Sox could use Lowrie and Reddick right now

[jacksonianmarch]

I knew Reddick was playing well, but had no idea Lowrie was that good.

 

Reddick: .870OPS with 14HR and 30RBI

Lowrie: .920OPS with 12HR and 28RBI

 

Reddick would be leading the sox in HR right now, while Lowrie would be second. Lowrie would be 2nd in OPS while Reddick would be 3rd behind Ortiz and Salty. I am shocked that these guys are hitting as well as they are. And when you look at their positions on the sox, they could be so much more. Aviles has a ton of RBI, but has been overall poor defensively and offensively. While Lowrie would probably have turned those into more RBIs and has nearly 100 points on Aviles in OBP. Reddick, OTOH, has 14 more HRs than Sweeney and could have been a rock in RF where the sox have been playing Gonzalez. At the time, the trades were understandable, even downright good for the sox. But they are blowing up in their faces rather big time 60 games in

[Bellhorn04]

The statement that Aviles has been 'poor' offensively is just wrong. His OPS is .708 compared to the average OPS of .665 for AL shortstops. And that's without even considering the 36 RBI.

 

I have no regrets about the Reddick trade. The Lowrie trade doesn't look too good because we don't know if Melancon will contribute anything. Most Sox fans always felt Lowrie could be a good hitter if he played every day and stayed healthy.

[redsoxrules]

Lets see what their numbers are at the end of the season and also see if Lowrie plays till the end of the season

[SoxSport]

The trades looked OK at the start, but haven't turned out OK. The management on this team right now is in disarray--from Henry on down. They brought it on themselves.

[a700hitter]

Lets see what their numbers are at the end of the season and also see if Lowrie plays till the end of the season

If Lworie got hit by a truck tomorrow, his number would hold up to make the trade favorable for theAstros. Melancon was a complete bust. He sucked in Spring Training, was so horrible when the seson started that he got sent down after 2 innings. Sure he is tearing up AAA, but there is no hint that he is going to be promoted any time soon.

 

Everyone knew Lowrie could hit. He is a big time hitter for a middle infieder. He's also versatile in the IF. He has had injury problems, but they sold low on him.

[evilhand]

The only reason Melancon hasn't been called up is that the pen has been too good for him to get the chance since he went down. He'll get another chance and every indication is that he's going to be much improved from what we saw at the start of the season. Lowrie, while tearing it up, is no better than Aviles defensively. The biggest knock on him has always been that he won't stick at short, so complaining that Aviles isn't good on defense is a non-starter. Neither is Lowrie.

 

As for these trades looking bad after 60 days... it's been 60 days! Let's look at where Reddick and Lowrie were after 60 days last season and where they ended up.

 

Lowrie had a .753 OPS on June 10th of 2011. He finished the season with a .685. Just a month earlier, it was at .864. He's a streaky hitter who has trouble staying healthy. He got really hot to start the year and sucked for the majority of it after that. If he keeps up a .900 OPS I'll be shocked. I wouldn't be surprised if he ended the year just below .800, which is still very good for a shortstop, but let's not pretend anyone was predicting a .900 OPS season from him at any point in the off season.

 

Reddick got called up later in the year, but had an .815 OPS after his 60th game. He finished at .784 and had a .670 OPS from July 10th until the end of the season. He's also a very streaky hitter and his overall line looked decent last year because he came out of the gate red hot.

 

He may have taken a step forward this year, but he will not finish the year with an .870 OPS and 38 HR (that's what he's on pace for). The Red Sox chose to move him because they were able to replace their closer with one just as good over the previous 3 years AND add a solid defensive replacement in the field with some upside in his bat (Sweeney). They also were able to sign Ross and had Kalish rehabbing, who has looked great in Pawtucket.

 

Both trades could certainly still end up in the Sox favor, though I think the best they can hope for with Lowrie/Melancon is a break even as I do think Lowrie is a strong offensive player for his position and will play just enough to keep reminding Sox fans that he's not in Boston anymore. I think Melancon will do fine in a set up role when he gets back, though.

[jung]

How quickly the tide turns from abundance of assets to shortage of assets. Did not have enough pitching last year to keep Lackey and his limp arm and Wake at his advanced age from starting an inordinate number of games while overextending the pen. This year the team at least has pitching options but has really had to rotate them in and out to make it work.

 

Thought we had enough outfielders and they went down like flies. However, you would still prefer the Sox to focus more effort on pitching and less on the everyday guys. While the Sox still needed to do a better job with the pitching, when you think about how many question marks they had there, it could have been much worse.

 

There pitching has not been stellar and it looked like a stretch that it was going to be stellar right from the start. However there was also the possibility that it would go right in the tank and that did not happen either. Bard was a more then adequate 5 until he just fell apart. Felix has been a terrific 4. So far at least their backend plan looks like it may pan out even with Bard's earlier than planned exit.

