What do the Red Sox need to do to make the playoffs?

[a700hitter]

No, I don't want to hear it because it means nothing. Seasons are full of streaks. The Sox are just coming off a streak where they went on a streak of 28-16 (.636) over 44 games. If they played .636 baseball from here out, they win 93 games.

 

And that was without Ellsbury, without Crawford, Pedroia was hitting .242 with a .605 OPS, Adrian Gonzalez hit .257 with a .725 OPS.

 

Yes. I think they can easily improve on that. Ellsbury and Crawford getting healthy would likely net us more than 2 wins difference over that streak, or over the remainder of the year. All they need to do is get healthy.

 

Regardless, even if they don't win the East, they are still very likely going to win the 2nd WC, at the very least.

Playing .636 ball for a 44 game stretch is much different than plan playing .654 ball for 81 games-- that's sustained excellence. There will be ups and downs in those 81 games-- they will have to play over .700 ball for periods at a time to balance out the down periods. Just to put it in perspective, not a single team played to such a winning percentage in the first half of the season-- not a single one. I don't think you are being realistic if you think this Red Sox team can get to 95 wins just by getting healthy.

[FredLynn]

I am completely against the idea of assessing everything based on whether or not the team appears, by some abstract reasoning, currently capable of winning the World Series. Not 81 games into the season.

 

You asked if they have the horses to make a run at a ring or not. My whole point is that adding a guy like Hamels gives you a pretty significant 'horse' in the playoffs and down the stretch. That's the whole idea of addressing problems through player acquisition.

 

You simply can't keep assuming that the team is incapable of getting better. If you are smart enough to identify the problem (you are) then you know how you start to fix it. If the problem is starting pitching then you address it. You don't wait until the season starts over again next year... not with exactly half the season left. Not when there's a good chance the Sox won't be able to add anyone next year anyway.

 

 

This is all assuming that they can add him without moving a guy like Bogaerts or Barnes or Bradley for him. If other teams are willing to go that high then more power to them.

 

What are you willing to give up for a Hamels two month rental?

He won't come cheap, and if we lose the one game (away, most likely) playoff game, we have nothign to show for what we surrendered.

Each to his own. I respect your opinion to go for it. For my part, its time save and not spend. Cut our losses. Three years of this crap is enough.

[Bellhorn04]

People still don't understand that our problem is our pitching. Offense will be oks. Offense has been oks overall in the first half. Pitching did not. No matter how many runs you make.... if the other team makes more, you lose.

 

It's about balance, this team is tremendous unbalanced.

 

Except for DiceK's implosion, the pitching was excellent on this road trip and it netted us a 2-5 record. You're not going to win many games in which you score 2 runs.

[a700hitter]

Going into the weekend series against the Yankees, the Red Sox are 8 games behind them in the loss column, but only 1/2 out of last place.

[Bellhorn04]

What are you willing to give up for a Hamels two month rental?

He won't come cheap, and if we lose the one game (away, most likely) playoff game, we have nothign to show for what we surrendered.

Each to his own. I respect your opinion to go for it. For my part, its time save and not spend. Cut our losses. Three years of this crap is enough.

 

Hamels is a pipe dream anyway. He'll be looking for Cliff Lee money and someone will be willing to pay it. Won't be us. Henry is still licking his wounds from Dice-K, Lackey and Crawford. He's not about to open a fresh one.

[FredLynn]

Going into the weekend series against the Yankees' date=' the Red Sox are 8 games behind them in the loss column, but only 1/2 out of last place.[/quote']

 

By the end of this day we will be back in last place. The Jays are winning at home against the Royals.

If this is how the final standings look, will it be enough for the owners to make substantive change and put a better product on the field? Thats the question. How many years of failure will it take for real change to occur.

[FredLynn]

Hamels is a pipe dream anyway. He'll be looking for Cliff Lee money and someone will be willing to pay it. Won't be us. Henry is still licking his wounds from Dice-K' date=' Lackey and Crawford. He's not about to open a fresh one.[/quote']

 

I agree. Then why not look realistically at where this team is and unload as much of the deadwood here as we can? Trade some bad contracts for other bad contracts; get rid of Lester and Beckett while their value level is still high, not for nothing, but for either SP or high level prospects and plan for success in future years.

