What do the Red Sox need to do to make the playoffs?

[jacksonianmarch]

It's always pitching. Defense and Timely hitting. In that order. You could write a thesis in an argument about O.B.P. Or any of the latest trendy sabermetric principles. Or wax poetic about the good old days when men were men. It's Pitching. Billy Beane hasn't won s***' date=' Moneyball or otherwise. It's also chemistry. You could argue that forever too. This team is a sack of nothing signifying nothing. It's just the waxing and waning of baseball. Or in the words of Carole King...sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. I think there is a general malaise over the whole sport at the moment. It's like the whole nation has entered into a fugue state. As a fan, I went some 20 odd years without making the playoffs. Now, they can just Caribbean Island backdoor it. Have thumb injuries, back spasms, mental defects, chicken and beer, pitch counts. Which I think have been the bane of everything. It's pitching. That's it.[/quote']

 

Long time no speak talies.

[jung]

To be honest I am wondering if it is starting to dawn on some of the doubters how deep a hole the Sox have actually dug for themselves, not just this year but given the length of some of these contracts, the play of the players that have these contracts, the health of the players that have these contracts for a few years now to come.

 

This is no longer about making the playoffs this year. This team could not win a short series if its life depended on it WITH Ells and CC and it is looking more and more like CC is done for the year....not because of the groin but because the more we find out about the elbow the more it looks like he is heading for TJ.

 

To date, management here has clearly shown reluctance to spend past current commitments as they try to recoup some of the coop money or whatever you want to call it that they do not get back unless they get undo the LT cap. So LT cap is a double whammy now.....you pay a tax and you get back a smaller % of the dollars that are supposed to come back to you from the league.

 

The players where the money is invested are all damaged goods in one way or another....since Lackey is coming out of his surgery and recovery, he might be the most tangible asset they have.

 

1) Beckett, aging, injury prone, most consistant of a notably inconsistant group of starting pitchers

2) CC, a contract that the Sox can do nothing with

3) Lackey, at least coming back from injury and probably a very tangible asset believe it or not

4) AGons, no power either due to something or another or the shoulder is still in trouble and probably on the way to surgical repair

5) Ortiz, an arbitration guy. Either you keep him or you don't. You can get out from under Ortiz but who hits for this team then. I suspect that they will get out from under Ortiz just because they don't have any other place to realistically cut payroll and cutting payroll appears to be what they want to do

6) Lester is likely a tangible asset but he has pitched like a 3/4 guy in the rotation so what do you do with a guy you are paying $8M this year committed to pay him $12M next year who is pitching like $6M

 

So to be honest, you might be looking at a 5 year period of damage control from Lackey, Lester, Beckett, Agons, CC dollar commitments and end up without Ortiz not to mention Ells cause the FO is looking to cut payroll.

 

This is a mess folks and the wacko pink hats at least to this point still pack the place out. So, management has no real incentive to do anything.

[Bellhorn04]

The downward spiral for this team started the day they signed Lackey. That was Step 1. Step 2 was the AGon trade and Step 3 was the Crawford signing.

[Big Papis Ghost]

GET JOSH HAMILTON !

[Meh]

Jose Iglesias should be up instead of Cirarco, IMO.

[jacksonianmarch]

they brought up Ciriaco as their 26th man, so he's likely to be optioned back tomorrow. But with Aviles proving he is a replacement player offensively while being crappy defensively, you could make a case to start the future now and let the kid sink or swim

[SoxSport]

they brought up Ciriaco as their 26th man' date=' so he's likely to be optioned back tomorrow. But with Aviles proving he is a replacement player offensively while being crappy defensively, you could make a case to start the future now and let the kid sink or swim[/quote']

 

You would think that, but the FO has been having a pissing contest with Valentine all season--and Lucchino has let them win.

