A700's Spring Training Thoughts and Observations

[Station 13]

Yes it's too early. Usually the last couple starts is a better indication on velocity. Pitchers are starting to amp it up then. But still ST radar guns seem to be pretty inconsistent across the board.

 

I was watching the Sunday game broadcast on YES/NESN, the NESN feed probably used the reading from jetBlue. Every pitch is 2MPH slower on the NESN feed.

[SoxSport]

Ruby was throwing harder than that the last outing I saw on TV--96. But he was throwing lots of slow stuff, too. Too much--maybe working on his changeup. You can't tell by a single outing in ST on any pitcher. Heck, Kershaw has been lit up his first couple of appearances.

[seabeachfred]

IMO, whatever Ruby is, he is more of a gonna' be ......somewhere off in the future. I know there are folks that want to be encouraged by what they are seeing from Ruby cause our starting pitching is pretty IFFY, with a capitol I. So suddenly Ruby has gone from a decent pick up in the salary dump to the savior of this year's rotation. Nice leap of faith but it is all leap. Let me know if there was any water in the pool when you guys finally stop free falling.

 

He is very very inconsistent. If you want to convince yourselves that at his very young age, he is inconsistent by design ( Oh that cagy Ruby) go right ahead but I think you are kidding yourselves. I said it at the time and will repeat it here. As whacky as taking on all that salary was, the idea that along with doing so, LA gave up starting pitching that could actually produce in 2013 is in a word, preposterous. I refuse to believe that anybody with a ML FO job is that stupid and incompetent.

 

Its neat that the kid can throw with some gas....sometimes.....but he has a looooooong way to go.

 

I am glad we got pitching back in the salary dump but it is pitching that we might see in red stockings sometime after 2013 if at all.

 

Again for the fourth or fifth time, the Dodgers did NOT give us their best pitching prospect. He is Zack Lee and he is still with the Los Angelenos. DeLaRosa pitched some for them two seasons back and I saw him pitch on TV a number of times. Pardon me if I say I wasn't overly impressed. Now that was two years ago and he is older and more developed now, but I wonder if his ball is as straight as an arrow still and whether he gets his pitches up and gets tagged? Apparently he still does. I think we will have to wait on this guy and hope he develops further and can finally do something for us down the road a year or two or three.

 

As for Webster, I hope 700 will get a line on how he throws. I've never seen the guy pitch and wonder if he is all hype as well.

[Palodios]

Again for the fourth or fifth time, the Dodgers did NOT give us their best pitching prospect. He is Zack Lee and he is still with the Los Angelenos. DeLaRosa pitched some for them two seasons back and I saw him pitch on TV a number of times.

 

Maybe at the time of the trade, Lee was more valuable, but in 2013, Webster has been better ranked by most of the top prospect rankings.

 

MLB's 2013 prospect rankings

Webster-- #71

Lee-- #78.

 

Baseball Prospectus's 2013 prospect rankings

Webster -- #69

Lee-- #87

 

Baseball America's 2013 prospect rankings

Webster -- #49

Lee-- not listed.

[Palodios]

Also, Keith Law's list

 

Webster -- 63

Lee -- 67

[mvp 78]

Will everyone please stop playing "gotcha" with Fred!

[seabeachfred]

Maybe at the time of the trade, Lee was more valuable, but in 2013, Webster has been better ranked by most of the top prospect rankings.

 

MLB's 2013 prospect rankings

Webster-- #71

Lee-- #78.

 

Baseball Prospectus's 2013 prospect rankings

Webster -- #69

Lee-- #87

 

Baseball America's 2013 prospect rankings

Webster -- #49

Lee-- not listed.

 

That's interesting to note Palodios and thanks for the update. I have to keep my opinions of Webster to myself since I have never seen him pitch and know very little about him except what I read, like the info you just posted. Notice the bottom of your posts??? NEED PITCHING!!!!!! Well, you're right and what we need is a great one-two punch of horses who are threats to shutout opponents any time they take to the mound. You win with solid starting pitching. I wonder if Webster and Barnes could be the duo for us in the future? To me, DLR is better suited as a reliever.

[SoxFanForsyth]

That's interesting to note Palodios and thanks for the update. I have to keep my opinions of Webster to myself since I have never seen him pitch and know very little about him except what I read, like the info you just posted. Notice the bottom of your posts??? NEED PITCHING!!!!!! Well, you're right and what we need is a great one-two punch of horses who are threats to shutout opponents any time they take to the mound. You win with solid starting pitching. I wonder if Webster and Barnes could be the duo for us in the future? To me, DLR is better suited as a reliever.

 

Based on what? He's one of the few guys who can sustain upper 90's and even triple digits deep into starts.

[BSN07]

It's also interesting to note the DLR would be ranked higher then Webster and Lee had he not barely lost his prospect eligibility.

 

So Fred your correct in saying they didn't send us their best SP prospect. Theoretically they sent us their 2 best SP prospects

[a700hitter]

a700 - I think if you would have seen Rubby in either of his other two appearances, you would have come away much more impressed.

