Red Sox Offseason Ideas

[Plumpamania]

I was listening to my favorite radio program "The Herd" and on Friday I heard a WEEI representative (I forget the name forgive me), say that the Red Sox need to sign Mike Napoli.

 

This really kicked me into a full set of ideas of what the Sox should do, for the first time in years.

 

For the first and foremost -- we obviously need a manager and after the last year here, any free agent will want to know who the skipper is first before inking on the dotted line. Between that and understanding that we do not have to spend like the Yankees to beat the Yankees is huge. I'm sure a good look at Epstein's last few signings has been gone over in detail here previously (again I haven't looked) and we need to veer away from any notion that that is a good idea.

 

I'm just going to kick start straight into my ideas -- of course attempting to keep things logical and away from the late 90's early 00's Yankee and Red Sox fans ideas that we would get any free agent we want.

 

Current depth chart of potential starters currently under contract for next year:

C - Saltalamacchia

1B - Lavarnway

2B - Pedroia

SS - Aviles

3B - Middlebrooks

LF - Nava

CF - Ellsbury

RF - Kalish

DH - n/a

SP - Lester

SP - Buchholtz

SP - Morales

SP - Lackey

SP - Aceves

MR - Miller

MR - Dubront

MR - Bard

MR - Breslow

MR - Tazawa

CL - Bailey

 

First and foremost, I love the depth of our bullpen. Andrew Miller, coming off of a 40.1 IP 3.35 ERA season, is one of the first guys I want in it. He was consistent, and a solid lefty to come out of the pen.

 

Tazawa is an absolute must in the pen next year. 44 IP and a 1.43 ERA. One of the brightest spots we had last year.

 

Craig Breslow will be our LOOGY.

 

Felix Doubront needs to be moved to the pen as the long man. He simply wasn't good this past year. Before anyone says "my gosh he was a rookie", "he struck out a lot of hitters!" - look at the stats. Yes he struck out 9.3 hitters per 9 IP, he also walked 4 hitters per 9 IP and had an ERA+ of 89, well below average. He simply won't cut it as a starting pitcher in the bigs. I wouldn't mind seeing what he does as a long man/spot starter.

 

Daniel Bard deserves to not be screwed with and given a full year out of the pen.

 

Andrew Bailey was coming off of surgery and has a track record. We also gave up a solid prospect that lead the A's into the playoffs for him. Gotta give him the ball and tell him to earn it.

 

Our rotation needs the most work, without question. If John Farrell were to return, I think we do see a change in both Buccholtz and Lester, but we still need to add some solid arms to the rotation. Our 4/5 should be Morales/Lackey. We need to add some arms here.

 

The one guy who I'd want more than anyone else coming of availability - due to effectiveness combined with possible contract is Scott Baker.

 

Off of Fangraphs.com, writer Brandon Warne stated the following about Scott Baker (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/scott-baker-most-underrated-hurler-in-the-bigs/):

 

"Why exactly do I think Baker is underrated? It really has nothing to do with the fact that he plays in my backyard, to be honest. He’s just 42 innings shy of qualifying for the 1,000 innings leaderboard at B-Ref, and he has a better career whiff rate than Edwin Jackson, Ervin Santana, Chris Carpenter, and Roy Halladay. He has a better career K/BB than Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver, Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia, and Josh Beckett. In my view, one or the other would be worth blowing off as veritable statistical noise; plenty of guys get the whiffs and walk a ton of guys, and by the same token, guys like Carlos Silva and Carl Pavano make careers out of not whiffing anyone but being extraordinarily stingy on the free pass. Baker, however, does both, and at least to me isn’t regarded even among the 50 or so best starters in the game.

 

How does Baker fly under the radar? Well for one, he doesn’t have swing-and-miss stuff. He won’t show up in any of the posts we’ve had or will have this week on best pitches, and he’s not really in the discussion for any of them either.

 

Indeed, he gets the whiffs (7.2 career per 9, 8.2 in ‘11), but he does so with almost surgical command of a 91 mph heater, and some pretty ordinary offspeed stuff. He’s also been plagued a bit by injuries, only once reaching 200 innings/30-plus starts, but three seasons out of four above 170 innings means he’s not Rich Harden, either."

 

Yes there is some injury concern, but even at 170 IP per season he provided a solid season as he got it together in 2011 with an ERA+ of 129, but was out last season with injury. There is an option the Twins have on him next year however. But if he's available I'd want to take a shot at him.

 

Zack Greinke shouldn't be viewed as a possibility in Boston. His mindset wouldn't work with the press nor the fan base.

 

Ryan Dempster wilted in the AL, and proved to be an NL only pitcher.

 

Edwin Jackson is a free agent again, but with Scott Boras in tow, not an option for our 2013 roster.

 

Tim Hudson has an option on him, but he's a guy who might be the glue guy we need in the rotation. He has American League experience, is a proven starter, and would lead Lester and Buccholtz in the right directions.

 

Kyle Lohse is a free agent that shouldn't even be considered for Boston. He's a classic contract year pitcher.

 

Franscisco Liriano is a free agent going off on name only - a no touch.

