5/30 Tigers vs Red Sox

[evilhand]

Considering that the injury fairy has cornered us in an alley' date=' raped us, and left us bleeding in the trunk of a Buick under the overpass. I'd say two games over the line is pretty good.[/quote']

 

Not to mention the team is only 2.5 back of first place in the division.

[User Name]

Actually, as with any fielding bible stat, someone watches each pitch and judges it based on what they see, not what the ump calls. And with pitchfx data so easily available, it's not hard to weed out the bad calls. But that's besides the point. What you're saying here is screw the evidence we actually have, we should all just trust what your eyes are telling us. How is that a better approach than using the data that exists?

 

What we do have says Salty is slightly better than average at receiving pitches.

 

Because the statistic is not accurate enough to present a clear picture. I'm sorry, it's just not.

 

Why should we expect him to regress to his career line? Why are his age 22-25 seasons predictive? At that age, many players struggle. Never mind catchers, who are notorious for developing later. His lines since joining the Sox (age 26 and 27) seem far better if we're trying to figure out what to expect.

 

.235/.288/.450

.274/.311/.573

 

Taking into account that he's 27 years old, the typical start of a player's prime years, I see no reason to expect a heavy drop in performance. Is he as good as he's been since getting hit on the ear? No, of course not. He's on a hot streak and will cool off. And he's a streaky hitter, so he'll have some bad cold spells before the season is over. But there's a pretty good chance his pop is for real and that makes him one of the more valuable catchers in the majors.

 

Would I trade him for Buster Posey? Sure. But a trade like that isn't on the block and the actual possible replacements would bring far less to the table than a guy who hit the ball as hard as Salty. Would you seriously rather have a Lavarnway/Shoppach platoon? If you think Salty is a bad receiver, you're in for a treat with Lavarnway. Plus, after a monster season in the minors last year, Lavarnway is only hitting. .274/.376/.384 on the year. So you'd be trading power for OBP.

 

Right now, the combination of Salty and Shoppach is one of the best catching situations in the majors. Suggesting that Salty is some kind of problem that absolutely has to go is ridiculous.

 

The guys at fangraphs.com think his power is real and it's coming at an age you'd expect him to break out. Why should we assume he can't keep being one of the best power hitting catchers out there? This is the second season we've seen impressive power from him in a row, and there's a clear progression over the last 3.

 

And you point to his LD rate as heavily inflated and his HR/FB rate as unsustainable. His current 25.3 LD% isn't really an outlier, though. He was at 21.3% last year, 23.2% in 2009 and 27.2% in 2008. 2007 was his rookie season at age 22 and 2010 only had 30 total PAs, so neither is relevant here.

 

In short, he's always had solid line drive rates and if he has broken out over the last season and two months, there's no reason to assume that rate is going to drop. As for his HR/FB, it's slightly inflated due to the ridiculous hot streak he's been on since getting hit in the ear, but expecting it to drop significantly seems pessimistic unless you are dismissing the possibility that he's breaking out at the age you'd expect him to break out.

 

At best, he's finally living up to his potential and is becoming one of the best catchers in the game. At worst he's a streaky hitter who, when used in a platoon can provide solid offensive value while being slightly above average at receiving pitches according to the data that is available.

 

Seems like he's a far cry from some huge problem the Sox need to shed themselves of as quickly as possible.

 

Not his career line, which is awful and i never mentioned. But rather a baseline similar to what he did last year.

 

I'd agree with the "living up to his potential" hype if it wasn't for his inflated LD% and HR/FB%. A 4% increase on line drives for a guy who strikes out as much as Salty really impacts his rate stat. You're giving me all this stat talk yet ignoring the stats.

 

Also, he is not an above-average receiver. He just isn't.

[TutGadol]

At least W/L measures an outcome of some kind. A quality start is just an arbitrary number of innings and an arbitrary number of earned runs that supposedly mean a start was good. But yes, wins and losses are pretty useless, as is the save.

 

Lots of stats really don't mean much.

 

I saw a stat once about quality starts, the average era for one was 1.91. While I don't know the average ERA for a winning pitcher, I doubt if it is lower (See Hernandez in his Cy Young winning year).

