The Youkilis Delusion?

[evilhand]

That they won a title is irrelevant in evaluating him as a player. His one good season last year is heavily outweighed by the rest of his career. While I tend to weigh recent seasons more heavily when I look at someone, 2011 was a clear outlier. In the four years leading up to 2011 he posted OPS's of:

 

2007: .562

2008: .726

2009: .621

2010: .615

 

His career OBP, even with 2011 dragging it up is .324 and he's never displayed any real power. It shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that he's sucked this year. I'm not sure what the thought process was when they offered him a contract... but two years? Really? It looked like a bad idea then, it's looking like a bad idea now.

[jung]

Cherington tends to get dinged for what he has not done but what was he supposed to do with no budget...I know....demand that his bosses spring with some cash!!! Ya' that was going to work...if he wanted to be unemployed!!

 

Punto seems like a piece that does not have a real place on the squad....can't say that he hits well enough here to be that sort of asset and does not really field well enough to be that sort of asset either. That said the team needed a utility infielder....how much do we really think we get from a utility infielder. You are talking about a player that you hope does not play......other than spelling somebody who is gassed now and again.

 

Win or lose do we really think we will be looking at the Punto deal as the make or break deal of the year?

[Bellhorn04]

That they won a title is irrelevant in evaluating him as a player.

 

I only pointed that out because you specifically said he had no business on a major league roster 'for a contender'.

[evilhand]

Win or lose do we really think we will be looking at the Punto deal as the make or break deal of the year?

 

No, but that doesn't mean his inclusion in the roster was anything other than a bad decision and somewhat baffling.

 

I only pointed that out because you specifically said he had no business on a major league roster 'for a contender'.

 

And I stand by that. Having been on a championship roster does not mean he belonged there. Sure, he happened to have a good year last year, but it was an outlier year and does not change the fact that he's going to be the worst hitter on most any team he plays for while providing mediocre defense at several positions. His entire career is built on grit and bunting.

[Bellhorn04]

No, but that doesn't mean his inclusion in the roster was anything other than a bad decision and somewhat baffling.

 

And I stand by that. Having been on a championship roster does not mean he belonged there. Sure, he happened to have a good year last year, but it was an outlier year and does not change the fact that he's going to be the worst hitter on most any team he plays for while providing mediocre defense at several positions. His entire career is built on grit and bunting.

 

His fielding numbers have been consistently good. Not sure why you're disregarding the numbers.

 

Anyway he's just a utility player. I agree the 2 years was surprising. But it's 1.5 million a year.

[evilhand]

His UZR over the last few years is better than I thought off the top of my head, so I'll give you that... but it's less that his role is of a utility player and more that he's chewing up a 25 man roster spot when there are internal options that have more upside that could have been used. The 1.5 million is immaterial in the end. But having Punto pinch hit instead of someone like Ciriaco.

 

But we've gotten way off track from the OT. So I'll stop my Punto rage.

[Elktonnick]

The FO made a huge error in not moving Youklis during the off season. In the end when he finally does go it will be for no material gain over what they would have obtained had they moved him during the offseason. Everyone in baseball knows what Youklis is or has become, good glove no hit if and when he plays. The rise of Middlebrooks points to the absurdity of not moving Youklis. Moreover keeping Youklis resulted in the Sox trading Scuturo for nothing. If they had kept Scuturo they wouldn't have needed Punto.

 

Face it this off season was a disaster, demostrating just how incompetent Cherrington and the "storied" baseball ops whiz kids are. Budget woes are a lame excuse for their utter incompetence.

[evilhand]

The FO made a huge error in not moving Youklis during the off season. In the end when he finally does go it will be for no material gain over what they would have obtained had they moved him during the offseason. Everyone in baseball knows what Youklis is or has become' date=' good glove no hit if and when he plays.[/b'] The rise of Middlebrooks points to the absurdity of not moving Youklis. Moreover keeping Youklis resulted in the Sox trading Scuturo for nothing. If they had kept Scuturo they wouldn't have needed Punto.

 

Face it this off season was a disaster, demostrating just how incompetent Cherrington and the vuanted baseball ops whiz kids are. Budget woes are a lame excuse for their utter incompetence.

