9/19 @ Rays... Going for 3 on the Trot

[mvp 78]

Dice was good in 2008 too. 2 years good, 4 years s***.

 

08 was a lucky, but better year than 07.

 

He was a 3rd starter on a WS team. At the end of the day, I'm happy with what he brought.

 

He sucked the past few years, but I don't think he prevented a 3rd WS.

[jung]

Really with the posting fee, dice ends up costing us $110M for six years. Yea...you can argue about whether the posting fee should count or not but it is still money spent.

 

So OK, his first year was pretty good as well. But he was not the cornerstone of that championship team. I suspect the Sox could have found his 2007 numbers someplace without sucking $110M out of the payroll budget.

 

How many pitchers in 2007 were costing their teams that much money out of the payroll budget? Would not have expected much more from dice for that kinda' money. Hasn't starting pitching been the biggest problem this team has had in recent years? Has dice been part of the problem or part of the solution?

 

Dice was another of the glitzy, high profile moves that the Sox just loved for a period. To me he exemplifies the things that have been wrong about the Sox, not the things that have been right about the Sox.

[Bellhorn04]

We have no OF of we trade Ellsbury. Ross is brutal and he is awful with the glove, and can't hit outside Fenway.

 

Certainly an OF of Kalish, Nava, Ross/Sweeney will not work. Bradley still 1 year away.

 

Yeah, I don't disagree, but if they can get a serious return for Ellsbury it may be the right move...for the 2014 team.

[Bellhorn04]

Really with the posting fee, dice ends up costing us $110M for six years. Yea...you can argue about whether the posting fee should count or not but it is still money spent.

 

I have always said that too. It's actually a little over 103 million, so about 17 million a year.

[Palodios]

We have no OF of we trade Ellsbury. Ross is brutal and he is awful with the glove, and can't hit outside Fenway.

 

Certainly an OF of Kalish, Nava, Ross/Sweeney will not work. Bradley still 1 year away.

 

Center field is the deepest position in free agency this year. There are a lot of solid-- but not great-- options, and all of them are probably to be had for cheap. Bourn, Hairston, Victorino, Upton, Melky Cabrera. Trade Ellsbury for some key pieces, and pick up one of those guys to replace his .700 OPS? I'd do it in a second.

[Station 13]

Yeah, I don't disagree, but if they can get a serious return for Ellsbury it may be the right move...for the 2014 team.

 

Yes for pitching I would try to get a starter back, someone like Max Scherzer.

[mvp 78]

Yes for pitching I would try to get a starter back, someone like Max Scherzer.

 

Uh, I'd hold out for a better pitcher than him...

[jung]

I don't think the Sox will trade Ells. They are boxed I think. Ells will end up playing out his contract, testing the market and if he does have a full 2013 like this last week or two of 2012, he will substantially recover his value. I actually don't think he will hit for anything like the power he exhibited in 2011 and really don't think he will have enough of a 2013 to turn into a monster contract guy. That at least gives the Sox a shot at signing him.

 

I don't want the see the Sox spend a fortune on Ells. He is not a $20M per player in my view although somebody might give that to him.

[Station 13]

Aceves is done, and Bard is terrible.

[Station 13]

Uh, I'd hold out for a better pitcher than him...

 

Scherzer is really underrated. Would love a power pitcher in this rotation.

[Station 13]

Way to manage the bullpen Bobby, turd.

[jung]

I am sure the Sox realize that a power pitcher is a real need. They may not pull off getting one for 2013 but I would be surprised and disappointed if finding and getting one was getting one was not the top priority for the FO. By 2014 the Sox might have a power pitcher not yet known and DeLaRosa in the rotation. If Buch is still cooking along and Lester comes around that could be a hell of a rotation.

 

Does that sound radically different from a rotation with dice and Cook in it or what?

[Bellhorn04]

I am sure the Sox realize that a power pitcher is a real need. They may not pull off getting one for 2013 but I would be surprised and disappointed if finding and getting one was getting one was not the top priority for the FO. By 2014 the Sox might have a power pitcher not yet known and DeLaRosa in the rotation. If Buch is still cooking along and Lester comes around that could be a hell of a rotation.

 

Does that sound radically different from a rotation with dice and Cook in it or what?

 

We don't even have one starter with a good ERA, so just about anything sounds like an improvement.

[Bellhorn04]

Center field is the deepest position in free agency this year. There are a lot of solid-- but not great-- options, and all of them are probably to be had for cheap. Bourn, Hairston, Victorino, Upton, Melky Cabrera. Trade Ellsbury for some key pieces, and pick up one of those guys to replace his .700 OPS? I'd do it in a second.

 

.700 OPS, seriously? Career is .794, last year was .928. This year is .700 but last 9 games he has 4 multi-hit games and his OPS has gone up 50 points.

[jung]

I just don't think the Sox get much for Ells under the circumstances. I would agree with Pal though. If the Sox could get a Sox favorable deal trading Ells, I would absolutely do that.

