Ellsbury is en fuego!

[sk7326]

For all the Ellsbury doubters out there. Lou Brock in 1974 at age 35 had his most productive season for Stolen Bases at 118. His Second best was 74 in 1966 at the age of 27. In 1975 & 1976 at the age of 36 & 37 respectively Brock stole 56 bases. Brock had some huge numbers but his CS numbers were fairly high compared to Ellsbury.

Brock's biggest season for HR's was 21 at the age of 27. He only hit 3 with his 118 SB's in 1974. As a Sox fan I am not overly concerned about Ellsbury slowing down over the next 5 seasons. Ellsbury is also a young 30 as he has a late birthday of September 11. So maybe a 6-7 year contract for Ells is not unrealistic maybe at 18m per.

 

Ellsbury does not have to repeat his 2011 season to justify a long term contract ... he can produce 80% of his 2011 numbers and he will not be a disappointment.

 

If he repeated his 2013 numbers over the next 6 years, it would justify the contract - the resume is fairly thin for producing 2011/2013 level horsepower. The stolen base numbers are interesting but not that important (Ellsbury's 2013 is better than virtually any Lou Brock season, SBs or not). For me the question is whether he can play a good CF for the next 5 years, and if he can hit enough to carry a corner position if he can't. Odds are against him on both - but I'm a fan. Rickey Henderson held his value into old age - but he was an extraordinary hitter, just a different level of offensive force (and that is not at all a dig against Ellsbury).

[Spitball]

If he repeated his 2013 numbers over the next 6 years, it would justify the contract - the resume is fairly thin for producing 2011/2013 level horsepower. The stolen base numbers are interesting but not that important (Ellsbury's 2013 is better than virtually any Lou Brock season, SBs or not). For me the question is whether he can play a good CF for the next 5 years, and if he can hit enough to carry a corner position if he can't. Odds are against him on both - but I'm a fan. Rickey Henderson held his value into old age - but he was an extraordinary hitter, just a different level of offensive force (and that is not at all a dig against Ellsbury).

 

Lou Brock and Ricky Henderson played left field and not center field. That is significant to their long term successes. Center field takes a lot out of a player's legs. Fred Lynn and Eric Davis were two of the most gifted athletes I have ever witnessed. Both broke down from injuries due to playing center field.

[marklmw]

Lou Brock and Ricky Henderson played left field and not center field. That is significant to their long term successes. Center field takes a lot out of a player's legs. Fred Lynn and Eric Davis were two of the most gifted athletes I have ever witnessed. Both broke down from injuries due to playing center field.

 

If Sox re-up Ellsbury they have options ... JBJ can take over center in 2016 and move Ellsbury to left. I really do not think we have seen Ellsbury's best power numbers yet. Move him down to the 3 spot 3 years from now and he will explode.

[Spitball]

I doubt the Sox are serious players for Ellsbury this winter. They have Victorino and Gomes signed through next year. Jackie Bradley, Jr. is the center fielder for the next several years. The Sox will make Ells a qualifying offer, and that might give them a chance at resigning him.

[sk7326]

Lou Brock and Ricky Henderson played left field and not center field. That is significant to their long term successes. Center field takes a lot out of a player's legs. Fred Lynn and Eric Davis were two of the most gifted athletes I have ever witnessed. Both broke down from injuries due to playing center field.

 

Oh, LF matters a ton - that's why Brock is VERY overrated historically (his numbers make a possible HoF CF, but not at all the case as a full time LF) ... Henderson playing LF is what holds him back from the very top of "greatest ever" lists (though he is on any credible Top 15 list or so). But Henderson's greatness on offense more than held up for his position, year after year. Ellsbury is a good on base guy at his best - but not hitting the >.400 mark regularly. I don't bash his power numbers, you'd see that Rickey's numbers were all over the map homerunwise as well.

 

But Rickey's production is the sort of thing Ellsbury has to boost his game to if he expects to maintain an all-star-ish level of production when he moves to a corner position.

[marklmw]

I doubt the Sox are serious players for Ellsbury this winter. They have Victorino and Gomes signed through next year. Jackie Bradley, Jr. is the center fielder for the next several years. The Sox will make Ells a qualifying offer, and that might give them a chance at resigning him.

 

 

JBJ is not ready to be the starting center fielder for the Boston Red Sox. I doubt that is going to change much 7 months from now.

