If the sox blew it up thread

[SoxFanForsyth]

Lester now only throw his fastball 30% of the time. It was around 60% 3 years ago. It's easy to understand why he is always at 100 pitches by the 5th inning. Hitters are not helping him out by chasing his crap anymore since he doesn't get ahead.

 

What are you talking about?!? Lester has thrown his FB 56.8% of the time this year, which is the most since 2007, when he threw it 57.0%.

 

I hate all of the analysis based on what everyone says and not looking up the stuff yourself. It's not hard to go to Fangraphs and look at his stats.

 

He is throwing his fastball at a more frequent rate than he has since 2007. He is not throwing his cutter too much, 16.4% this year and that's actually the lowest of his career.

 

He is walking 2.4 per 9 which is well below his career average of 3.30. The reason that he is throwing so poorly is because he cannot strand runners at all. He has an atrocious 66.9% strand rate, and his career norm is 75.4%. He is giving up hard hit balls but he is also giving up bleeders and bloops, which are falling much more frequently (.326 Babip vs career .302).

 

The good news is that these numbers tend to normalize over the course of a season. It's not like he's somehow lost control and has been walking the bases loaded. We will see if the numbers do normalize or not, his FIP is 3.57 and his xFIP is 3.60, so statistically speaking, he is likely to get much better results in the 2nd half.

 

But the one thing you cannot point at is how often he throws his FB and cutter.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Lester's avg FB velocity for his career is 92.5 mph. It's. 92.6 mph this year. He has not lost FB velocity. It's not his cutter either.

[Station 13]

What are you talking about?!? Lester has thrown his FB 56.8% of the time this year, which is the most since 2007, when he threw it 57.0%.

 

I hate all of the analysis based on what everyone says and not looking up the stuff yourself. It's not hard to go to Fangraphs and look at his stats.

 

He is throwing his fastball at a more frequent rate than he has since 2007. He is not throwing his cutter too much, 16.4% this year and that's actually the lowest of his career.

 

He is walking 2.4 per 9 which is well below his career average of 3.30. The reason that he is throwing so poorly is because he cannot strand runners at all. He has an atrocious 66.9% strand rate, and his career norm is 75.4%. He is giving up hard hit balls but he is also giving up bleeders and bloops, which are falling much more frequently (.326 Babip vs career .302).

 

The good news is that these numbers tend to normalize over the course of a season. It's not like he's somehow lost control and has been walking the bases loaded. We will see if the numbers do normalize or not, his FIP is 3.57 and his xFIP is 3.60, so statistically speaking, he is likely to get much better results in the 2nd half.

 

But the one thing you cannot point at is how often he throws his FB and cutter.

 

Cutter/Sinkers are 'fastball' too.

 

Look at PITCH f/x where it breaks down the the type of fastball is thrown. He's only using the standard 4 seamer 30%. The rest are cutter/sinkers.

[MANNYHOF24]

Cutter/Sinkers are 'fastball' too.

 

Look at PITCH f/x where it breaks down the the type of fastball is thrown. He's only using the standard 4 seamer 30%. The rest are cutter/sinkers.

 

Yeah, your exactly right. In the years when I think he was best, 2008-2009 he threw the 4-seamer 55-60% of the time. Now he is down to 30%. I think since he has incorporated other fastballs, he has lost command of his best pitch, the 4 seamer on the corners.

[MANNYHOF24]

What are you talking about?!? Lester has thrown his FB 56.8% of the time this year, which is the most since 2007, when he threw it 57.0%.

 

But the one thing you cannot point at is how often he throws his FB and cutter.

 

Totally wrong.

[MANNYHOF24]

What are you talking about?!? Lester has thrown his FB 56.8% of the time this year, which is the most since 2007, when he threw it 57.0%.

 

I hate all of the analysis based on what everyone says and not looking up the stuff yourself. It's not hard to go to Fangraphs and look at his stats.

 

He is throwing his fastball at a more frequent rate than he has since 2007. He is not throwing his cutter too much, 16.4% this year and that's actually the lowest of his career.

