Yankees trade for Soriano

[jacksonianmarch]

I hate this trade. Black is a guy who probably profiles as a closer, but he's got a great arm and he throws strikes

[Standing Room]

I hate this trade. Black is a guy who probably profiles as a closer, but he's got a great arm and he throws strikes

 

Except for his biggest problem is that he doesn't.

 

Born on August 4, 1991, Black isn't a big guy, standing 5-11, listed at 175. As you would expect from a former shortstop, he is a very good athlete and has plenty of arm strength: he's been clocked as high as 100 MPH in short stints and works in the mid-90s as a starter. He has a curveball, slider, and changeup. Although none of his secondary pitches are considered outstanding, they off-set the fastball well when his command is on. His mechanics aren't the smoothest and his command is inconsistent, but he picks up strikeouts at a good clip.

 

-John Sickels, who had him ranked as the Yankees 12th best prospect

 

He's walked 4.0 batters per 9 innings pitched in his professional career and he's walked 4.9 batters per 9 innings this year.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm going off his SR from when he was drafted. Sorry, looks like his command needs work. Regardless, this isn't the kind of deal where you throw a guy like him over to the other side

[italstallianion]

Phew, I was worried that the Yankees weren't going to give up a valuable piece. Who was ranked higher in the system, Black or Whitley?

[italstallianion]

Joe Sheehan ‏@joe_sheehan 11h

If Soriano goes to NYY, #Yankees will have nine players making $15M or more in 2013. Rest of AL has 12. #mlb

[Standing Room]

Phew, I was worried that the Yankees weren't going to give up a valuable piece. Who was ranked higher in the system, Black or Whitley?

 

Black, he was ranked 12th in the Yankees system. I haven't seen Whitley listed in any rankings outside of the honorable mention section.

[italstallianion]

Sweet, I was initially concerned when MLBTR said there'd only be 1 prospect returning and the Cubs would pay around $18M. MLBTR had Black as the 25th best prospect for the Yankees at the beginning of the year according to BA. I remember the talks were around Whitley, perhaps it was going to be Whitley and someone else or a different amount of cash and the Cubs opted for the best player they could receive. I wonder if the Cubs have any other pieces they are trying to sell, Theo is netting a nice haul for the future.

[Standing Room]

Sweet, I was initially concerned when MLBTR said there'd only be 1 prospect returning and the Cubs would pay around $18M. MLBTR had Black as the 25th best prospect for the Yankees at the beginning of the year according to BA. I remember the talks were around Whitley, perhaps it was going to be Whitley and someone else or a different amount of cash and the Cubs opted for the best player they could receive. I wonder if the Cubs have any other pieces they are trying to sell, Theo is netting a nice haul for the future.

 

Cubs have been trying to trade Kevin Gregg for weeks. The Cubs actually have a lot of players who could be helpful for us, including Ransom, Valbuena, Russell, Parker and Gurrier.

[italstallianion]

What about Samardzjia?

[mvp 78]

What about Samardzjia?

 

Not a FA until 2016. Why would they want to trade a cheap and young pitcher?

[italstallianion]

Not a FA until 2016. Why would they want to trade a cheap and young pitcher?

 

Well for one, given the prices paid for Garza/Soriano/K-Rod, and the current seller's market, the Cubs would be able to get a king's ransom. And second, while Samardzija is young, he's 28 and will likely be a few years older when the Cubs are expected to be good. I wouldn't consider him a "core player" of theirs to build around.

[jacksonianmarch]

I hate this trade. I think we should tank this season as I think we have next to no chance of winning a world series. I'd rather go and win then get my hopes up and lose in the playin game, which is what we're looking at doing.

[yankees228]

I hate this trade. I think we should tank this season as I think we have next to no chance of winning a world series. I'd rather go and win then get my hopes up and lose in the playin game, which is what we're looking at doing.

 

You don't plan to win a World Series. Because of the nature of the baseball and its postseason everyone has to realize that the only reasonable goal is to put yourself in a position to make the playoffs, and then just hope things work out from there. I would be ecstatic should the Yankees get an opportunity to play the wild card game.