 

A big time guy flying under the radar that for the right price might equate out to what we want is Colby Lewis. Colby Lewis came back from Japan and was Texas' legit ace and big game pitcher for the playoffs. With his groundball stuff, would be a great fit for Fenway.

 

Jake Peavy has an option that Kenny Williams is most assuredly going to decline at the end of the year and had a huge come back year and isn't on the wrong side of 32 yet. With swing and miss stuff - a good leader as well - a good fit for the Sox.

 

Brandon McCarthy is the only other starter of name worth mentioning, but let's get him healthy after that scary incident earlier in the season.

 

If all pitchers are available by ranking of desire:

 

1. Peavy

2. Baker

3. Hudson

4. Lewis

 

Our line up needs two things that are musts. We need to resign Cody Ross and David Ortiz. Push Nava back to the #4 OF that he is and it gives us back our DH.

 

The big name position players this off season contain: CF Michael Bourn, CF Melky Cabrera, RF Torii Hunter, RF Ichiro Suzuki, RF Nick Swisher, CF BJ Upton, C Mike Napoli, 3B David Wright (option on him), 1B Mark Reynolds (has an option), SS Jason Barlett (has an option), SS Stephen Drew (has an option), 1B Lance Berkman, 1B Adam LaRoche (has an option).

 

The best name in the group is David Wright who we'd have swap Middlebrooks to 1B for and pay a HUGE amount for. David is a solid character guy and middle of the line up threat, but not for the price he will probably get in free agency. He's worth checking in on and driving up the price for someone else, but no -- I wouldn't want to sign David Wright.

 

The rest of the free agents are either waiting to be severly overpaid -- IE: Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher -- or at the end of the line IE: Ichiro Suzuki, Torii Hunter.

 

What we really need to look at is 1B (sorry Ryan Lavarnway). But there are no solid free agent options there. Which means the trade market. Like Lavarnway there are some other guys out there who may be late bloomers -- Matt Gamel should be looked at possibly from Milwaukee. But sadly there is no other market for any decent 1B. Justin Smoak with his .210/.290/.364 line is out there, but not wanted by me. I'd be fine sticking with Lavarnway.

 

Next year won't be pretty. But if we can make the necessary changes to our rotation - keep a line up healthy it would look like:

 

1. CF Ellsbury

2. RF Kalish

3. 2B Pedroia

4. DH Ortiz

5. LF Ross

6. C Saltalamacchia

7. 3B Middlebrooks

8. 1B Lavarnway

9. SS Aviles

 

Don't expect the playoffs, but to build.

[TutGadol]

Without getting as deep into it as you went (Thats what she said), here are some ideas I'd like to see:

 

- Sign Napoli, for realzies: he's a beast at Fenway, he's a middle of the order right handed bat, he can spend some time catching and at first along with Salty and Lavarnway.

 

- Resign Paps: He deserves it, let him stay here as long as he's productive, he earned it, he's good in the clubhouse and he can handle the bat. Don't let him go, have some heart.

 

- Be creative with the rotation: Morales and Doubront could each be very productive for half of the season, before they tire out. Let them split a starter and a long relief role. Tazawa was so productive I'd like to see him start a little at spring, I wish they would let him do that last september but oh well. Based on scout reports and stats I think Alex Wilson can fill a role in the bullpen. He can throw mid 90s at short bursts, he'll only throw his fastball & slider, which would solve his lack of depth pitches, and he did put up very good numbers at AAA for two consecutive seasons. Could be a cheap right handed arm.

 

- How about Brad Asmus? : He had some managerial experience leading my guys to the world baseball classic, he's smart and the players will respect him (Respect was a real problem with Valentine). I think he could help Bard with whatever he's going through and help Salty and Lava improve as defensive catchers. I also think he would handle the media here better than most.

[TutGadol]

Edit: Sorry double post, please delete.

[Palodios]

I've been stressing this idea in a few places, but I think it would be in the Red Sox's best interest to trade John Lackey for Jason Bay and cash. Lackey could definitely succeed in the National League, and he's the last Theo-Fail contract left. Jason Bay is a perfect buy-low player who has done very well in his time at Fenway, and even if he continues to suffer from concussion symptoms, atleast his contract will be gone at the end of 2013, unlike Lackey's, who could haunt us for another three years.

1) Re-sign Ross and Papi.

2) Peavy/Haren/Johnson-- Get one of those guys.

3) Sanchez/ Marcum/ Ervin Santana/ Floyd/ Guthrie/ Mccarthy/ Dempster/ Kuroda/ Jackson/Lohse -- Get one of those guys.

4) Laroche/Pena/Berkman/Napoli/Swisher -- Get one of those guys for first base.

5) Add a real closer.

 

 

If done correctly, the Red Sox could be a playoff team and still be way under the luxury tax. Not easy, but not impossible either.

[Plumpamania]

I've been stressing this idea in a few places, but I think it would be in the Red Sox's best interest to trade John Lackey for Jason Bay and cash. Lackey could definitely succeed in the National League, and he's the last Theo-Fail contract left. Jason Bay is a perfect buy-low player who has done very well in his time at Fenway, and even if he continues to suffer from concussion symptoms, atleast his contract will be gone at the end of 2013, unlike Lackey's, who could haunt us for another three years.