This team is at a crossroads. It can keep hoping that somehow this group of misfits pulls it out or they can look at our record and team composition and start making the kind of moves it will take to be successful in 2-3 years. Its all a matter of long term strategy now.

[a700hitter]

Except for DiceK's implosion' date=' the pitching was excellent on this road trip and it netted us a 2-5 record. You're not going to win many games in which you score 2 runs.[/quote']Good teams with good pitching win their share of low scoring games. The Red Sox record in games where they score less than 4 runs is atrocious. You are seizing on the last handful of games to make the argument that the offense, not the pitching, is the problem? I don't think that is the case. The major problem has been and will continue to be the pitching. Of course, Adrian Singles could really help if he remembers how to be a power hitter.

[jung]

While I expect many more close low scoring games in the second half because that is the way the second half is, the Sox will still get some benefit from getting away from these huge ballparks. They still do not play well in close low scoring games but in addition, these parks where the opposing pitchers can just pitch them into the big parts of the ballpark is foreign soil for them.

 

The Sox are used to playing in AL East style parks which are generally smaller. Pitchers pitch to K's or contact ground balls in the East. You cannot pitch to the outfields because the fences are to close and OF are generally not as swift.

 

Teams that play in these monster parks feature pitchers that keep the ball between the tops of the knees and the belt if they can and from the middle out and just let the hitters play catch with their outfielders...guys that seem to be able to track down anything not hit on a line or hit out.

 

Our guys simply do not adapt and games and series are just over before we realize that we just played into their hands.

[Bellhorn04]

Good teams with good pitching win their share of low scoring games. The Red Sox record in games where they score less than 4 runs is atrocious. You are seizing on the last handful of games to make the argument that the offense' date=' not the pitching, is the problem? I don't think that is the case. The major problem has been and will continue to be the pitching. Of course, Adrian Singles could really help if he remembers how to be a power hitter.[/quote']

 

I'm not just seizing on the last handful of games. We had a team ERA of 5.54 in April, but it was 3.93 in May and 3.31 in June. That solid pitching in May and June resulted in a record of 30-26. This team has lost games in many ways, but since May 1 the offence and especially the clutch, late-inning hitting has been lousy. We don't win close games, we don't win extra-inning games.

 

Gonzalez has been a big part of the problem, and so has Pedroia.

[SoxSport]

Good teams with good pitching win their share of low scoring games. The Red Sox record in games where they score less than 4 runs is atrocious. You are seizing on the last handful of games to make the argument that the offense' date=' not the pitching, is the problem? I don't think that is the case. The major problem has been and will continue to be the pitching. Of course, Adrian Singles could really help if he remembers how to be a power hitter.[/quote']

 

Seems like they lost every game on the west trip 3-2 or 2-1.

 

That tells me they suck at smallball. They aren't doing what it takes to force a run. They don't execute fundamentals very well. Even with V stressing fundamentals more from spring training, they still don't execute. Maybe you just can't teach an old dog new tricks--at least overnight.

 

Has to be something wrong when they lose to a team like Oakland repeatedly 3-2. And Seattle 2-1.

[SoxSport]

While I expect many more close low scoring games in the second half because that is the way the second half is, the Sox will still get some benefit from getting away from these huge ballparks. They still do not play well in close low scoring games but in addition, these parks where the opposing pitchers can just pitch them into the big parts of the ballpark is foreign soil for them.

 

The Sox are used to playing in AL East style parks which are generally smaller. Pitchers pitch to K's or contact ground balls in the East. You cannot pitch to the outfields because the fences are to close and OF are generally not as swift.

 

Teams that play in these monster parks feature pitchers that keep the ball between the tops of the knees and the belt if they can and from the middle out and just let the hitters play catch with their outfielders...guys that seem to be able to track down anything not hit on a line or hit out.

 

Our guys simply do not adapt and games and series are just over before we realize that we just played into their hands.