[FredLynn]

Jose Iglesias should be up instead of Cirarco' date=' IMO.[/quote']

 

Iglesias cannot hit the baseball. Until he can he should be in the minor league

[a700hitter]

To be honest I am wondering if it is starting to dawn on some of the doubters how deep a hole the Sox have actually dug for themselves, not just this year but given the length of some of these contracts, the play of the players that have these contracts, the health of the players that have these contracts for a few years now to come.

 

This is no longer about making the playoffs this year. This team could not win a short series if its life depended on it WITH Ells and CC and it is looking more and more like CC is done for the year....not because of the groin but because the more we find out about the elbow the more it looks like he is heading for TJ.

 

To date, management here has clearly shown reluctance to spend past current commitments as they try to recoup some of the coop money or whatever you want to call it that they do not get back unless they get undo the LT cap. So LT cap is a double whammy now.....you pay a tax and you get back a smaller % of the dollars that are supposed to come back to you from the league.

 

The players where the money is invested are all damaged goods in one way or another....since Lackey is coming out of his surgery and recovery, he might be the most tangible asset they have.

 

1) Beckett, aging, injury prone, most consistant of a notably inconsistant group of starting pitchers

2) CC, a contract that the Sox can do nothing with

3) Lackey, at least coming back from injury and probably a very tangible asset believe it or not

4) AGons, no power either due to something or another or the shoulder is still in trouble and probably on the way to surgical repair

5) Ortiz, an arbitration guy. Either you keep him or you don't. You can get out from under Ortiz but who hits for this team then. I suspect that they will get out from under Ortiz just because they don't have any other place to realistically cut payroll and cutting payroll appears to be what they want to do

6) Lester is likely a tangible asset but he has pitched like a 3/4 guy in the rotation so what do you do with a you are paying $8M this year committed to pay him $12M next year pitching like $6M

 

So to be honest, you might be looking at a 5 year period of damage control from Lackey, Lester, Beckett, Agons, CC dollar commitments and end up without Ortiz not to mention Ells cause the FO is looking to cut payroll.

 

This is a mess folks and the wacko pink hats at least to this point still pack the place out. So, management has no real incentive to do anything.

Oh yes it has dawned on me. That's why I haven't made a post with my opinion on how to fix this team going forward. I just don't know. There are a lot of serious issues and deficiencies.

[example1]

Oh yes it has dawned on me. That's why I haven't made a post with my opinion on how to fix this team going forward. I just don't know. There are a lot of serious issues and deficiencies.

 

This is the truth, though the five year comment from jung is a bit off. It's more like 2-3 years before the contracts disappear.

 

I'm still on the Gonzalez bandwagon, I just have no explanation for his power outage. In his last 16 games he does have an .850 OPS with an OBP approaching .400. His ABs look better. That's more like him, though his SLG still leaves something to be desired.

 

I don't think there's any doubt that the Sox will need to let Ortiz walk next year. They can't afford him and have adequate replacements. They need to get that payroll down so they can actually invest in pitching as necessary.

[Bellhorn04]

This is the truth, though the five year comment from jung is a bit off. It's more like 2-3 years before the contracts disappear.

 

I'm still on the Gonzalez bandwagon, I just have no explanation for his power outage. In his last 16 games he does have an .850 OPS with an OBP approaching .400. His ABs look better. That's more like him, though his SLG still leaves something to be desired.

 

I don't think there's any doubt that the Sox will need to let Ortiz walk next year. They can't afford him and have adequate replacements. They need to get that payroll down so they can actually invest in pitching as necessary.

 

They might not be able to afford him, but they absolutely do not have an adequate replacement, not even close. Ortiz is having a Hall of Fame level season. He's slugging .609. Who replaces that? Lavarnway? He's got 7 homers and is slugging .463 in Triple A.

[SemperFi Sox]

Signed Lackey when they could have had Matt Holliday. Thanks Theo!

[Designated Hater]

Two things they need to do and it will cause a public relations nightmare:

1) let Ortiz walk

2) seek a trade for Pedroia and NOT for major league talent - they need farm hands.