 

The front end has been totally reliant on three guys that have that their "issues". They had to pitch at or near their career bests for the bulk of the season and that has been the bigger gamble and the one that in the end may be their undoing. We talk regularly about their good moments and their bad but beyond those, if one of these three guys goes down to injury that puts them on the shelf beyond a 15 day DL, the Sox really don't have an answer.

[evilhand]

But how many teams can weather having two of their starters down for a significant amount of time? The number is pretty small. That kind of depth just doesn't exist. Lackey is out all year, so another starter going down for a long time would certainly hurt. They'd have to make a deadline trade in that case, or punt on the season if they felt they were too far back to make that worth it.

 

So yes, they're stretched a bit thin with Lackey already on the shelf and Bard crapping the bed, but most teams would be in the same position under similar circumstances. They have Cook for spot starts and could always shift Aceves back to the rotation in an emergency, but no, there aren't any great options if one of Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Doubront or Matsuzaka goes down with something serious.

 

Not sure how that's relevant to the Lowrie and Reddick trades, though, as neither involved sending a major league ready starting pitcher out. If anything, trading for Melancon, who was a pretty good closer last year for Houston, could have been intended to give them an arm they could replace Aceves with if he they had to move him. But that's a bit of a stretch.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If Lworie got hit by a truck tomorrow' date=' his number would hold up to make the trade favorable for theAstros. Melancon was a complete bust. He sucked in Spring Training, was so horrible when the seson started that he got sent down after 2 innings. [b']Sure he is tearing up AAA, but there is no hint that he is going to be promoted any time soon.

[/b]

Everyone knew Lowrie could hit. He is a big time hitter for a middle infieder. He's also versatile in the IF. He has had injury problems, but they sold low on him.

 

Maureen Mullen ‏@MaureenaMullen

Interesting. There has been a Mark Melancon sighting at Fenway. Stay tuned. #RedSoxTalk

 

:lol::lol:

[Bellhorn04]

The thing that's worrisome about Melancon is that there are reports that the Yankees lost him because they felt he just wasn't a bright lights kind of guy. And his first 2 outings for the Sox added far too much credibility to that notion.

[evilhand]

Sadly, it's because Rich Hill had to be DLed and is headed to see James Andrews again.

 

https://twitter.com/jtomase/status/211825746639978498

 

Rich Hill to DL, Melancon back up.

 

https://twitter.com/DidierMorais/status/211830703313268737

 

Rich Hill to see Dr. James Andrews tomorrow

[evilhand]

The thing that's worrisome about Melancon is that there are reports that the Yankees lost him because they felt he just wasn't a bright lights kind of guy. And his first 2 outings for the Sox added far too much credibility to that notion.

 

If it continues after his call up for a few more outings, I might give that thought some more credit, but two outings is a small enough sample that it doesn't really mean much at this point.

 

Of course, I tend to think the "can't handle the pressure of " is typically overblown, so I may require more proof than some to get thinking in that direction in the first place.

[mvp 78]

Rich Hill to the DL? That's the least surprising thing I've heard in a while.

[evilhand]

It actually is a bit surprising since guys who have Tommy John surgery typically don't need it again for at least a good number of years after the procedure, if at all. That he's being sent to Dr. Andrews is a really bad sign, but hopefully he's just prone to a bit of inflammation because of the procedure and they're just being extra careful with it.

 

If he needs to go under the knife again so soon, I have to imagine he'd be in pretty rare company in that regard.

[jung]

Lowrie and Reddick are everyday players. The Sox at least concentrated more effort in pitching depth this year which is what I said before discussing the pitching. So that was the tie to Lowrie/Reddick. I am glad that they got pitching even if it cost them everyday players which is what the trade off was here. However while they concentrated more effort in the pitching and rightfully so, they still left it lacking in my view as part of what is likely/hopefully a one year sabbatical on spending.

 

Lackey was gone way before this season started and Bard was always going to be a question mark going in but a #5 question mark.

 

The Sox needed 1,2 and 3 (Lester, Beckett, Buch) to pitch at or near their career potential numbers for the bulk of the season and stay off anything past a stint on the 15 day DL or the Sox had no answer.

 

The Sox could have brought in another pitcher....Lackey's situation had been known for months. They decided not to do that which simply put more pressure on 1,2 and 3 to do as I suggested.

 

I don't think you can really add Lackey into the mix for this year cause it had been known for a very long time that they were going to get nothing from Lackey this year and could have replaced him. The Sox surely had time to do something about another pitcher had they decided to do so. The fact that they don't have one, really putting the burden on the three guys at the top is on the Sox.

