2013 Red Sox predictions.

[Scottish Red Sox Fan]

I think my expectations for the Red Sox heading into 2013 are going to be as low as they were in 2012. I haven't been all that excited by the moves we've made in the off season to be honest.

 

A 4th or 5th place finish wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

[Palodios]

How do you explain Buchs 3.5 and . Lesters 3.7 to Salty in all of 2011? How do you explain some pitchers with better era's in 2012 with Salty as opposed to Shopach?

 

Here are some statistics that Bellhorn found a few weeks ago. Maybe some pitchers do well with Salty, but the two pitchers that truly matter do not.

 

 

Lester with Shoppach 3.70 48.2 innings

Lester with Salty 5.62 107.1 innings

 

Buch with Shoppach 3.23 78 innings

Buch with Salty 6.30 75.2 innings

[BSN07]

Here are some statistics that Bellhorn found a few weeks ago. Maybe some pitchers do well with Salty, but the two pitchers that truly matter do not.

 

 

Lester with Shoppach 3.70 48.2 innings

Lester with Salty 5.62 107.1 innings

 

Buch with Shoppach 3.23 78 innings

Buch with Salty 6.30 75.2 innings

 

This isn't the ultimate proof of Salty's deficiencies in game calling. But it is something that raises and eye brow and might deserve some exploring.

[wyo-sox]

Here are some statistics that Bellhorn found a few weeks ago. Maybe some pitchers do well with Salty, but the two pitchers that truly matter do not.

 

 

Lester with Shoppach 3.70 48.2 innings

Lester with Salty 5.62 107.1 innings

 

Buch with Shoppach 3.23 78 innings

Buch with Salty 6.30 75.2 innings

 

2011 Lester with Salty 3.77 around 140 innings

2011 Buch with Salty 3.5 around 80 innings

 

So one year they did pitch fine to him, last year they did not. Does that not tell anyone 2012 was the pitchers fault? Not sure why everyone wants to find the worst performers with Salty and ignore their previous performance with him?????

 

If you want to point out two pitchers era's and draw a connection to the catcher, I think you owe an explanation as to why the previous year they did fine, and why lower era's to him were not across the board.

[a700hitter]

I think my expectations for the Red Sox heading into 2013 are going to be as low as they were in 2012. I haven't been all that excited by the moves we've made in the off season to be honest.

 

A 4th or 5th place finish wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

That's what I am seeing -- a 4th place or last place team. Which makes me question why they have spent so much money, getting back to a $170 million payroll. Does the FO really think this will be a competitive team? I could have finished last with a much lower payroll. It remind me of a story told by Ralph Kiner. He had led the league in HRs and he asked Branch Rickey for a raise. The Pirates had finished in last place. Rickey refused to give Kiner a raise telling him that he had finished in last with Kiner and he was pretty sure that he could finish last without him.

[wyo-sox]

That's what I am seeing -- a 4th place or last place team. Which makes me question why they have spent so much money, getting back to a $170 million payroll. Does the FO really think this will be a competitive team? I could have finished last with a much lower payroll. It remind me of a story told by Ralph Kiner. He had led the league in HRs and he asked Branch Rickey for a raise. The Pirates had finished in last place. Rickey refused to give Kiner a raise telling him that he had finished in last with Kiner and he was pretty sure that he could finish last without him.

 

LOL My dad always told me that story but I never knew who the characters were.

My expectations seem to flop back and forth. One day I can convince myself we will be in the playoffs, the next day I am sure we will be in the basement again. Should be an interesting year.

[a700hitter]

LOL My dad always told me that story but I never knew who the characters were.

My expectations seem to flop back and forth. One day I can convince myself we will be in the playoffs, the next day I am sure we will be in the basement again. Should be an interesting year.

The flip flopping back and forth happens to me too, because I want to have hope.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Sox and Yanks are virtually in the exact same boat right now.

 

If things break right, and the players stay healthy, both teams have the chance to be a 93-95 win team.

 

If things turn sour, they can turn really sour.

 

I see both the Sox and Yanks as 87-89 win teams this year, both in the WC hunt well into September

[Palodios]

2011 Lester with Salty 3.77 around 140 innings

2011 Buch with Salty 3.5 around 80 innings

 

You're hiding the statistics.

 

In 2011, Lester pitched 3.77 with Salty....

In 2011, Lester pitched 2.80 ERA with everyone else.

 

 

Buchholz pitched 62 innings with Salty, not 80. That's a pretty small sample. Considering that Buchholz can pitch to a sub 3 ERA at his best, I'm not convinced by this.

