How to Fix This Team?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Hamels' FIP the last 2 yrs has been WAYYYYYY better than Lester's. Not even close

 

That's because he walks fewer hitters. I could have told you that. But I was saying all along that Hamels would be the ace of this team, and that he is a true ace. Hamels Lester Beckett would be an insane top 3.

 

And I qualified both the Youkilis and Buchholz deal with "If they become healthy" meaning healthy and effective. And if they do, then you can pull the trigger on that deal. If Buchholz is a 3.50-3.75 ERA pitcher, he's locked up for 3 years/25.2MM starting this year, with options for years 4 and 5 at 13.5mm per year.

 

If you actually think that the Phillies wouldn't consider a deal for Buchholz + Youkilis if both are healthy for Hamels, who is already priced out of the Phillies budget, then you're just a homer. Buchholz is exactly what the Phillies need - cheap, solid SP to go along with Lee and Halladay. The Sox need a bona fide ace. It would help both teams.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Yankees offered Montero' date=' Banuelos and Betances for Felix. They said no. You arent getting Felix, nobody is[/quote']

 

Don't be so sure.

 

Felix's contract was team friendly up until this year. Now he's making $20mm per season for the next 3 years. They could very easily trade him because that's a team that isn't going to be competitive for a few years, so getting 3-4 pieces that will help them be competitive and saving $20mm per season right now would be the right move. It wouldn't shock me in the least if Felix is dealt at some point soon.

 

Just because he didn't go to the Yankees doesn't mean he doesn't get dealt.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Yankees and Rays will still be at the top of the division at the end of the yr. The question is whether the sox will join them.

 

The Yankees have serious SP problems right now, and the bullpen shake up can't just be overlooked. I think that they'll be in contention come September, but I hardly think it's the slam dunk you make it out to be. I think the Red Sox and Yankees are going to be fighting each other tooth and nail at the end, and it's going to likely be due to a 2nd half run by the Sox.

[Whatsinaname]

The problem in 2012 is that we can't rely on games against Baltimore and Toronto to make up ground.

 

In years gone, we had games against O's Rays and Jays to make the wildcard. This year, we're struggling against our division rivals.

 

If there's a form switch, then we better turn it on in a hurry. Once the lead gets to double digits, then we're pushing s*** uphill. It can be done, but history says it won't.

[redsoxbeatz]

History also said we'd go to the playoffs! But you did say it "can be done" -- 'course anything can happen.

 

Get King Felix! He'll have his own Bard at Court Fenway.

[ibot2much]

The Yankees have serious SP problems right now' date=' and the bullpen shake up can't just be overlooked. I think that they'll be in contention come September, but I hardly think it's the slam dunk you make it out to be. I think the Red Sox and Yankees are going to be fighting each other tooth and nail at the end, and it's going to likely be due to a 2nd half run by the Sox.[/quote']

 

Is that because CC will be back and we all know how optimistic you have been about his early return

[SoxSport]

King Felix wont win 300 because he has been robbed of so many wins to this point. CC is your best bet to win 300. He needs 120 more

 

Wins isn't the thing anymore. Not when pitchers don't go deep into games. CC gets deep into games and gets more wins than most, but I don't know if he can make it at his age.

 

The guy the Red Sox missed on was Gio Gonzales. They tried to get him with Bailey, but didn't have enough to give. They blew it by focussing on Bailey and not Gio. Bard was the logical choice to succeed Pap, but they wanted him to start. Gio was the better option as 4th starter. The Red Sox front office hasn't made too many good decisions the past few years.

[a700hitter]

The Red Sox expect to have Andrew Bailey, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, Kevin Youkilis, and Daisuke Matsuzaka back at some point this summer. General Manager Ben Cherington believes, "that would be better than anything we could do in a trade deadline deal."

Memo to Ben: By the trading dead;ine or even the All Star break, it will be too late. You be too many games behind and you'll have to climb over too many teams. Sit on your hands now and there will be lots of empty seats by July.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Is that because CC will be back and we all know how optimistic you have been about his early return

 

Crawford, Ellsbury, Bailey, DiceK (which means that Bard will be back in the bullpen), the Sox will likely make a move for a RP.

 

The 2nd half of the season, this team is going to be in much better shape than the first half.

 

And Crawford is going to be an impact player this year. Count on that. Why do you people insist on putting so much weight on last year and so little weight on his career?

[example1]

It is rare for guys at Youk's age to turn it around. I think he might be on the down side and sliding fast.