 

It especially annoys me since pitchers have a simple stat (ERA) that melts down their performance into one number fairly effectively, unlike hitters who lack such (You could say OPS, however it strongly favors power and doesn't factor in defense or base running)

 

And saves do mean something As long as you're considering SVOs. Since the closer pitches the ending of the game it doesn't really matter how good he was as long as he handed his team the win, unlike a starter who could give 5 runs, stand as the winning pitcher, but leave the game with his team leading only 6-5 in the 5th inning.

[User Name]

W/L is one of the worst statistics imaginable. At least QS is consistent.

 

Think about it: You can pitch a one-run complete game and lose, yet allow 8 runs in 5 IP and win.

[User Name]

It will be as good as the pitching is and no better. We were always going to score runs. Our problem was always pitching' date=' as it has been for years. We remain in 13th place in the AL in that department, and we are a total of two (thats 2) games over .500. I would say that the performance to date is mediocre but improving. Sorry to rain on your parade.[/quote']

 

You keep mentioning our "spot" in ERA in the league like it matters. It's May.

[FredLynn]

Considering that the injury fairy has cornered us in an alley' date=' raped us, and left us bleeding in the trunk of a Buick under the overpass. I'd say two games over the line is pretty good.[/quote']

 

I don't think so at all. We are still second in the AL in runs scored despite the fact that our injuries to the position players have decimated our outfield and affected our infield too. We are scoring runs. On the other hand we have had only one significant injury to our pitching staff: our closer is out. The problem with this team is that the pitchers have not done their jobs despite being, for the most part, healthy. I don't find this performance acceptable at all, even though its improving.

[FredLynn]

You keep mentioning our "spot" in ERA in the league like it matters. It's May.

 

Yeah, stats are a bitch.

I could also mention that we are still in last place.

[evilhand]

Because the statistic is not accurate enough to present a clear picture. I'm sorry' date=' it's just not.[/quote']

 

Says who? You? Why should I take your word on it over the people at the fielding bible? What makes your evaluation of Salty more trustworthy?

 

Not his career line' date=' which is awful and i never mentioned. But rather a baseline similar to what he did last year.[/quote']

 

You never mentioned his career line? What does this mean, then?

 

As for his offense, he's currently above average, but he's actually hitting over his head if you take career norms into account.

 

Sounds like you're using his career stats to back your argument to me.

 

I'd agree with the "living up to his potential" hype if it wasn't for his inflated LD% and HR/FB%. A 4% increase on line drives for a guy who strikes out as much as Salty really impacts his rate stat. You're giving me all this stat talk yet ignoring the stats.

 

I'm not paying attention to the stats? Did you even read my post? I specifically addressed your concerns with his line drive rate and his HR/FB rate. His LD% isn't out of what with what he's done during his career, even in years where he wasn't otherwise producing, and his HR/FB rate is certainly inflated a little due to the hot streak of the last week or so, but expecting it to drop significantly is assuming he's not taking another step forward this year.

 

So I'll ask differently. Why are you assuming he's not taking steps forward last year and this year? He's 27 years old. This is exactly when we should be seeing this kind of improvement from him.

 

Also' date=' he is not an above-average receiver. He just isn't.[/quote']

 

So we're back to having to trust your eyes over the data that exists? Look, if your position is "I think he sucks and nothing you can say will change my mind" just come out and say it and we can agree to disagree. If we're looking at the data that is actually available, though, he's certainly above average and arguably becoming one of the top catchers in the majors.

 

Dumping him right now would be insane.

[evilhand]

I don't think so at all. We are still second in the AL in runs scored despite the fact that our injuries to the position players have decimated our outfield and affected our infield too. We are scoring runs. On the other hand we have had only one significant injury to our pitching staff: our closer is out. The problem with this team is that the pitchers have not done their jobs despite being' date=' for the most part, healthy. I don't find this performance acceptable at all, even though its improving.[/quote']

 

This is a little off, don't you think? We have two starting pitchers who haven't made a start yet this year and our closer has been out all year.

 

If Lackey and Matsuzaka are both healthy and pitching like they can when healthy, both Bard and Doubront probably start the year in the pen, which strengthens both the rotation and the bullpen considerably.