1) Re-sign Ross and Papi.

2) Peavy/Haren/Johnson-- Get one of those guys.

3) Sanchez/ Marcum/ Ervin Santana/ Floyd/ Guthrie/ Mccarthy/ Dempster/ Kuroda/ Jackson/Lohse -- Get one of those guys.

4) Laroche/Pena/Berkman/Napoli/Swisher -- Get one of those guys for first base.

5) Add a real closer.

 

 

If done correctly, the Red Sox could be a playoff team and still be way under the luxury tax. Not easy, but not impossible either.

 

I'm not sure the Mets would do a deal like that after the Madoff scandal and their hardwork in shedding payroll. Not a bad idea however, and definitely one to take a look into.

 

1). YES!

2). Which Johnson are we talking about? I'd prefer Peavy then Haren though.

3). Which Sanchez, because if you mean Jonathan then with no offense I can't continue reading your post. Same with Edwin Jackson and Kyle Lohse, neither would fit in Fenway at all. Out of that list only Shawn Marcum interests me.

4). Swisher wants Jason Werth money. No. We had Adam LaRoche and let him go, he's getting a lot of money for a 32 year old 1B.

 

To go from the other post. Mike Napoli at 32 went back to career norms last year of a sub .850 OPS. I'd rather let Lavarnway have at it.

[Emmz]

Why are we even talking about these guys like Lohse/Dempster/Guthrie? Sounds like a recipe for building a really old and s***** starting rotation.

[redsoxfan3]

I'm not sure the Mets would do a deal like that after the Madoff scandal and their hardwork in shedding payroll. Not a bad idea however, and definitely one to take a look into.

 

1). YES!

2). Which Johnson are we talking about? I'd prefer Peavy then Haren though.

3). Which Sanchez, because if you mean Jonathan then with no offense I can't continue reading your post. Same with Edwin Jackson and Kyle Lohse, neither would fit in Fenway at all. Out of that list only Shawn Marcum interests me.

4). Swisher wants Jason Werth money. No. We had Adam LaRoche and let him go, he's getting a lot of money for a 32 year old 1B.

 

To go from the other post. Mike Napoli at 32 went back to career norms last year of a sub .850 OPS. I'd rather let Lavarnway have at it.

 

That is a great idea! Let's have Lavarnway, who is not even a 1B, start at 1B for us next year. Let's not forget how great of a hitter he was this past year. That .516 OPS will be killer for us.

 

All joking aside, that is a stupid idea. If we want him to play 1B for us in the future, we need for him to play in AAA next year so that he can learn the position and work on his offense. He is not ready to hit in the majors. He could revamp his swing and improve some this offseason, but the only way I see him in the majors is as a backup C or platoon C. I do not want someone who has no previous Major League experience playing 1B, especially since he proved this year that he was not solid offensively in the majors. Don't go on a tangent comparing him to Pedroia and how Pedroia hit poorly and came back the next year and was solid offensively. Not many people are comparable to Dustin. I am not saying it is impossible, but don't get your hopes up. If we are going to sacrifice a position for lack of offense, I want it to be with Iglesias at SS, who we know will be one of the best defensive SS's in all of baseball.

[Palodios]

Why are we even talking about these guys like Lohse/Dempster/Guthrie? Sounds like a recipe for building a really old and s***** starting rotation.

 

2). Which Johnson are we talking about? I'd prefer Peavy then Haren though.

3). Which Sanchez, because if you mean Jonathan then with no offense I can't continue reading your post. Same with Edwin Jackson and Kyle Lohse, neither would fit in Fenway at all. Out of that list only Shawn Marcum interests me.

4). Swisher wants Jason Werth money. No. We had Adam LaRoche and let him go, he's getting a lot of money for a 32 year old 1B.

 

The idea is that the Red Sox would look at those players, find the ones that are healthy, good fits and would accept the most reasonable contracts. I'm not singling out any specific player, just the type of players the Sox should look at. There are a lot of options... the Red Sox's scouts and sabermasters just need to find the best ones.

 

I was referring to Josh Johnson, and Anibal Sanchez.

 

Guthrie is 33 and has a 4.12 ERA in the AL East for seasons with 180-200 innings per year, so I think he could be a good affordable solution for the middle/back end of the rotation.

 

Laroche is a 30 HR/90 RBI hitter most years. Miguel Cabrera ain't walking through that door-- Laroche's numbers are exactly what this team could use. Name me a player that hits 30 HR and won't cost 10 million a year.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Couple things.

 

1. The more I think about it, the more I want to acquire our SP's via FA, not via trade, because I want to keep our youngsters for the core. Unless we can make a deal for a guy like Lee in a salary dump scenario and give up Doubront + Cecchini, and eat all the money, then I am not interested. I do think Shields hits FA, because $9mm for a SP with a lot of SP depth in the minors and a lot of offensive needs is not a wise way for them to spend money. Sign 2 of Shields/Haren/Peavy. Keep the kids.

