2013-2014 Off-Season: Who stays? Who goes?

[Palodios]

Not Giancarlo Stanton.

 

I've said this before, but I'd be all for making a buy-low move on Billy Butler this offseason.

 

I could definitely get on board with Billy Butler. I am nervous about what the Royals would want.... They're tasting their first winning season in a while, and I doubt they'll want to trade their All-Star first baseman for anything except for major league talent. Any trade involving Butler would cost some combination of Doubront, Carp, Workman and Tazawa.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I would give qualifying offers to Ellsbury, Stephen Drew, and maybe Uehara and Napoli. I say maybe, because there is no way in hell they should even let negotiations even get that far with Uehara -- if he doesn't retire, they need to lock him up. They need to check out the market for 1B, but a qualifying offer might make sense, even if it means we have to see him another year. I'd rather hold onto Napoli for one more year than pay 30-40 million for injury-prone Morales and give up a first rounder at the same time.

 

I see the Red Sox making a push for Brian McCann, getting outbid by the Yankees, and re-signing Salty. I'm not thrilled about it, but his .864 OPS against righthanded hitters is probably worth it, assuming they can find a suitable platoon partner for him.

 

Though it is not reflected on Cots, I've read a lot about an option that gets exercised for Uehara if he gets in 1 more game this year.

[Bellhorn04]

Though it is not reflected on Cots, I've read a lot about an option that gets exercised for Uehara if he gets in 1 more game this year.

 

There's no mention of the option on Baseball-Ref, but it says there he's not a free agent until 2015, and he's arbitration-eligible for 2014.

[Lord Snow]

I still don't understand the love of Stanton. He has had exactly one exceptional year, and a very good year before that, but 2013 has been very bland. I know he is still only 23 but doesn't that make him sort of a prospect, then?

 

Why trade a bunch of upper-tier prospects for another upper tier prospect?

 

It's not like this guy is Miguel Cabrera Part II, a player that consistently got better each year in the league. Stanton has power, yes, but thus far has lacked consistency, and health. I am very against selling the farm to acquire him. I could live with sending Jackie Bradley, Garin Cecchini or Will Middlebrooks, and a bunch of lesser prospects. But definitely not Bogaerts, and no more than 2 of the Sox's top 10 young players.

[rjortiz]

I still don't understand the love of Stanton. He has had exactly one exceptional year, and a very good year before that, but 2013 has been very bland. I know he is still only 23 but doesn't that make him sort of a prospect, then?

 

Why trade a bunch of upper-tier prospects for another upper tier prospect?

 

It's not like this guy is Miguel Cabrera Part II, a player that consistently got better each year in the league. Stanton has power, yes, but thus far has lacked consistency, and health. I am very against selling the farm to acquire him. I could live with sending Jackie Bradley, Garin Cecchini or Will Middlebrooks, and a bunch of lesser prospects. But definitely not Bogaerts, and no more than 2 of the Sox's top 10 young players.

 

He's hit 106 HR's at the age of 23. Look at the list of players who have done that. Most of them are in the Hall of Fame.

[sk7326]

Stanton has been a 3 win player from his arrival, and more like a 5 or 6 win one since. 2011 was not an outstanding season, but the rest have been - gets on base regularly and obvious 80 power. My hesitation with Boegarts for Stanton for instance is 3 years of age difference and premium position. But very few players have delivered like Stanton has so young.

[Lord Snow]

Stanton has been a 3 win player from his arrival, and more like a 5 or 6 win one since. 2011 was not an outstanding season, but the rest have been - gets on base regularly and obvious 80 power. My hesitation with Boegarts for Stanton for instance is 3 years of age difference and premium position. But very few players have delivered like Stanton has so young.

 

Bogaerts is the best prospect we have had since Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury. Both of those guys had extremely high ceilings. I don't see any scenario in which the Sox can trade him. The guy plays a premium position and is a great hitter with a great plate approach. I can see him being a Dustin Pedroia type 2 years from now.

[win red sox]

1) Make a QO to Ellsbury, Drew, and Salty knowing they wouldn't accept.