[SoxSport]

With the balance in the AL east, I would be surprised if any team wins much more than 90 games. Don't these teams still play each other 20 times during the season? That's a killer schedule, and is almost unfair to these teams compared to the schedules in some of the lesser leagues.

[BSN07]

That's what I am seeing -- a 4th place or last place team. Which makes me question why they have spent so much money, getting back to a $170 million payroll. Does the FO really think this will be a competitive team? I could have finished last with a much lower payroll. It remind me of a story told by Ralph Kiner. He had led the league in HRs and he asked Branch Rickey for a raise. The Pirates had finished in last place. Rickey refused to give Kiner a raise telling him that he had finished in last with Kiner and he was pretty sure that he could finish last without him.

 

They could have done 3 things this winter,

 

1. Total rebuild, no major FA signings, kept payroll low.

 

2. Retool with short term deals to keep the team interesting while they wait on the arrival of a few key prospects.

 

3. Fuk it all!!!! Spent huge money and years on Grienke, Sanchez and Hamilton and glut up the Rotation and ear mark a lot of future money on guys that are ?

 

You would have lost your s*** if they didn't spend anything and went with choice 1

 

I believe they went with choice 2.

 

Choice 3 would have been flashy but most likely put them into a similar situation they just were able to get out from under. Doesn't seem like the best choice.

[a700hitter]

They could have done 3 things this winter,

 

1. Total rebuild, no major FA signings, kept payroll low.

 

2. Retool with short term deals to keep the team interesting while they wait on the arrival of a few key prospects.

 

3. Fuk it all!!!! Spent huge money and years on Grienke, Sanchez and Hamilton and glut up the Rotation and ear mark a lot of future money on guys that are ?

 

You would have lost your s*** if they didn't spend anything and went with choice 1

 

I believe they went with choice 2.

 

Choice 3 would have been flashy but most likely put them into a similar situation they just were able to get out from under. Doesn't seem like the best choice.

There's nothing wrong with going with #2, but they retooled the wrong part of the team. The starting pitching needed the retooling. What they have managed with this so-called retooling, is a team with a roster that looks like a 4th place or last place team, and yes, if that happens with $170 million payroll, I will lose my s***. If they did a total rebuild, I wouldn't like finishing at the bottom, but at least I could understand that. Finishing 4th or last for $170 million is not a retool. If they wanted to retool, they should have done something more to improve the starting pitching.

[Palodios]

There's nothing wrong with going with #2, but they retooled the wrong part of the team. The starting pitching needed the retooling. What they have managed with this so-called retooling, is a team with a roster that looks like a 4th place or last place team, and yes, if that happens with $170 million payroll, I will lose my s***. If they did a total rebuild, I wouldn't like finishing at the bottom, but at least I could understand that. Finishing 4th or last for $170 million is not a retool. If they wanted to retool, they should have done something more to improve the starting pitching.

 

The Red Sox didn't like any of the pitching options available this year, and are keeping the team competitive until better pitching becomes available on the market in one or two years down the road.

 

I believe they will make a very big run at Felix Hernandez in the next year or two. They have the financial flexibility, and the prospects. If this turns into another bridge year, then players like Ellsbury, Drew, Napoli etc are all going to be big trade chips this season.... which will bring in prospects to be shipped to Seattle a year later.

[a700hitter]

The Red Sox didn't like any of the pitching options available this year, and are keeping the team competitive until better pitching becomes available on the market in one or two years down the road.

 

I believe they will make a very big run at Felix Hernandez in the next year or two. They have the financial flexibility, and the prospects. If this turns into another bridge year, then players like Ellsbury, Drew, Napoli etc are all going to be big trade chips this season.... which will then be shipped to Seattle in the following offseason.

I don't think the moves they have made will make them competitive this season unless they still add to the pitching. If this is the team they are planning to go north with, they should have opted for a total rebuild, IMO.

[a700hitter]

I believe they will make a very big run at Felix Hernandez in the next year or two. They have the financial flexibility, and the prospects. If this turns into another bridge year, then players like Ellsbury, Drew, Napoli etc are all going to be big trade chips this season.... which will then be shipped to Seattle in the following offseason.

If Ellsbury, Drew and Napoli are all on one year contracts, how could they be shipped to Seattle for King Felix? I am not getting that. I don't see Seattle walking away from their centerpiece. If King Felix gives them no choice and walks in 2015, I don't have a great deal of confidence that we would outbid the Yanks, Dodgers and others for him. Do you have anything to believe that getting King Felix would be something more than a pipe dream?