 

2. Trade for Michael Morse. He's going into the final year of his contract. He's versatile to play LF and 1B, and hits for a ton of power.

 

3. Don't overpay, but see what you can get Nick Swisher for. If you can get him for 4/52, sign him. Anything over that, stay away.

 

4. Call the Angels and see what you need to give up to get Mark Trumbo. 1B is the main position where the Sox have very little or no depth in the minor leagues. So this is one of the positions you almost have to pay for.

[jung]

Should be interesting to see what Swisher gets. He might want Werth money but Werth was supposed to hit more HR's than he has hit and the potential for HR's is what boosted Werth's money IMO.

 

Napoli might provide the best value for the Sox as far as a guy that can fit here....maybe split time with Gomez and see where Gomez goes as well as splitting time with somebody behind the plate. Laroche could be interesting.

[example1]

If I'm the Sox, I would be thinking really hard about a guy like Justin Upton. I was thinking about him tonight as I watched Curtis Granderson. I remember when the Yankees got Granderson I thought it was a decent signing, but not a difference maker. He had some good numbers and some poor numbers, was relatively young, but was inconsistent in Detroit. Obviously, since then Granderson has been tremendous and fits nicely into the middle/bottom of that Yankees lineup making them a powerhouse.

 

It's easy to look at Upton's season and relative inconsistency and write him off as not worth investing in. However, we have to remember that he's going into his age 25 season. Granderson had 202 PAs going into his age 25 season. Upton has 3030 PAs already. I think he's the type of player the Sox would think about investing in even if it costs guys they would otherwise like to have.

 

Say they make Bogaerts and one or two of Webster, Barnes or De La Rosa (whoever they like the most) unavailable; leaving two of those pitchers, Jackie Bradley Jr, and almost everyone else available.

 

They would still have enough money to make a run at Ellsbury (or any significant FA, for that matter) and would give them a young offensive core of guys like Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, and Upton to build around moving forward.

 

I'm not convinced that Upton is the guy. I do think that he's relatively affordable, very young and might be cheaper than usual after a down season and rumors flying that he's done in Arizona. Yes, pitching is the #1 priority, but neglecting other needs because of a myopic focus on the #1 priority would be just as bad as not addressing #1 well.

[Palodios]

It's easy to look at Upton's season and relative inconsistency and write him off as not worth investing in. However, we have to remember that he's going into his age 25 season. Granderson had 202 PAs going into his age 25 season. Upton has 3030 PAs already. I think he's the type of player the Sox would think about investing in even if it costs guys they would otherwise like to have.

 

I'm not so sure. Austin Jackson had a 5.6 WAR this season. Ian Kennedy, 3.1. Granderson... 2.6 WAR.

 

These kinds of moves can be scary. When played have HOF ceilings, and are playing mediocre, those players still end up costing HOF-caliber hauls of prospects. Look at the Agon trade-- he was only 28, everyone said it would be great for him to get out of SD, and in a real lineup. Josh Beckett, cost Hanley and Anibal.

[DocHolliday]

Regarding Scott Baker, I agree that he would be a decent buy low candidate coming off injury. He certainly has much more upside than, say, Aaron Cook. He makes sense to be one of the retreads the Sox consider bringing in to compete for a rotation spot, assuming the Twins don't pick up his option for next season. But he shouldn't be looked at with any degree of certainty for a rotation spot going in. His elbow issues have plagued him in more seasons than this year.

 

Ironically, the player he compares to most, based on Baseball Reference's similarity scores, is former Red Sox pitcher Wade Miller. Easy to forget, but Miller spent time on the DL in his 1 season with the Red Sox and pitched to an ERA of around 5 when he was on the mound.

 

For me, Baker would be option 8 or 9 on that list of FA candidates for a rotation spot.

[DocHolliday]

Regarding Scott Baker, I agree that he would be a decent buy low candidate coming off injury. He certainly has much more upside than, say, Aaron Cook. He makes sense to be one of the retreads the Sox consider bringing in to compete for a rotation spot, assuming the Twins don't pick up his option for next season. But he shouldn't be looked at with any degree of certainty for a rotation spot going in. His elbow issues have plagued him in more seasons than this year.

 

Ironically, the player he compares to most, based on Baseball Reference's similarity scores, is former Red Sox pitcher Wade Miller. Easy to forget, but Miller spent time on the DL in his 1 season with the Red Sox and pitched to an ERA of around 5 when he was on the mound.

 

For me, Baker would be option 8 or 9 on that list of FA candidates for a rotation spot.

[Plumpamania]

I don't think going back into spending money is the right idea for what we need to be doing.

 

Regarding not wanting Lavarnway to be on the MLB roster, yes he did poor in his time up this year. He was also a rookie for all intensive purposes inside probably the worst clubhouse in MLB -- very hard to do much of anything successful in that environment -- Look at our MLB guys.

 

But last year when Tito was at the helm he did a .231/.302/.436/.738. Not stellar, but much better than anyone minus possibly Adam LaRoche walking through that door. Remember we traded Rizzo for Gonzalez who we used for B prospects at best. Then we gave away Lars Andersen -- not a solution but probably a decent stop gap.