 

2) Let go of Napoli

 

3) Sign Beltran 2/30 and McCann 4/60 with 5th year vesting option based on PA's

 

4) Try to pry Matt Adams from ST Louis

 

5) Trade 2 out of Dempster, Lackey, and Lester.

 

RF Victorino

2b Pedroia

DH Ortiz

LF Betran

C McCann

SS XB

1b Adams

3b Middlebrooks

CF Bradley

 

1b/Lf/Rf Nava

SS/3b/2b Holt

Lf Gomes

C Ross

 

 

Buccholz

Doubront

Peavy

Lester/Dempster/Lackey

Workman/Webster/Ranaudo

 

Koji

Tazawa

Miller

Britton

Breslow

RDLR

Workman/Wilson

[rjortiz]

A QO to Salty and Drew would be worth about $14 million. I think Salty would be safe to decline an offer, but I doubt Drew would.

[dupree]

I dont think that Brain McCann will leave ATL, if they go far into the postseason.

 

Id like if the Sox resigned Salty and had Lav or Ross to split time with just like this year. Id rather allocate the money this next offseason to pitching. And maybe a LF bat. Beltran is an interesting choice and maybe a 2 yr deal will get it done. If not id llike to see JBJ out there along with Ells and Vic next year. The defense would be awesome in the outfield, but i would like a power bat in LF if JBJ got traded for pitching i would be too sad over that. I think it would be a big mistake to let Ells walk JBJ has talent but nowhere near what Ells can do all the way around.

[Station 13]

A QO to Salty and Drew would be worth about $14 million. I think Salty would be safe to decline an offer, but I doubt Drew would.

 

Drew will turn it down. He is having a good season, and the top SS free agent. He will get 2+ year from someone, perhaps the MFY. Don't forget his agent is Scott Boras. MFY offer him $12M last off-season, but he chose to come to Boston.

Edited August 12, 2013 by Station 13

[win red sox]

A QO to Salty and Drew would be worth about $14 million. I think Salty would be safe to decline an offer, but I doubt Drew would.

 

Drew is top 10 in fwar for ss in only 86 games, im pretty sure he will be able to snag a 3 year deal. Plus there's the Scott Boras factor.

[SCM33]

Let salty walk.

 

There are plenty of other catchers out there who cant catch, throw, run, hit or hit for power.

[Lord Snow]

Let salty walk.

 

There are plenty of other catchers out there who cant catch, throw, run, hit or hit for power.

 

I totally disagree. Salty's defense is a bit lacking, but it's passable. In general, you don't lose games because your catcher can't throw out 40% of would-be base stealers. Catcher is a weak position defensively throughout baseball, its what makes it such a premium position. There are a very select few who are good hitters and good defenders, it's usually one of the other. Salty is a somewhere in between, he calls a good game, is below average defensively, and above average offensively.

 

I think Salty is a great fit in the Red Sox clubhouse, and from what I can tell he handles the pitching staff well. Don't forget how onerous catcher transitions can be, it took Salty a full year to call a good game and for the pitchers to get used to him.

 

Furthermore, Salty has the 4th best OPS in baseball of catchers with at least 300 ABs at .779. He's not elite by any standards, but he's above average for a catcher. He's 4th in doubles at his position, and 6th in home runs. So I don't know how you can say he can't "hit or hit for power". By any measure he is one the better hitting catchers and has been for the last few years.

 

I've gotten used to Salty, his pace and his defense were tough to take at first, but as the pitchers adapted to him I became more comfortable with him too. I'd be pleased if the Sox sign him for 3-4 years. We know he can handle Boston which is another good aspect of Salty's character and an aspect of his game that should not be overlooked.

 

Somebody like McCann may appear to be a better option but can he handle the pressure cooker environment that comes with signing a rich deal and playing in Boston? Can he handle the AL? The AL East?

[Bellhorn04]

Let salty walk.

 

There are plenty of other catchers out there who cant catch, throw, run, hit or hit for power.

 

The numbers are not on your side.

[sk7326]

I totally disagree. Salty's defense is a bit lacking, but it's passable. In general, you don't lose games because your catcher can't throw out 40% of would-be base stealers. Catcher is a weak position defensively throughout baseball, its what makes it such a premium position. There are a very select few who are good hitters and good defenders, it's usually one of the other. Salty is a somewhere in between, he calls a good game, is below average defensively, and above average offensively.