 

I challenge you to back up the bolded bit about him being a no hit all glove player. That's one of the most ridiculous things I've read in a long time. And are you really suggesting this team would be stronger with a roster that replaces Youk with Scutaro and doesn't sign Punto?

 

Middlebrooks+Youk+Punto > Middlebrooks+Scutaro

 

There is simply no way to justify your claim to the contrary.

 

Edit: I'm heading out to a picnic, so if there is a response to this I'll get to it later tonight or tomorrow. I will point out, however, that over the last 365 days, Youk has a .833 OPS. Dinging him for a small sample size of weaker hitting during an injury and one bad week since returning is ridiculous.

[Bellhorn04]

The FO made a huge error in not moving Youklis during the off season. In the end when he finally does go it will be for no material gain over what they would have obtained had they moved him during the offseason. Everyone in baseball knows what Youklis is or has become' date=' good glove no hit if and when he plays. The rise of Middlebrooks points to the absurdity of not moving Youklis. [b']Moreover keeping Youklis resulted in the Sox trading Scuturo for nothing. If they had kept Scuturo they wouldn't have needed Punto.[/b]

 

Face it this off season was a disaster, demostrating just how incompetent Cherrington and the "storied" baseball ops whiz kids are. Budget woes are a lame excuse for their utter incompetence.

 

Your case for the Scutaro trade being a bad move is less than zero. Scutaro would have cost 6 million plus 40% luxury tax, and Aviles is playing better than Scutaro.

[jung]

At the time trading Scutaro was hard to fathom mainly because of the way it was presented. However with Aviles now in hand you really can't look back at it with remorse.

 

Punto in my view was a bad deal and I have said so in passing in the past. However, they needed to have somebody fill that role and I am not sure about filling it internally. You don't want a young player riding the pine waiting for something to happen so he gets a chance to play. The younger guys have to play to develop. So, I am not defending the Punto deal as much as I am saying they needed a utility infielder....Punto ended up being the guy. I wish they had put more thought into it and done otherwise but it is just not the sort of thing that has me wringing my hands.

[Elktonnick]

I challenge you to back up the bolded bit about him being a no hit all glove player. That's one of the most ridiculous things I've read in a long time. And are you really suggesting this team would be stronger with a roster that replaces Youk with Scutaro and doesn't sign Punto?

 

Middlebrooks+Youk+Punto > Middlebrooks+Scutaro

 

There is simply no way to justify your claim to the contrary.

 

Yes I am. Youklis is declining at the plate before our very eyes. His past performance is irrelevant. He isn't the player he was. So all those sabermetric stats are bs becuase they are what was not what is or what will be. Punto and Youklis suck at the plate. Middlebrooks Aviles Scuturo A-Gon and Pedroia are a stronger defensive and offensive infield than the combination of Middlebrooks Aviles Punto Youklis Pedroia and A-Gon especially when you add the fact the Middlebrooks Youklis and A-Gon can't and don't play in the infield simulataneously.

[evilhand]

Yes I am. Youklis is declining at the plate before our very eyes. His past performance is irrelevant. He isn't the player he was. So all those sabermetric stats are bs becuase they are what was not what is or what will be. Punto and Youklis suck at the plate. Middlebrooks Aviles Scuturo A-Gon and Pedroia are a stronger defensive and offensive infield than the combination of Middlebrooks Aviles Punto Youklis Pedroia and A-Gon especially when you add the fact the Middlebrooks Youklis and A-Gon can't and don't play in the infield simulataneously.

 

Again, I challenge you to back that up. You are complaining about a small sample size skewed heavily by an injury. Insisting he's not the player he was over and over is not backing up your claim, it's ranting. You'll have to bring something more to the table if you want to convince anyone of anything.

 

As for the Scutaro comment, a roster of Youkilis, Aviles, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Salty, Shoppach, Crawford (Nava for now), Ellsbury, Ross/Sweeney, Middlebrooks, Ortiz and Punto is stronger than Middlebrooks, Aviles, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Salty, Shoppach, Crawford, Ellsbury, Ross/Sweeney, Ortiz, Scutaro and ????.