[Palodios]

If Ellsbury, Drew and Napoli are all on one year contracts, how could they be shipped to Seattle for King Felix? I am not getting that. I don't see Seattle walking away from their centerpiece. If King Felix gives them no choice and walks in 2015, I don't have a great deal of confidence that we would outbid the Yanks, Dodgers and others for him. Do you have anything to believe that getting King Felix would be something more than a pipe dream?

 

I worded that poorly. Ellsbury, Drew, etc will be trade chips this season.... to pull in prospects which will then be used the following offseason.

[Palodios]

I don't think the moves they have made will make them competitive this season unless they still add to the pitching. If this is the team they are planning to go north with, they should have opted for a total rebuild, IMO.

 

By competitive, I mean a 80-85 win team. What benefit would there be in a complete rebuild anyway? Stripping the team of talent would be more trouble than its worth.

 

Ellsbury has more trade value midseason than right now, so that's why he's still here. Lester too. Pedroia, Middlebrooks, and Buchholz aren't going anywhere. By signing players on short term deals, those players become trade pieces midseason, and in the long run actually help the rebuilding process.

[BSN07]

I don't think the moves they have made will make them competitive this season unless they still add to the pitching.

 

If this is the team they are planning to go north with, they should have opted for a total rebuild, IMO.

 

Yes but that is because your under the assumption no one pitches better then last season.

 

And you can say now they should have gone total rebuild. I was pumping that idea early when Lester for Myers was being floated around. I believe you were one of many that were very non receptive of moving any ML talent for prospects and going into full rebuild mode.

 

Again if they had gone into total rebuild, you would have been first in line screaming that ownership was pocketing all the money and not putting a good product on the field. I'm not saying the line behind you wouldn't have been long with people screaming the same thing, but there is no way you would not have been killing the FO/Ownership if they did that. Not unless they cut ticket prices, and I think both of us can agree that ain't happening.

[a700hitter]

I worded that poorly. Ellsbury, Drew, etc will be trade chips this season.... to pull in prospects which will then be used the following offseason.

IMO, A couple of months of these guys will not pull in the kind of prospects that it will take to get King Felix.

[a700hitter]

By competitive, I mean a 80-85 win team. What benefit would there be in a complete rebuild anyway? Stripping the team of talent would be more trouble than its worth.

 

Ellsbury has more trade value midseason than right now, so that's why he's still here. Lester too. Pedroia, Middlebrooks, and Buchholz aren't going anywhere. By signing players on short term deals, those players become trade pieces midseason, and in the long run actually help the rebuilding process.

The only value is that they could have banked an additional $50- 60 million to go after pitchers next year.

[Palodios]

IMO, A couple of months of these guys will not pull in the kind of prospects that it will take to get King Felix.

 

By all means, the Red Sox will need to add prospects of their own, but I see this trade deadline as a big opportunity to close the gap.

 

We would be looking at a sell-high situation. In 2011, Ellsbury was a MVP candidate, Hanrahan was an elite closer, Napoli had a 1.000 OPS. Stephen Drew is one of a small handful of quality shortstops in the league. Teams desperate for a World Series are willing to give one, maybe two top 100 prospects for each of those guys, if performing at peak levels. Not all of those guys will be, but it is very likely that they could pull in 3 top prospects from that group alone.

[a700hitter]

Yes but that is because your under the assumption no one pitches better then last season.

 

And you can say now they should have gone total rebuild. I was pumping that idea early when Lester for Myers was being floated around. I believe you were one of many that were very non receptive of moving any ML talent for prospects and going into full rebuild mode.

 

Again if they had gone into total rebuild, you would have been first in line screaming that ownership was pocketing all the money and not putting a good product on the field. I'm not saying the line behind you wouldn't have been long with people screaming the same thing, but there is no way you would not have been killing the FO/Ownership if they did that. Not unless they cut ticket prices, and I think both of us can agree that ain't happening.

Yes, I am assuming that there will not be a big improvement by the same crew that has been under performing, since September 1, 2011, especially if Salty remains as the catcher. I think their off season plan was either badly misguided, or they started with a better plan to retool the pitching, but they implemented the plan badly. From the outside looking in, it has little rhyme or reason. The explanations that I am reading are strained rationalizations. It's like fixing the tires and brakes on an old clunker that needs a full engine tuneup. It's not going to run any better.

[a700hitter]

By all means, the Red Sox will need to add prospects of their own, but I see this trade deadline as a big opportunity to close the gap.

