on base anymore. WHen you've got very consistent offensive producers behind your speed guys, those guys need to pick their spots very carefully. This is hurting Pedroia in particular because he's one of those players who wants to "get out there and make something happen" which with this offense is frequently the worst possible idea.

 

Nava has average speed, and he's on base enough that if the team turned him loose, he could probably swipe a base or two. He showed that he can steal 8-10 bases a year in the minors. But he doesn't have the speed that's going to beat an alert catcher with a good arm, so he's better off getting on base and staying on base for the hitters around him -- which is what he does. And it's why he's on pace for about 75-80 runs scored this year despite usually hitting down in the lineup behind the big bats.

Edited August 20, 2013 by Dojji

[Dojji]

The whole debate about whether Nava should be considered the starter, should, by the way, be viewed in light of the fact that he only needs to start half the remaining games this year to get to the 400 AB benchmark, which whether it's convenient for your argument or not, is usually considered where the line is drawn between starter and platoon guy.

 

It doesn't matter what you think his flaws are, Daniel Nava has been a starting level player for the Red Sox this year. Personally I think he's held up pretty well doing the thing some of you are saying he can't do. Good on Gomes for being the righthanded platoon bat we needed to shelter ALL THREE of our seriously lefthanded outfield starters, but he's not a starter himself, he's not on pace and I don't think there's enough games left to get him on pace. That means your starters are, in some order, Ellsbury, Victorino, and Nava.

 

BTW -- for those worried about Nava's defense, his defensive stats took a huge hit when, thanks to Victorino's injury, Nava had to play 50 games in right field, a position he had absolutely no business whatseover playing. Guys who are fringy in left are asking for it if they play extended time in right. Looking at the breakdown in Fangraphs, his UZR/150 was about -9 in left -- solidly below average, but forgivable. His UZR/150 in right field was a Mannyesque -29. Full credit to Nava for manning up enough to play out of position when his team needed him but that injury (and Gomes or Carp being unable to be better than Nava's utter butchery of right field) did not help his dWAR one bit.

 

Thinking about that for just a second, it looks like they might need to make a move actually. We could really use one backup outfielder that can play in right if Victorino goes down. Right now we have 2 backup left fielders -- not ideal. If Victorino goes down your second man on the depth tree in right field is Nava -- in a playoff environmnent, that really doesn't bear thinking about.

Edited August 20, 2013 by Dojji

[Navafan29]

Nava went 3 for 4 in his start today.

[rjortiz]

The whole debate about whether Nava should be considered the starter, should, by the way, be viewed in light of the fact that he only needs to start half the remaining games this year to get to the 400 AB benchmark, which whether it's convenient for your argument or not, is usually considered where the line is drawn between starter and platoon guy.

 

It doesn't matter what you think his flaws are, Daniel Nava has been a starting level player for the Red Sox this year. Personally I think he's held up pretty well doing the thing some of you are saying he can't do. Good on Gomes for being the righthanded platoon bat we needed to shelter ALL THREE of our seriously lefthanded outfield starters, but he's not a starter himself, he's not on pace and I don't think there's enough games left to get him on pace. That means your starters are, in some order, Ellsbury, Victorino, and Nava.

 

BTW -- for those worried about Nava's defense, his defensive stats took a huge hit when, thanks to Victorino's injury, Nava had to play 50 games in right field, a position he had absolutely no business whatseover playing. Guys who are fringy in left are asking for it if they play extended time in right. Looking at the breakdown in Fangraphs, his UZR/150 was about -9 in left -- solidly below average, but forgivable. His UZR/150 in right field was a Mannyesque -29. Full credit to Nava for manning up enough to play out of position when his team needed him but that injury (and Gomes or Carp being unable to be better than Nava's utter butchery of right field) did not help his dWAR one bit.

 

Thinking about that for just a second, it looks like they might need to make a move actually. We could really use one backup outfielder that can play in right if Victorino goes down. Right now we have 2 backup left fielders -- not ideal. If Victorino goes down your second man on the depth tree in right field is Nava -- in a playoff environmnent, that really doesn't bear thinking about.

 

I didn't realize that Nava had played in so many games already. He's projected to finish the season with 131 games played. In those 131 games, he's projected to produce a WAR of 1. That's good for 15th out of 20th for qualified LF. Among all qualified OF's, he's ranked 42nd out of 49th. Those are role player numbers, despite getting starter AB's. Plus, it would be a poor bet to think he's going to get any better. He's already 30, so this might be his peak performance.

 

I don't think we're going to see eye to eye on this one, so I'll just conclude. Daniel Nava is a good left handed bat off the bench. He's not a starter.

Edited August 20, 2013 by rjortiz

[Dojji]

Again,. those WAR numbers are skewed by some extenuating circumstances impacting his dWAR. He really should never be put in right, but the team needed someone to play out of position when Victorino hit the DL and it was Nava who stepped up and took one for the team.

 

Check his UZR/150 numbers on Fangraphs, you'll see what I mean. Nava's not going to hit well enough to make up for a -29 UZR/150 figure over half his defensive sample. He really needs to stay in left field. The problem is Gomes is nearly as bad in right so the team had no choice.

[mvp 78]

So unless he can be a platoon DH, he's not worth much? Is that what you're getting at Doj?

[Bellhorn04]

Baseball-Reference has Nava's WAR at 1.7, which in this case is a big difference from FanGraphs' 1.0.

[Bellhorn04]

Daniel Nava is a good left handed bat off the bench. He's not a starter.

 

To me this is not really an accurate way to describe it. With his numbers against righties he should get every start against them, which means he would be starting about 65% of the time.