 

Your point about the infield is voided by the fact that the team has been getting all of Middlebrooks, Youk and Gonzalez into the lineup at the same time without displacing Ortiz at DH. This team is stronger than the one where Scutaro was kept and Youk was shipped out.

 

Besides, if he has no value now, after a good return in May (and yes, a weak 10 days in June), how could he have had any value after ending 2011 injured? You're making no sense. Youk has to play to show he can stay healthy enough to be worth an investment.

 

And as I said above, he has an .833 OPS in the last 365 days so your claim that he is a no hit, good glove type player is horse crap.

[Elktonnick]

Your case for the Scutaro trade being a bad move is less than zero. Scutaro would have cost 6 million plus 40% luxury tax' date=' and Aviles is playing better than Scutaro.[/quote']

 

It isn't a question of Scutro vs Aviles that is misinformed analysis. It is Youklis vis a vis Scuturo. If you as the Red Sox were committed to moving an inflielder Youklis despite his ability to play 1st and third was the better choice to move because the Red Sox had several players who could play !st and 3rd and Youklis was blocking Middlebrooks development as we can see today. Plus as numerous writers pointed out Youklis was a problem in the clubhouse. The only way moving Scuturo made sense is if he was deemed to be the clubhouse snitch. In any case tthe problem is and remains Youklis. Not moving Youklis was a huge blunder. Signing Punto was a blunder. The loinger he stays the more the club suffrers.

[Elktonnick]

Again, I challenge you to back that up. You are complaining about a small sample size skewed heavily by an injury. Insisting he's not the player he was over and over is not backing up your claim, it's ranting. You'll have to bring something more to the table if you want to convince anyone of anything.

 

As for the Scutaro comment, a roster of Youkilis, Aviles, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Salty, Shoppach, Crawford (Nava for now), Ellsbury, Ross/Sweeney, Middlebrooks, Ortiz and Punto is stronger than Middlebrooks, Aviles, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Salty, Shoppach, Crawford, Ellsbury, Ross/Sweeney, Ortiz, Scutaro and ????.

 

Your point about the infield is voided by the fact that the team has been getting all of Middlebrooks, Youk and Gonzalez into the lineup at the same time without displacing Ortiz at DH. This team is stronger than the one where Scutaro was kept and Youk was shipped out.

 

Besides, if he has no value now, after a good return in May (and yes, a weak 10 days in June), how could he have had any value after ending 2011 injured? You're making no sense. Youk has to play to show he can stay healthy enough to be worth an investment.

 

And as I said above, he has an .833 OPS in the last 365 days so your claim that he is a no hit, good glove type player is horse crap.

 

He has less value now than he did in September. The longer he plays the more chance he has of getting injured again. As I said your stats are meaningless when it comes to Youklis because he is getting worse not better just like JD Drew did.

[Bellhorn04]

It isn't a question of Scutro vs Aviles that is misinformed analysis. It is Youklis vis a vis Scuturo. If you as the Red Sox were committed to moving an inflielder Youklis despite his ability to play 1st and third was the better choice to move because the Red Sox had several players who could play !st and 3rd and Youklis was blocking Middlebrooks development as we can see today. Plus as numerous writers pointed out Youklis was a problem in the clubhouse. The only way moving Scuturo made sense is if he was deemed to be the clubhouse snitch. In any case tthe problem is and remains Youklis. Not moving Youklis was a huge blunder. Signing Punto was a blunder. The loinger he stays the more the club suffrers.

 

It's easy to say 'not moving Youkilis was a huge blunder', but as has been pointed out, he wouldn't have had much trade value in the offseason. They would have gotten very little back and would probably have had to eat most of his salary.

 

As for the problem in the clubhouse stuff, that's all speculation by the writers.

[Elktonnick]

It's easy to say 'not moving Youkilis was a huge blunder', but as has been pointed out, he wouldn't have had much trade value in the offseason. They would have gotten very little back and would probably have had to eat most of his salary.

 

As for the problem in the clubhouse stuff, that's all speculation by the writers.