 

We would be looking at a sell-high situation. In 2011, Ellsbury was a MVP candidate, Hanrahan was an elite closer, Napoli had a 1.000 OPS. Stephen Drew is one of a small handful of quality shortstops in the league. Teams desperate for a World Series are willing to give one, maybe two top 100 prospects for each of those guys, if performing at peak levels. Not all of those guys will be, but it is very likely that they could pull in 3 top prospects from that group alone.

If Ellsbury is having a 2011 type season, he could net a decent prospect. If Hanrahan pitches like he did for the Pirates, he might net us something decent. Drew could get us a prospect or two, but not top prospects. IMO, Napoli will not get us anything with his defensive limitations and injury risk. Remember, that these would be 2 month rentals. You don't get blue chippers for a rental.

[Dojji]

Are we still under the delusion that King Felix is leaving Seattle, much less coming to Boston as opposed to other, currently much more exciting and prestigious destinations like LA or NYY?

 

Wow people.

[a700hitter]

Are we still under the delusion that King Felix is leaving Seattle, much less coming to Boston as opposed to other, currently much more exciting and prestigious destinations like LA or NYY?

 

Wow people.

I think it has to go into the pipe dream category.

[Palodios]

Are we still under the delusion that King Felix is leaving Seattle, much less coming to Boston as opposed to other, currently much more exciting and prestigious destinations like LA or NYY?

 

Wow people.

 

Mr. Pipe Dream himself dissing a very likely scenario? Do I need to point out the facts?

 

1) At the end of 2013, Felix is signed for one more year. No options.

2) Seattle has been constantly trying to lock up Felix, but Hernandez has shown no indication that he is open to it.

3) Felix costs 20 million a year on a mid-salary team.

4) With the fences being brought in, Felix will probably see a few fly balls turn into home runs, and his value may start to diminish. Not significantly, but enough to drop his price tag from "untouchable" to "Only-if-you-overpay".

5) The Red Sox need an ace badly, and are going to be one of the teams willing to shell out 25-30 million a year at 7 years AND high-tier prospects for one.

 

At some point, Seattle is going to see the end of their ace, and that will probably be at the end of the 2013 season. They might as well cash in while they can.

[Palodios]

I think it has to go into the pipe dream category.

 

The Red Sox have said a few things that offseason that makes me believe that they're open to long term deals, but only for the right players. They also said they were willing to trade away prospects, but only for the right players. It seemed like they didn't want to touch Sanchez, Greinke, Shields or Dickey with a ten foot pole. But Felix?

[BSN07]

Yes, I am assuming that there will not be a big improvement by the same crew that has been under performing, since September 1, 2011, especially if Salty remains as the catcher. I think their off season plan was either badly misguided, or they started with a better plan to retool the pitching, but they implemented the plan badly. From the outside looking in, it has little rhyme or reason. The explanations that I am reading are strained rationalizations. It's like fixing the tires and brakes on an old clunker that needs a full engine tuneup. It's not going to run any better.

 

Ok, although I don't agree with you, I'm not going to deny your argument. The SP is a concern. I think our expectations just differ on what we expect from the staff. Which is not really a big deal.

[BSN07]

Felix may be a pipe dream.But it's slowly becoming less of one. As long as he doesn't sign an extension he's going to be available via trade or in 2 seasons via free agency. That's just fact. IMO I think it's very unlikely he will sign an extension with either Seattle or the team that trades for him. Someone will have to seriously over pay to get him to walk away so close to free agency.So I would rather they wait for him to hit FA.

 

Another fact is Lackey, Dempster and Lester could all be off the books after '14. And they have a s*** ton of money free by then. So they will have the cash to do it.

[dupree]

King Felix would be awesome. But one ace pitcher is not going to mean much when they have no one to go with him. An ace can only carry you so far. I would love to see him be in a Boston uniform. But he has to have the supporting cast to go along with him. Baseball is a team sport and we need to cast to go with an Ace. Lester has the potential to be that ace and it remains to be seen if he can return to form. Buch is a nice #2to starter and i think if we add a nice #3 starter via trade with Lackey Dempster and Doubrant filling in the #4 and #5 spots we will be alright and a capable staff. I think too many posters on here are wanting the big head line name and big splash to think just because on paper we will contend. Thats not the way baseball works. The sabermetrics will take an analysts so far but it cant anticipate a turn around or change in a pitcher abilities. It can only show what the norms of that player has done previously and what their projected career decline could possibly be or when a change of scenery could do to a players stats. I myself wanted a big splash signing this season and i am in no way condoning the moves that the FO has made. But im more on the thinking of a wait and see scenario with how this group can mesh and how the staff does. Im hoping for the best and i think as a fan of the red sox we have to have hope and want them to do good if not we wouldnt be having this conversation.