 

Last year Lackey was the worst starter in the majors, but he was also pitching with a shredded elbow all season. If he's even at his 2010 levels, this rotation is stronger. And Matsuzaka as the 5th starter at his 2007-2010 levels is about what Doubront has given us so far, so we don't lose much if anything there, and we get a strong lefty added to the pen.

 

I'd say injuries have quite a lot to do with the pitching struggles.

[FredLynn]

This is a little off, don't you think? We have two starting pitchers who haven't made a start yet this year and our closer has been out all year.

 

If Lackey and Matsuzaka are both healthy and pitching like they can when healthy, both Bard and Doubront probably start the year in the pen, which strengthens both the rotation and the bullpen considerably.

 

Last year Lackey was the worst starter in the majors, but he was also pitching with a shredded elbow all season. If he's even at his 2010 levels, this rotation is stronger. And Matsuzaka as the 5th starter at his 2007-2010 levels is about what Doubront has given us so far, so we don't lose much if anything there, and we get a strong lefty added to the pen.

 

I'd say injuries have quite a lot to do with the pitching struggles.

 

Are you really going to say that adding Lackey and DiceK would strengthen our pitching?

 

John Lackey ERA/WHIP with the Red Sox: 5.26/1.504

John Lackey ERA/WHIP last year: 6.41/1.619 (*worst ERA in the AL)

Daisuke Matsusaka ERA/WHIP with the Red Sox: 4.25/1.397

Daisuke Matsusaka ERA/WHIP in 2010, his last full season here: 4.69/1.373

 

Daniel Bard ERA/WHIP this year: 4.56/1.538

Felix Doubront ERA/WHIP this year: 3.86/1.387

 

Bard and Doubront as our #5 and 4 SP are an IMPROVEMENT by far over Matsusaka and Lackey, who stinks. We improved by subtraction. The arguement that we would be stronger with Lackey in the rotation is ludicrous and weak with regard to DiceK when compared to our current #4 and 5 SP. Yes, the pen would be better with Bard in it (Doubront is an ineffective relief pitcher: career .884 OPSa as a RP vs .724 as a SP), but that is outweighed by the huge Lackey effect.

Give me a break: Lackey was the WORST AL PITCHER IN ERA last year of all pitchers who threw more than 100 innings. He stunk; he will keep stinking when he gets back. Yes, his elbow was shredded last year, but even when he was healthy, he was less than excellent-and worse than Doubront. I am happy not to see him in the rotation.

[evilhand]

Are you really going to say that adding Lackey and DiceK would strengthen our pitching?

~snip for space~

 

You're ignoring the bulk of my argument for Lackey. The numbers you posted include last year, when he pitched with a shredded elbow. 2010 Lackey put up a line of 4.40/1.42 and pitched much better in the second half than in the first. More importantly, his FIP was 3.85 and his xFIP was 4.15 while amassing 4.1 WAR.

 

2010 Lackey was a good, not great pitcher. A healthy Lackey in 2012 is much more likely to resemble that than the disaster we got in 2011. That's about an even swap for Bard.

 

Then we have Doubront and Matsuzaka. Once again we have a guy who's 2011 was ended due to a shredded elbow. So we should remove that data when trying to figure out what to expect going forward. Using his 2010 as a starting point, we're looking at a similar WHIP to what Doubront has put up and a bit of a decline in ERA. And if we look beyond ERA, we see Matsuzaka with a 4.05 FIP and a 4.54 xFIP. Doubront is at 3.70 for FIP and 3.55 for xFIP.

 

So yeah, we're going to see a bit of a drop in performance, but we also need to take into account that Doubront won't be able to stay in the rotation all year. He's going to need to be moved to the pen at some point in the somewhat near future due to an innings limit. Matsuzaka is capable of providing a full season of starting and I'd imagine their WAR totals would be similar if Doubront pitched part of the year in the rotation and part in the pen while Matsuzaka had started (while healthy) all year.

 

Of course, that's only part of my argument. The other part is that being able to move Bard and Doubront into the pen would significantly improve the pens performance on the year.

 

Yes, we'd still have Buchholz struggling and Lester would still be scuffling, but saying that the losses of Matsuzaka and Lackey have had no negative impact on the 2012 season seems a bit short sighted to me.

[iortiz]

Yeah, stats are a bitch.

I could also mention that we are still in last place.

 

May, June, July, whatever...