 

 

yeah... I believe all this. they don't adjust their hitting in big parks--they are still swinging for the fences instead of playing smallball. That's in part the manager's fault. He has to take charge and get these guys playing as a team--not as a bunch of individuals. That was their problem under Francona, and it hasn't changed. I don't think V has changed the climate at all.

[jung]

I'm not just seizing on the last handful of games. We had a team ERA of 5.54 in April, but it was 3.93 in May and 3.31 in June. That solid pitching in May and June resulted in a record of 30-26. This team has lost games in many ways, but since May 1 the offence and especially the clutch, late-inning hitting has been lousy. We don't win close games, we don't win extra-inning games.

 

Gonzalez has been a big part of the problem, and so has Pedroia.

 

I think you have to look at the teams they were playing at the time and the comparative batting stats in order to make an assessment of the pitching and its relative merits regarding wins.

 

The Red Sox compiles a Team OPS of 775 in May and 754 in June

 

The teams the Sox played in May and their OPS:

A's, 629

O's, 763

Rays, 676

Ind., 713

Marlins, 675

Phils, 776

Tigers, 772

 

The teams the Sox played in June and their OPS:

Marlins, 681

Braves, 728

Cubs, 671

Mariners, 642

O's, 645

Nats, 738

 

So as you can see, at least using OPS, the Sox were compiling better numbers than everybody they played in the month of May and June with the exception of the Phils in May. The Tigers got close but other than the Phils and Tigers, the Sox compiled a better OPS than everybody else they played in those months.

 

While their pitching has gotten better, particularly their relief pitching, they are still for the most part besting their opponents in offensive categories and winning if there is enough offense to be had. They are now 4-33 for the season in games where they have scored less than 4 runs. So it is the low scoring, tight pitchers duals where the Sox do not fair all that well.

[Bellhorn04]

I think you have to look at the teams they were playing at the time and the comparative batting stats in order to make an assessment of the pitching and its relative merits regarding wins.

 

The Red Sox compiles a Team OPS of 775 in May and 754 in June

 

The teams the Sox played in May and their OPS:

A's, 629

O's, 763

Rays, 676

Ind., 713

Marlins, 675

Phils, 776

Tigers, 772

 

The teams the Sox played in June and their OPS:

Marlins, 681

Braves, 728

Cubs, 671

Mariners, 642

O's, 645

Nats, 738

 

So as you can see, at least using OPS, the Sox were compiling better numbers than everybody they played in the month of May and June with the exception of the Phils in May. The Tigers got close but other than the Phils and Tigers, the Sox compiled a better OPS than everybody else they played in those months.

 

While their pitching has gotten better, particularly their relief pitching, they are still for the most part besting their opponents in offensive categories and winning if there is enough offense to be had. They are now 4-33 for the season in games where they have scored less than 4 runs. So it is the low scoring, tight pitchers duals where the Sox do not fair all that well.

 

Right. And doesn't that seem to be because our offence can't come up with any big hits in those games, to turn 3-2 losses into 4-3 wins?

[iortiz]

Except for DiceK's implosion' date=' the pitching was excellent on this road trip and it netted us a 2-5 record. You're not going to win many games in which you score 2 runs.[/quote']

 

I'm not talking about this road trip, I'm talking about half of the season. That department has been our issue since last year and haven't been addressed.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not talking about this road trip' date=' I'm talking about half of the season. That department has been our issue since last year and haven't been addressed.[/quote']

 

No offence man, but you're not keeping up with what's been going on. The pitching was atrocious in September/11 and again in April/12 but it has vastly improved since May 1.

[jung]

Right. And doesn't that seem to be because our offence can't come up with any big hits in those games, to turn 3-2 losses into 4-3 wins?

 

But at least using OPS the Sox are already getting better offense than the competition. I guess you are arguing that if they bested the competition by more, then they would win more of those games. However they are already outperforming the competition offensively in those games.

 

Look, the average score for the opponents in those games where the Sox score less than 4 runs is 4.75 runs. The nature of close, low scoring games is to be low scoring. Your pitching has to control their offense better than their pitching controls your offense. To say that you need more offense to win those games implies that offense rules baseball and is more important than pitching and we all know that is not true. Pitching controls baseball. Good pitching always controls good hitting. In fact, hitters hit mistake pitches from pitchers. Without mistake pitches you would be lucky to end games in nine innings.