 

Guys like Konerko, Berkman and Helton all had periods where they looked pretty bad and turned it around. If I were another club Youk could be a valuable 1b option.

[a700hitter]

a700 has brought up a very good point all season long. With the extra wildcard spot, there are more teams that are going to be trying to get that extra piece at the trade deadline. The cost for quality players is going to be at an extreme premium.

 

Personally, I'm starting to believe that there is a deep problem within the chemistry of this team. There are a lot of problems, and one or two more overpaid pitchers aren't going to solve them.

 

Trade Beckett and his fried chicken. Trade Youkilis, and his broken body. Trade Salty and his 6.00+ cERA. Even trade Dice-k, who may suddenly have value if he'll waive. Get whatever value you can for any single member of the bullpen besides Aceves. Fire Valentine. Load up on talented players that are a year or two from the majors, and make a run.

I don't know if we have a chemistry issue on the team yet, but morale is starting to sink like a stone. A loser's mentality is starting to take root, and when i=the payers start to see the team as non-competitive, they will start playing for themselves. They'll be swinging for the fences when they should be trying to make contact to move a runner. They'l be trying to stretch basehits when they are down multiple runs, etc. There will be no regard for team or fundamentals. It will be every man for himself. That will breed the chemistry issues. After the Yankee game, the were embarrassed and angry and they played better as a result. However, these Baltimore games have them befuddled. They are not looking angry or determined. Resignation may be not far off.

 

As far as winning in a year or two, you may be right, but I thought 2010 was supposed to be the bridge year. Theo was reported to believe that the next good crop of young players would arrive in 2012, which would have made 2011 also a bridge year. Now, it's 2012, and there is no crop of good young players on the team. We may be staring at another two years of being non-competitive looking forward to 2014-2015. That's a very long bridge.

[FredLynn]

I'm not shocked you don't think Buchholtz has much talent. You consistently misspell his name. That tells me you haven't put too much thought into him one way or the other.

 

As for fans "being led to believe" that the team is good or not, some fans make their own opinions and independently come to the conclusion that the team isn't as bad as you say. It doesn't mean they are lemmings.

 

You take great pleasure in thinking you are an independent voice, constantly right and never influenced by those who brainwash the rest of us. Must be nice to be so right and clear headed all the time. Can you help me make my voices stop?

 

I admit that I take great pleasure in THINKING. You should try it sometime.

If you disagree with what I have written, show me the evidence that supports your position. When I wrote that Buchholz has had a single good full season with the team, I submit that as a fact. That would be in 2010. It takes more than one good season to PROVE that you have the talent to pitch in the major leagues. Aaron Cook had one good season. Is he talented too? Here is my proof about Buchholz:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buchhcl01.shtml

Show me yours.

Now as to how good this team is or is not, that too should be discussed in factual terms. One can say that today is Tuesday because thats your opinion, but its not as valid an arguement as presenting a calendar that PROVES that today is Sunday. I have presented statistics over and over again to support my opinion that our pitching stinks and that we are also weak in other areas, but I have yet to see anything from you and some others here besides "that is just my opinion". Some opinions have more validity than others-the ones supported by facts. Wouldn't you agree?

[example1]

I don't know if we have a chemistry issue on the team yet, but morale is starting to sink like a stone. A loser's mentality is starting to take root, and when i=the payers start to see the team as non-competitive, they will start playing for themselves. They'll be swinging for the fences when they should be trying to make contact to move a runner. They'l be trying to stretch basehits when they are down multiple runs, etc. There will be no regard for team or fundamentals. It will be every man for himself. That will breed the chemistry issues. After the Yankee game, the were embarrassed and angry and they played better as a result. However, these Baltimore games have them befuddled. They are not looking angry or determined. Resignation may be not far off.

 

As far as winning in a year or two, you may be right, but I thought 2010 was supposed to be the bridge year. Theo was reported to believe that the next good crop of young players would arrive in 2012, which would have made 2011 also a bridge year. Now, it's 2012, and there is no crop of good young players on the team. We may be staring at another two years of being non-competitive looking forward to 2014-2015. That's a very long bridge.

 

I agree with everything you are saying here.

 

Let's just remember how the "bridge year" comment was received: people freaked out, the media freaked out, and the Sox responded by moving significant players and money to get Crawford and Gonzalez. It served the purpose of making all those who complained about the 'bridge year' comment be quiet for a year or two, but it didn't accomplish the goal of actually bridging anything.