 

The trade market will be very slim on 1B unless we make a trade for Kendrys Morales who turned in his second straight decline season (albeit coming off of a scary injury) with a .273/.320/.467/.787 line. And I'd only deal B prospects at best for him, but LAA seems pretty set with him as a DH with Trumbo in the OF.

 

Remember Scott Hatteberg, he couldn't play 1B either and helped lead the A's back to the playoffs. His soxprospects.com profile states

 

Scouting Report: High baseball IQ with solid catcher's frame. Average-to-slightly above-average contact potential and possesses above-average plate discipline. Slightly closed, crouched stance. Attacks mistake pitches, especially ones out and over the plate. Upper cut swing that produces a bit too much topspin at times. Solid-average-to-better power projection. Can drive the ball to all fields and uses lower body well in his swing. Likes to get arms extended, which leads to some struggles on the inside third. Needs work pulling hands in against inside fastballs at big league level. Tends to get eaten up by two-seamers from right-handed pitchers. Will be prone to striking out. Well below-average speed. Rough overall catching skills. Limited range behind the dish and slow reactions. Tends to stab at offerings, and his catching hand drifts when framing pitches. Average blocking skills, he needs to improve how he controls balls bouncing out in front of him and the fluidity of his footwork. Has made ample strides with his catch-and-release mechanics since joining the organization. Hard worker dedicated to honing craft. Despite improvements, catching skills are still limited. Will need to increase defensive versatility. Projects as a DH/part-time catcher at the major league level.

 

And let's stop kidding ourselves about Jose Iglesias. Unless we go to a full groundball pitching staff his defense isn't going to mean anything with a line of .200/.250/.250. Any one of us could grab a bat and have as much pure luck hitting as that guy. I'd take Mike Aviles any day of the week and wait for Xander Bogaerts. Iglesias shouldn't be anything more than a trade chip at this point. Let's send his happy self off to the Cubs to be with Epstein. He already recovered Rizzo there, let's give him Iglesias since we got screwed with compensation for him anyways.

[Plumpamania]

I don't think going back into spending money is the right idea for what we need to be doing.

 

Regarding not wanting Lavarnway to be on the MLB roster, yes he did poor in his time up this year. He was also a rookie for all intensive purposes inside probably the worst clubhouse in MLB -- very hard to do much of anything successful in that environment -- Look at our MLB guys.

 

But last year when Tito was at the helm he did a .231/.302/.436/.738. Not stellar, but much better than anyone minus possibly Adam LaRoche walking through that door. Remember we traded Rizzo for Gonzalez who we used for B prospects at best. Then we gave away Lars Andersen -- not a solution but probably a decent stop gap.

 

The trade market will be very slim on 1B unless we make a trade for Kendrys Morales who turned in his second straight decline season (albeit coming off of a scary injury) with a .273/.320/.467/.787 line. And I'd only deal B prospects at best for him, but LAA seems pretty set with him as a DH with Trumbo in the OF.

 

Remember Scott Hatteberg, he couldn't play 1B either and helped lead the A's back to the playoffs. His soxprospects.com profile states

 

Scouting Report: High baseball IQ with solid catcher's frame. Average-to-slightly above-average contact potential and possesses above-average plate discipline. Slightly closed, crouched stance. Attacks mistake pitches, especially ones out and over the plate. Upper cut swing that produces a bit too much topspin at times. Solid-average-to-better power projection. Can drive the ball to all fields and uses lower body well in his swing. Likes to get arms extended, which leads to some struggles on the inside third. Needs work pulling hands in against inside fastballs at big league level. Tends to get eaten up by two-seamers from right-handed pitchers. Will be prone to striking out. Well below-average speed. Rough overall catching skills. Limited range behind the dish and slow reactions. Tends to stab at offerings, and his catching hand drifts when framing pitches. Average blocking skills, he needs to improve how he controls balls bouncing out in front of him and the fluidity of his footwork. Has made ample strides with his catch-and-release mechanics since joining the organization. Hard worker dedicated to honing craft. Despite improvements, catching skills are still limited. Will need to increase defensive versatility. Projects as a DH/part-time catcher at the major league level.

 

And let's stop kidding ourselves about Jose Iglesias. Unless we go to a full groundball pitching staff his defense isn't going to mean anything with a line of .200/.250/.250. Any one of us could grab a bat and have as much pure luck hitting as that guy. I'd take Mike Aviles any day of the week and wait for Xander Bogaerts. Iglesias shouldn't be anything more than a trade chip at this point. Let's send his happy self off to the Cubs to be with Epstein. He already recovered Rizzo there, let's give him Iglesias since we got screwed with compensation for him anyways.

[Plumpamania]

I'm not so sure. Austin Jackson had a 5.6 WAR this season. Ian Kennedy, 3.1. Granderson... 2.6 WAR.

 

These kinds of moves can be scary. When played have HOF ceilings, and are playing mediocre, those players still end up costing HOF-caliber hauls of prospects. Look at the Agon trade-- he was only 28, everyone said it would be great for him to get out of SD, and in a real lineup. Josh Beckett, cost Hanley and Anibal.