I simply do not see our pitching staff ending in the top 5 or say, even top 8 anyway.

[FredLynn]

You're ignoring the bulk of my argument for Lackey. The numbers you posted include last year, when he pitched with a shredded elbow. 2010 Lackey put up a line of 4.40/1.42 and pitched much better in the second half than in the first. More importantly, his FIP was 3.85 and his xFIP was 4.15 while amassing 4.1 WAR.

 

2010 Lackey was a good, not great pitcher. A healthy Lackey in 2012 is much more likely to resemble that than the disaster we got in 2011. That's about an even swap for Bard.

 

Then we have Doubront and Matsuzaka. Once again we have a guy who's 2011 was ended due to a shredded elbow. So we should remove that data when trying to figure out what to expect going forward. Using his 2010 as a starting point, we're looking at a similar WHIP to what Doubront has put up and a bit of a decline in ERA. And if we look beyond ERA, we see Matsuzaka with a 4.05 FIP and a 4.54 xFIP. Doubront is at 3.70 for FIP and 3.55 for xFIP.

 

So yeah, we're going to see a bit of a drop in performance, but we also need to take into account that Doubront won't be able to stay in the rotation all year. He's going to need to be moved to the pen at some point in the somewhat near future due to an innings limit. Matsuzaka is capable of providing a full season of starting and I'd imagine their WAR totals would be similar if Doubront pitched part of the year in the rotation and part in the pen while Matsuzaka had started (while healthy) all year.

 

Of course, that's only part of my argument. The other part is that being able to move Bard and Doubront into the pen would significantly improve the pens performance on the year.

 

Yes, we'd still have Buchholz struggling and Lester would still be scuffling, but saying that the losses of Matsuzaka and Lackey have had no negative impact on the 2012 season seems a bit short sighted to me.

 

I will say this: at least you are able to support your position with some statistics. That makes your opinion more valid than stuff like "I think this is a great team" and the like. You have chosen the statistics that support what you think is true, and I chose the ones that support what I think is true. I absolutely disagree with your assertion that by adding John Lackey back into the rotation we improve it; Matsusaka is more of a tossup, especially if by adding him we send Bard back to the pen, where he excels. Lackey has NEVER pitched well at Fenway Park. His career OPSa there is .832 with a BAA of .300 in 44 total games. Those are horrible numbers, and thats why I think he is never going to do well with the Red Sox-because he never has done well at our park, even when his elbow was intact. And at the other parks of our main rivals in the ALE his OPSa is .808 (Yankee Stadium) and .866 (the Trop). So most of his games are going to be pitched at stadiums where he has never done well and maintains OPSa of over

.800. Hard for me to understand your support of John Lackey pitching for the Red Sox in the ALE.

[ORS]

I will say this: at least you are able to support your position with some statistics. That makes your opinion more valid than stuff like "I think this is a great team" and the like. You have chosen the statistics that support what you think is true, and I chose the ones that support what I think is true. I absolutely disagree with your assertion that by adding John Lackey back into the rotation we improve it; Matsusaka is more of a tossup, especially if by adding him we send Bard back to the pen, where he excels. Lackey has NEVER pitched well at Fenway Park. His career OPSa there is .832 with a BAA of .300 in 44 total games. Those are horrible numbers, and thats why I think he is never going to do well with the Red Sox-because he never has done well at our park, even when his elbow was intact. And at the other parks of our main rivals in the ALE his OPSa is .808 (Yankee Stadium) and .866 (the Trop). So most of his games are going to be pitched at stadiums where he has never done well and maintains OPSa of over

.800. Hard for me to understand your support of John Lackey pitching for the Red Sox in the ALE.

There's a couple of problems with your "Fenway Park" reasoning re: Lackey contributing to the Sox under this contract.

 

One, every one of his starts in Fenway prior to signing with the Sox was against one of the best offenses in the league, lead by one of the best middle of the order duos we've seen in quite some time with Ortiz/Manny. This isn't against a normal distribution of competition, but always against an elite offense. That skews things a bit, and it accounts for 9 of the 44, over 20% of the sample.

 

Two, the remaining 35 starts were 18/17 in 2010/2011, meaning about half of the remaining data is tainted by him pitching through an injury in 2011.

