Red Sox Offseason Ideas

[rjortiz]

He'll be lucky to get over 4/60M. He's pricing himself too high.

 

If he's available at that price, the Red Sox should be all over him.

[Palodios]

He'll be lucky to get over 4/60M. He's pricing himself too high.

 

He compares similarly to Josh Willingham, who is around the same age, same career OBP/OPS numbers, with somewhat better defense. Willingham got 3/21 million. Swisher is looking at 50-80.

 

If that tells me anything, it says that Swisher is going to be a rip off.

[Behindenemylines]

We got to stop this Swisher thing, let it go. When the pressure of the playoffs are on he has never produced for the $pankees. His numbers are inflated by playing in Yankee Stadium and having the lineup around that he did. Just say NOOOOOOOO!

[redsoxfan3]

He compares similarly to Josh Willingham, who is around the same age, same career OBP/OPS numbers, with somewhat better defense. Willingham got 3/21 million. Swisher is looking at 50-80.

 

If that tells me anything, it says that Swisher is going to be a rip off.

 

I agree that he is very comparable to Josh Willingham. Willingham's average annual salary is seven million. The Yankees are prepared to offer Swisher a 13.5 million qualifying offer. I realize that Swisher is looking at 50-80, but how many years does he want for the price? The 13.5 million qualifying offer is inflated for a one year contract purpose. I doubt it is possible, but if we can sign Swisher for three to five years in the range of 30-55 million, then I say that might be an okay price range. He is only 31. I like the fact that he can play 1B and the OF. I do agree with you that he will probably be a rip off. He is going to get more than what he is worth. If the price is right, then I am okay with signing him.

 

We got to stop this Swisher thing, let it go. When the pressure of the playoffs are on he has never produced for the $pankees. His numbers are inflated by playing in Yankee Stadium and having the lineup around that he did. Just say NOOOOOOOO!

 

This is an offseason idea thread. Swisher is a FA and is a potential FA target for the Red Sox. Stop telling people to "let it go." You don't want Swisher, you have clearly stated that. Don't tell other people not to discuss the idea of signing him. People can talk about what they want in this thread, especially when it is relevant. His numbers are not inflated by playing at Yankee Stadium. He has had career numbers in Chicago and Oakland that are similar to the numbers he has put up in New York, not to mention Oakland is not as hitter friendly as New York. To say his numbers are inflated in New York where he has had four consecutive 120 OPS+ seasons is not necessarily true when he had two 120 OPS+ seasons in Oakland. He has proven that he can hit in other ballparks. Swisher is a switch hitter, so he could use the Green Moster to his advantage when he bats RH. If the price is right, I don't see why anyone would not want to give Swisher an opportunity with his ability to play 1B and in the OF. The last time I checked, we need a 1B and a LF.

[mvp 78]

3/$55 for Swisher? You think he's worth $18M?

[redsoxfan3]

3/$55 for Swisher? You think he's worth $18M?

 

I said three to five years in the range of 30-55 million. I guess I should elaborate more. I am thinking three for 30 to 33 million or at the most five for 40-55 million. Obviously I would like the cheapest price, but 11 million per year is probably a lot per year, but that is the most that I would be willing to spend on him.

[jacksonianmarch]

Swisher is going to get $15 mil a season from some sucker. He's a stat padder who sucks in the clutch.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Swisher is going to get $15 mil a season from some sucker. He's a stat padder who sucks in the clutch.

 

I wouldn't doubt that at all. But 5/75mm is a far cry from Werth's $130mm.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think that is exactly the deal he gets, 5/75.

[SoxFanForsyth]

This is an offseason idea thread. Swisher is a FA and is a potential FA target for the Red Sox. Stop telling people to "let it go." You don't want Swisher, you have clearly stated that. Don't tell other people not to discuss the idea of signing him. People can talk about what they want in this thread, especially when it is relevant. His numbers are not inflated by playing at Yankee Stadium. He has had career numbers in Chicago and Oakland that are similar to the numbers he has put up in New York, not to mention Oakland is not as hitter friendly as New York. To say his numbers are inflated in New York where he has had four consecutive 120 OPS+ seasons is not necessarily true when he had two 120 OPS+ seasons in Oakland. He has proven that he can hit in other ballparks. Swisher is a switch hitter, so he could use the Green Moster to his advantage when he bats RH. If the price is right, I don't see why anyone would not want to give Swisher an opportunity with his ability to play 1B and in the OF. The last time I checked, we need a 1B and a LF.