[SoxFanForsyth]

JBJ is not ready to be the starting center fielder for the Boston Red Sox. I doubt that is going to change much 7 months from now.

 

JBJ in AAA: .278/.379/.498, .877 OPS, 143 wRC+

 

Ellsbury in MLB: .305/.366/.440, .806 OPS, 118 wRC+

 

Not sure how you can conclude that JBJ isn't ready. You're going to have growing pains with every rookie, sure, but that doesn't mean he's not ready. He's an OBP machine that can hit for at least a little power, and he's already a 70 (on 20-80 scale) defensively.

[sk7326]

Here is the thing with JBJ to remember - this year he was the product of a great spring and a job opening. I also suspect the ever so-WEEI conscious ownership was pushing the angle a touch. But he had only like 61 ABs above AA or something. He is advanced because he had a college career so less to teach early, but he is not oozing experience. He needed the year on the farm anyway - or just reps generally.

 

His approach is very very advanced - this will allow him to be a .240 hitter and not kill us. Indeed with the glove it makes him a solid CF with several years of growth ahead of him. I am in on him no doubt.

[SCM33]

For all the Ellsbury doubters out there. Lou Brock in 1974 at age 35 had his most productive season for Stolen Bases at 118. His Second best was 74 in 1966 at the age of 27. In 1975 & 1976 at the age of 36 & 37 respectively Brock stole 56 bases. Brock had some huge numbers but his CS numbers were fairly high compared to Ellsbury.

Brock's biggest season for HR's was 21 at the age of 27. He only hit 3 with his 118 SB's in 1974. As a Sox fan I am not overly concerned about Ellsbury slowing down over the next 5 seasons. Ellsbury is also a young 30 as he has a late birthday of September 11. So maybe a 6-7 year contract for Ells is not unrealistic maybe at 18m per.

 

Ellsbury does not have to repeat his 2011 season to justify a long term contract ... he can produce 80% of his 2011 numbers and he will not be a disappointment.

 

What does Lou Brock have to do with a 100M dollar contract?

[sk7326]

BTW, "80% of his 2011 numbers" means a fWAR of 7.3 wins. In the entire majors, there were eight 7-win players last season, and two CFs (Trout and McCutchen). Can Ellsbury crank out five seasons of Andrew McCutchen (or Ryan Braun if he moves to a corner, without the suspension of course)? Good luck there. I'd be pleased but it'd be hard.

[marklmw]

BTW, "80% of his 2011 numbers" means a fWAR of 7.3 wins. In the entire majors, there were eight 7-win players last season, and two CFs (Trout and McCutchen). Can Ellsbury crank out five seasons of Andrew McCutchen (or Ryan Braun if he moves to a corner, without the suspension of course)? Good luck there. I'd be pleased but it'd be hard.

 

I am not sure that 80% of his numbers would = 80% of his fWAR. My point is that Ellsbury has a very high ceiling that few players are capable of reaching. I think that if he was moved to left, he would have more legs, more strength throughout the season and thus steel more bases, and hit more HR's. Maybe Bradley Jr. is ready to play center ... you make a good point based on his numbers. He can bat in the 9 spot. Give Ellsbury 6 years at 110M with club option for 7th year and good things will happen. Ellsbury might be the greatest all around athlete the Sox have had in 40 years.

[marklmw]

An outfield of Ellsbury, Bradley, and Victorino would be a very good defensive outfield. If the Sox can fix, 1st & 3rd base for next season then we can certainly afford a light hitting CF in the 240 - 250 range. The left side can be Drew, Bogaerts or Bogaerts, Middlebrooks. I think that James Loney should be considered for 1b. He is only making 2m now and acquiring him will improve the Sox and harm TB.

 

Sox have another great 3B prospect at AA in Garin Cecchini, 3B, Red Sox: Age 22, just replaced the injured Joey Gallo on the roster, drafted in the fourth round in 2010 from high school in Lake Charles, Louisiana. Line drive hitter with superb plate discipline and moderate power, hitting .358/.475/.545 this year between High-A and Double-A. Combination of high walk rate with relatively few strikeouts stands out.

 

Maybe Bogaerts, Cecchini with Middlebrooks at 1B. Lots of options. I am not concerned about scoring runs next season as I am about enhancing our rotation and bullpen ... which I think we have a lot of talent in our farm system for this fix also.