 

I think Salty is a great fit in the Red Sox clubhouse, and from what I can tell he handles the pitching staff well. Don't forget how onerous catcher transitions can be, it took Salty a full year to call a good game and for the pitchers to get used to him.

 

Furthermore, Salty has the 4th best OPS in baseball of catchers with at least 300 ABs at .779. He's not elite by any standards, but he's above average for a catcher. He's 4th in doubles at his position, and 6th in home runs. So I don't know how you can say he can't "hit or hit for power". By any measure he is one the better hitting catchers and has been for the last few years.

 

I've gotten used to Salty, his pace and his defense were tough to take at first, but as the pitchers adapted to him I became more comfortable with him too. I'd be pleased if the Sox sign him for 3-4 years. We know he can handle Boston which is another good aspect of Salty's character and an aspect of his game that should not be overlooked.

 

Somebody like McCann may appear to be a better option but can he handle the pressure cooker environment that comes with signing a rich deal and playing in Boston? Can he handle the AL? The AL East?

 

Can McCann stay healthy? A guy his age and with the miles - can he make 100 starts? Salty has his flaws - a switchhitter who really adds no value right handed - but given the rock bottom replacement level for catchers - he is quite good. Get him a right handed caddy (which Lavarnway has shown he is not) and the combination can be very helpful. I like Lavarnway as a hitter - but last 2 years he has shown that catching is too hard a job for him to be able to do it AND rake like he had shown before 2012.

[a700hitter]

I hear you. This thread is purely for shooting the breeze purposes.

I'll be sure to join at some point--probably after our last game.

[jung]

I have been as critical of Salty as it gets and even I would not let Salty go at this point. I am not going to try to make a case for Salty's rather modest improvements behind the plate. I remain unimpressed there. But he has matured his way into a decent catcher as catchers go these days.

 

More importantly at least to me, if the Sox pitchers are going to ignore runners to the degree that they do now, I don't care who is catching...no shot at throwing guys out...it's not going to happen....not with the jumps runners are getting on your pitchers. The guy has basically got to be slow as molasses or slip taking his first step or fall down on the way to the base to get caught at this point.

[redsoxfan3]

Free agents for the Red Sox for 2014:

 

Ellsbury- he will hit the open market, but I think we need to go hard after him. If we cannot resign him, we do have Bradley who is in the minors and Victorino can also play CF, but we would lose a great leadoff hitter. We need to resign Ellsbury.

 

Lester- he has a 13M team option for 2014. His performance the remainder of this season and in the postseason should dictate whether his option gets picked up. I am hoping for a Lester turnaround, but if he plays like s***, it will be hard to pick up the option. This one is up in the air for now.

 

Drew- I think this solely depends on how the team feels about Bogaerts. Drew has came up with some big hits for us and has played pretty good. If Middlebrooks proves to make a solid comeback and Bogaerts proves to be ready, then I think the only option is to let Drew walk so that we do not block Bogaerts. There is always the possibility that Bogaerts is not ready and that he needs more time to develop. We may be able to get a better look come September call-ups. There is no doubt in my mind that I am ready for a Middlebrooks and Bogaerts left side of the infield, but only if it means that Xander is ready. I would be fine with resigning Drew, however, only if that means he is not going to be blocking Xander.

 

Thorton- he has a 6M team option. It probably depends on when Miller can comeback. Breslow, Morales, and Britton are also LH in the pen. So we could have five lefties that could potentially be in the pen if we pick up his option.

 

Hanrahan- we need to let him walk. He had a disappointing year that came to an end with an injury. With Uehara doing as good as he has as a closer, there is no need to sign Hanrahan (unless the team feels the need for a potential set-up role). I would be down for a minor league contract and an invite to Spring Training, but that is probably not going to happen if he proves he is healthy. Another team would probably take a chance on him.

 

Napoli- he is ranked as the top FA 1B. I know it has been rough to watch him strikeout a lot, but he still does have 14 HR's and 67 RBI's on the year. If there is not a better alternative, then I think we need to sign him to another contract. This Abreu guy from Cuba is also another interesting story to keep an eye on.