 

The fact that every one of the beat writers were blown away by him, including Alex Speier, who is a very knowledgeable guy, makes me think there's something to this kid. Either way, jury is still out on him.

 

I really hope you get to see Allen Webster. I saw him pitch last Saturday against the Twins when I was down there, and the kid has absolutely filthy stuff. He was just dominating. Fastball touching 99, sitting 94-97, change sitting 86-87. Sitting behind the plate, it looked like I was watching him throw a damn whiffle ball, it was moving that much. Same with Buch. His pitches were crazy.

It was just one outing, and he may have just had a bad day, but I am going to take special note of whether they let him face the other team's starting lineups. They let Wright face the Pirates' starting lineup and he took a beating. I wondered if they brought Rubby in to face the reserves to boost his confidence. He didn't have command of any of his three pitches yesterday.

[kapsis21]

lets give DLR half a season in AAA and see what he can do.. its too early to make assumptions on who is going to do what based on 3 outings.

[jung]

Absolutely right Kaps...

 

In reality, DLR is just not ready yet and he is not going to be ready by April 1 or anytime soon after April 1. Based on what I have seen, I suspect he will need 2013 to get his act together. He might possibly be worth a Fenway look late in 2013 depending on what else might be going on. Maybe he gets a start or two late this season. With any luck maybe he is on the 2014 roster.

 

All of this rush to judgement stuff on DLR is mostly instigated by hoping he could be a part of the 2013 rotation. DLR is neither good nor bad at this point. He is an incomplete. From what I see I think he will likely need most if not all of the 2013 season at AAA getting his act together.

[BSN07]

lets give DLR half a season in AAA and see what he can do.. its too early to make assumptions on who is going to do what based on 3 outings.

 

Exactly. Like I've been saying he could use some time in the Minors. He's thrown like 100 IP the last couple years. He's going to have to build up his innings. He's probably going to be on a strict pitch count/innings limit this season. He may have the ability to be in Boston now, but he won't be able to help the innings load much.

 

Webster is probably #1 in depth right now. He has a much bigger chance of helping Boston this season IMO.

 

It's funny, this time last year Barnes was the guy most of us were looking forward to seeing in the next couple years. It seems Webster and DLR have completely overshadowed him. Is he even in camp with the Sox?

[BSN07]

Interesting article,

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/25305/soxprospects-depth-on-the-mound

[kapsis21]

Exactly. Like I've been saying he could use some time in the Minors. He's thrown like 100 IP the last couple years. He's going to have to build up his innings. He's probably going to be on a strict pitch count/innings limit this season. He may have the ability to be in Boston now, but he won't be able to help the innings load much.

 

Webster is probably #1 in depth right now. He has a much bigger chance of helping Boston this season IMO.

 

It's funny, this time last year Barnes was the guy most of us were looking forward to seeing in the next couple years. It seems Webster and DLR have completely overshadowed him. Is he even in camp with the Sox?

 

Barnes was overpowering everyone but he was in single A, at AA he did have some rough outings which is good. but you are right we were all about Barnes last year until we got DLR and Webster.

 

My directv MLB channel shows pregames so i do get a glimpse of some of the games. i did see Wright pitch and he was leaving all his pitches right in the belt level and i was cringing at every pitch.. his knuckle ball only drops by a little and without any movement.. unless he brings more to his reportoire i think he is not going to make it.

[kapsis21]

Absolutely right Kaps...

 

In reality, DLR is just not ready yet and he is not going to be ready by April 1 or anytime soon after April 1. Based on what I have seen, I suspect he will need 2013 to get his act together. He might possibly be worth a Fenway look late in 2013 depending on what else might be going on. Maybe he gets a start or two late this season. With any luck maybe he is on the 2014 roster.

 

All of this rush to judgement stuff on DLR is mostly instigated by hoping he could be a part of the 2013 rotation. DLR is neither good nor bad at this point. He is an incomplete. From what I see I think he will likely need most if not all of the 2013 season at AAA getting his act together.

yep i am with ya.

 

how you doing jung its been a long break hasnt it..

[jung]

Doin' OK Kaps. Tough off season.....too long.....too much snow.....too much of just about everything Winter. How you doin'

[kapsis21]

Doin' OK Kaps. Tough off season.....too long.....too much snow.....too much of just about everything Winter. How you doin'

 

the winter has been okay here in IL got 1 big storm 10 days back, the other one was a storm and turned out to be 2 inches.. otherwise same old.. work and home..

 

cant wait for the season to start already though.

[seabeachfred]

Based on what? He's one of the few guys who can sustain upper 90's and even triple digits deep into starts.

 

Based on what?????? I've seen him pitch a number of times which is a helluva lot more than you, mvp or any of the others have and it uis my opinion that while he has a good arm, his mound work needs some adjustent. His fastball is as straight as an arrow and when he pitched for the Dodgers two years ago he was constantly getting behind hitters and then getting lit up. Any good hitter can hit a 95 MPH fastball this lacks movement, just look at Bard last season. Now he does have a good fastball and with experience could be a help to the team, but in my opinion it is as a reliever and not a starter. Any person on this board who even hints that he could become another Pedro Martinez needs his head examined. But, of course, mvp will now say otherwise.