 

Beyond their actual performances, the Sox have no answer to any of their 1,2 or 3 pitchers in the rotation going down to injury for any period beyond the 15 day DL. The reason I think their exposure is somewhat more severe is that I think that would be the one thing that would kill their season.

 

Many teams would struggle if their 1 went down. The Tigers would be in a hell of a mess without Verlander for example. Rarely are teams so exposed relative to their top three that an injury to any one of them likely creates a critical situation.

 

As for the general situation regarding Lackey...I never thought the Sox should have brought him here in spite of what they had gotten from him before his injury and as it turns out the Lackey deal is one of the deals that seems to be a contributor to the Sox having tied off the purse strings for this year.

 

I did not think he would be worth his exorbitant salary pitching in the AL East and I think the fact that they found out about his elbow before signing the deal and still ended up signing him at exactly the same number negotiated to that point tells you something about how fast they were playing with that money. "Oh, your elbow is in disrepair. Well what the heck. Pitcher does not really need an elbow anyway. Sign here!" I say that tongue in cheek but the point is, I would not have signed him to that deal to come here if he was healthy.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Bailey deal I think will be completely fine for us. Reddick had a huge May (10 HR) and has been a an average corner OF producer the rest of the season and has cooled off significantly this month. Plus his lack of plate discipline will be exposed over the course of the full season.

 

Sweeney has been a nice pick up and is a little more versatile in the OF than Reddick. Bailey is one of the best CLs in the AL once he's on the field (and his current injury was of the fluke variety). And finally like I've said before, with Crawford/Ellsbury in LF/CF for the future, the Sox made the decision to keep Kalish over Reddick which I think is the right move in the long run.

 

Lowrie trade looks questionable, though Lowrie had a similar run like this in 2010 and then looked horrible the next year. Plus he'll always be a below-average fielder.

[evilhand]

The reason Lackey is relevant is that he'll be back in 2013 meaning there is no room in the rotation for a potential off season signee going into 2012 after year one. That means they needed to find someone willing to sign a 1 year deal for the budget they had allotted. Add to that your desire for that pitcher to be a quality pitcher and you have a catch 22 to some degree. Pitchers good enough to solidify a rotation for a contender aren't signing 1 year deals. They command multi-year investments.

 

This is an issue they created themselves, but it does give you a reason for why they didn't sign anyone better than Aaron Cook to support the staff from AAA.

 

If you have the name of an affordable pitcher good enough to solidify the staff who would have signed for one year, I'll adjust my stance accordingly. Otherwise, it's just wish-casting.

 

As for the Lackey signing in the first place, that was Theo's move. Laying that on Cherrington is like... well, the best analogy I can think of is a political one, so I'll just skip it.

[jung]

I did not lay it on Cherington... not even sure I would lay it entirely on Theo. I have never bought into the idea the Theo ever really got out from under LL. May have gotten more leeway but I just don't think LL gives up power other than giving up just enough to have a whipping boy if he needs one.

[Bellhorn04]

The reason Lackey is relevant is that he'll be back in 2013 meaning there is no room in the rotation for a potential off season signee going into 2012 after year one. That means they needed to find someone willing to sign a 1 year deal for the budget they had allotted. Add to that your desire for that pitcher to be a quality pitcher and you have a catch 22 to some degree. Pitchers good enough to solidify a rotation for a contender aren't signing 1 year deals. They command multi-year investments.

 

This is an issue they created themselves, but it does give you a reason for why they didn't sign anyone better than Aaron Cook to support the staff from AAA.

 

If you have the name of an affordable pitcher good enough to solidify the staff who would have signed for one year, I'll adjust my stance accordingly. Otherwise, it's just wish-casting.

 

At this point I wish they had signed Edwin Jackson. The Nats got him for one year for $11 million and he has been very solid so far.

[evilhand]

At this point I wish they had signed Edwin Jackson. The Nats got him for one year for $11 million and he has been very solid so far.

 

Yeah, it would have been nice, but the 11 million is what kept that from happening. I wish they'd opened the purse strings a bit for him as well, but they set a budget and did not want to go above it. Can't really fault them for it considering the luxury tax implications. You can fault them for getting into this position in the first place, but not for choosing to not compound the problem further.

 

I did not lay it on Cherington... not even sure I would lay it entirely on Theo. I have never bought into the idea the Theo ever really got out from under LL. May have gotten more leeway but I just don't think LL gives up power other than giving up just enough to have a whipping boy if he needs one.

 

Fair enough. I just don't see the discussion about Lackey's contract as being a mistake as all that relevant here. He's here and he's not going anywhere, so he needs to be taken into account when talking about roster construction.

[jung]

So if the Sox had gotten an additional pitcher at the point in time when Lackey came back/comes back, the Sox can not then make another trade if they have an abundance of pitching at that time?