 

Salty- this is tough. Salty has had some defensive moments where you just wonder what in the hell he was thinking. I am down for signing Salty to another contract, but I would be okay with bringing McCann to Boston and have him team up with David Ross again. Not to mention if McCann or Ross gets hurt, we do have Lavarnway and Butler who will be in Pawtucket to be able to get called up.

 

Who we need to sign:

Ellsbury

 

Still up in the air:

Lester

Salty

Drew

Napoli

Thorton

 

Who we can live without:

Hanrahan

 

Who we should try to sign in the FA market:

McCann (if we choose to not resign Salty)

Abreu (if he is eligible to be a FA this offseason and we feel he is an upgrade over Napoli)

Garza, Kuroda, or Santana (in that order, if we do not pick up Lester's option)

 

Only do not resign Drew, if Bogaerts is ready. Obviously look at other OF options if we cannot resign Ells and explore in-house options with Bradley. We do have in-house options to replace Thorton, but it is tough to tell with Morales and Miller's injury history and Britton still being young.

[Lord Snow]

Free agents for the Red Sox for 2014:

 

Ellsbury- he will hit the open market, but I think we need to go hard after him. If we cannot resign him, we do have Bradley who is in the minors and Victorino can also play CF, but we would lose a great leadoff hitter. We need to resign Ellsbury.

 

Lester- he has a 13M team option for 2014. His performance the remainder of this season and in the postseason should dictate whether his option gets picked up. I am hoping for a Lester turnaround, but if he plays like s***, it will be hard to pick up the option. This one is up in the air for now.

 

Drew- I think this solely depends on how the team feels about Bogaerts. Drew has came up with some big hits for us and has played pretty good. If Middlebrooks proves to make a solid comeback and Bogaerts proves to be ready, then I think the only option is to let Drew walk so that we do not block Bogaerts. There is always the possibility that Bogaerts is not ready and that he needs more time to develop. We may be able to get a better look come September call-ups. There is no doubt in my mind that I am ready for a Middlebrooks and Bogaerts left side of the infield, but only if it means that Xander is ready. I would be fine with resigning Drew, however, only if that means he is not going to be blocking Xander.

 

Thorton- he has a 6M team option. It probably depends on when Miller can comeback. Breslow, Morales, and Britton are also LH in the pen. So we could have five lefties that could potentially be in the pen if we pick up his option.

 

Hanrahan- we need to let him walk. He had a disappointing year that came to an end with an injury. With Uehara doing as good as he has as a closer, there is no need to sign Hanrahan (unless the team feels the need for a potential set-up role). I would be down for a minor league contract and an invite to Spring Training, but that is probably not going to happen if he proves he is healthy. Another team would probably take a chance on him.

 

Napoli- he is ranked as the top FA 1B. I know it has been rough to watch him strikeout a lot, but he still does have 14 HR's and 67 RBI's on the year. If there is not a better alternative, then I think we need to sign him to another contract. This Abreu guy from Cuba is also another interesting story to keep an eye on.

 

Salty- this is tough. Salty has had some defensive moments where you just wonder what in the hell he was thinking. I am down for signing Salty to another contract, but I would be okay with bringing McCann to Boston and have him team up with David Ross again. Not to mention if McCann or Ross gets hurt, we do have Lavarnway and Butler who will be in Pawtucket to be able to get called up.

 

Who we need to sign:

Ellsbury

 

Still up in the air:

Lester

Salty

Drew

Napoli

Thorton

 

Who we can live without:

Hanrahan

 

Who we should try to sign in the FA market:

McCann (if we choose to not resign Salty)

Abreu (if he is eligible to be a FA this offseason and we feel he is an upgrade over Napoli)

Garza, Kuroda, or Santana (in that order, if we do not pick up Lester's option)

 

Only do not resign Drew, if Bogaerts is ready. Obviously look at other OF options if we cannot resign Ells and explore in-house options with Bradley. We do have in-house options to replace Thorton, but it is tough to tell with Morales and Miller's injury history and Britton still being young.

 

I agree about Abreu. What I've read about him, albeit it hasn't been much, he seems like a worthwhile investment. $60M to a more established 26-year-old Cuban "prospect" can prove a better investment than $60M to a 31-year-old major leaguer.