[jung]

An outfield of Ellsbury, Bradley, and Victorino would be a very good defensive outfield. If the Sox can fix, 1st & 3rd base for next season then we can certainly afford a light hitting CF in the 240 - 250 range. The left side can be Drew, Bogaerts or Bogaerts, Middlebrooks. I think that James Loney should be considered for 1b. He is only making 2m now and acquiring him will improve the Sox and harm TB.

 

Sox have another great 3B prospect at AA in Garin Cecchini, 3B, Red Sox: Age 22, just replaced the injured Joey Gallo on the roster, drafted in the fourth round in 2010 from high school in Lake Charles, Louisiana. Line drive hitter with superb plate discipline and moderate power, hitting .358/.475/.545 this year between High-A and Double-A. Combination of high walk rate with relatively few strikeouts stands out.

 

Maybe Bogaerts, Cecchini with Middlebrooks at 1B. Lots of options. I am not concerned about scoring runs next season as I am about enhancing our rotation and bullpen ... which I think we have a lot of talent in our farm system for this fix also.

 

Well regarding the OF if you are going left to right in the OF, forget it. Ells is not moving to LF and Boras is not going to let him move to LF. As long as Boras can sell him as a CF, he is going to do it cause there is more money there. On top of that, Boras will likely sell Ell's PR value and general movie star looks as a means to put fannies in seats, even if they are rounder fannies than what you might find on the typical baseball fan.

 

In my view, Boras is going to take Ells to a place that the Sox will be unwilling to go. I think the Sox will at best be willing to pay for every ounce of performance that they can project Ells can give them but will not pay a penny for PR appeal etc etc. I think that era is finally over at Fenway. However there are many places where Ells PR appeal does have value and organizations would be willing to pay for it. I am totally convinced that the Sox will make Ells an offer and just about totally convinced that they will not engage in the kind of bidding war for him that Boras is sure to force.

 

The Sox are surely willing to pay for this "club house good guy thing" that they are about lately but only with short term contracts at money that only gets big because the contract is short. The Sox are not going to go for long term, long dollars for Ells or anybody else especially if PR appeal dollars are involved.

[marklmw]

Well regarding the OF if you are going left to right in the OF, forget it. Ells is not moving to LF and Boras is not going to let him move to LF. As long as Boras can sell him as a CF, he is going to do it cause there is more money there. On top of that, Boras will likely sell Ell's PR value and general movie star looks as a means to put fannies in seats, even if they are rounder fannies than what you might find on the typical baseball fan.

 

 

In my view, Boras is going to take Ells to a place that the Sox will be unwilling to go. I think the Sox will at best be willing to pay for every ounce of performance that they can project Ells can give them but will not pay a penny for PR appeal etc etc. I think that era is finally over at Fenway. However there are many places where Ells PR appeal does have value and organizations would be willing to pay for it. I am totally convinced that the Sox will make Ells an offer and just about totally convinced that they will not engage in the kind of bidding war for him that Boras is sure to force.

 

The Sox are surely willing to pay for this "club house good guy thing" that they are about lately but only with short term contracts at money that only gets big because the contract is short. The Sox are not going to go for long term, long dollars for Ells or anybody else especially if PR appeal dollars are involved.

 

I have to disagree with your logic. After Ellsbury signs a 5-6 year deal, the team he signs with can play him wherever they wish. He already has his money. If he is fortunate enough to be moved to left field it only extends his playing career which would be a good thing for him.

[jung]

I have to disagree with your logic. After Ellsbury signs a 5-6 year deal, the team he signs with can play him wherever they wish. He already has his money. If he is fortunate enough to be moved to left field it only extends his playing career which would be a good thing for him.

 

The point is that Boras will make sure that Ells gets paid as a CF and the Sox are not going to pay him CF money intending to move him to LF. In this particular case it does not matter which is the chicken or the egg, at the end of the day, you still get a chicken.

 

Boras is going to extract the max dollars out of the deal and will convince Ells that he should be promoted as a CF. Sure Boras will let the cards fall where they may once he has the money but up until then Ells will be "sold" as a CF. In negotiation if a team says we won't pay CF money because we intend moving Ells to LF right now Boras will simply say, we will not take LF money. You can do what you want after you have paid for him but we want CF money.

 

As a negotiation I can see Boras willing to accept a sliding scale that suggests that Ells moves later in the contract but don't expect Boras to accept money based on Ells moving immediately to LF. Conversely, don't expect a team to pay CF money intending to immediately move Ells to LF. This is a fantasy.