[Bellhorn04]

We've lost 15 games since June 1. In 10 of those losses we gave up 4 runs or less and still came out on the short end.

 

In 31 games since June 1 we've only given up more than 5 runs in a game 4 times. That's pretty damn good for a supposedly strong offensive team.

[Bellhorn04]

5 losses on this road trip and only one resulted from a bad performance by the starting pitcher.

[redsoxbeatz]

2.44 or something similar ERA on this road trip.

 

Offense failed us.

 

Still, SP is needed & offense needs consistency. Perhaps CC & Ellsbury will bring that to the table.

 

If Dustin Pedroia were 100% that'd be helpful. I sure wish he'd hit the DL but now with the yankees coming up... ugh, we need him out there injured or not.

 

Adrian Gonzalez is being an *******.

[iortiz]

No offence man' date=' but you're not keeping up with what's been going on. The pitching was atrocious in September/11 and again in April/12 but it has vastly improved since May 1.[/quote']

 

Do not take me wrong, I'm happy for Cook, Morales and even for what Doubront has showed. They are still a long shots, though.

 

Our 1-3? well, Lester is what in Mexico say "albur", one day is an "ace" the other a bum who rants when shits the bed. Buch is a sea of question marks (health/performance). Beckett? he is the queen of prima donnas. No aces here.

 

Sure it has improved last two months, but we do not have a shut down pitcher. Do you really are this confident? 2nd half will be tougher. We will face elite offenses. Hopefully I'm wrong man.

[Sheboyganan]

well i think first of all we should try drawing more crowds to Fen Way Stadium..perhaps this would prove to Bobby V that he is not alone. Second, wats up with our "open hole" for third base? I think we should work a trade with ChiSox.

[Bellhorn04]

Do not take me wrong, I'm happy for Cook, Morales and even for what Doubront has showed. They are still a long shots, though.

 

Our 1-3? well, Lester is what in Mexico say "albur", one day is an "ace" the other a bum who rant when shits the bed. Buch is a sea of question marks (health/performance). Beckett? he is the queen of prima donnas. No aces here.

 

Sure it has improved last two months, but we do not have a shut down pitcher. Do you really are this confident? 2nd half will be tougher. We will face elite offenses. Hopefully I'm wrong man.

 

Hey look, it'd be huge to have a stud horse pitcher like a Pedro or a Schilling or a 2007 Beckett. I don't disagree that our starting pitching still doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. I'm just trying to point out that overall, our pitching has been reasonably solid for a while now, and it isn't what's been costing us most of these losses.

 

At the end of the day, we just may have too many flaws in all facets of the game to fix this year.

[jung]

5 losses on this road trip and only one resulted from a bad performance by the starting pitcher.

 

And so what were the pitchers on the other end of those games...stiffs? Their pitchers controlled our hitters better than our pitchers controlled their hitters.

 

You cannot look at these numbers in a vacuum. Yes our pitching has improved...just not enough to change outcomes significantly. I should also point out that you are using the cumulative ERA stat and our relief pitching accounts for most of that improvement over months. Yes our starting pitching has also improved some but not nearly as much as our relief pitching and frankly starting pitching is much more important.

 

But look at the offensive numbers for the teams we have been playing particularly in June. They are very weak teams offensively which has been contributing to our "better" pitching stats. They feature better pitching themselves which is driving at our hitting stats. Again that is why I believe you cannot look at these numbers in a vacuum. You have to look at who we are playing, where we are playing them and weigh the pitching numbers against the offenses we are facing and their pitching numbers against our offense.

 

If you look across a season, you will generally find that offensive numbers go down as the season progresses and pitching stats improve as the season progresses. So, sure our pitching numbers are getting better, but not by enough especially with regard to starting pitching.

 

Also you are pointing to a record of 30-26 as if it is something for this team to be proud of. What is that...something like 535 winning %? Where the heck are the Sox going with a 535 winning %?

 

I do think that if Pedey and WMB and CC and Ells have to stay out of the lineup all at the same time for any length of time considering Agons lack of power, then the offense will really fall off the map. But Pedey and WMB have only been out of the lineup for well a day or two at this point.

