With Napoli signed, what is the line up?

[a700hitter]

If Middlebrooks comes out of the gate and hits similar to how he left off last year I like this a lot. Though, it'll be interesting to see what Drew can do as well. If Drew were to start hitting too I'd probably move him up to that 7 slot and move them down to 9. Either way, something similar to this would probably be best.

The offense will be just fine if Ortiz has 2 sound legs.

[a700hitter]

People pay too much attention to the offense because it is "sexy".

[Dojji]

I think this is the least sexy offense we've had in years.

 

I'm legitimately worried about our ability to outscore our defensive problems this year. We've had several key offensive downgrades since the World Series.

[Behindenemylines]

I think the top four are set: Ellsbury, Victorino, Pedroia and Papi.

The all important protection for Ortiz is question that needs to be answered.

Do you have Napoli or Middlebrooks?

The bottom of the order will depend on what pitcher they face because you are dealing with lefty and righty matchups.

[jung]

The combined weight of the offense (run production) and defense (run prevention in all its forms) has been where I have focused a number of posts this offseason. I don't think we will be able to score enough to keep up with the really potent offenses and won't pitch well enough to win the low scoring games. It does really look like a team stuck in the middle to me. I have picked them for 3rd in the East struggling to stay out of 4th and I think that is where they are going to end up.

 

A guy like Morcom may well help the pitching. However I don't view a Morcom as enough to make a significant dent in the dynamic I just described and that I think we are likely to see played out time and again this season.

[RedSoxNC84]

What if Lester is 15-10 with a 4.15 ERA and 200 innings and Buchholz is 13-7 with a 3.85 ERA over 195 innings, where would that put the team, because I would be very happy to get that production out of them?

 

Seems more reasonable to expect.

 

Lackey posting a sub 4 ERA would be nothing short of a miracle.

 

Although I believe it was SFF that said when Napoli caught Lackey, Lackey posted a mid 3's ERA something like 300 innings.. That sounded great, until Napoli decided to have old man hips.

[RedSoxNC84]

I think the top four are set: Ellsbury, Victorino, Pedroia and Papi.

The all important protection for Ortiz is question that needs to be answered.

Do you have Napoli or Middlebrooks?

The bottom of the order will depend on what pitcher they face because you are dealing with lefty and righty matychups.

 

If Ortiz bat third, he would have one of Pedroia, Middlebrooks, or maybe Napoli. Personally I like the idea of Pedroia giving Ortiz better protection

[Klare]

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Middlebrooks

Ortiz

Napoli

Salty

Victorino

Kalish

Drew

[SoxSport]

People pay too much attention to the offense because it is "sexy".

 

One of the main reasons I don't like the Red Sox organization is because they place too much importance on offense-I mean, big ball offense. Not enough importance on pitching, defense and small ball--including stolen bases. For a few years, they even got away from OBP and walks--which made them even worse. Look at Ellsbury. The guy leads off, and doesn't know how to take a walk. He's never been taught.

 

I still see them as basically a one dimensional team--which is why nobody in baseball likes them right now. Farrell will have to change that to succeed.

[SoxSport]

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Middlebrooks

Ortiz

Napoli

Salty

Victorino

Kalish

Drew

 

Switch Vic and MBrooks. Salty lower. Vic always batted 2nd in Philly. MBrooks is a key player in the middle of the lineup this year. He has to hit for power and a decent BA.

 

If Vic doesn't bat 1st, 2nd or 9th, it will be a sign the Red Sox won't be using his speed properly. Don't be surprised, though Farrell likes speed.

[SoxSport]

If Ortiz bat third, he would have one of Pedroia, Middlebrooks, or maybe Napoli. Personally I like the idea of Pedroia giving Ortiz better protection

 

that top 4 should do it. Ells, Vic, Pedey, Papi. If Ells shows power again, they should consider dropping him to 3rd.