 

 

The informed speculation by writers who travel with the club and several who have collaborated with players on books. You can deny the writers expertise if it gives you comfort. But the facts are there. The market for Youklis is a bear market. They'll never get full value for him and it is better to cut their loses now rather than later. He is gone it is just a question of the damage that is done before he goes. This team will never get right until it stops placating their non producing overpaid entitled veterans at the expense of their future.

[jung]

This team will never get right until it stops placating their non producing overpaid entitled veterans at the expense of their future.

 

What???? Blasphemy!!!! Would it really be the Red Sox if they did not have a preponderance of overpaid stars stretched out on their lounges with bathing beauties hand feeding them their grapes. Tongue in cheek again but the Sox make themselves such an easy target.

[Elktonnick]

What???? Blasphemy!!!! Would it really be the Red Sox if they did not have a preponderance of overpaid stars stretched out on their lounges with bathing beauties hand feeding them their grapes. Tongue in cheek again but the Sox make themselves such an easy target.

 

Agreed but some fans also enable that behavior.

[Bellhorn04]

The informed speculation by writers who travel with the club and several who have collaborated with players on books. You can deny the writers expertise if it gives you comfort. But the facts are there.

 

Look, on the one hand you are speculating that Scutaro may have been traded because he was the clubhouse snitch. So if Youkilis was that big a problem, why wouldn't they have unloaded him?

 

It's all guessy-guessy stuff, Nick. Conspiracy theorizing.

[jung]

Even the speculation about why was probably generated out of the Sox having such a lame rationalization for moving Scuts in the first place...."we thought we could eventually deploy the $6M better elsewhere?" Well....where, you must have an idea??

 

"Actually we don't as yet but that was our thinking........Next question."

[Elktonnick]

Look, on the one hand you are speculating that Scutaro may have been traded because he was the clubhouse snitch. So if Youkilis was that big a problem, why wouldn't they have unloaded him?

 

It's all guessy-guessy stuff, Nick. Conspiracy theorizing.

 

Again you misquote me. You aren't precise in your analysis What I said was the only way the Scuturo trade makes sense since they got nothing in return was if he was the clubhouse snitch. The Scuturo trade still doesn't make sense. What have they done with the whopping 6 million they saved? Wasted 2 of it on Punto that leaves 4 . They would have been better served if they unloaded Youklis. They didn't unload Youklis because Cherrington is an incompetent fool.

[seabeachfred]

Again, I challenge you to back that up. You are complaining about a small sample size skewed heavily by an injury. Insisting he's not the player he was over and over is not backing up your claim, it's ranting. You'll have to bring something more to the table if you want to convince anyone of anything.

 

As for the Scutaro comment, a roster of Youkilis, Aviles, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Salty, Shoppach, Crawford (Nava for now), Ellsbury, Ross/Sweeney, Middlebrooks, Ortiz and Punto is stronger than Middlebrooks, Aviles, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Salty, Shoppach, Crawford, Ellsbury, Ross/Sweeney, Ortiz, Scutaro and ????.

 

Your point about the infield is voided by the fact that the team has been getting all of Middlebrooks, Youk and Gonzalez into the lineup at the same time without displacing Ortiz at DH. This team is stronger than the one where Scutaro was kept and Youk was shipped out.

 

Besides, if he has no value now, after a good return in May (and yes, a weak 10 days in June), how could he have had any value after ending 2011 injured? You're making no sense. Youk has to play to show he can stay healthy enough to be worth an investment.

 

And as I said above, he has an .833 OPS in the last 365 days so your claim that he is a no hit, good glove type player is horse crap.

 

The fact is as long as Youkilis is on the team the longer we are going to have a fractured lineup. Gonzales is one of the best first baseman in baseball and imo he has been hurt by being jerked off between first and the outfield. You think the Yankees would do that to Teixeira in order to keep some sacred cow that no longer can do the job? We will never get much for Youkilis. There is little market for him and one team, the D'Backs have already dropped out. In addition, we keep jerking our top prospect around and we might find that Middlebrooks becomes our infield version of Bard, who is now thoroughly and utterly ruined beyond hope of recovery. Youk has to be traded so we can put our best team on the field and start the process of rebuilding our team. Each day the putrid Pukington delays this move means we go deeper in the tank. And make no mistake about it, the team is once again in the tank.