[jacksonianmarch]

y228, I don't think we have a chance in a 7 game set vs a team like Texas or Detroit.

[mvp 78]

y228, I don't think we have a chance in a 7 game set vs a team like Texas or Detroit.

 

Or Boston/Baltimore/Tampa/Oakland

 

Yeah, they really need to just tank and work towards next year.

[yankees228]

y228, I don't think we have a chance in a 7 game set vs a team like Texas or Detroit.

 

I didn't think a lot of teams had much of a chance in a postseason series and then I was scratching my head a week later. It's baseball in a small sample size. If by some strange loophole in the rules MLB let the Marlins into the playoffs, guess what, they'd have a chance too.

[Standing Room]

The playoffs are a crapshoot. The problem for the Yankees is that they currently have something like a 13% chance of making the playoffs and they're giving up prospects, hurting their draft position and passing up a chance to acquire a ton of quality prospects by being buyers.

[yankees228]

Who do you expect them to sell?

[Standing Room]

Who do you expect them to sell?

 

Cano, Hughes, Logan and Chamberlain. Kuroda has a no-trade, which is unfortunate for them.

[Emmz]

I didn't think a lot of teams had much of a chance in a postseason series and then I was scratching my head a week later. It's baseball in a small sample size. If by some strange loophole in the rules MLB let the Marlins into the playoffs, guess what, they'd have a chance too.

 

You're making it sound like a team's ability doesn't factor into it, and only random chance comes into play. Baseball is not f***ing blackjack.

[Standing Room]

You're making it sound like a team's ability doesn't factor into it, and only random chance comes into play. Baseball is not f***ing blackjack.

 

Skill definitely factors in to it, but there's a reason baseball seasons are 162 games long. In small sample sizes like 1, 5 or 7 game series pretty much anything can happen.

[yankees228]

Cano, Hughes, Logan and Chamberlain. Kuroda has a no-trade, which is unfortunate for them.

 

There's probably some alternate reality where it's possible that the Yankees would consider trading Robinson Cano. Unfortunately we're still in the present reality, so it's never going to even be a consideration and it's not even worth discussing.

 

As for the others, for starters, I don't think they would be able to net a "ton of quality prospects". Two underperforming pitchers who aren't under contract after this year and a lefty specialist may be attractive to some teams, but they aren't exactly the most valuable commodities. Additionally, maybe they are looking to trade those guys, who knows. Even if they still want to compete in 2013, they don't need Hughes and Chamberlain to do it.

[yankees228]

You're making it sound like a team's ability doesn't factor into it, and only random chance comes into play. Baseball is not f***ing blackjack.

 

I didn't mean to imply that in any way. Considering how obvious it is that skills plays a factor, I found it unnecessary to say so explicitly. There's no doubt that a team's ability is a factor. But baseball is such where a team with a .550 winning percentage has a heck of a good shot at beating a team with a .600 win percentage in a short series. That's the point.

 

Not only does basic logic show this to be true, but history does as well.

[Emmz]

Skill definitely factors in to it, but there's a reason baseball seasons are 162 games long. In small sample sizes like 1, 5 or 7 game series pretty much anything can happen.

 

That's just obvious, but it isn't a crapshoot then if ability is a factor. It's about who's the better team during the course of the series, and odds really have nothing to do with it.

 

If the league ended the regular season and started the playoffs today, you could probably pick the winners pretty accurately. Sometimes there's a surprise run by a team that you didn't think was going to be in the discussion, like the Rockies, but they were red hot and I definitely thought they were in the discussion in '07, but I also thought the Red Sox were going to destroy them in the WS. That was just more likely, and it wasn't just a fan decision, the Red Sox were just a much better team overall, and I'd felt that the Rockies' hot streak had just about run it's course.

 

We'll see when it gets to being October again.

[Standing Room]

There's probably some alternate reality where it's possible that the Yankees would consider trading Robinson Cano. Unfortunately we're still in the present reality, so it's never going to even be a consideration and it's not even worth discussing.