 

He is walking 2.4 per 9 which is well below his career average of 3.30. The reason that he is throwing so poorly is because he cannot strand runners at all. He has an atrocious 66.9% strand rate, and his career norm is 75.4%. He is giving up hard hit balls but he is also giving up bleeders and bloops, which are falling much more frequently (.326 Babip vs career .302).

 

The good news is that these numbers tend to normalize over the course of a season. It's not like he's somehow lost control and has been walking the bases loaded. We will see if the numbers do normalize or not, his FIP is 3.57 and his xFIP is 3.60, so statistically speaking, he is likely to get much better results in the 2nd half.

 

But the one thing you cannot point at is how often he throws his FB and cutter.

 

He may not be walking guys, but he has lost command of the corners. His biggest weapon used to be his FB painted on the outside corner against RHB. He has lost that over the past 2 seasons, IMO. He needs to rediscover that paint if he is ever to be the same pitcher again.

[Elktonnick]

Lester's avg FB velocity for his career is 92.5 mph. It's. 92.6 mph this year. He has not lost FB velocity. It's not his cutter either.

 

He was throwing in the mid nineties and above when he needed to. He can't do that now. I watch every game. He can't blow a fastball by anyone. He has lost his FB.

[Elktonnick]

Here is but one of many articles which illustrate my point about Lester losing his fastball.

 

Jon Lester and Josh Beckett have seen their fastball velocity dip a bit early in the 2012 season. This dip in velocity is but one of the factors that has led to some four-plus ERAs from the team’s top two hurlers. Pitchers lose velocity, it’s just part of the process, as arms can’t stay young forever. However, the question then becomes: Can a pitcher adjust without his best fastball? In the case of Lester and Beckett, the results might be slow, but the process of adjustment is in place.

 

Lester’s velocity began to drop last season, as his average fastball went from 93.5 mph to 92.6, about a one mph drop. Along with the drop in velocity came a rise in hit rate and home runs allowed per nine. In 2010, Lester started to rely heavily on his cutter and sinker, using the cutter about 15-percent of the time in 2009 and upping that usage to over 21-percent in 2010. According to pitch f/x data, Lester had not thrown a sinker before the 2010 season. The additional use of those pitches resulted in an increase in ground ball rate, but by implementing the extra movement on his fastball he gave up some command in the process, adding about one walk per nine to his stats.

 

Also according to pitch f/x, Lester has yet to top 95 mph this season and his average velocity has dropped a bit more, down to 92.2 mph. Lester has tried to adjust, relying very heavily on the sinker (25.3 percent) and adding in more changeups as well (13.2 percent). Those adjustments haven’t works thus far, as Lester has seen a huge drop in his strikeout rate (down to about six Ks per nine) and an increase in walk rate (over four walks per nine). While Lester has gone through stretches in which he has battled his command and control before, he has always been able to maintain a high strikeout — or at least a league average strikeout rate — during those times.

 

All is not lost, however. Lester is stranding fewer runners than he normally does (about 10-percent less), which, once (if) he figures things out and gets more comfortable using his cutter, sinker and change more often, should rise and help bring his ERA and FIP trend down toward expected levels.

 

Beckett, on the other hand, has seen a much more drastic drop in velocity. Last season, Beckett’s average heater rang in at 93 mph. So far this season, he has been sitting at 91.5 mph, topping out at around 94. If this trend continues, it will mark the third straight season in which Beckett has seen a drop in fastball velocity. Over the last few seasons, Beckett has been mixing in more two-seamers and cutters, but with this latest drop in velocity, he has looked more toward the changeup than he has in recent years. At present, pitch f/x shows him throwing the change just over 21 percent of the time. Last season, Beckett used his change more often than he ever had before, throwing it 13.8 percent of the time. Unfortunately, the change has not been a very effective pitch for him this season, going from 7.5 wCH last season to -0.5 wCH early this season. The sample size is still too small to draw a concrete conclusion from, but one could guess that the drop fastball velocity has had a negative affect on the effectiveness of his changeup.