[seabeachfred]

Agreed but some fans also enable that behavior.

 

Yes and we have two of those types on this thread, one who can't help himself since he is part of that horse dung board where every day is a skip over the yellow brick road and pollyanna reigns supreme. Half the guys there don't know s*** about the game and the other half that do deny reality into believing that black is white. The other guy should know better. We call it Yawkeyism over on the o ther one we post on and to me that mindset of protecting and nurturing the sacred cows on our team is alive and well in 2012.

 

Youkilis has to go so we can start rebuilding at the same time we finally put our best players on the field.

[evilhand]

He has less value now than he did in September. The longer he plays the more chance he has of getting injured again. As I said your stats are meaningless when it comes to Youklis because he is getting worse not better just like JD Drew did.

 

If you honestly think he's dropping off a cliff like Drew did last year, you're an idiot. Your only defense of this stance is to dismiss any and all evidence since everything that exists works against you. In short, you're sticking your fingers in your ears and shouting at the world.

 

If your goal is to get me to stop taking you seriously and start ignoring you, congratulations... you win.

 

The fact is as long as Youkilis is on the team the longer we are going to have a fractured lineup. Gonzales is one of the best first baseman in baseball and imo he has been hurt by being jerked off between first and the outfield. You think the Yankees would do that to Teixeira in order to keep some sacred cow that no longer can do the job? We will never get much for Youkilis. There is little market for him and one team' date=' the D'Backs have already dropped out. In addition, we keep jerking our top prospect around and we might find that Middlebrooks becomes our infield version of Bard, who is now thoroughly and utterly ruined beyond hope of recovery. Youk has to be traded so we can put our best team on the field and start the process of rebuilding our team. Each day the putrid Pukington delays this move means we go deeper in the tank. And make no mistake about it, the team is once again in the tank.[/quote']

 

You have zero evidence to back up either the claim that Youkilis can't do his job or that Middlebrooks is going to forget how to hit because he's... well, um... I'm not even sure what you're trying to say here. Middlebrooks isn't being asked to play another position, he's not being asked to change his mechanics or do anything other than what he's done since he was drafted... play 3rd base and swing a bat.

 

You also can't back up the claim that Bard is "ruined beyond hope of recovery." There are several possible reasons for his struggles, and even if it is a matter of him not being suited for a starting role, he recovered from a poor run as a starter in single A just fine, there is zero reason to think he can't recover from this.

[FredLynn]

Look, on the one hand you are speculating that Scutaro may have been traded because he was the clubhouse snitch. So if Youkilis was that big a problem, why wouldn't they have unloaded him?

 

It's all guessy-guessy stuff, Nick. Conspiracy theorizing.

 

Because our FO is inept and slow to react? Thats a reasonable explanation for the continued infection Youkilis is perpetrating on this franchise.

Got news for you Bob: by the time this FO makes the necessary moves for us to compete for a playoff spot this year, we will be so far behind that it won't even matter. We could already be there.

[Elktonnick]

If you honestly think he's dropping off a cliff like Drew did last year, you're an idiot. Your only defense of this stance is to dismiss any and all evidence since everything that exists works against you. In short, you're sticking your fingers in your ears and shouting at the world.

 

If your goal is to get me to stop taking you seriously and start ignoring you, congratulations... you win.

 

 

 

You have zero evidence to back up either the claim that Youkilis can't do his job or that Middlebrooks is going to forget how to hit because he's... well, um... I'm not even sure what you're trying to say here. Middlebrooks isn't being asked to play another position, he's not being asked to change his mechanics or do anything other than what he's done since he was drafted... play 3rd base and swing a bat.

 

You also can't back up the claim that Bard is "ruined beyond hope of recovery." There are several possible reasons for his struggles, and even if it is a matter of him not being suited for a starting role, he recovered from a poor run as a starter in single A just fine, there is zero reason to think he can't recover from this.

 

Youk's stats are dropping off a cliff. Your so called evidence is all in the past. Calling me names won't change the facts that Youk is following the same career path as JD Drew. Besides you can ignore me or not at your pleasure makes no matter to me. What you post isn't that insightful to begin with.