 

I'm sure we'd all love Justin Upton but not just with with Pal said, the kid has been extremely flakey and the D'backs want 5 prospects for him at last reported at this year's trade deadline. I'm sorry not a chance we should do that. That would be the Hershel Walker equivalent.

 

If we wanted to target a guy, Felix Hernandez is always the ever present in trade talks or so it seems, and an obvious target the Yankees have as well. He's probably the only guy I'd give up 5 prospects for not named Mike Trout.

[Plumpamania]

Couple things.

 

1. The more I think about it, the more I want to acquire our SP's via FA, not via trade, because I want to keep our youngsters for the core. Unless we can make a deal for a guy like Lee in a salary dump scenario and give up Doubront + Cecchini, and eat all the money, then I am not interested. I do think Shields hits FA, because $9mm for a SP with a lot of SP depth in the minors and a lot of offensive needs is not a wise way for them to spend money. Sign 2 of Shields/Haren/Peavy. Keep the kids.

 

Unless it's for Felix Hernandez or Mike Trout, agreed.

 

2. Trade for Michael Morse. He's going into the final year of his contract. He's versatile to play LF and 1B, and hits for a ton of power.

 

What would Washington want to do trading him when Adam LaRoche is a free agent to be?

 

3. Don't overpay, but see what you can get Nick Swisher for. If you can get him for 4/52, sign him. Anything over that, stay away.

 

I think that's too much for Swish. I love his attitude and perceived club house presence which would be needed, but he's also a product of Yankee Stadium.

 

Swisher is going into his age 32 season, so we would be signing him for 32,33,34,35. Although over the last three seasons in exactly 100 AB's he's posted a line at Fenway of .330/.424/.610/1.034, I wouldn't want to see him at age 34 and 35 in the OF. He'd be a DH then, granted Ortiz should be retired by then, I'd rather keep that slot open for a different type of hitter, and be able to use the DH role for flexibility rather than a DH period.

 

4. Call the Angels and see what you need to give up to get Mark Trumbo. 1B is the main position where the Sox have very little or no depth in the minor leagues. So this is one of the positions you almost have to pay for.

 

Any Sox fan would love Trumbo and his blue collar type approach, ala Trot Nixon, but the Halos would want at least 3 top tier specs for a guy not even at arbitration eligibility that hits 30 to 40 HR's a year. Remember Trumbo's home park has ranked as the third worst park for hitters in the last three seasons.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Unless it's for Felix Hernandez or Mike Trout, agreed.

 

Correct. For all intents and purposes, Felix and Trout are not available. Obviously, if a once in a lifetime player comes around like that, you make the deal. But otherwise, no dice.

 

What would Washington want to do trading him when Adam LaRoche is a free agent to be?

 

LaRoche is likely going to be resigned with the Nats. I think the Sox could coax Morse away from the Nats with a nice package of players. He'd be a great fit in Fenway, too. 35 HR power.

 

I think that's too much for Swish. I love his attitude and perceived club house presence which would be needed, but he's also a product of Yankee Stadium.

 

Swisher is going into his age 32 season, so we would be signing him for 32,33,34,35. Although over the last three seasons in exactly 100 AB's he's posted a line at Fenway of .330/.424/.610/1.034, I wouldn't want to see him at age 34 and 35 in the OF. He'd be a DH then, granted Ortiz should be retired by then, I'd rather keep that slot open for a different type of hitter, and be able to use the DH role for flexibility rather than a DH period.

 

Trust me, I hate Swisher more than anyone I know. You say he's a product of Yankee Stadium, but that's completely false. His splits have him as an .834 OPS hitter at home, .841 OPS away. He's got 11 HR at home, 13 away. Playing $13mm AAV for a player like that is not a bad deal. The problem is that he will likely try to demand $14-16mm AAV, and someone may actually pay him that. His position flexibility is another reason why he could be a nice fit. He can play LF, RF, or 1B. If you add him and a guy like Mike Napoli, you have great position flexibility at 1B, since Napoli can play 1B or C, too.

 

Any Sox fan would love Trumbo and his blue collar type approach, ala Trot Nixon, but the Halos would want at least 3 top tier specs for a guy not even at arbitration eligibility that hits 30 to 40 HR's a year. Remember Trumbo's home park has ranked as the third worst park for hitters in the last three seasons.

 

Yep - The Sox farm system is completely depleted of power hitting 1B. It's a shame that Ellsbury is in his last year of his deal because he's a great fit for the Angels. You may be able to get Trumbo for a deal like Ellsbury + Barnes + Cecchini/Brentz. That's a lot to pay for a guy like Trumbo, but Trumbo would be a 40+ HR guy for the Red Sox, and certainly he would fit the mold of young players the Sox would like to build around. I know I said earlier you don't trade Barnes and Webster, but I would consider it for a young 40+ HR bat like Trumbo (or Mike Stanton, if the Marlins are intent on having a full on fire sale).

 

EDIT: You can also go for Kendrys Morales, who will be hitting FA after this season. He would cost much less in prospects (potentially even a deal of Ellsbury for Morales straight up).