Edited August 13, 2013 by jung

[sk7326]

I have to disagree with your logic. After Ellsbury signs a 5-6 year deal, the team he signs with can play him wherever they wish. He already has his money. If he is fortunate enough to be moved to left field it only extends his playing career which would be a good thing for him.

 

Boras ... is a GREAT agent. He will not sell Ellsbury as anything less than a full time All-Star CF. A team's analysis (assuming the Red Sox are one of them) might be more skeptical - that he is a LF in waiting whose best traits tend to age quickly. The good news for Jacoby is that all you need is two bidders who believe Boras' version - and there almost certainly will be. If the Angels could backload a 5 year deal for a former MVP with a much more serious injury history than Ellsbury with a very "old" body, somebody will be entranced by what Boras has to offer. Given the tendencies of this baseball operations department - the Red Sox will most likely not be one of them ... UNLESS ownership steps in, which I never dismiss.

[marklmw]

The point is that Boras will make sure that Ells gets paid as a CF and the Sox are not going to pay him CF money intending to move him to LF. In this particular case it does not matter which is the chicken or the egg, at the end of the day, you still get a chicken.

 

Boras is going to extract the max dollars out of the deal and will convince Ells that he should be promoted as a CF. Sure Boras will let the cards fall where they may once he has the money but up until then Ells will be "sold" as a CF. In negotiation if a team says we won't pay CF money because we intend moving Ells to LF right now Boras will simply say, we will not take LF money. You can do what you want after you have paid for him but we want CF money.

 

As a negotiation I can see Boras willing to accept a sliding scale that suggests that Ells moves later in the contract but don't expect Boras to accept money based on Ells moving immediately to LF. Conversely, don't expect a team to pay CF money intending to immediately move Ells to LF. This is a fantasy.

 

I have to respectfully disagree. When you look at Ellsbury's numbers this year and in 2011 you are not looking at the fact that he plays Center Field. If he were playing left field now you would still be judging his net worth by his offensive numbers would you not? Why shouldn't Boston pay Ellsbury 110m/6 if he the best lead off hitter in baseball. (Trout has been hitting 2nd & 3rd as of late), Carl Crawford is making 20m+ per playing left field and he is not in Ellsbury's league. Sox have lots of options by keeping Ellsbury, giving JBJ another year of seasoning in Pawtucket, or just having Ellsbury around to play center if there is an injury to JBJ or giving JBJ a night off. Sox paid 20m for Dice K over 5 years and the organization is still alive and well. This is nonsense not to keep Ellsbury. With a lot of rookies coming up over the next 3-4 years and shedding some of the waste next season paying Ellsbury 20m per is only 10m more than they pay him now. Another way of looking at it is this .... are you going to let a home grown product like Ellsbury go someplace else over 2 or 3 million per season if you only value him as a 17 or 18m per kind of guy? Ellsbury is 29 right now ... he is in his prime due to the time missed being injured.

[sk7326]

I have to respectfully disagree. When you look at Ellsbury's numbers this year and in 2011 you are not looking at the fact that he plays Center Field. If he were playing left field now you would still be judging his net worth by his offensive numbers would you not? Why shouldn't Boston pay Ellsbury 110m/6 if he the best lead off hitter in baseball. (Trout has been hitting 2nd & 3rd as of late), Carl Crawford is making 20m+ per playing left field and he is not in Ellsbury's league. Sox have lots of options by keeping Ellsbury, giving JBJ another year of seasoning in Pawtucket, or just having Ellsbury around to play center if there is an injury to JBJ or giving JBJ a night off. Sox paid 20m for Dice K over 5 years and the organization is still alive and well. This is nonsense not to keep Ellsbury. With a lot of rookies coming up over the next 3-4 years and shedding some of the waste next season paying Ellsbury 20m per is only 10m more than they pay him now. Another way of looking at it is this .... are you going to let a home grown product like Ellsbury go someplace else over 2 or 3 million per season if you only value him as a 17 or 18m per kind of guy? Ellsbury is 29 right now ... he is in his prime due to the time missed being injured.

 

He moves to LF, his fringy .800 OPS-ness puts him in a cohort with Giancarlo Stanton or Ryan Braun's statistics ... that is a different group than as a CF. His numbers have to be examined in context with being an acceptable CF, and more credit for being a good one. He will be 30 when he enters the market - and with so much of his value in his legs, how much peak vs decline would you be buying over the next 6 years REALLY.