 

About 60% of the data you are using to reach your conclusion isn't really representative of normal conditions.

 

I'll admit, the guy's name is like Judas to me. Can't stand him, both for his performance and attitude. That said, he'll be coming back from TJ next year, and it's reasonably possible that he his a solid contributor to the 2013 pitching staff. He's got the track record when healthy, and he'll have ample time to rehab prior to ST next year.

[evilhand]

The problem with using OPSa at Fenway is that he was always pitching against the Red Sox who are always one of the top offenses in baseball. He's not playing the Red Sox every time he starts there anymore. He'll face the Yankees and the Rangers on occasion, sure, but he also gets to face teams like Seattle. So I don't think OPSa for his career at Fenway is really a valid way to evaluate him.

 

Pointing to OPSa at Yankee Stadium and the Trop is certainly more valid, but again, historically he's faced really good offenses at each. The Rays aren't as good an offensive team this year and the Yankees are the Yankees, so they'll always hit. But I'd argue that most pitchers have higher OPSa in places like Yankee Stadium.

 

Look, I'm not arguing Lackey is likely to be an ace. There was enough decline in her peripherals before he was signed to suggest that the "ace" like performances in LAA were not likely to continue. What I'm arguing is that he can be what we saw in 2010 which is a valuable guy. Good, not great.

 

And my overall point isn't just about the rotation. It's about the pitching staff as a whole. I think the probable decline in performance in the rotation going from Doubront/Bard to Lackey/Matsuzaka is more than offset by the likely improvement from moving Doubront and Bard to the pen.

 

A rotation of Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Lackey and Matsuzaka with a pen of Bailey, Bard, Aceves, Melancon, Hill, Miller and whomever is performing best out of Padilla, Morales, Albers, Atchinson or Tazawa (I like Tazawa a lot) is better than a rotation of Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Bard with a pen of Bailey, Aceves, Melancon, Hill, Miller, Padilla, and whomever is performing best of the rest, IMO.

 

If you want to focus on the rotation and the rotation only, and only on the season up to this point, then I agree that Lackey and Matsuzaka was not likely to be an improvement over what Doubront and Bard have given us, though that mostly has to do with Doubront performing better than most thought he would. I mean, I certainly didn't expect him to muscle his way into the discussion for a permanent spot in the rotation from 2013 on. But that's exactly what he did.

 

Edit: ORS beat me to the point about pitching against the Sox in Fenway.

[FredLynn]

I think the probable decline in performance in the rotation going from Doubront/Bard to Lackey/Matsuzaka is more than offset by the likely improvement from moving Doubront and Bard to the pen

 

But as I pointed out, Doubront simply had no success as a relief pitcher, for whatever reason. Maybe if he went back there now he would do better; maybe not. I am quite happy with the performances of Miller (did I really say that?) and Hill as our LHRP. Do we really need Doubront too? Besides, he is much too valuable a commodity as a SP if he has continued success there. Who would you replace him with, Lackey or Matsusaka? Neither is going to put up Doobie's numbers. So then that leaves replacing Bard (which I have been advocating here for a long time) and putting him back in the pen. You can only pick one guy to replace him with, and that guy's name, presumably, is not Lackey. So Lackey is the odd man out-unless you would really put Doubront back in the pen despite his success as a SP.

And about facing "one of the top offenses in baseball at Fenway Park", thats true. Its also true that his OPSa at the Trop is over .800, and this year four of the top six offenses in the AL reside in the ALE. Lackey isn't going to get a break; he is going to have to face, on average, an ALE team 44% of the time. Then there is the Rangers, the Tigers and so forth. I don't see a place for John Lackey in our rotation right now. DiceK, maybe, but not Lackey. So to get back to the original discussion, I can see your point about DiceK's loss weakening our overall pitching, but Lackey? I think thats really a stretch given Doubront's success.

[ORS]

Lackey's not even a consideration this season. He won't be back on a throwing program until October/November or so. Lackey's future contribution will only come in 2013 and beyond.

[evilhand]

But as I pointed out, Doubront simply had no success as a relief pitcher, for whatever reason. Maybe if he went back there now he would do better; maybe not. I am quite happy with the performances of Miller (did I really say that?) and Hill as our LHRP. Do we really need Doubront too? Besides, he is much too valuable a commodity as a SP if he has continued success there.