 

Like Lester, Beckett is not looking like the strikeout artist he was just a year ago.

 

Both of the Sox’ co-aces are performing well beneath expectations so far in 2012, but that doesn’t mean that they aren’t striving to make positive adjustments. However, whether or not those adjustments work is a question that is yet to be answered, an answer that the fate of the 2012 Red Sox season could very well be gently teetering on.

 

P.S. This will be my last post as a weekly contributor to Fire Brand of the American League. My job working for a minor league baseball team is very rewarding, but also very demanding of my time and attention. I want to say thank you to everyone who has stopped by to read any of my work here on Fire Brand, left a comment, followed me on Twitter or contacted me through email — or all of thee above. This is a tremendous site with tremendous writers and I was extremely lucky and proud to be a part of it. I’ll still be around in the comments and on Twitter, so keep in touch.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Cutter/Sinkers are 'fastball' too.

 

Look at PITCH f/x where it breaks down the the type of fastball is thrown. He's only using the standard 4 seamer 30%. The rest are cutter/sinkers.

 

Yeah' date=' your exactly right. In the years when I think he was best, 2008-2009 he threw the 4-seamer 55-60% of the time. Now he is down to 30%. I think since he has incorporated other fastballs, he has lost command of his best pitch, the 4 seamer on the corners.[/quote']

 

Wrong and wrong. Both of you, wrong.

 

First off, cutters are not considered fastballs on Fangraphs, which is why I quoted that number separately. If it was included in the FB number, I wouldn't be able to quote it.

 

Second, Lester has thrown his 4 seam FB 38% of the time over his career. This year, he is throwing it 39% of the time.

 

http://brooksbaseball.net/player_cards/player_card.php?player=452657

 

He has thrown his cutter 20% of the time in 2012 per Brooks, vs. 23% over his career.

 

Please look up stats before you try to disprove something with no backing.

 

He is throwing MORE 4 seamers this year than his career numbers. You like how he threw in 2010? 38% 4 seamers. How about 09? 37%.

 

Again. It's not his pitch selection.

[Elktonnick]

Wrong and wrong. Both of you, wrong.

 

First off, cutters are not considered fastballs on Fangraphs, which is why I quoted that number separately. If it was included in the FB number, I wouldn't be able to quote it.

 

Second, Lester has thrown his 4 seam FB 38% of the time over his career. This year, he is throwing it 39% of the time.

 

http://brooksbaseball.net/player_cards/player_card.php?player=452657

 

He has thrown his cutter 20% of the time in 2012 per Brooks, vs. 23% over his career.

 

Please look up stats before you try to disprove something with no backing.

 

He is throwing MORE 4 seamers this year than his career numbers. You like how he threw in 2010? 38% 4 seamers. How about 09? 37%.

 

Again. It's not his pitch selection.[/QUOTE]

 

That is an uninformed statement. The art of pitching is all about pitch selection. Anyone who thinks otherwise doesn't understand pitching. Lester is throwing too many cutters. He should be throwing none.

[SoxFanForsyth]

That is an uninformed statement. The art of pitching is all about pitch selection. Anyone who thinks otherwise doesn't understand pitching. Lester is throwing too many cutters. He should be throwing none.

 

Then how did he have so much success in 08, 09, and 10?

 

You know, when he was throwing more cutters than he is throwing now?

 

Such a typical uninformed, trendy response.

[Elktonnick]

Then how did he have so much success in 08, 09, and 10?

 

You know, when he was throwing more cutters than he is throwing now?

 

Such a typical uninformed, trendy response.

 

read the articles from those who know pitching. You can quote stats but don't understand the game or why something is wrong. The cutter strains the arm unduely causing a reduction in velocity. Just ask Phil Hughes.

[a700hitter]

What are you talking about?!? Lester has thrown his FB 56.8% of the time this year, which is the most since 2007, when he threw it 57.0%.