[User Name]

One of the main reasons I don't like the Red Sox organization is because they place too much importance on offense-I mean, big ball offense. Not enough importance on pitching, defense and small ball--including stolen bases. For a few years, they even got away from OBP and walks--which made them even worse. Look at Ellsbury. The guy leads off, and doesn't know how to take a walk. He's never been taught.

 

I still see them as basically a one dimensional team--which is why nobody in baseball likes them right now. Farrell will have to change that to succeed.

 

That's why they signed Victorino right? And Jacoby Ellsbury's .349 career OBP and 48 BB/season average are both higher than the average MLB leadoff man. Where do you come up with this stuff?

[Dojji]

That's why they signed Victorino right? And Jacoby Ellsbury's .349 career OBP and 48 BB/season average are both higher than the average MLB leadoff man. Where do you come up with this stuff?

 

Selection bias. We get to watch the highlights of every time smallball actually works for other teams, and get to watch every time it succeeds or fails here. Since smallbail always fails to produce a run significantly more often than it succeeds (as does every method of run creation) the impression created is that everyone is better at small-ball run creation than we are.

 

Every team has the same perception issues within its own fanbase.

 

Personally I don't care that much about smallball, except that I'd ask the team to be willing to try it down close and late like any team would. I consider the concept a bit overrated as a backlash to the concept of moneyball, and that makes me reluctant to take it seriously.

 

Beyond that, I only have two questions from a team.

 

First, how are you going to create runs? And I find here that it's almost better to have one winning strategy, nail it down, bring it home and make it yours, than to be able to score in multiple ways.

 

I don't give a toot if your team is fast or slow, if you're playing an OBP and doubles offense in a doubles park, like we did in 03-07. you will score runs. If you play a home run offense in a home run park, you will score runs. And if you play a shooot-the-gap-and-run offense in a shoot-the-gap-and-run park, like the big ones out west, you'll score runs there too. Just have a strategy and know how you're going to get the players you have to carry out that strategy. The method itself makes surprisingly little difference as long as your players can execute it.

 

An second and just as obviously, how are you going to prevent runs? This is where I think this team has dropped the ball since at least 08. They simply never manage to replace what they lost when Curt Schilling was done, and the defense has gotten worse and not better. This is the one area where I really agree with SoxSport. The team needs to recommit itself to playing a complete defensive game, and not just think "his bat makes up for his glove." On. Every. Position.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Shut your mouth User Name! You may not be allowed to be realistic and ruin a poster's pessimism.

[Lucienbel]

Selection bias. We get to watch the highlights of every time smallball actually works for other teams, and get to watch every time it succeeds or fails here. Since smallbail always fails to produce a run significantly more often than it succeeds (as does every method of run creation) the impression created is that everyone is better at small-ball run creation than we are.

 

Every team has the same perception issues within its own fanbase.

 

Great point.

 

Any while I agree that the Red Sox don't small ball a whole lot or build their team around small ball, it really doesn't make a ton of sense for them to do that. With the way Fenway is, you don't really have to get creative to score runs. The ball gets out of the park pretty easy there and they build their team to that.

 

Farrell showed in Toronto that he wasn't afraid to run and small ball in the right situations too. Personally, this was one of the things he displayed better up there when he was there. With Ells and Victorino the Red Sox will be able to do the same when the situation warrants. It just seems that in Fenway it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to run into outs when you have such a good place to swing hard.

[Lucienbel]

Selection bias. We get to watch the highlights of every time smallball actually works for other teams, and get to watch every time it succeeds or fails here. Since smallbail always fails to produce a run significantly more often than it succeeds (as does every method of run creation) the impression created is that everyone is better at small-ball run creation than we are.

 

Every team has the same perception issues within its own fanbase.

 

Great point.

 

Any while I agree that the Red Sox don't small ball a whole lot or build their team around small ball, it really doesn't make a ton of sense for them to do that. With the way Fenway is, you don't really have to get creative to score runs. The ball gets out of the park pretty easy there and they build their team to that.