 

The other stuff that should have ALWAYS been on their list but seemed to get pushed to the back-burner:

1) build that farm system. they were good at it for a while, but then they decided they had to do some PR damage control with the Texeira debacle.

2) get a training staff together that can keep these guys healthy

 

And things that just need to happen to clean the mess of September 2011:

1) release Dice K

2) trade Beckett

3) trade Lester

4) stop selling those damn bricks

 

What you'll have left is oddly enough not much worse than what you're going into battle with right now, but with far less clubhouse drama. Honestly, though, I think Larry likes all the media attention. There's no such thing as bad press. Red Sox "fans" will keep going to games regardless. Come one, come all pink hat nation!

[Designated Hater]

Better yet, what needs to happen, but WON'T happen is getting rid of Larry.

 

Cherrington is his monkey boy GM and is he doing a good job? I don't know because every move seems to be clouded by some bit of Larry masterminding.

 

I feel that if Cherrington were a valuable, talented member of the Red Sox front office, he would have been picked up by another team to be their GM LOOOONGGG before he finally got the job here. He's been here since the 90s. Why is he just NOW getting a chance to do this job? I think it's because he's not a true GM. He's really just Larry's monkey boy.

[SemperFi Sox]

We need Friedman. Stop hiring from within, easier for LL to control you.

[FredLynn]

Two things they need to do and it will cause a public relations nightmare:

1) let Ortiz walk

2) seek a trade for Pedroia and NOT for major league talent - they need farm hands.

 

The other stuff that should have ALWAYS been on their list but seemed to get pushed to the back-burner:

1) build that farm system. they were good at it for a while, but then they decided they had to do some PR damage control with the Texeira debacle.

2) get a training staff together that can keep these guys healthy

 

And things that just need to happen to clean the mess of September 2011:

1) release Dice K

2) trade Beckett

3) trade Lester

4) stop selling those damn bricks

 

What you'll have left is oddly enough not much worse than what you're going into battle with right now, but with far less clubhouse drama. Honestly, though, I think Larry likes all the media attention. There's no such thing as bad press. Red Sox "fans" will keep going to games regardless. Come one, come all pink hat nation!

 

Just a quick comment on your proposal to get a training staff that can keep these guys healthy. I thought this might be related to age, as older players tend to break down more easily and take longer to heal. Turns out the Sox are towards the middle of the pack in terms of age in the AL, ranking fifth in average age of the 14 teams with an average age of 29.3 yrs. In the ALE the Yankees are the oldest team (31.3), the Rays are the fourth oldest (29.8) and the Jays are tied with us at 29.3. So its more than the fact that we are not a real young team. There are older teams ahead of us in the standings.

[example1]

They might not be able to afford him' date=' but they absolutely do not have an adequate replacement, not even close. Ortiz is having a Hall of Fame level season. He's slugging .609. Who replaces that? Lavarnway? He's got 7 homers and is slugging .463 in Triple A.[/quote']

 

...and a .400 OBP after starting off pretty poorly. He's got a career .533 SLG at AAA and .503 at AA, and a roughly .900 OPS at those levels. The guy is a very good hitter.

 

All of that would be accomplished for like $13.75m less than Ortiz.

 

If the team isn't going to succeed with or without Ortiz, then there's no point in having him weighing down their payroll when you don't have to. Yes, Crawford weighs it down more, so does Beckett, but right now they have to. When Ortiz's contract is up, he won't have to anymore.

 

It may hurt the team temporarily, but it is probably the right direction longterm, unless he is willing to accept a reasonable deal.

[jung]

Well I was reminded recently that the new CBA takes another year of arb off the table. So now it becomes a straight up deal for services over time at some cost. I don't think there will be an offers to Ortiz that the Sox can't match if they don't want to.There are so few teams that can actually make an offer for Ortiz, all in the AL obviously, that I I would bet the very best he would get in term would be 2 years and maybe $9M per year.....maybe. Without the arb option, I doubt he would get more than $12M for 1 year. David's problem is not his production. His problem is that the available candidates for his services are narrowed down to a select few. The Yanks are already a very old team. They won't make him an offer he would accept. Maybe Texas would make him an offer.....I can't think of more than 3-4 teams that would even be in the running and that is the problem for David.