 

Except he has to move to the pen at some point due to an IP limit. He threw 87 innings last year. There is simply no way he's going to throw anywhere near 200 this year. Same is true of Bard. Both guys are going to be move to the pen whether we like it or not. So Matsuzaka will get his chance back in the rotation and the Sox will have to pick up another starter, convert Aceves from the bullpen, or look to promote a prospect. Of those options, trading for someone seems the best route. I'd love to see Tazawa stretched out, but the team doesn't seem to agree.

 

With the Cubs throwing up the fire sale sign, maybe Dempster or Garza can fill that role. Plus, Doubront didn't have much success as a starter in the majors before this year either. What ever clicked for him clicked between last season and this season. Do you have a specific reason to believe it's not likely to translate to the pen?

 

Who would you replace him with, Lackey or Matsusaka? Neither is going to put up Doobie's numbers. So then that leaves replacing Bard (which I have been advocating here for a long time) and putting him back in the pen. You can only pick one guy to replace him with, and that guy's name, presumably, is not Lackey. So Lackey is the odd man out-unless you would really put Doubront back in the pen despite his success as a SP.

 

As was covered in the post after yours, the talk about Lackey was entirely academic as he won't be available in 2012.

 

And about facing "one of the top offenses in baseball at Fenway Park", thats true. Its also true that his OPSa at the Trop is over .800, and this year four of the top six offenses in the AL reside in the ALE. Lackey isn't going to get a break; he is going to have to face, on average, an ALE team 44% of the time. Then there is the Rangers, the Tigers and so forth. I don't see a place for John Lackey in our rotation right now. DiceK, maybe, but not Lackey. So to get back to the original discussion, I can see your point about DiceK's loss weakening our overall pitching, but Lackey? I think thats really a stretch given Doubront's success.

 

What you're saying about Lackey is going to be true of most pitchers, though. Especially 4 or 5 starters (which is what we're talking about him being). Are you arguing that Lackey is more prone to getting knocked around by great offenses than the average stater? If so, what data are you using to support that claim?

 

Great offenses get to pitchers. They often beat up on average or worse starters regularly, and will even get to great pitchers occasionally (as the Sox did to Verlander on Tuesday). Since no one is arguing Lackey is a great pitcher, he falls into the average or worse group. I'd be surprised if he gets hit significantly worse by great offenses than other guys like him.

 

I mean, Clay Buchholz has an OPSa of 1.030 in Texas and 1.239 at the old Yankee Stadium. Is that evidence that he has no place with the Red Sox or is it just evidence that great hitting teams have hit him well?

 

And Josh Beckett has an OPSa of .812 in the old Yankee Stadium and .803 in the new one, an .833 in Citizens Bank Park (Phillies) and 1.019 in the Rogers Center (TOR). Should the Red Sox cut bait on him for it?

 

Tough hitting teams are tough hitting teams. Most pitchers struggle against them.

 

So again, I'm not arguing that Lackey is going to be a front of the rotation starter for them when he gets healthy, but he's likely going to be a good pitcher. There will probably be a rotation crunch next year with Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Bard and Lackey all wanting to start, but Matsuzaka is a free agent and I don't think he's coming back and we've seen over the last three years that six starters is not too many. Injuries happen and there are plenty of innings to go around.

 

I expect Lackey will be serviceable next year and for the rest of his contract.

[FredLynn]

I expect Lackey will be serviceable next year and for the rest of his contract.

 

What do you mean by "serviceable"? I would like to see an ERA no higher than 4.20-max. Can he do that vs the ALE? Is an ERA of 4.80 "serviceable"? I say no, its unacceptable because we must improve our overall pitching, and that won't do it.

For the record, I hope you are right, but I can't see it.

Here are the OPSa numbers at Fenway for some other Sox SP (Lackey's is .832):

 

Beckett: .698

Buchholz: .709

Lester: .713

Matsusaka: .753

 

All are significantly better than Lackey's. Furthermore, here are Lackey's ERA figures beginning in 2007:

2007:3.01

2008:3.75

2009:3.83

2010:4.40

2011:6.41

See the trend? He is a bad pitcher, especially at Fenway Park, and he is getting worse. Yeah, I know, he was hurt last year for part of the year. His style of being a fly ball/contact type pitcher is tough to navigate at Fenway.