 

You could have just shown his splits.

 

2012:

 

Home: .834 OPS, 11 HR (76 games)

Away: .841 OPS, 13 HR (72 games)

 

2011:

 

Home: .853 OPS, 12 HR (75 games)

Away: .792 OPS, 11 HR (75 games)

 

2010:

 

Home: .854 OPS, 15 HR (75 games)

Away: .885 OPS, 14 HR (75 games)

 

Total:

 

Home: .848 OPS, 38 HR (226 Games)

Away: .841 OPS, 38 HR (222 Games)

 

By no means am I advocating signing him to anything that would cost more than $12-13mm AAV, I'm simply just showing he's not a product of Yankee Stadium.

[jacksonianmarch]

He is definitely not a product of YS. He is most definitely a guy who can easily be pitched to and struggles in the clutch or the postseason. He is the worst postseason player in Yankee history, and they've been in a lot of postseasons

[redsoxfan3]

You could have just shown his splits.

 

2012:

 

Home: .834 OPS, 11 HR (76 games)

Away: .841 OPS, 13 HR (72 games)

 

2011:

 

Home: .853 OPS, 12 HR (75 games)

Away: .792 OPS, 11 HR (75 games)

 

2010:

 

Home: .854 OPS, 15 HR (75 games)

Away: .885 OPS, 14 HR (75 games)

 

By no means am I advocating signing him to anything that would cost more than $12-13mm AAV, I'm simply just showing he's not a product of Yankee Stadium.

 

That is true. I was on my phone and did not feel like looking at stats. I just went with what I already knew from his time in Oakland. Thank you for helping me prove my point. I agree with you. I think even 10-11 per year is a lot, but like jackso said, someone will probably offer him a ridiculous contract in desperation to sign him. Let's just hope we do not offer him more than 10-11 a year.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think that is exactly the deal he gets, 5/75.

 

Yeah that's what I'm guessing too. Too much for my taste.

[Palodios]

I don't know if anyone pointed this out, but Anibal Sanchez is only 28 years old. A four-five year deal would go straight through his prime. And since he won't cost a draft pick, that certainly helps too.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sanchez has consistently shown good stuff and #3 level production with the potential to eat innings. He is a real success story for guys coming back from labral tears. 195IP for 3 straight yrs should keep teams from worrying. Seeing as he starts next yr at age 29, I would say he could net the second longest deal for a pitcher this off-season, behind Greinke. I'd say a 5-7 yr deal is going to be what he would demand. And for his production, I think a 6yr $90-$100 mil deal is in his future

[bubbakeg52]

Sanchez is a great idea for a number 3 starter. I would like to see the Sox also acquire Lincecum in a 3 team trade (SF,BOS,NYM). Depending on Atl's situation with McCann. Trade Doubrount, Ellsbury(SF),and Saltlamachia (NYM) for Lincecum and an maybe Davis from the Mets. Then sign McCann to replace Salty.

 

SS Drew (12)

2b Pedroia

3b Middlebrooks

OF Upton (15)

DH Ortiz

OF Hunter (12)

OF Ross

C McCann

1b Davis

 

SP Lincecum (22)

SP Bucholz

SP Lester

SP Sanchez (15)

SP Lackey

 

Only 76 added and Lackey/Ortiz gone in 2 years only 30 subtracted. Not to mention 15-20 saved with Ellsbury gone. Hunter will be a gap for Bradley. Upton will be moved over to LF for Ross' departure.

 

Good enough to get to WS 13!!

[SoxFanForsyth]

Sanchez is a great idea for a number 3 starter. I would like to see the Sox also acquire Lincecum in a 3 team trade (SF,BOS,NYM). Depending on Atl's situation with McCann. Trade Doubrount, Ellsbury(SF),and Saltlamachia (NYM) for Lincecum and an maybe Davis from the Mets. Then sign McCann to replace Salty.