[marklmw]

He moves to LF, his fringy .800 OPS-ness puts him in a cohort with Giancarlo Stanton or Ryan Braun's statistics ... that is a different group than as a CF. His numbers have to be examined in context with being an acceptable CF, and more credit for being a good one. He will be 30 when he enters the market - and with so much of his value in his legs, how much peak vs decline would you be buying over the next 6 years REALLY.

Are you talking about Ryan Braun who has been using PED's and will not be using them again, or Giancarlo Stanton who is batting .230 something. Jacoby has 42 - SB's with only 4 - CS's. He also can be counted on to hit .290 to .310 with OBS of .360+ Also, take a look at the stats of well known speedsters and you will find that they had some pretty good numbers between ages 30 & 36. Jacoby could easily add to his OPS if he was not playing center field. Hell, he may even add to his SB numbers. I am amazed that Sox fans feel this way about Ellsbury.

[jung]

I have to respectfully disagree. When you look at Ellsbury's numbers this year and in 2011 you are not looking at the fact that he plays Center Field. If he were playing left field now you would still be judging his net worth by his offensive numbers would you not? Why shouldn't Boston pay Ellsbury 110m/6 if he the best lead off hitter in baseball. (Trout has been hitting 2nd & 3rd as of late), Carl Crawford is making 20m+ per playing left field and he is not in Ellsbury's league. Sox have lots of options by keeping Ellsbury, giving JBJ another year of seasoning in Pawtucket, or just having Ellsbury around to play center if there is an injury to JBJ or giving JBJ a night off. Sox paid 20m for Dice K over 5 years and the organization is still alive and well. This is nonsense not to keep Ellsbury. With a lot of rookies coming up over the next 3-4 years and shedding some of the waste next season paying Ellsbury 20m per is only 10m more than they pay him now. Another way of looking at it is this .... are you going to let a home grown product like Ellsbury go someplace else over 2 or 3 million per season if you only value him as a 17 or 18m per kind of guy? Ellsbury is 29 right now ... he is in his prime due to the time missed being injured.

 

First you have to remember that the LT cap situation has completely changed and the penalties are so great now that even the Yankees have to take notice. Only teams like the Dodgers, trying to change their image in LA and with a brand new TV contract rated as one of the top two most lucrative in all baseball can afford to temporarily ignore the new penalties.

 

Boras is going to run this negotiation the way he wants to run it. There are parks with bigger outfields than Fenway's and Ells ability to "go and get it" will end up being a big part of his value as a CFer. Boras has to play it that way because as SK correctly points out, Ells is not somebody like a Stanton. Stanton is a natural power hitter which puts him in a completely different category as viewed by GM's. Does not matter what Stanton's BA is today. He is acknowledged to be one of the premier up and coming power hitters in baseball and unless something happens to change that perception, he will remain in a completely different category from Ells. In fact , The Sox would likely give their eye teeth for Stanton but the Marlins are simply not interested unless you give them the world. So Ells value as a CF is not insignificant and other teams will have more incentive to sign Ells than the Sox will have. Teams with larger outfields, teams that don't have a ready made solution waiting in the wings, teams that need somebody with the potential to be the face of the franchise for them as Pedey is for the Sox are all things that handicap the Sox in whatever willingness they might have to go to the wall for Ells vs other teams and their willingness to go to the wall.

 

I don't think using the Crawford contract really helps the argument for paying what it will take for Ells because the Crawford contract was a terrible contract. It is relevant in the sense that I believe Boras will find somebody willing to make that mistake but it will be IMO a mistake, surely for the Sox and maybe for any team.

 

This is going to end up being a bidding war and there are just so many elements to this that will make Ells more attractive for other teams. The price is going to go very high now that Ells is on his way to a monster season just lacking big power numbers and the Sox are simply not going to go to the wall for Ells IMO. I think there will end up being multiple teams bidding for Ells services and the money is just going to get nuts cause that is where Boras is going to take it. If the discussion were to be restricted to just Ells pure offensive performance potential, then I think the Sox would have a shot at retaining Ells. But there is no way that is going to happen.