 

Farrell showed in Toronto that he wasn't afraid to run and small ball in the right situations too. Personally, this was one of the things he displayed better up there when he was there. With Ells and Victorino the Red Sox will be able to do the same when the situation warrants. It just seems that in Fenway it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to run into outs when you have such a good place to swing hard most times.

[Dojji]

In 03 sure, they built for the home run. As time went on though you saw a slight change in strategy, and I think the 07 team was built not so much around pitching, defense and the 3 run HR, as pitching, OBP, and the two run double. Lot of 15-20 HR, 35-40 double hitters in that lineup. Lowell, Pedroia, Youk all spring to mind pretty quickly as hitters who created more runs by means of a double off the monster than a big fly.

 

Considering that Fenway is an OK power park, but THE premiere doubles park in the nation, I can get behind the strategy.

[User Name]

The current roster is a bit more geared towards balance, with some speed and contact guys, some power guys, and some all-rounders.

[SoxSport]

"Smallball" is getting on base as a priority--and moving baserunners.

 

That means the leadoff batter of an inning is trying to get on base. Taking a lot of pitches. Walking if possible.

 

The next batter up is trying to move the baserunner. By walking, by hitting to the opposite field, etc. Whatever the game situation dictates.

 

This approach is 10 times more important in the late innings of a close game. And even more so on the road, when scoring runs is tougher.

 

In recent years, I have watched Red Sox players lead off in late innings of close games swinging from their heels, not taking pitches--trying to get on base. Playing as individuals, not as a team.

 

I have watched as Tito's teams sneered at stolen bases--allowing them liberally to other teams and not using them as part of their own offense when warranted. Without that famous stolen base by Roberts, the Red Sox don't beat the Yankees in '04, and don't get to the World Series. Quickly forgotten.

 

Smallball is really all about team play. Maybe that's what one ex-ballplayer/announcer meant during a TV game two years ago when Crawford was struggling. The Red Sox have a lot of talent, he said, but they are not really a team.

[Bellhorn04]

Tito didn't like to bunt, but he did like the stolen base. In 2008 we had 3 guys with 20 or more steals and 4 guys with at least 12.

[Lucienbel]

"Smallball" is getting on base as a priority--and moving baserunners.

 

That means the leadoff batter of an inning is trying to get on base. Taking a lot of pitches. Walking if possible.

 

The next batter up is trying to move the baserunner. By walking, by hitting to the opposite field, etc. Whatever the game situation dictates.

 

This approach is 10 times more important in the late innings of a close game. And even more so on the road, when scoring runs is tougher.

 

In recent years, I have watched Red Sox players lead off in late innings of close games swinging from their heels, not taking pitches--trying to get on base. Playing as individuals, not as a team.

 

I have watched as Tito's teams sneered at stolen bases--allowing them liberally to other teams and not using them as part of their own offense when warranted. Without that famous stolen base by Roberts, the Red Sox don't beat the Yankees in '04, and don't get to the World Series. Quickly forgotten.

 

Smallball is really all about team play. Maybe that's what one ex-ballplayer/announcer meant during a TV game two years ago when Crawford was struggling. The Red Sox have a lot of talent, he said, but they are not really a team.

 

I don't think that is 100% the teams fault then either, probably just the individuals that are doing it as you said. They've gone out and picked up some guys that do exactly what you said when referring to small ball. I'd beg to say that some of the patience and fundamentals left this team when all those "superstars" got plugged like that and so they just went out there and tried to hit one out every time. Seems silly, but definitely seems like what a lot of guys were doing the last few years.

 

In 03 sure, they built for the home run. As time went on though you saw a slight change in strategy, and I think the 07 team was built not so much around pitching, defense and the 3 run HR, as pitching, OBP, and the two run double. Lot of 15-20 HR, 35-40 double hitters in that lineup. Lowell, Pedroia, Youk all spring to mind pretty quickly as hitters who created more runs by means of a double off the monster than a big fly.

 

Considering that Fenway is an OK power park, but THE premiere doubles park in the nation, I can get behind the strategy.

 

Agree completely. This is a good strength to build to as it's something fairly reliable at home games.