 

SS Drew (12)

2b Pedroia

3b Middlebrooks

OF Upton (15)

DH Ortiz

OF Hunter (12)

OF Ross

C McCann

1b Davis

 

SP Lincecum (22)

SP Bucholz

SP Lester

SP Sanchez (15)

SP Lackey

 

Only 76 added and Lackey/Ortiz gone in 2 years only 30 subtracted. Not to mention 15-20 saved with Ellsbury gone. Hunter will be a gap for Bradley. Upton will be moved over to LF for Ross' departure.

 

Good enough to get to WS 13!!

 

Sox would never, ever get both Lincecum and Ike Davis for Salty, Ells, and Doubie.

 

The Sox couldn't get Ike alone for that deal.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Happy Offseason Day everyone!!!

 

Finally, this season can be officially put to rest. As if we weren't pondering enough moves already, now we can really rip this offseason open and start making ridiculous trade proposals and out of the box FA moves.

 

The Sox have a lot of work to do over the next 2-3 months. Lets see what Cherrington is all about.

[Station 13]

Sox would never, ever get both Lincecum and Ike Davis for Salty, Ells, and Doubie.

 

The Sox couldn't get Ike alone for that deal.

 

I wouldn't trade Doubront straight up for Davis.

[Station 13]

MLBTR arb. projection

 

 

Jacoby Ellsbury - $8.1MM

Andrew Bailey - $3.9MM

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - $3.9MM

Alfredo Aceves - $2.6MM

Craig Breslow - $2.4MM

Ryan Sweeney - $1.8MM

Daniel Bard - $1.6MM

Andrew Miller - $1.4MM

Franklin Morales - $1.4MM

Rich Hill - $1.1MM

Scott Atchison - $800K

[SoxFanForsyth]

MLBTR arb. projection

 

 

Jacoby Ellsbury - $8.1MM

Andrew Bailey - $3.9MM

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - $3.9MM

Alfredo Aceves - $2.6MM

Craig Breslow - $2.4MM

Ryan Sweeney - $1.8MM

Daniel Bard - $1.6MM

Andrew Miller - $1.4MM

Franklin Morales - $1.4MM

Rich Hill - $1.1MM

Scott Atchison - $800K

 

Cots has Atchison arb eligible in 2015 for the first time. Tazawa, however, is arb eligible this year. Wonder if they got them mixed up?

 

Either way, that's $29mm in arbitration expenses, which is about what most of us expected (I had it estimated at $30mm I think).

 

That puts the Sox at 74.6mm in payroll. Tack on $12.5mm for Ortiz and $7mm for Ross, and the Sox are at $94.1mm going into FA.

 

That also has a roster as follows:

 

SP: Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Doubront, SLOT

RP: Bard, Bailey, Miller, Breslow, Atchison, Aceves, Tazawa

C: Lavarnway

1B: SLOT

2B: Pedroia

SS: Iglesias

3B: Middlebrooks

LF: Kalish

CF: Ellsbury

RF: Ross

DH: Ortiz

 

Bench: Salty, Ciriaco, Sweeney, Sands

 

So essentially, they have $94mm locked up and 2 slots that have to be filled.

 

They certainly have to upgrade at a whole lot more than just 1 SP and 1B to be competitive next year, but that's the picture that I see as of 10/29.

[SeanJohn93]

Justin Smoak would be a nice change of scenery guy for the Sox. He might be able to live up to his high prospect status due to the friendly confines of Fenway Park. Plus, recent players who have left Seattle have gone on to have a rejuvenated career. (Adrian Beltre with Red Sox and Rangers Ichiro with Yankees) Also the Mariners would not be in the position to ask for top prospects for Smoak

[bubbakeg52]

"Sox would never, ever get both Lincecum and Ike Davis for Salty, Ells, and Doubie.

 

The Sox couldn't get Ike alone for that deal. "

So your saying Doubie sucks in the rotation, "Station 13". What about this idea? Boston should trade (maybe 3 team deal) Ellsbury, Salty and Doubie for Josh Johnson and sign Anibal Sanchez.

 

Sign McCann or Napoli

Sign Victorino (CF) and Hunter (RF)

Sign Drew

 

SS Drew

2B Pedroia

3B Middlebrooks

DH Ortiz

LF Ross

RF Hunter

1B Napoli

C Lavarnway

CF Victorino

 

SP Johnson

SP Lester

SP Bucholz

SP Sanchez

SP Lackey

[bubbakeg52]

Cots has Atchison arb eligible in 2015 for the first time. Tazawa, however, is arb eligible this year. Wonder if they got them mixed up?