 

The Crawford contract was a terrible contract. However the Crawford contract is worthy as part of the discussion because if Ells continues this way, I think chances are much better that Boras will be able to extract something north of $20M per from somebody for Ells. Does not make sense, but I now think it likely that the numbers eventually get there especially if it ends up with as many as three teams possibly bidding for his services.

 

It does not matter that a move to LF would extend Ells career. Players and especially players that retain Boras as an agent just don't think that way.

 

The issue is really not what Ells is worth to the Sox as much as it is what Ells will be worth to somebody else. Boras is going to be in a position to just keep coming back and coming back with higher and higher numbers for Ells and at some point the Sox are just going to bow out IMO.

[Behindenemylines]

If I was BC I would put the 5 year 20 million on the table. If Ellsbury takes it you have a Bradley-Ellsbury-Victorino OF in 2014. That is a great defensive outfield. If he doesn't then he really doesn't want to be in Boston. Some team will go over the 20 million a year mark for him though.

[a700hitter]

If I was BC I would put the 5 year 20 million on the table. If Ellsbury takes it you have a Bradley-Ellsbury-Victorino OF in 2014. That is a great defensive outfield. If he doesn't then he really doesn't want to be in Boston. Some team will go over the 20 million a year mark for him though.

or maybe he wants to stay in Boston but he will end up elsewhere, because he would be foolish not to maximize the best contractual opportunity of his career.

[sk7326]

Are you talking about Ryan Braun who has been using PED's and will not be using them again, or Giancarlo Stanton who is batting .230 something. Jacoby has 42 - SB's with only 4 - CS's. He also can be counted on to hit .290 to .310 with OBS of .360+ Also, take a look at the stats of well known speedsters and you will find that they had some pretty good numbers between ages 30 & 36. Jacoby could easily add to his OPS if he was not playing center field. Hell, he may even add to his SB numbers. I am amazed that Sox fans feel this way about Ellsbury.

 

Well Braun won't be doing that anymore probably - but those stats are an expectation for a LF ... Stanton is batting .238, but he is getting on base almost as often as Ellsbury, so it's not at all bad. The SB numbers are more interesting than crucial - we know the industry values stolen bases, but 1985 ain't comin back. Speedsters between 30 and 36 have had some good numbers, but speedsters without pop who can't play CF anymore - the stolen bases are just not enough to offset the other stuff. Basically you are talking Ichiro - who has not been an effective corner outfielder for 3 years.

 

I love Ellsbury - and the lack of homeruns does not bother me - he is clearly not a slap hitter. He is hitting the ball hard, just not as many going over the fence. But I am not sentimental about what he represents as an investment. The Crawford comp is instructive. Crawford had a pseudo-MVP season entering his free agent year - a great athlete but also a guy who was not playing CF. His rough season in 2011 indeed was made even rougher because he was playing an "offensive" position. That he was a good defender in LF (and he slipped there too in 2011) hardly mattered when his bat when in the tank so hard. The Red Sox if anything overvalued the defensive component of Crawford's WAR-case.

 

This is the basic principle of WAR/VORP/whatever. The fact is the Red Sox could snap their fingers pull Daniel Nava and Mike Carp from obscurity into ok production at LF. So if Ellsbury can't produce like Daniel Nava as a left fielder - then a team is wasting its money, since that sort of production is not hard to find. Can a team like Pittsburgh - for instance - who is getting NOTHING out of their RF, justify Ellsbury as a RF with McCutchen manning CF? Sure - but that is a very specific case. I love Ellsbury - I am trying not to be sentimental about his production as a 30 year old outfielder.

[marklmw]

Well Braun won't be doing that anymore probably - but those stats are an expectation for a LF ... Stanton is batting .238, but he is getting on base almost as often as Ellsbury, so it's not at all bad. The SB numbers are more interesting than crucial - we know the industry values stolen bases, but 1985 ain't comin back. Speedsters between 30 and 36 have had some good numbers, but speedsters without pop who can't play CF anymore - the stolen bases are just not enough to offset the other stuff. Basically you are talking Ichiro - who has not been an effective corner outfielder for 3 years.

 

 

 

I love Ellsbury - and the lack of homeruns does not bother me - he is clearly not a slap hitter. He is hitting the ball hard, just not as many going over the fence. But I am not sentimental about what he represents as an investment. The Crawford comp is instructive. Crawford had a pseudo-MVP season entering his free agent year - a great athlete but also a guy who was not playing CF. His rough season in 2011 indeed was made even rougher because he was playing an "offensive" position. That he was a good defender in LF (and he slipped there too in 2011) hardly mattered when his bat when in the tank so hard. The Red Sox if anything overvalued the defensive component of Crawford's WAR-case.