[redsoxfan3]

Two things they need to do and it will cause a public relations nightmare:

1) let Ortiz walk

2) seek a trade for Pedroia and NOT for major league talent - they need farm hands.

 

The other stuff that should have ALWAYS been on their list but seemed to get pushed to the back-burner:

1) build that farm system. they were good at it for a while, but then they decided they had to do some PR damage control with the Texeira debacle.

2) get a training staff together that can keep these guys healthy

 

And things that just need to happen to clean the mess of September 2011:

1) release Dice K

2) trade Beckett

3) trade Lester

4) stop selling those damn bricks

 

What you'll have left is oddly enough not much worse than what you're going into battle with right now, but with far less clubhouse drama. Honestly, though, I think Larry likes all the media attention. There's no such thing as bad press. Red Sox "fans" will keep going to games regardless. Come one, come all pink hat nation!

 

I don't think we should let Ortiz walk. He is aging, but he is keeping this team together this year. In my opinion, we need to resign him. I don't think we should trade Pedroia either. He is a Red Sox player until he retires. When he is healthy, he is a hell of a player. He means too much to this team to trade him.

 

I agree about the trainers and the farm system. We need top of the line trainers and we are starting to put together a nice farm. It will take some time, but I think we are heading in the right direction.

 

I agree about releasing Dice-K. I could deal with trading Beckett. I don't think we should trade Lester unless it is for a true ace like King Felix.

[lesterkett]

Two things they need to do and it will cause a public relations nightmare:

1) let Ortiz walk

2) seek a trade for Pedroia and NOT for major league talent - they need farm hands.

 

The other stuff that should have ALWAYS been on their list but seemed to get pushed to the back-burner:

1) build that farm system. they were good at it for a while, but then they decided they had to do some PR damage control with the Texeira debacle.

2) get a training staff together that can keep these guys healthy

 

And things that just need to happen to clean the mess of September 2011:

1) release Dice K

2) trade Beckett

3) trade Lester

4) stop selling those damn bricks

 

What you'll have left is oddly enough not much worse than what you're going into battle with right now, but with far less clubhouse drama. Honestly, though, I think Larry likes all the media attention. There's no such thing as bad press. Red Sox "fans" will keep going to games regardless. Come one, come all pink hat nation!

 

TRade pedroia .. wth are you smoking ?

[FredLynn]

TRade pedroia .. wth are you smoking ?

 

Trading Mighty Mouth is not without its benefits. First, he would get us some good players in return, possibly some good pitching and second, it would rid us of another player who does not know when to keep his mouth shut.

[jung]

There is no reason to believe this team does not have some solid pieces that should still be at its core. I guess I don't understand why you would get rid of those guys. There are not that many of them and I guess I understand the idea that nobody is untouchable. I do think you want Pedroia. I cannot see the value of trading him. There is not a single pitcher that I think is an indispensable member of the Sox. Rebuilding the rotation looks like more than a one year project. So I can't say that there are guys in that rotation that have to be there. It is more an issue of what you get back for the pitchers you do trade.

 

I know I am going to sound like the biggest sucker on the planet but Buch might be the one guy of the "Big Three" that I would do my best to try to hold onto.

 

Boy they would be in much better shape to get this team positioned for the near term future without the CC and AGons contracts hanging over them. CC is just a huge basket of question marks now complicated by having to determine how to deal with his elbow.