 

Either way, that's $29mm in arbitration expenses, which is about what most of us expected (I had it estimated at $30mm I think).

 

That puts the Sox at 74.6mm in payroll. Tack on $12.5mm for Ortiz and $7mm for Ross, and the Sox are at $94.1mm going into FA.

 

That also has a roster as follows:

 

SP: Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Doubront, SLOT

RP: Bard, Bailey, Miller, Breslow, Atchison, Aceves, Tazawa

C: Lavarnway

1B: SLOT

2B: Pedroia

SS: Iglesias

3B: Middlebrooks

LF: Kalish

CF: Ellsbury

RF: Ross

DH: Ortiz

 

Bench: Salty, Ciriaco, Sweeney, Sands

 

So essentially, they have $94mm locked up and 2 slots that have to be filled.

 

They certainly have to upgrade at a whole lot more than just 1 SP and 1B to be competitive next year, but that's the picture that I see as of 10/29.

 

The only thing your right about is fixing 1st base and 1 SP. SS is going to be fixed according to your GM office. LF is going to be fixed and CF can be fixed especially with the abundance of outfielders on the market this year. They can spend 66 mil and that would put them at 150 about 25 under the cap. Not to mention 37 mil comming off the books in 2 years with Ross, Ortiz, and Lackey. 66 mil can be laid on the table without worrying. 66 mil down and about 66 mil comming back in 2015 because of short term deals that are about 3 years/ 4 years incentive.

[Station 13]

Cots has Atchison arb eligible in 2015 for the first time. Tazawa, however, is arb eligible this year. Wonder if they got them mixed up?

.

 

Atchison was a super 2.

 

Tazawa made 900K this year, so w/ or w/out arbitration he will make arbitration salaries.

[iortiz]

Well,

 

What do we really have on the field?

 

Well... we have a

 

2B Peddy

3B WB

CF Ells

and arguably a SS with Ciriaco.

 

So.. you need a 1B,C, DH, RF and a LF.

 

Get Napoli, Bourne, McCann, Swisher and resign Ortiz and Ross (Backup OF).

 

Pitching?

 

As I've been saying you need 2 SP, it is a must.

 

So...

 

Sign Haren and Peavy/Lohse.

 

So..

You have

 

Haren

Peavy/Lohse

Buch

Lester

Lackey

Felix (Depth)

 

BP?

 

You have Morales, Hill, Miller, Aceves (I would keep him), Bailey (Hopefully he improves), Tazawa and that's it.

[Station 13]

"Sox would never, ever get both Lincecum and Ike Davis for Salty, Ells, and Doubie.

 

The Sox couldn't get Ike alone for that deal. "

So your saying Doubie sucks in the rotation, "Station 13". What about this idea? Boston should trade (maybe 3 team deal) Ellsbury, Salty and Doubie for Josh Johnson and sign Anibal Sanchez.

 

Sign McCann or Napoli

Sign Victorino (CF) and Hunter (RF)

Sign Drew

 

SS Drew

2B Pedroia

3B Middlebrooks

DH Ortiz

LF Ross

RF Hunter

1B Napoli

C Lavarnway

CF Victorino

 

SP Johnson

SP Lester

SP Bucholz

SP Sanchez

SP Lackey

 

Terrible. Johnson has an injured riddle career.

[bubbakeg52]

Terrible. Johnson has an injured riddle career.

 

Johnson was the same as Beckett and Sanchez when it comes to injury.

[Station 13]

Johnson was the same as Beckett and Sanchez when it comes to injury.

 

Johnson is due to make $13M and becomes a FA.

 

If you trade Ellsbury and Doubront, it has to be for a younger starter who is under control. I wouldn't trade Doubront straight up for Johnson.

[bubbakeg52]

Sit back and look at what's on the table for the future now.

Lincecum and Johnson are both available in 2014.

Not to mention trade deadline in 2013 can lose these guys. The fact they would be cheaper now and you sign one of them for 5 years at a discount and keep one of them from becomming abr eligible now is better odds of landing the most quality value.