 

I also prefer Kendrys Morales to Napoli at 1B. Morales has much more upside, is younger, and doesn't have that degenerative hip condition. And he's putting together a pretty strong season in Seattle of all places, slot him in Fenway and his SLG probably goes up 50 points.

[Dojji]

Drew will turn it down. He is having a good season, and the top SS free agent. He will get 2+ year from someone, perhaps the MFY. Don't forget his agent is Scott Boras. MFY offer him $12M last off-season, but he chose to come to Boston.

 

I'd be game to give Drew another 3 years right here in Boston. He's good at what he does. I don't throw away players who are good at what they do because of a prospect, especially if that prospect can play another position that's a known sore spot.

 

If Bogaerts beats out a very good major league shortstop for the SS job, and 3B is somehow fixed, Drew's still good and everyone knows it, some team anxious about their own issues at short will make a deal for him. And since Drew's good for some downtime, Bogaerts ought to be able to showcase his stuff at short a few times next year even if #7 is here. There's very little to lose by extending Stephen Drew.

[sk7326]

I'd be game to give Drew another 3 years right here in Boston. He's good at what he does. I don't throw away players who are good at what they do because of a prospect, especially if that prospect can play another position that's a known sore spot.

 

If Bogaerts beats out a very good major league shortstop for the SS job, and 3B is somehow fixed, Drew's still good and everyone knows it, some team anxious about their own issues at short will make a deal for him. And since Drew's good for some downtime, Bogaerts ought to be able to showcase his stuff at short a few times next year even if #7 is here. There's very little to lose by extending Stephen Drew.

 

Extending Drew is a good move. That said, this was clearly a 2010 Beltre-sort of marriage here. Drew had to rebuild his good name again and the Red Sox needed a SS. If a team looks at Drew and sees a 3/$35-40 sort of player, I'd have a hard time going there. I do think the market for Drew will be very competitive given how god awful the position is around the majors - there is some very exciting SS on the way, but Drew is an upgrade for a lot of teams.

[Dojji]

I'm sure that's true, but if he's looking to build his value and then go to the open market to get an extension, why not be the team to give him one? Especially with the advantage of that exclusive negotiating window. We're a team that's very capable of rewarding a quality player properly, and Drew knows that. I doubt he'd turn down a contract from Boston just because, and he's the sort of player that's worth matching a the market for.

 

I'm happy with his performance, so are most of us. Keep him around. There will be plenty of opportunities to work Bogaerts in around him, especially if Middlebrooks continues to scuffle. There's no reason to lean exclusively on Bogaerts to be our starting SS next year sight unseen, when a professional high level shortstop is right there to be had.

 

The best prospect development is the kind that forces the youngster to beat an established average or better professional. Drew is a fine benchmark to measure Bogaerts against, and if Bogaerts beats him fair and square? you can dangle Drew for a good return on the open market. I'm sure you'll find someone desperate to upgrade at short, it's a really hard position to find solid talent for (all the more reason to hold onto Drew).

 

I'd have no problem giving Drew 3/45. For a shortstop who's above average on both sides of the ball, that's a good value. He might get more than that, but I'd have no problem starting there.

Edited August 12, 2013 by Dojji

[Spitball]

I believe the Sox will let Drew walk without a qualifying order. This is a new era in Boston and things will be done differently. They won't sink big dollars into a multi-year contract for a player who can be replaced by a top prospect.

 

Xavier Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley are cheap, young, talented, and under team control for several more years. They are the future. Drew and Ellsbury will be expensive and in the Red Sox rear-view windows.

[Lord Snow]

Half of the people on this board have a woody for Stephen Drew and are putting him on a pedestal. WHY?

 

.255/.340/.441/.781 and people want this locked in for 3-4 years? WHAT?!

 

Drew would probably accept a qualifying offer because the best he can hope to is a 1-3 year deal and $20M guaranteed, max.

 

We've got Xander Bogaerts breathing down his neck, and all indications are that he is going to be a great player. Pedroia has 2B. Middlebrooks or Cecchini will get 3B. There is no spot on this team for Drew.