[mvp 78]

Why is my name being brought up here? I haven't talked about Rubby in weeks?

[seabeachfred]

Why is my name being brought up here? I haven't talked about Rubby in weeks?

 

Well since I gave an opinion on a player I was waiting for you to give an opposite opinion on it since you have never agreed with me on anything I've posted. Then, again mvp, miracles can happen and I was waiting with baited breath to see if finally you might actually back me up for a change.

 

Frankly, I don't think DLR is ready for the big time yet.

[mvp 78]

I've agreed with you before and you even noted "wow mvp, we finally agree on something." Getting old must be rough.

 

No, Rubby is not ready yet. At most, I'd call him up in the 2nd half to work out of the bullpen. That's been my position all offseason.

 

However, I think he has a higher ceiling than you are giving him credit for.

[a700hitter]

The gun reading is too unreliable at spring training facilities. The jetBlue Park gun is a little slow as well, off as much as 2MPH.

 

It's also a little too early in spring training to make a huge deal out of radar reading.

I think the gun at JetBlue is pretty accurate. On Wednesday, it was showing Wright throwing his knuckle ball at 76 and his fastball at 84. I don't think he throws any harder than that. Tonight, the gun was showing Dempster at 85-89. Most of his pitches were 87-88. The Twins' Pelfrey was between 88-92. I think these readings are pretty accurate.

[mvp 78]

Bradford was saying that he was sitting with "scouts" and their guns were always 2 mph high than Jet Blue.

[a700hitter]

Bradford was saying that he was sitting with "scouts" and their guns were always 2 mph high than Jet Blue.

Maybe the scouts guns aren't calibrated right, or maybe the stadium's gun has been recalibrated. I have never read that Wright throws his knuckle ball at 78. Reports are that he throws it hard but at 74-76. I also don't think he throws his fastball at 86.

[seabeachfred]

I've agreed with you before and you even noted "wow mvp, we finally agree on something." Getting old must be rough.

 

No, Rubby is not ready yet. At most, I'd call him up in the 2nd half to work out of the bullpen. That's been my position all offseason.

 

However, I think he has a higher ceiling than you are giving him credit for.

 

Wasn't it that I agreed with you instead? Oh, the hell with it. We are on the same page with this---and I guess I may have forgotten. A senior moment!!! He may have a higher cealing than I currently give him credit for but I'm going by what I saw two years ago. Then he had that surgery and, well, who knows how much that set him back? Like you, though, I see him as a reliever. For an inning or two his hummer could be very effective in that role.

[a700hitter]

There really was very little to report on tonight. Dempster was effective, but I can't see him being very successful in the AL with his stuff. The biggest plus he can give us would be a lot of mediocre innings.

 

Wilson threw okay 92-93. If the gun is 2 mph slow, he still did not throw harder than Carter. Don't know much about Carter but he has a smoother and easier delivery than Wilson. He impressed me more thsn Wilson, but neither is very impressive.

[mvp 78]

For an inning or two his hummer could be very effective in that role.

 

You don't have to be gross about it.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Based on what?????? I've seen him pitch a number of times which is a helluva lot more than you, mvp or any of the others have and it uis my opinion that while he has a good arm, his mound work needs some adjustent. His fastball is as straight as an arrow and when he pitched for the Dodgers two years ago he was constantly getting behind hitters and then getting lit up. Any good hitter can hit a 95 MPH fastball this lacks movement, just look at Bard last season. Now he does have a good fastball and with experience could be a help to the team, but in my opinion it is as a reliever and not a starter. Any person on this board who even hints that he could become another Pedro Martinez needs his head examined. But, of course, mvp will now say otherwise.

 

Dude get your panties out of a wad. I'm not sure you've seen him pitch more than me considering I went back and watched old games of him pitching with the Dodgers. And every scout and essentially person who has been at his games, other than a700, has said that this kid is special, his stuff is filthy and electric. He doesn't throw 95, he throws ~97 and touches 100. There's a big difference there.

 

His fastball has averaged about 6.45 inches of run to it over his MLB career, according to Brooks Baseball. David Prices fastball has 7.14 inches of run. His fastball has plenty of movement.

 

He also threw 56% 1st pitch strikes in 2011, when the league average was 59.8%. So, that's what, 4% less than League Average? Which translates to, in a 7 inning start facing 30 hitters, 1 fewer 1st pitch strike per game? It's certainly something that he can improve on, but hell, it's certainly not something I would use to say he won't be successful as a starter.

 

Did you notice his 3.71 ERA, or his 3.85 FIP, or his 3.55 xFIP? As a 22 year old??

 

It's mind boggling that, with his stuff, you want to put him in the pen.

[SoxFanForsyth]

And by the way, 1-trick pony? Wtf is that even supposed to mean?