 

It was ownership and LL who walked back the bridge year comments, even though a bridge year could have been exactly what the team needed to be in the best shape longterm.

 

They could have waited a year, signed Adrian Gonzalez, and kept Kelly, Rizzo and Fuentes. That would have given them trade chips if needed or a legitimate 1B backup to Adrian Gonzalez (Rizzo has continued his 2011 AAA success after moving to the Chicago system: .371/.421/.629/1.050 in 27 games after .331/.404/.652/1.056 in 93 games last year) and another arm to look forward to for 2013 and beyond (Kelly has started off nicely in AAA at the age of 22 and was a top 100 prospect this year).

 

Fans should just understand that bridge years are sometimes necessary and allow the FO to do what is needed, rather than acting all entitled. It's the sports equivalent of a forest fire. It replenishes and is a part of a natural cycle.

 

The reality is that this year might be a bridge year, but the FO would never say anything about it because the media will freak out.

 

For what it's worth, bridge year doesn't necessarily mean they give up on the season. It just means they are not going to do things that hinder the longterm success of the club for short term gain. If that's the case, then they will probably wait for injuries to recover and not be eager to package guys like Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Barnes, Xander, etc., for anyone.

[a700hitter]

I agree with everything you are saying here.

 

Let's just remember how the "bridge year" comment was received: people freaked out, the media freaked out, and the Sox responded by moving significant players and money to get Crawford and Gonzalez. It served the purpose of making all those who complained about the 'bridge year' comment be quiet for a year or two, but it didn't accomplish the goal of actually bridging anything.

 

It was ownership and LL who walked back the bridge year comments, even though a bridge year could have been exactly what the team needed to be in the best shape longterm.

 

They could have waited a year, signed Adrian Gonzalez, and kept Kelly, Rizzo and Fuentes. That would have given them trade chips if needed or a legitimate 1B backup to Adrian Gonzalez (Rizzo has continued his 2011 AAA success after moving to the Chicago system: .371/.421/.629/1.050 in 27 games after .331/.404/.652/1.056 in 93 games last year) and another arm to look forward to for 2013 and beyond (Kelly has started off nicely in AAA at the age of 22 and was a top 100 prospect this year).

 

Fans should just understand that bridge years are sometimes necessary and allow the FO to do what is needed, rather than acting all entitled.

 

The reality is that this year might be a bridge year, but the FO would never say anything about it because the media will freak out.

 

For what it's worth, bridge year doesn't necessarily mean they give up on the season. It just means they are not going to do things that hinder the longterm success of the club for short term gain. If that's the case, then they will probably wait for injuries to recover and not be eager to package guys like Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Barnes, Xander, etc., for anyone.

The guy that we gave up in those moves before last year aren't in the majors yet, and I don't think they will make any sort of impact in the next couple of years, if at all. So, I don't think the acquisitions set them back in rebuilding.

[example1]

I admit that I take great pleasure in THINKING. You should try it sometime.

If you disagree with what I have written, show me the evidence that supports your position. When I wrote that Buchholz has had a single good full season with the team, I submit that as a fact. That would be in 2010. It takes more than one good season to PROVE that you have the talent to pitch in the major leagues. Aaron Cook had one good season. Is he talented too? Here is my proof about Buchholz:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buchhcl01.shtml

Show me yours.

Now as to how good this team is or is not, that too should be discussed in factual terms. One can say that today is Tuesday because thats your opinion, but its not as valid an arguement as presenting a calendar that PROVES that today is Sunday. I have presented statistics over and over again to support my opinion that our pitching stinks and that we are also weak in other areas, but I have yet to see anything from you and some others here besides "that is just my opinion". Some opinions have more validity than others-the ones supported by facts. Wouldn't you agree?

 

It's hard to claim that you're the one who is thinking when you misspell the player's name over and over. It just makes you look bad and completely invalidates all of your other claims to being thorough or intelligent. Other people were spelling it right in posts that you were supposedly reading but it didn't change your approach. I have wide tolerance for various spellings and misspellings, but when someone is as condescending as you it makes for the easiest critique possible and one that is pretty much indefensible. It's just embarrassing for you.

 

I'm not interested in getting into a discussion about Buchholz with you. I use stats all the time, anyone who knows me here is well aware of that, which is why lame critiques like yours above aren't leveled at me very often and don't bother me in the slightest. It's not worth it.