[Behindenemylines]

Justin Upton is the type of player you are looking for. Young and has reasonable contract for a big market team. For a team like Arizona who has to watch every dollar they feal it might be too rich for them. If you get him without selling the farm its a thought worth looking at. I think if you put him in a situation where doesn't have to be the guy (Like he is in Arizona), he has all of the tools to be a good to great player for a lot of years.

 

I think Swishers power numbers are tainted because he plays his home games at $pankee stadium. Where pop ups to right field are home runs. I would be careful with him. He is going to ask for the moon.

[mvp 78]

Trumbo for Ells/Barnes/Brentz is a horrible trade. If you're trying to get a #1 starter, sure. 1b is one of the easiest positions to fill.

 

Don't want to trade for pitchers? GioGonzalez looked pretty good this year.

 

Waiting on FA's is a horrible business model because you may have to wait a few years until a great pitcher shows up.

[Behindenemylines]

Plus you usually over pay for FA. Why would the Angels trade Trumbo any way?

[Meh]

Call me crazy but I wouldn't make block buster deals or huge free agent signings. I mean im not a red sox fan but I certainly know what its like to be a fan of a team. You all want to go out and sign Hamilton and Peavy and Haren, thats fine and all... but that solves your 'problems' for what a year or two and then they become what the Yankees have with ARod. Look towards your future. Call 2013 a building year, no pressure on your team. Make sure ellsbury stays healthy so you get your draft pick when he leaves. See what you got with Kalish. Call JBJ up mid season even, like the O's did with Manny. See what your young players can do, don't go out and block them with long term deals. You may suck again next year, but 2014 you'll be more set up. Middlebrooks will have a full season under his belt. You'll see if Kalish is a major leaguer or not. Doubront and Morales will of had their shots and be more in a groove. Who knows you could be the Balitmore O's of 2013. It's time to build a team and you don't go from ground zero to the penthouse over night. I think you have to get rid of Aceves, even if you have to non tender him. Same for Melancon too. Give real shots to your pitchers like Tazawa. Although it may not be easy to accept.

[Station 13]

Trumbo for Cecchini makes more sense, may have to add 1-2 more pieces. The Angels may want to take a flyer on Ranuado. They need a 3B and Cecchini is a solid hitter and a demon on the base paths. He is block by Middlebrooks.

 

Also regarding Middlebrooks, he must hit 4th from day 1 to day 162, not some hack that is 33 on a 2 year contract.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Plus you usually over pay for FA. Why would the Angels trade Trumbo any way?

 

They can get a hell of a lot more back for him than they can from Morales, and they are carrying 3 1B right now. Pujols has 1B locked down for 10 years, so essentially they have Trumbo and Morales either playing out of position or DH'ing.

 

They would be wasting an asset by throwing Trumbo in LF or at DH, so it makes sense for them to trade him for a need (i.e 3B, Cecchini) and then go sign a player to be their DH.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Call me crazy but I wouldn't make block buster deals or huge free agent signings. I mean im not a red sox fan but I certainly know what its like to be a fan of a team. You all want to go out and sign Hamilton and Peavy and Haren, thats fine and all... but that solves your 'problems' for what a year or two and then they become what the Yankees have with ARod. Look towards your future. Call 2013 a building year, no pressure on your team. Make sure ellsbury stays healthy so you get your draft pick when he leaves. See what you got with Kalish. Call JBJ up mid season even, like the O's did with Manny. See what your young players can do, don't go out and block them with long term deals. You may suck again next year, but 2014 you'll be more set up. Middlebrooks will have a full season under his belt. You'll see if Kalish is a major leaguer or not. Doubront and Morales will of had their shots and be more in a groove. Who knows you could be the Balitmore O's of 2013. It's time to build a team and you don't go from ground zero to the penthouse over night. I think you have to get rid of Aceves, even if you have to non tender him. Same for Melancon too. Give real shots to your pitchers like Tazawa. Although it may not be easy to accept.

 

No chance this happens. Nobody wants Hamilton or Greinke. Everyone wants players on short term deals (i.e. Haren on a 1-2 year deal, pillow contract likely) and then go out and get a proven vet like James Shields and sign him to a 5 year deal. It's not bad to have 1-2 players on long term deals to stay competitive while your youth matures and gets ready for the bigs. You don't just punt the season to see what some players can do. You create a hybrid of the two. Sign some players to 5 year deals, most to 1-2 year deals, and all other players are home grown or trades.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Trumbo for Ells/Barnes/Brentz is a horrible trade. If you're trying to get a #1 starter, sure. 1b is one of the easiest positions to fill.

 

Don't want to trade for pitchers? GioGonzalez looked pretty good this year.

 

Waiting on FA's is a horrible business model because you may have to wait a few years until a great pitcher shows up.

 

Yeah that was an overpay, you're right. However, Ells + Cecchini would be more like it. I didn't realize that Trumbo only had an .838 OPS this year and is going to be 27 next year. I thought he was still around 24-25 and posted a .900+ OPS this season.