 

This is the basic principle of WAR/VORP/whatever. The fact is the Red Sox could snap their fingers pull Daniel Nava and Mike Carp from obscurity into ok production at LF. So if Ellsbury can't produce like Daniel Nava as a left fielder - then a team is wasting its money, since that sort of production is not hard to find. Can a team like Pittsburgh - for instance - who is getting NOTHING out of their RF, justify Ellsbury as a RF with McCutchen manning CF? Sure - but that is a very specific case. I love Ellsbury - I am trying not to be sentimental about his production as a 30 year old outfielder.

 

One thing I am certain of, Ellsbury will never ever be put in right field. Playing him at left in Fenway is fine due to his weak arm. Last night a ball landed on the warning track in left ... cost the Sox the game ... Ellsbury would have caught that ball in his back pocket. I do think that an outfield of Ellsbury, Bradley, and Victorino would be very strong and perhaps Sox dealing Gomes.

[dupree]

I like that outfield to and ultimately i believe that what the Sox need to do is have Ells Bradley and Vic in the outfield. I cant see the team dealing Gomes they signed him to a two year deal and would probably eat all his money and just let him sit the bench if he could come in every once in a blue moon and have some RH power they like his Fenway swing and he has proven to be a clutch hitter. But also i think the FO sees his value as a clubhouse guy and the one more year on his deal other this one is to just keep him around and let johnny be johnny and keep the guy's head right throughout the season.

[marklmw]

I like that outfield to and ultimately i believe that what the Sox need to do is have Ells Bradley and Vic in the outfield. I cant see the team dealing Gomes they signed him to a two year deal and would probably eat all his money and just let him sit the bench if he could come in every once in a blue moon and have some RH power they like his Fenway swing and he has proven to be a clutch hitter. But also i think the FO sees his value as a clubhouse guy and the one more year on his deal other this one is to just keep him around and let johnny be johnny and keep the guy's head right throughout the season.

 

Yeah, Gomes is ok, Nava, Carp, probably only keep 2 of 3. although Carp can play 1B. I think that the Sox let Napoli go. What is new with Kalish? ... guy is a stud athlete but had bad luck with injuries. I would not mind bringing Drew back for 2 more years ... solid glove decent bat. Middlebrooks, Bogaerts ... lot to work out.

[Jasonbay44]

Yeah, Gomes is ok, Nava, Carp, probably only keep 2 of 3. although Carp can play 1B. I think that the Sox let Napoli go. What is new with Kalish? ... guy is a stud athlete but had bad luck with injuries. I would not mind bringing Drew back for 2 more years ... solid glove decent bat. Middlebrooks, Bogaerts ... lot to work out.

Kalish just had another surgery, I wouldn't be counting on him to make any kind of impact ever, the dude cannot stay healthy.

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/9562517/boston-red-sox-ryan-kalish-scheduled-surgery

[marklmw]

Kalish just had another surgery, I wouldn't be counting on him to make any kind of impact ever, the dude cannot stay healthy.

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/9562517/boston-red-sox-ryan-kalish-scheduled-surgery

 

To bad about Kalish ... he made one of the most athletic catches I had ever seen.

Edited August 16, 2013 by marklmw

[SoxSport]

The lineup needs a boost right now. They are fighting the dog days of August. Bradley and Bogaerts should be called up now to see if they can help this team win a championship.

[SoxSport]

One thing I am certain of, Ellsbury will never ever be put in right field. Playing him at left in Fenway is fine due to his weak arm. Last night a ball landed on the warning track in left ... cost the Sox the game ... Ellsbury would have caught that ball in his back pocket. I do think that an outfield of Ellsbury, Bradley, and Victorino would be very strong and perhaps Sox dealing Gomes.

 

They are losing games lately on little things--not having speed at 2B last night to score the tying run. Key defensive errors by guys playing the corners out of position. They seem to be focused only on hitting and pitching. Not on fundamentals across the board. In '04, they don't get to the world series without a rabbit, Roberts, pinch running off the bench. Right now, Bradley could help a lot in that capacity as well as defense in LF. Nava and Gomes give you some hitting, and little else. In these close games, speed in the lineup can make the difference.