[example1]

The guy that we gave up in those moves before last year aren't in the majors yet' date=' and I don't think they will make any sort of impact in the next couple of years, if at all. So, I don't think the acquisitions set them back in rebuilding.[/quote']

 

Yeah, who would want two worthless top 100 prospects sitting around when they could be traded unnecessarily to respond to media and fan pressure?

 

You're not slipping back into the "prospects don't matter until they are at the majors" line, are you?

[FredLynn]

It's hard to claim that you're the one who is thinking when you misspell the player's name over and over. It just makes you look bad and completely invalidates all of your other claims to being thorough or intelligent. Other people were spelling it right in posts that you were supposedly reading but it didn't change your approach.

 

I'm not interested in getting into a discussion about Buchholz with you. I use stats all the time, anyone who knows me here is well aware of that, which is why lame critiques like yours above aren't leveled at me very often and don't bother me in the slightest. It's not worth it.

 

Seriously? Because I misspelled Buchholz several times, that "invalidates" the statistics I showed you? Talk about lame.....

No, I don't have a lot of disagreements with you. You are correct. I have an issue, however, with THIS post from you:

 

I'm not shocked you don't think Buchholtz has much talent. You consistently misspell his name. That tells me you haven't put too much thought into him one way or the other.

 

As for fans "being led to believe" that the team is good or not, some fans make their own opinions and independently come to the conclusion that the team isn't as bad as you say. It doesn't mean they are lemmings.

 

I don't blame you for not wanting to get into discussing CB with me. There is ample evidence to support my position and when I ask to see yours, you give me an opinion that sounds like "today is Tuesday". CB had been in the majors since 2007. Thats five years, and its enough time to demonstrate your skills up in the majors. He did it once for a full year, and even then it was for under 175 innings. No problem: I realize that you don't want to discuss this any more, and I don't blame you.

As for the second part of your comment, I want to see how those fans who think that this team isn't that bad came to that conclusion. Here is today's pitching rankings from ESPN that shows that we are still in 13 place in the AL and not improving, nearly a full run per game worse than the ROYALS:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/year/2012/seasontype/2/league/al

Here are the standings this morning:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings

And here are some stats from selected "stars" from this team for this year:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzaad01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youklke01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saltaja01.shtml

 

If you or anyone else thinks that this team "isn't that bad", show me why not.

For the record, I agree with your other post that this is another "bridge year". I call it a rebuilding year; call it what you like. I also think that the FO ought to be honest with the fans about that.

[wyo-sox]

And Crawford is going to be an impact player this year. Count on that. Why do you people insist on putting so much weight on last year and so little weight on his career?

 

In all fairness I am being emotional with my lack of faith in Crawford contributing to this team. By the numbers you are probably making more sense. I have not seen many games this year where one defensive outfield play cost us that much. I will however always remember Crawford dropping the pop fly at the end of last season. Its not just that he had a bad year..... Its that I remember that deer in the headlight look durring his at bats, I remember his awful hacks like he was not at all comfortable. Given his best years were with a club that had low expectation and over performed.......I worry how things will continue in a high pressure,high expectation and under performing club in the midst of changes, drama, and recovering from an injury.

 

I will say by common sense your view makes me sense. I am admittingly being more of an emotional fan that probably placed to much hope in Crawford and Gonzalez righting all the wrongs with past free agent signings and have been very let down.

 

I hope you are right. From what the media presents I really like the type of person and player Crawford is. I guess its just 5 times bitten, six times shy with me.

[Bellhorn04]

For the record, I agree with your other post that this is another "bridge year". I call it a rebuilding year; call it what you like. I also think that the FO ought to be honest with the fans about that.

 

I don't think the FO has to be 'honest' with the fans, Pumpsie. Intelligent fans can see what's going on in front of them and draw intelligent conclusions.

 

Frankly I don't think the FO always knows what they're going to do next any more than we do. Some of this is 'read and react'. The way things are going, though, this season is going to reach a critical mass very early and I suspect the FO will act accordingly by promoting Lavarnway etc., and preparing to do things like trading Youk. But the trade deadline isn't until July.

[example1]

Seriously? Because I misspelled Buchholz several times, that "invalidates" the statistics I showed you? Talk about lame.....

No, I don't have a lot of disagreements with you. You are correct. I have an issue, however, with THIS post from you:

 

I'm not shocked you don't think Buchholtz has much talent. You consistently misspell his name. That tells me you haven't put too much thought into him one way or the other.

 

As for fans "being led to believe" that the team is good or not, some fans make their own opinions and independently come to the conclusion that the team isn't as bad as you say. It doesn't mean they are lemmings.