 

The depth at CF in the FA market coming up is a double edged sword though and it will cut both ways. While the Sox would have ample opportunity to replace Ells there are plenty of alternatives to Ells out there, which will likely depress Ells trade value.

[Bellhorn04]

Man, can you believe this. The Dodgers have blown a 6-0 lead in the 8th. Beckett was cruising with a 2-hitter through 7, only about 70 pitches. Then he goes home run, single, home run. Then A-Gon makes an error. Unbelievable. 6-6 after 8.

[Bellhorn04]

I just don't think the Sox get much for Ells under the circumstances. I would agree with Pal though. If the Sox could get a Sox favorable deal trading Ells, I would absolutely do that.

 

The depth at CF in the FA market coming up is a double edged sword though and it will cut both ways. While the Sox would have ample opportunity to replace Ells there are plenty of alternatives to Ells out there, which will likely depress Ells trade value.

 

That depends. Some teams may see Ellsbury as 2011 Ellsbury. All you need is one who sees it that way.

[Bellhorn04]

Kemp puts Soxgers back on top 7-6.

[Station 13]

if Bard isn't injured, he may be done.

[Palodios]

Is anyone else seriously rooting for the Dodgers to crash hard?

[Bellhorn04]

Is anyone else seriously rooting for the Dodgers to crash hard?

 

To me they seem like they're already f**ked for this year.

[Palodios]

.700 OPS, seriously? Career is .794, last year was .928. This year is .700 but last 9 games he has 4 multi-hit games and his OPS has gone up 50 points.

 

Take out his steroid year and he has a career .730 OPS. Call me unimpressed. If we could trade Ellsbury and end up with Johnson and Victorino, I wouldn't lose sleep over it.

[Bellhorn04]

Take out his steroid year and he has a career .730 OPS. Call me unimpressed. If we could trade Ellsbury and end up with Johnson and Victorino, I wouldn't lose sleep over it.

 

OK well if you know it was steroids, I guess that's that.

[jung]

I am a little surprised that AGons has not done better in the NL. I still think he will ultimately do better there but I can't say that his performance in LA could not be expected.

 

The LA press is already starting to pump out stories about the fan base growing quickly tired of the same sort of stuff many of us did not appreciate in AGons. I cannot tell yo how happy I am that he is gone...I will not be looking back no matter what he does in LA.

[Palodios]

OK well if you know it was steroids, I guess that's that.

 

From 2005-2010 he hit 30 home runs combined. In 2011 he hit 32 home runs. In 2012 he's hit 4 in 70 games. In peewee, high school and college, he never hit that many home runs. He's on the Red Sox, so I'll cheer for him all the same, but come on, don't be naive.

[jung]

Well for one thing, I think the ML ballplayer is well past using steroids now. There is a whole basket of offerings under the heading "Performance Enhancing". That is one of the problems with baseball's testing regimen. They test a whole bunch but the testing is not very comprehensive.

 

I will offer this one thought with regard to Ells...his home run in the Rays game was very similar to his home runs of last year. Ells hit that ball as perfectly as he could possibly hit it. That is about what it takes for him to get the ball out. He is clearly not as strong as even Granderson for example.

 

When Ells is recovering from or going through injury it appears to me that his hitting stroke really does suffer. So if I wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt, I would say that when he is really going well and in perfect health Ells has a really sweet swing and appears able to drive the ball out. When he either is not going well or recovering from injury or playing through injury, it is an entirely different deal with Ells. It is one of the reasons why I think Ells power numbers for 2011 are a one off. I don't think he can maintain that sweet swing for a long enough period of time to ever duplicate that performance again. But hey, Pal may be right at least with regard to some sort of Performance Enhancement Drug.

[rjortiz]

Yes for pitching I would try to get a starter back, someone like Max Scherzer.

 

Uh, I'd hold out for a better pitcher than him...

 

Detroit has Austin Jackson in CF, plus Scherzer is under control for two years, and he leads the league in K's. Not happening.

[RedSoxNC84]

Ellsbury is still young, but he's 29. It's not like he's 22 and has a ceiling like 2011. I doubt he'll ever put up those numbers ever again, and even though some guys are having career years well into their 30s, it's not that common.

 

I think it was a one off as well.

[Bellhorn04]

From 2005-2010 he hit 30 home runs combined. In 2011 he hit 32 home runs. In 2012 he's hit 4 in 70 games. In peewee, high school and college, he never hit that many home runs. He's on the Red Sox, so I'll cheer for him all the same, but come on, don't be naive.

 

So why isn't he on a similar pharmaceutical regime this year? He got away clean last year. Why would he go for a big one-off season in 2011 when he doesn't become a free agent until after 2013?

[Palodios]

So why isn't he on a similar pharmaceutical regime this year? He got away clean last year. Why would he go for a big one-off season in 2011 when he doesn't become a free agent until after 2013?

 

I'd bet that the unpredictability of drug screenings increases because of his time off.

 

If there is a guy who is familiar with how to get around the drug screening process, and/or has sources within that part of the MLB, wouldn't Scott Boras be that guy?