 

When is one additional decent starting pitcher ever an abundance of pitching by the way?

 

Had they gotten a pitcher in the off season, lets say a 4, Bard would not have gone to the rotation. dice is done after this season. So hard to toss dice in the mix and say that the Sox would have been out to lunch having brought in another arm. Not even really sure what they are going to get out of dice this year.

 

It really does for the most part boil down to trying to stay under the LT cap and the original Lackey deal is probably the real fly in the ointment if you want to restrict the discussion to the money the Sox have tied up in pitching as it relates to the LT cap although they have moved the Lackey money around a bit as I recall. Nobody was twisting their arm though. These are decisions they are making.

[FredLynn]

The reason Lackey is relevant is that he'll be back in 2013 meaning there is no room in the rotation for a potential off season signee going into 2012 after year one. That means they needed to find someone willing to sign a 1 year deal for the budget they had allotted. Add to that your desire for that pitcher to be a quality pitcher and you have a catch 22 to some degree. Pitchers good enough to solidify a rotation for a contender aren't signing 1 year deals. They command multi-year investments.

 

This is an issue they created themselves, but it does give you a reason for why they didn't sign anyone better than Aaron Cook to support the staff from AAA.

 

If you have the name of an affordable pitcher good enough to solidify the staff who would have signed for one year, I'll adjust my stance accordingly. Otherwise, it's just wish-casting.

 

As for the Lackey signing in the first place, that was Theo's move. Laying that on Cherrington is like... well, the best analogy I can think of is a political one, so I'll just skip it.

 

Well, I guess they are just going to have to get creative in terms of who they keep in the rotation and who is jettisoned. We should have the money to sign one, maybe even two, of the primo SP FAs that will be available after this season is over. I really don't know HOW they could accomplish that but I think its essential to future success. Maybe they could eat some of Lackey's salary and trade him to an NL team where he might have more success. Maybe Epstein wants him on the Cubs; he sure wanted him on the Red Sox roster. It would be a real shame not to upgrade our rotation with all those very good SP becoming avaiable.

[jung]

There is the notion that there will be more SP available in this coming FA season than there has been in the past and while I am sure some or even many will be signed to their old teams especially in the era of two WC teams, there will still likely be more guys available to choose from this coming off season. That was likely part of the thinking that lead to postponing any additional activity on a SP this season. That is fine as far as it goes.

 

The point is the Sox are in something of a spot as far as their reliance on three guys that are not exactly bastions of dependability and really don't have an answer if one of them fails for some reason. That had to play into your thinking in the off season if you were trying to gauge the Sox and their chances this season.

[mvp 78]

At this point I wish they had signed Edwin Jackson. The Nats got him for one year for $11 million and he has been very solid so far.

 

Agreed. All the offseason talk about staying under the cap was smokescreen for ownership not wanting to spend more money. They figured they'd generate enough excitement for Fenway's anniversary that the product on the field wouldn't matter, imo.

[jung]

There certainly has been no lack of Sox promotional gimmicks this year. There seems to always be some newfangled thing to buy....a new cap every 10th game it seems, different jerseys, bricks, bats, kitchen sinks.......Holy Mother of God.

[Brennan]

I knew Reddick was playing well, but had no idea Lowrie was that good.

 

Reddick: .870OPS with 14HR and 30RBI

Lowrie: .920OPS with 12HR and 28RBI

 

Reddick would be leading the sox in HR right now, while Lowrie would be second. Lowrie would be 2nd in OPS while Reddick would be 3rd behind Ortiz and Salty. I am shocked that these guys are hitting as well as they are. And when you look at their positions on the sox, they could be so much more. Aviles has a ton of RBI, but has been overall poor defensively and offensively. While Lowrie would probably have turned those into more RBIs and has nearly 100 points on Aviles in OBP. Reddick, OTOH, has 14 more HRs than Sweeney and could have been a rock in RF where the sox have been playing Gonzalez. At the time, the trades were understandable, even downright good for the sox. But they are blowing up in their faces rather big time 60 games in

 

 

 

Again, your team sucks too, we are just making it really easy for them this year.

[jung]

Whenever the Yanks or Sox play one of these younger teams, especially if they feature pitching, either team just ends up looking like a bunch of beached walruses scratchin' at their blubber. Every once and awhile they get up the energy to Argh lustily at the ump over a strike call they did not like.

[jacksonianmarch]

Again' date=' your team sucks too, we are just making it really easy for them this year.[/quote']

 

If the Yankees suck, then every team in the al does since the yanks are tied for least losses in the AL

[Bellhorn04]

Man, I cringed when I saw Houston scored 11 runs today, but Lowrie was 0 for 5 with 3 K's.

[jung]

Yanks have more pitching....no question about that....not what they had though.....might be enough to make it.