Good discussion, but only time will tell who is right here.

[evilhand]

Again, Beckett, Buchholz, Lester and Matsuzaka have never faced the Red Sox lineup in Fenway. Comparing their OPSa to Lackey's makes no sense since his is inflated due to having to have faced a great offense every time he pitched there before 2010.

 

As for the injury, there were reports that he was hurt in spring training and pitched all year with a bad elbow, which got worse as he went forward. 2011 should be discarded entirely.

 

And by serviceable, I mean 2010, which I've said several times now. a 3.85 FIP and a 4.15 xFIP would be fine. His actual ERA will be impacted by a lot of factors like defense, BABIP luck, HR/FB rate (which fluctuates in all pitchers), umpire performance, ect ect.

 

This is one of the reasons that ERA is a really poor stat for evaluating a pitcher. It's useful when taken into context (which is what stats like FIP and xFIP try to provide), but asking for what I would consider an acceptable ERA for 2013 is like asking what I think an acceptable number of wins would be. Too many variables are at play for it to be predictive and it often doesn't do a very good job of telling you how good a pitcher actually was in any given season.

 

As a response to your list of ERAs here are his FIP and xFIPs in the same years, minus 2011 where his elbow was made of pastrami.

 

2007: 3.54 3.87

2008: 4.53 3.83

2009: 3.73 3.87

2010: 3.85 4.15

 

FIP is more prone to fluctuation than xFIP, so the steady xFIPs are a good sign that he's been roughly the same pitcher in that stretch. The bump up to 4.15 in 2010 can be partially explained by the fact that the AL East is definitely tougher than the AL West. Part of it may also be that he was acclimating to a new team and stumbled a bit early as he found his footing. This is supported by the fact that his results were much better in the second half of the season in 2010.

[FredLynn]

This is one of the reasons that ERA is a really poor stat for evaluating a pitcher. It's useful when taken into context (which is what stats like FIP and xFIP try to provide), but asking for what I would consider an acceptable ERA for 2013 is like asking what I think an acceptable number of wins would be. Too many variables are at play for it to be predictive and it often doesn't do a very good job of telling you how good a pitcher actually was in any given season.

 

This is a different issue, and one that is unlikely to get resolved as I think ERA is the single simplest and most useful measure of a pitcher's effectiveness. A pitcher's job is to not allow runs-regardless of where they are pitching. There will be a slight variation in different ballparks, but good pitchers pitch well anywhere. They prevent the other guys from squaring up; they strike out batters; they do not walk batters. There is no need to use other metrics as the primary tool to evaluate pitchers when a simple very revealing statistic already exists. This is not to say that there is no place for the other metrics. I quoted, for example, WHIP, in one of my posts. Thats a useful statistic because in the days of pitch counts you need to be efficient so you can go deep into games and save the bullpen, which makes you a more valuable pitcher. FIP, not so much. It purports to be defence independent, but its not really independent at all. See this very good article:

 

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) Isn't Fielding Independent

To understand how far from reality the names of some statistics are look no further than FIP. This is an acronym for Fielding Independent Pitching.

 

According to Wikipedia the formula for this statistic is as follows:

 

FIP=13HR+3BB-2K/IP

 

 

You will notice IP (innings pitched) is the denominator. The formula for a pitcher's IP is the number of outs made while he was pitching divided by 3.

 

Of course "outs" are hardly fielding independent. Even a pitcher who strikes out one batter per inning has fielders who help get the other two.

 

 

 

 

So, in fact, this statistic is not fielding independent at all, despite the label its creators put on it. Do the results of a pitchers fielders actually change the pitcher's FIP? Lets look at two scenarios where a pitcher faces 9 batters:

 

 

 

 

Scenario one:

 

groundball hit, groundball hit, groundball hit,

 

strikeout, walk, walk, strikeout, home run, strikeout.

 

In this scenario his FIP is 13+6-6/1 for 13.0 FIP

 

 

 

 

Scenario 2:

 

groundball out, groundball out, groundball out,

 

strikeout, walk, walk, strikeout, home run, strikeout.