 

Look I take your point. Our pitching has improved. I just don't think it is improving at some anomalous rate relative to what we normally see during a season for one thing and is "showing" improvement as much for the weak offenses we have generally faced over the last couple months as anything.

 

However, since you brought up the most recent road trip, I do think there is another element to these loses and in this most recent 2-5 road trip that needs to be considered but it is neither offense in the form of hitting or pitching. Our defense has sucked. But there again, this is a team, a franchise and an organization that constantly favors offense and hitting over defense and pitching and in these close low scoring games, one big mistake in the field can kill you if your opponent is not making big mistakes in the field.

 

We were making mistakes around home plate which are death because every one of those turned into a run in games that were being won and lost by 1 run at a time. We were making mistakes at SS, the most important defensive position on the field and we were making mistakes in CF, the third most important defensive position on the field.

[Bellhorn04]

And so what were the pitchers on the other end of those games...stiffs? Their pitchers controlled our hitters better than our pitchers controlled their hitters.

 

You cannot look at these numbers in a vacuum. Yes our pitching has improved...just not enough to change outcomes significantly. I should also point out that you are using the cumulative ERA stat and our relief pitching accounts for most of that improvement over months. Yes our starting pitching has also improved some but not nearly as much as our relief pitching and frankly starting pitching is much more important.

 

But look at the offensive numbers for the teams we have been playing particularly in June. They are very weak teams offensively which has been contributing to our "better" pitching stats. They feature better pitching themselves which is driving at our hitting stats. Again that is why I believe you cannot look at these numbers in a vacuum. You have to look at who we are playing, where we are playing them and weigh the pitching numbers against the offenses we are facing and their pitching numbers against our offense.

 

If you look across a season, you will generally find that offensive numbers go down as the season progresses and pitching stats improve as the season progresses. So, sure our pitching numbers are getting better, but not by enough especially with regard to starting pitching.

 

Also you are pointing to a record of 30-26 as if it is something for this team to be proud of. What is that...something like 535 winning %? Where the heck are the Sox going with a 535 winning %?

 

I'd have to see some numbers that support the idea that pitching generally improves as the season goes on. The league average team ERA by month so far in 2012:

 

April 4.06

May 4.06

June 3.99

July 4.41

 

Also I meant that the 30-26 record was not good considering the good pitching numbers.

[Bellhorn04]

jung, I think your point about the poor execution in areas of defence and fundamentals is a solid one. Those are things that can turn the outcome in these tight games.

[jung]

Thanks for the clarification on the record. My comment about improving pitching over the season is made based on several of the comments I have made at this forum about baseball going back to the days before the steroid era. This might be a year again were that happens. April at 4.06, May at 4.06 and June at 3.99 suggests that. July has obviously just started. The change over the course of the season will not be dramatic. At least I don't think so, not this year anyway. More important is who you are playing at any given point in time and the relative merits of those offenses vs your pitching and vis versa. Of the two elements I discussed in the longer post the latter is far more important than the former.

[SoxSport]

The great irony right now is Rizzo is hitting HRs in Chicago, while AdGon has lost his HR stroke.

 

The deal is looking like a disaster--all engineered by the guy who benefits in Chicago. Theo f*cking Epstein.

[Bellhorn04]

The great irony right now is Rizzo is hitting HRs in Chicago, while AdGon has lost his HR stroke.

 

The deal is looking like a disaster--all engineered by the guy who benefits in Chicago. Theo f*cking Epstein.

 

Yeah, it looks ominous at the moment. I don't think Epstein can be faulted for the Gonzo deal though. I'd say about 90% of Sox fans wanted Gonzo, and when it looked like the deal might fall through people were livid. It's all part of the perils of being a rich team and signing $150 million contracts. Maybe we should cease and desist with these types of contracts forever. There are very few sure things.

[jung]

That shot today looked ominous. I think Agons hit that just like the shot that Salty hit the other day. Salty's cleared the wall by a good bit.....Agons died on the track....granted that track is on Mars but there was a pretty big difference in the pop Salty delivered to the ball and Agons.