Edited August 12, 2013 by Lord Snow

[Palodios]

Half of the people on this board have a woody for Stephen Drew and are putting him on a pedestal. WHY?

 

.255/.340/.441/.781 and people want this locked in for 3-4 years? WHAT?!

 

Drew would probably accept a qualifying offer because the best he can hope to is a 1-3 year deal and $20M guaranteed, max.

 

We've got Xander Bogaerts breathing down his neck, and all indications are that he is going to be a great player. Pedroia has 2B. Middlebrooks or Cecchini will get 3B. There is no spot on this team for Drew.

 

These are the top 5 OPS values among shortstops with 300+ PA

 

1) Tulo .943

2) Peralta .822 (suspended for PEDs)

3) Segura .808

4) Desmond .804

5) Stephen Drew .781

 

I don't think you understand how few shortstops have solid offense.

[Station 13]

2014 SS FA

 

Alfredo Amezaga (36)

Clint Barmes (35)

Yuniesky Betancourt (32)

Willie Bloomquist (36)

Jamey Carroll (40) - $2MM vesting option with a $250K buyout

Alexi Casilla (29)

Stephen Drew (31)

Yunel Escobar (31) - $5MM club option

Rafael Furcal (36)

Alex Gonzalez (36)

Cesar Izturis (34)

Derek Jeter (40) - $8MM+ player option with a $3MM buyout

John McDonald (39)

Jhonny Peralta (32)

Brendan Ryan (32)

 

Drew is the best of that group. He'll get 2-3 year from someone, most likely the Yankees. A QO gets the Sox a draft pick.

[Lord Snow]

These are the top 5 OPS values among shortstops with 300+ PA

 

1) Tulo .943

2) Peralta .822 (suspended for PEDs)

3) Segura .808

4) Desmond .804

5) Stephen Drew .781

 

I don't think you understand how few shortstops have solid offense.

 

I certainly do. But the Red Sox have Xander Bogaerts a heartbeat away, all indications are that he should be worth at least a .780 OPS, and hopefully much better. Why anybody wants to sign up Drew beyond 2013 defies logic. There is simply no need.

 

You used a similar argument that I used for Salty. The difference is the Red Sox don't have a top 10 prospect who plays catcher with half a season at AAA under his belt.

[lospunchados]

 

Drew would probably accept a qualifying offer because the best he can hope to is a 1-3 year deal and $20M guaranteed, max.

 

 

He might accept a qualifying offer but 20 million guaranteed is the minimum he will make. He had two terrible years before he signed with us and we still payed 9.5 million for him.

[SCM33]

I totally disagree. Salty's defense is a bit lacking, but it's passable. In general, you don't lose games because your catcher can't throw out 40% of would-be base stealers. Catcher is a weak position defensively throughout baseball, its what makes it such a premium position. There are a very select few who are good hitters and good defenders, it's usually one of the other. Salty is a somewhere in between, he calls a good game, is below average defensively, and above average offensively.

 

I think Salty is a great fit in the Red Sox clubhouse, and from what I can tell he handles the pitching staff well. Don't forget how onerous catcher transitions can be, it took Salty a full year to call a good game and for the pitchers to get used to him.

 

Furthermore, Salty has the 4th best OPS in baseball of catchers with at least 300 ABs at .779. He's not elite by any standards, but he's above average for a catcher. He's 4th in doubles at his position, and 6th in home runs. So I don't know how you can say he can't "hit or hit for power". By any measure he is one the better hitting catchers and has been for the last few years.

 

I've gotten used to Salty, his pace and his defense were tough to take at first, but as the pitchers adapted to him I became more comfortable with him too. I'd be pleased if the Sox sign him for 3-4 years. We know he can handle Boston which is another good aspect of Salty's character and an aspect of his game that should not be overlooked.

 

Somebody like McCann may appear to be a better option but can he handle the pressure cooker environment that comes with signing a rich deal and playing in Boston? Can he handle the AL? The AL East?

 

The numbers are not on your side.

 

He is still Salty......he is playing above his talent level this year. Hes been pretty good, but he is not worth a 3 year extension, and hes NOWHERE near being a 15M a year player as someone suggested earlier. Let him walk, get a real defensive catcher and replace the offense somewhere else.