 

 

In this scenario his FIP is 13+6-6/2 for a 6.5 FIP

 

If the fielders catch those groundballs and turn them into outs, they cut the pitcher's FIP in half.

 

Is FIP really "fielding independent"? Not hardly. But you wouldn't know it from its name or how it is used around the internet.

 

Not a big fan of that particular metric.

And another article recognizes that ERA is the gold standard when it comes to measuring a pitcher's effectiveness when it concludes:

 

xFIP has the highest correlation with future ERA of all the pitching metrics

 

If you need something to correlate with ERA, its better just to use ERA instead. And if you want to try to predict future ERA I would use the most accurate metric, SIERA, not xFIP. I am also not a big fan of SIERA, although I have a rough understanding of what it attempts to do. Lackey had a SIERA of 4.22 in 2010, and thats classified as "below average". I would submit that his ERA since 2007 indicates decline, and even without an elbow injury he would likely have continued that decline, further raising his SIERA and ERA.

You can value xFIP more than ERA, but I don't. Old folks like me just like to keep things simple when there is no need to obfuscate the data.

[evilhand]

Pumpsie, you and I are apparently not going to see eye to eye on this. That article is an exercise in semantics. Fielding independent stats do not purport to be completely free of the influence of fielding. They seek to minimize the impact defenders have on a pitchers line (good and bad) and get as close to the events that a pitcher has complete control of as is possible. To dismiss them because the word "independent" is in the descriptor while some semblance of defense can still be attributed to the data is missing the forest for the trees.

 

Seems like we're best off agreeing to disagree here.

[FredLynn]

Pumpsie, you and I are apparently not going to see eye to eye on this. That article is an exercise in semantics. Fielding independent stats do not purport to be completely free of the influence of fielding. They seek to minimize the impact defenders have on a pitchers line (good and bad) and get as close to the events that a pitcher has complete control of as is possible. To dismiss them because the word "independent" is in the descriptor while some semblance of defense can still be attributed to the data is missing the forest for the trees.

 

Seems like we're best off agreeing to disagree here.

 

No problem with that. Ciao.

[User Name]

Says who? You? Why should I take your word on it over the people at the fielding bible? What makes your evaluation of Salty more trustworthy?

 

Do you know more than the opinion of every scout who has ever seen Salty catch? No you don't. Stop pretending that a single, flawed stat does.

 

You never mentioned his career line? What does this mean, then?

 

As mentioned in the post, a baseline similar to last year.

 

Sounds like you're using his career stats to back your argument to me.

 

 

If i was, i would be using adjectives such as "suck". I'm using his first complete, (and best) year as a baseline. Most of his rates just happen to be consistent with as a whole.

 

I'm not paying attention to the stats? Did you even read my post? I specifically addressed your concerns with his line drive rate and his HR/FB rate. His LD% isn't out of what with what he's done during his career, even in years where he wasn't otherwise producing, and his HR/FB rate is certainly inflated a little due to the hot streak of the last week or so, but expecting it to drop significantly is assuming he's not taking another step forward this year.

 

A 4% increase in LD% over last year (his best season) is significant, specially on a small sample where luck can really magnify a player's rate stats. You either don't understand the rate or you're too much of a Salty lover to see it. the HR/FB rate is problematic for a small sample like this season because it inflates SLG, and OPS by association, while still ignoring the glaring inability to get on base.

 

So I'll ask differently. Why are you assuming he's not taking steps forward last year and this year? He's 27 years old. This is exactly when we should be seeing this kind of improvement from him.

 

Because his main flaws (Tons of strikeouts, lack of patience, giving a bad target while catching) are all still present. He doesn't make enough contact to sustain a high batting average. If the K's improve and the walks start coming, i'll be the first to jump on the Salty bandwagon. Until then, i'm a Lavarnway believer.

 

 

So we're back to having to trust your eyes over the data that exists? Look, if your position is "I think he sucks and nothing you can say will change my mind" just come out and say it and we can agree to disagree. If we're looking at the data that is actually available, though, he's certainly above average and arguably becoming one of the top catchers in the majors.

 

Defensive statistics are flawed: Each and every of them. Even more so for catchers. Trusting a single stat without trusting scouting reports is idiocy.

 

Dumping him right now would be insane.

 

Not, it wouldn't be. It all depends on the return.