[FredLynn]

If you honestly think he's dropping off a cliff like Drew did last year, you're an idiot.

 

I assure you that Nick is no idiot.

Youkilis began his drop off the cliff nearly a year ago, on July 15, the ASB of last year. Here are his statistics from before the ASB, after the ASB, and year to date: BA/OPS/%BBs/%Ks

 

Before ASB: .285/.911/13.7%/19%

After ASB: .199/.660/12.1%/20%

Year to date: .231/.681/8%/27%

 

Thats dropping off a cliff to me, and its been almost a year. How much longer do we wait until we give WMB a chance?

[Elktonnick]

If you honestly think he's dropping off a cliff like Drew did last year' date=' you're an idiot.[/i']

 

I assure you that Nick is no idiot.

Youkilis began his drop off the cliff nearly a year ago, on July 15, the ASB of last year. Here are his statistics from before the ASB, after the ASB, and year to date: BA/OPS/%BBs/%Ks

 

Before ASB: .285/.911/13.7%/19%

After ASB: .199/.660/12.1%/20%

Year to date: .231/.681/8%/27%

 

Thats dropping off a cliff to me, and its been almost a year. How much longer do we wait until we give WMB a chance?

 

Pumpsie, you should know to these apologists nearly a year is too small a sample. Do not confuse the poor lad with facts, He has sabermetrics and advanced statistics to comfort him.

[FredLynn]

Pumpsie' date=' you should know to these apologists nearly a year is too small a sample. Do not confuse the poor lad with facts, He has sabermetrics and advanced statistics to comfort him.[/quote']

 

Actually, Nick, I find Evilhand's posts to be generally logical and well thought out, though I may disagree with him. Both of you are good posters here. I would be interested to see why he doesn't think Youkilis has dropped off a cliff as the stats I provided seem to indicate.

Off to get the sunset run in. Frustrating times for Red Sox fans. The outlook is bleak.

[evilhand]

Thats dropping off a cliff to me, and its been almost a year. How much longer do we wait until we give WMB a chance?

 

The majority of his post ASB numbers include his time injured, so I don't really see your point. You're essentially arguing that he doesn't play as well while he's hurt. To that I say: "No s***."

 

Look, the case for him falling off a cliff cannot be made right now. If he stays healthy the rest of the year and keeps up a .600 OPS, you'll have a case. For now, you have a year plagued with injuries. There is no evidence that he can't hit when healthy, and no, 16 games since he got back does not prove anything. He flashed a hot bat for a bit, then cooled off again.

 

I'll be shocked if he doesn't return to hitting well. He's 33, not 37. This argument that he can do nothing but hurt the team and his value by playing is based on nothing substantial.

 

As for Elktonnick, his response to being presented with statistical evidence was to dismiss it because... well, because it works against him. He's ignoring evidence to cling to a gut feeling. He literally said that statistical evidence is irrelevant in analyzing Youk. He's embracing ignorance.

 

And the Drew comp is moronic. He actually played for a year at a significantly lower production level and saw his peripherals actually drop for a year before he collapsed into mediocrity. His walk rate dropped from 17.3 to 15.2 to 11.0% from 2008-2010.

 

Youkilis, even in a down year last year (due to injury) still had a steady walk rate. This year we're looking at an injury early suppressing his production, so the 8% walk rate may very well be a small sample size issue compounded by an injury.

 

Additionally, in Drew's last two years his O-Swing rate jumped up from 15.4 to 20.6 and then 25.9%. It was not accompanied by an increase in his O-Contact rate. In short, his ability to recognize pitch types and locations declined and he started chasing bad pitches.

 

Youkilis, on the other hand, has not seen his O-Swing rate increase in a meaningful way. 22.3 to 19.2 to 21.4 to 23.6% last year, then 20.1 so far this year. His O-Contact rate has been down so far this year, which is (again) likely skewed by his injury. There is no evidence that Youk's ability to identify the type and location of a pitch has declined making the two cases nothing alike aside from both guys having trouble with injuries.

 

So again, the only real knock on Youk is that he needs to prove he can be healthy, and the only way to do that is to play him. Arguing that the team is better off sitting him or dumping him for pennies on the dollar is uninformed and poorly reasoned.