 

I just don't think you can look at the way AGons has hit the ball since mid season last year and say that he is not suffering a power outage of some sort. The shoulder is a big joint. It does not have to cause you discomfort to be less than 100%. My knee does not cause me discomfort on a regular basis but it is not as strong as it was before injury many years ago. My right shoulder does not cause me discomfort but it is not as strong as it was before injury and neither joint will likely ever be the same again. I think that is the one thing that folks don't take into account with these sorts of joint injuries and their remedies. It is not like you get back a 100% healthy joint. You never in my view get back the joint you had before you injured it. AGons shoulder may never be the same again and he may never be the same power hitter he was at one time.

[redsoxfan3]

Trading Mighty Mouth is not without its benefits. First' date=' he would get us some good players in return, possibly some good pitching and second, it would rid us of another player who does not know when to keep his mouth shut.[/quote']

 

Just out of curiosity, but what did Pedroia say that makes you think he cannot keep his mouth shut? He is the leader of this team, aside from the self-proclaimed leader in David Ortiz. Pedroia is a leader by example and if we had a captain, it would be Dustin. Bobby V was questioning Youk's work ethic early in the season, and Pedroia was the first person to jump to his defense. Fact is that your manager should not be downgrading or talking crap about any of his players. He would bring in some good players in return, but that is not worth getting rid of him. He is only 28 and still has several good seasons left. He had a solid start to the year until his thumb started bothering him, then it went downhill from there. Once he is healthy, he is a valuable part of this team.

 

There is no reason to believe this team does not have some solid pieces that should still be at its core. I guess I don't understand why you would get rid of those guys. There are not that many of them and I guess I understand the idea that nobody is untouchable. I do think you want Pedroia. I cannot see the value of trading him. There is not a single pitcher that I think is an indispensable member of the Sox. Rebuilding the rotation looks like more than a one year project. So I can't say that there are guys in that rotation that have to be there. It is more an issue of what you get back for the pitchers you do trade.

 

I agree, Pedroia is a guy you want to keep on this team. No one is untouchable, but if anyone should be labeled that, Pedroia is probably one of those guys. I just don't think you trade an AL Rookie of the Year, AL MVP, and a Gold Glove winner because he has struggled some this year due to injury. The guy is only 28 and still has at least a few more years where he is going to be able to produce.

[FredLynn]

Just out of curiosity, but what did Pedroia say that makes you think he cannot keep his mouth shut?

 

Two things, primarily. First, before the season started, Valentine made a comment (I think it was about Youkilis not seeming to be himself, but its not important exactly what Pedroia's new boss said) and Pedroia told the media that "Thats not the way we do things around here. He'll (Valentine) figure it out" and second, when Pedroia injured his thumb the first time, his comment when asked if he was going to be on the DL was "No one tells me when I am going to play". Here are the exact quotes:

 

I don’t really understand what Bobby’s trying to do, but that’s not the way we do things here. Maybe in Japan.

 

-Mighty Mouth 4/17

 

"I'm going to play on Tuesday, man," he said.

"They don't tell me anything, man," he said. "I play Tuesday."

 

-Mighty Mouth 6/3

 

Here is another one from last season:

 

We’re not going to end the season being horse**** like we are…It ain’t going to end like this, I’ll tell you that.

 

-Mighty Mouth, last season early in September

 

Ortiz is the same way. He too should just shut up and play ball. I don't really want to hear about how "disrespected" he is when he team is playing like crap.

[Palodios]

Just out of curiosity' date=' but what did Pedroia say that makes you think he cannot keep his mouth shut?[/b']

 

Two things, primarily. First, before the season started, Valentine made a comment (I think it was about Youkilis not seeming to be himself, but its not important exactly what Pedroia's new boss said) and Pedroia told the media that "Thats not the way we do things around here. He'll (Valentine) figure it out" and second, when Pedroia injured his thumb the first time, his comment when asked if he was going to be on the DL was "No one tells me when I am going to play". Here are the exact quotes:

 

I don’t really understand what Bobby’s trying to do, but that’s not the way we do things here. Maybe in Japan.

 

-Mighty Mouth 4/17

 

"I'm going to play on Tuesday, man," he said.