 

I hate all of the analysis based on what everyone says and not looking up the stuff yourself. It's not hard to go to Fangraphs and look at his stats.

 

He is throwing his fastball at a more frequent rate than he has since 2007. He is not throwing his cutter too much, 16.4% this year and that's actually the lowest of his career.

 

He is walking 2.4 per 9 which is well below his career average of 3.30. The reason that he is throwing so poorly is because he cannot strand runners at all. He has an atrocious 66.9% strand rate, and his career norm is 75.4%. He is giving up hard hit balls but he is also giving up bleeders and bloops, which are falling much more frequently (.326 Babip vs career .302).

 

The good news is that these numbers tend to normalize over the course of a season. It's not like he's somehow lost control and has been walking the bases loaded. We will see if the numbers do normalize or not, his FIP is 3.57 and his xFIP is 3.60, so statistically speaking, he is likely to get much better results in the 2nd half.

 

But the one thing you cannot point at is how often he throws his FB and cutter.

The bad news is that last season the team's record in his starts was 16-15 and this season it is 7-11. Not an ace.

 

All of his numbers are going in the wrong direction. Over the last 2 seasons, his hits per 9 inning have gone up and k's per 9 innings have declined. I'm not buying that his BApip will normalize. I might agree with this if his k's/9 innings had not been decreasing. To me it is clear that his stuff is not what it had been. His fastball velocity is decreasing. I would trade him while he has a lot of value before they wait too long and he becomes another Lincecum.

[Station 13]

He is throwing a lot of sinkers and cutters in, often missing.

 

Where the f*** is the old school first pitch strike fastball. Throwing cutters isn't a problem, throwing bad cutters and missing is the issues here.

 

You know maybe go back to pounding the corners with his 4 seamer now he lost the touch of the cutter?

[Elktonnick]

He is throwing a lot of sinkers and cutters in, often missing.

 

Where the f*** is the old school first pitch strike fastball. Throwing cutters isn't a problem, throwing bad cutters and missing is the issues here.

 

You know maybe go back to pounding the corners with his 4 seamer now he lost the touch of the cutter?

 

In general I agree except when it comes to the cutter. A power pitcher such as Lester Beckett or a Hughes shouldn't use that pitch precisiely because there is growing data that throwing the cutter excellerates the process by which pitchers lose velocity. The most recent example is Phil Hughes whho according to recent reporting stopped throwing the cutter and saw his velocity increase.

[MANNYHOF24]

Wrong and wrong. Both of you, wrong.

 

First off, cutters are not considered fastballs on Fangraphs, which is why I quoted that number separately. If it was included in the FB number, I wouldn't be able to quote it.

 

Second, Lester has thrown his 4 seam FB 38% of the time over his career. This year, he is throwing it 39% of the time.

 

http://brooksbaseball.net/player_cards/player_card.php?player=452657

 

He has thrown his cutter 20% of the time in 2012 per Brooks, vs. 23% over his career.

 

Please look up stats before you try to disprove something with no backing.

 

He is throwing MORE 4 seamers this year than his career numbers. You like how he threw in 2010? 38% 4 seamers. How about 09? 37%.

 

Again. It's not his pitch selection.

 

Do you think I just pulled those numbers out of my ass? Check out pitch Fx.

 

Four season fastball: 30 %

 

Sinker: 29 %

 

Cutter: 12%

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=4930&position=P

 

He started throwing his sinker in 2010. I don't consider a sinker to be in the same class as a fastball.

[a700hitter]

Do you think I just pulled those numbers out of my ass? Check out pitch Fx.

 

Four season fastball: 30 %

 

Sinker: 29 %

 

Cutter: 12%

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=4930&position=P

 

He started throwing his sinker in 2010. I don't consider a sinker to be in the same class as a fastball.

So, you wouldn't consider trading Lester in the off season?

[jung]

I have to take the time to see how hitters are hitting Lester's cutter. Maybe folks think he is throwing it more cause it is getting hit more but I have not looked. I do know there was a stretch where it seemed to e getting hit but I am not sure the stretch I am thinking of would be meaningful over a season of pitching.