 

As for the others, for starters, I don't think they would be able to net a "ton of quality prospects". Two underperforming pitchers who aren't under contract after this year and a lefty specialist may be attractive to some teams, but they aren't exactly the most valuable commodities. Additionally, maybe they are looking to trade those guys, who knows. Even if they still want to compete in 2013, they don't need Hughes and Chamberlain to do it.

 

I'm not arguing what the Yankees will do. I've already said I thought they should trade Cano but they were probably too stupid to do it. And I seem to remember you agreeing with me on Cano. They could also consider trading David Robertson and Brett Gardner since they'll be free agents after next year and the chances of the Yankees fielding a competitive team and staying under the luxury tax threshold are pretty low. But they won't do that either.

 

It's just not the "Yankee way", and for that I love them. It's going to be an enjoyable few years watching them flounder.

[Emmz]

I didn't mean to imply that in any way. Considering how obvious it is that skills plays a factor, I found it unnecessary to say so explicitly. There's no doubt that a team's ability is a factor. But baseball is such where a team with a .550 winning percentage has a heck of a good shot at beating a team with a .600 win percentage in a short series. That's the point.

 

Not only does basic logic show this to be true, but history does as well.

 

It's not odds vs. odds though, players don't just walk out there all "Hey guys, hopefully this is our day, otherwise we'll see what game two has for in store for us".

 

The short series really isn't that big of a difference maker. The better team still wins way more often than not, and record isn't really the only way to look at it.

 

Sometimes a team with 90 wins is obviously just as good as a team with 100+, but then there are teams like the '07 Rockies, or like if the Guardians, Padres or Yankees made it in this year, that you just know are going to lose. How many of the "Cinderella" teams do you actually see win the WS?

[yankees228]

It's not odds vs. odds though, players don't just walk out there all "Hey guys, hopefully this is our day, otherwise we'll see what game two has for in store for us".

 

The short series really isn't that big of a difference maker. The better team still wins way more often than not, and record isn't really the only way to look at it.

 

Sometimes a team with 90 wins is obviously just as good as a team with 100+, but then there are teams like the '07 Rockies, or like if the Guardians, Padres or Yankees made it in this year, that you just know are going to lose. How many of the "Cinderella" teams do you actually see win the WS?

 

Well I mean, if you don't think the short series is a big factor than we've reached a substantial impasse.

 

EDIT: If the Yankees somehow managed to make it the World Series this year, you would "just know they are going to lose"?

[yankees228]

I'm not arguing what the Yankees will do. I've already said I thought they should trade Cano but they were probably too stupid to do it. And I seem to remember you agreeing with me on Cano. They could also consider trading David Robertson and Brett Gardner since they'll be free agents after next year and the chances of the Yankees fielding a competitive team and staying under the luxury tax threshold are pretty low. But they won't do that either.

 

It's just not the "Yankee way", and for that I love them. It's going to be an enjoyable few years watching them flounder.

 

That's fair on Cano, and yes, I do agree that not retaining him is the prudent course to take.

[User Name]

2002: Angels win WS against the behemoth of a team assembled by SF, against all odds.

2003: Marlins are the worst team to make the playoffs, win WS over the much superior and heavily favored Yankees.

2006: Cardinals are the worst team to make the playoffs, make it crawling, beat arguably the best team in the NL (Mets) and a vastly superior Tigers squad en route to winning the WS.

2010: The Giants, who have a good team but are obviously inferior to the heavily favored Rangers, win the WS.

2011: The Cardinals, arguably the weakest team to make the playoffs in the NL, rolls to the playoffs en route to beat the absolutely best team in the playoffs, the Texas Rangers, to win the WS.

2012: The Giants, a good but flawed team proceed to beat the much much better and possibly best team in the playoffs, the Detroit Tigers, to win the WS.

 

The playoffs are a crapshoot. The way baseball works, anyone can win a short series. The only thing the better teams have in their is slightly better odds.

[yankees228]

Angels also beat a hell of a Yankees team.