 

Regardless, I still see him as a big time target this offseason. Again, if there is 1 piece that this team needs and is missing in terms of minor league prospects, it's 1B. With Barnes/Webster/De La Rosa/Owens, there is a lot of high caliber pitching prospects. With Cecchini, Bogaerts, Marrero, we have infield depth. Brentz/Kalish/JBJ, we have OF depth. We have no 1B depth.

 

A move needs to be made to bring in a long term solution like Trumbo.

[redsoxfan3]

I don't think going back into spending money is the right idea for what we need to be doing.

 

Regarding not wanting Lavarnway to be on the MLB roster, yes he did poor in his time up this year. He was also a rookie for all intensive purposes inside probably the worst clubhouse in MLB -- very hard to do much of anything successful in that environment -- Look at our MLB guys.

 

But last year when Tito was at the helm he did a .231/.302/.436/.738. Not stellar, but much better than anyone minus possibly Adam LaRoche walking through that door. Remember we traded Rizzo for Gonzalez who we used for B prospects at best. Then we gave away Lars Andersen -- not a solution but probably a decent stop gap.

 

The trade market will be very slim on 1B unless we make a trade for Kendrys Morales who turned in his second straight decline season (albeit coming off of a scary injury) with a .273/.320/.467/.787 line. And I'd only deal B prospects at best for him, but LAA seems pretty set with him as a DH with Trumbo in the OF.

 

Remember Scott Hatteberg, he couldn't play 1B either and helped lead the A's back to the playoffs. His soxprospects.com profile states

 

 

 

And let's stop kidding ourselves about Jose Iglesias. Unless we go to a full groundball pitching staff his defense isn't going to mean anything with a line of .200/.250/.250. Any one of us could grab a bat and have as much pure luck hitting as that guy. I'd take Mike Aviles any day of the week and wait for Xander Bogaerts. Iglesias shouldn't be anything more than a trade chip at this point. Let's send his happy self off to the Cubs to be with Epstein. He already recovered Rizzo there, let's give him Iglesias since we got screwed with compensation for him anyways.

 

You are comparing 43 plate appearance in 2011 to 166 in 2012. The 2012 was a bigger sample size. I don't really find your point about comparing the clubhouses under Francona and Valentine relevant. When Lavarnway played last year, that was the time when the clubhouse issues started coming out. Both seasons, he played in what is known to be bad clubhouses in terms of chemistry. Let's not use that as the scapegoat to why he is not performing well offensively. You are going too much on that .231 average last year. That was only 43 plate appearances. This past year is what you have to go by, because it is a bigger sample size.

 

LaRoche, Napoli, and Swisher are all better options at 1B. First of all, they can all play 1B at the Major League level. Secondly, they are all better proven offensive hitters than Lavarnway.

 

Just because Hatteberg had success transforming from a C to a 1B does not mean that Lavarnway will. If we do go with the route of Lavarnway playing 1B, he needs to play a full year in AAA at 1B, so he can learn the position. I am not against that, but expecting him to start and saying that he is "much better" than anyone but LaRoche is where I have a problem. I don't want someone that has never played 1B in the majors to be our permanent starting 1B. I also do not want someone who has a career batting average of .172 in the majors starting at 1B.

 

You are so set on Lavarnway starting at 1B, but do not want Iglesias to start? That is ironic. Lavarnway has not proven to be much of a better hitter than Iglesias. At least Jose is a Gold Glove caliber SS. You cannot say the same with Lavarnway, especially since the guy has never played 1B in the majors. If I had to choose between the two, I would sacrifice Iglesias' lack of offense in the majors for his defense over Lavarnway.

 

Like I said, I am open of the idea of Lavarnway learning 1B, but he is not doing it in the majors. He needs to go to the minors to do that. I think Lavarnway will have the most success as a platoon C next year, or even getting another half year in AAA to work on his offense.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think a lot of people here are skiddish about spending money again, which is understandable, but you also have to understand that this isn't the Rays or the Royals. This didn't just morph into a small market team.

 

The Sox are going into next season with $45mm locked in. Approximate $30mm in arbitration, and $20mm to Ross and Ortiz, and you're still at $95mm going into next year.

 

There's a difference between pissing the money away and spending a lot of money on quality deals.

 

Giving Dan Haren a 1 year/$15mm deal is not pissing money away. Trading for Cliff Lee to lead your staff for the next 3 years for $25mm/year is not pissing money away. Signing Josh Hamilton to a 7 year/$140mm deal IS pissing money away. But the Red Sox are certainly not going to go into next season with the same rotation, the same lineup, and the same bullpen that they had in September, 2012. Not by any means. And not close.

 

The Sox WILL spend money. They will still be aggressive in their approach to free agency. They will be more disciplined in terms of their valuation of players, especially in the length of the contract. But this is NOT a $90mm team. They will be around $140-$150mm next year. Which means they will acquire ~$45-$55mm in payroll via FA and trades (after Ross and Ortiz).

[jacksonianmarch]

Wait, so a guy in low A is good enough for a guy who plays 1B, RF, and a little 3B with 30+HR power and a .800+ OPS? What f***in planet are you on?