 

All of those pitches are segregated at Brooks for sure as SFF suggests. I think the designation for cutter is CF.

[MANNYHOF24]

So' date=' you wouldn't consider trading Lester in the off season?[/quote']

 

Maybe, depending on what he could bring back. Honestly at this point if we could package Lester and Ellsbury and get a frontline starter back I would do it, as much as I would absolutely love to keep Ellsbury he is going to be gone after next year because of the disaster that is Carl Crawford.

[jung]

Though I have a hard time justifying trading Lester at this point I guess I should have qualified that by saying Lester is not on some sort of protected list at least not one I would make. If the Sox could get a deal that favored them, then depending on who is coming back, I would not suggest that all trades involving Lester be off limits.

[Elktonnick]

Though I have a hard time justifying trading Lester at this point I guess I should have qualified that by saying Lester is not on some sort of protected list at least not one I would make. If the Sox could get a deal that favored them' date=' then depending on who is coming back, I would not suggest that all trades involving Lester be off limits.[/quote']

 

More and more are coming to the conclusion that Lester is what he is a nbr 2 or 3 starter not a nbr 1 or ace. Trading Lester makes sense only if they dump Beckett first. Many believe he is the real problem and that Lester has a better chance of turning it around without Beckett. I also believe that.

[jung]

Yea I think I would agree with that Elk, on all points. I would add that Lackey is no help either. Beckett and Lackey may have been something of a one-two punch to the overall mental well being of the rotation guys. Like I said in a different thread, I don't know you could have ended up with so many Texas guys in the rotation at the same time. But I have had about all I can take of the Marlboro man in cleats thing.

[Elktonnick]

Yea I think I would agree with that Elk' date=' on all points. I would add that Lackey is no help either. Beckett and Lackey may have been something of a one-two punch to the overall mental well being of the rotation guys. Like I said in a different thread, I don't know you could have ended up with so many Texas guys in the rotation at the same time. But I have had about all I can take of the Marlboro man in cleats thing.[/quote']

 

I had thought that Lackey's injury would keep him away from the club but I was wrong. The Lackey Beckett combination is bad. I'd like to see them both gone and the sooner the better.

[seabeachfred]

I had thought that Lackey's injury would keep him away from the club but I was wrong. The Lackey Beckett combination is bad. I'd like to see them both gone and the sooner the better.

 

Elk, as we have said on the other board, we are pretty sure the problems our team faces starts at the very top---with an owner who has gone AWOL, a CEO who is more interested in PR and 100 year celebrations than he is in disposing of the cancers that are eating away at our Red Sox. We have a GM who is nothing more than gofer or patsy, take you pick, and we have players who have become so entitled one has to wonder if they will start wailing until someone gives them their baby bottle.

 

I have made some nice friends on this board and I don't believe they deserve to hear my diabtribes laced in the anger I feel for those boobs who have driven the team into the pits. That is why so as to not to dump my fury on them by having them listen to my rants I will quietly leave this board for the rest of the year. It is no fun when you can see what the team needs, what it lacks, what's not being done, and can do nothing about it. The crime is that those in charge have lost their way Elk. Simple as that.

 

Here's wishing all of you a wonderful summer and best of luck to our beloved team.

[Cocos Disciples]

We have a GM who is nothing more than gofer or patsy' date=' take you pick[/quote']

 

What happened to "Ben the Boob?"

 

I don't believe they deserve to hear my diabtribes laced in the anger I feel for those boobs who have driven the team into the pits.

 

Nevermind.

[SouthieFanatic]

With the way Bradley is progressing it's not crazy to think he could be ready by mid 2013. What if they shop Ellsbury a bit and see who bites and offers what? I don't think it'd be the worst idea considering his tendency to get injured it's only a matter of time before it happens again!

[Youk Of The Nation]

They should keep Ellsbury unless they can get something amazing for him.

[Youk Of The Nation]

Sorry guys