"They don't tell me anything, man," he said. "I play Tuesday."

 

-Mighty Mouth 6/3

 

Here is another one from last season:

 

We’re not going to end the season being horse**** like we are…It ain’t going to end like this, I’ll tell you that.

 

-Mighty Mouth, last season early in September

 

Ortiz is the same way. He too should just shut up and play ball. I don't really want to hear about how "disrespected" he is when he team is playing like crap.

 

You're really reaching on these.

 

There is zero chance that the Red Sox trade Pedroia. Why trade him when his value is at an alltime low? Unlike Beckett, has an elite work ethic and lives and breathes baseball. He's also arguably the best player on this team, and the only one with any major hardware (Baseball Classic MVP trophies do not count).

 

You can improve the team's future without trading him. There are plenty of very good trade options that other teams would consider, like Beckett/ Ross/ Ortiz/ Albers/ Ellsbury/ Sweeney/ Shoppach / Salty, and it will be considerably easier to replace the production we see from any of those guys.

[Bellhorn04]

You're really reaching on these.

 

There is zero chance that the Red Sox trade Pedroia. Why trade him when his value is at an alltime low? Unlike Beckett, has an elite work ethic and lives and breathes baseball. He's also arguably the best player on this team, and the only one with any major hardware (Baseball Classic MVP trophies do not count).

 

You can improve the team's future without trading him. There are plenty of very good trade options that other teams would consider, like Beckett/ Ross/ Ortiz/ Albers/ Ellsbury/ Sweeney/ Shoppach / Salty, and it will be considerably easier to replace the production we see from any of those guys.

 

Ortiz's production will not be easy to replace. He's hitting 313/406/609 with 22 HR, 24 doubles, 185 total bases and 56 RBI. He's probably the second best offensive player in the league this year after Hamilton. How is it easy to replace the second best hitter in the league? We're paying Gonzalez 22 million a year and he's not as good as Ortiz.

[FredLynn]

You're really reaching on these.

 

There is zero chance that the Red Sox trade Pedroia. Why trade him when his value is at an alltime low? Unlike Beckett, has an elite work ethic and lives and breathes baseball. He's also arguably the best player on this team, and the only one with any major hardware (Baseball Classic MVP trophies do not count).

 

You can improve the team's future without trading him. There are plenty of very good trade options that other teams would consider, like Beckett/ Ross/ Ortiz/ Albers/ Ellsbury/ Sweeney/ Shoppach / Salty, and it will be considerably easier to replace the production we see from any of those guys.

 

You misunderstood me. I said that trading Pedroia is not without its positive points. I am not sure I would really pull that trigger either. I would, however, have no problem gagging him if he keeps mouthing off.

[FredLynn]

Ortiz's production will not be easy to replace. He's hitting 313/406/609 with 22 HR' date=' 24 doubles, 185 total bases and 56 RBI. He's probably the second best offensive player in the league this year after Hamilton. How is it easy to replace the second best hitter in the league? We're paying Gonzalez 22 million a year and he's not as good as Ortiz.[/quote']

 

I am not considering this year to be a year we try to win anything. Its all about planning for about 2014 or 2015. Ortiz will certainly be gone by then. The loss of his offense will be compensated by then through the acquisition of a cadre of good young pitchers-if the FO does the right thing. As MVP said that will require firing LL and BC most likely, and may require selling the club. A complete housecleaning is what is called for.

[a700hitter]

Dempster looked good today in his first start since coming off the DL.

[example1]

I am not considering this year to be a year we try to win anything. Its all about planning for about 2014 or 2015. Ortiz will certainly be gone by then. The loss of his offense will be compensated by then through the acquisition of a cadre of good young pitchers-if the FO does the right thing. As MVP said that will require firing LL and BC most likely' date=' and may require selling the club. A complete housecleaning is what is called for.[/quote']

 

Just to be clear, what has BC done wrong in your view?