 

 

This post was not to dispute your opinion about Buchholz. Clearly something is f***ed up with him right now. We can disagree about the reason behind that (you may say he just sucks, I may say there's something that is wrong with him). My post was more about your comment re: fans "being led to believe" certain things. You insinuate all the time that people here are just being dragged around in their beliefs like cattle with rings through their noses. It's demeaning and makes it hard to care about anything else you say.

 

I don't blame you for not wanting to get into discussing CB with me. There is ample evidence to support my position and when I ask to see yours, you give me an opinion that sounds like "today is Tuesday". CB had been in the majors since 2007. Thats five years, and its enough time to demonstrate your skills up in the majors. He did it once for a full year, and even then it was for under 175 innings. No problem: I realize that you don't want to discuss this any more, and I don't blame you.

 

...

 

As for the second part of your comment, I want to see how those fans who think that this team isn't that bad came to that conclusion. Here is today's pitching rankings from ESPN that shows that we are still in 13 place in the AL and not improving, nearly a full run per game worse than the ROYALS:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/year/2012/seasontype/2/league/al

Here are the standings this morning:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings

And here are some stats from selected "stars" from this team for this year:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzaad01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youklke01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saltaja01.shtml

 

If you or anyone else thinks that this team "isn't that bad", show me why not.

 

I would say that the team is better than they have shown so far. One could use statistics to show that Albert Pujols is a s***** hitter, but we know he's not based on past performance. Similarly, this group of players should be better than a majority of other American League clubs. They just aren't right now.

 

I also think you may be confusing "wait and see" with "not that bad". I'm always going to say that we should wait past the beginning of May to write the book on any club. You clearly are ready to make your judgment already. We can differ there. Given that we know there will be a very big sample-size, it makes sense to wait for more data before drawing conclusions. You may disagree.

[FredLynn]

This post was not to dispute your opinion about Buchholz. Clearly something is f***ed up with him right now. We can disagree about the reason behind that (you may say he just sucks, I may say there's something that is wrong with him). My post was more about your comment re: fans "being led to believe" certain things. You insinuate all the time that people here are just being dragged around in their beliefs like cattle with rings through their noses. It's demeaning and makes it hard to care about anything else you say.

 

Ahh. I see. Sometimes I write things that can be misinterpreted. In no way do I really think that people on this board are gullible tagalongs who are incapable of forming independent opinions. On the contrary: people here have a very large assortment of such opinions, some of which are based on facts, and some of which are just opinions (which is also fine). It would have been more accurate for me to say that the FO is feeding us material that THEY would hope causes us to form the opinion that they want. Some examples: the "sellout" nonsense and the statement that Valentine made that indicated that he is satisfied with the current pitching staff, among other examples. In other words, the FO is trying to lead us to believe certain things, but people here are not as gullible as they would like.

[a700hitter]

Yeah, who would want two worthless top 100 prospects sitting around when they could be traded unnecessarily to respond to media and fan pressure?

 

You're not slipping back into the "prospects don't matter until they are at the majors" line, are you?

Give me a holler when either one of those guys matter.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Carl Crawford (60 day DL)

Andrew Bailey (60 day DL)

Chris Carpenter (60 day DL)

Bobby Jenks (60 day DL)

John Lackey (60 day DL)

Ryan Kalish (60 day DL)

Jacoby Ellsbury (15 day DL)

Aaron Cook (15 day DL)

Jason Repko (15 day DL)

Daisuke Matsuzaka (15 day DL)

 

And people wonder why this team is struggling LOL

[Dojji]

People who want to think there's a quick fix to get this team back to elite status are going to be disappointed. We achieved a critical mass lf offensive talent between 2001-2009 that was hard to match. Don't be surprised if matching it turns out not to be easy.

 

Frankly I think we need a fundamental improvement to all aspects of the team before we're going anywhere. And I don't know that you're going to be able to do that in 1-2 seasons, much less this year.

[Dojji]

Carl Crawford (60 day DL)

Andrew Bailey (60 day DL)

Chris Carpenter (60 day DL)

Bobby Jenks (60 day DL)

John Lackey (60 day DL)

Ryan Kalish (60 day DL)

Jacoby Ellsbury (15 day DL)

Aaron Cook (15 day DL)

Jason Repko (15 day DL)

Daisuke Matsuzaka (15 day DL)

 

And people wonder why this team is struggling LOL

 

Complete nonfactors whited out. Minor players at best in gray.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Complete nonfactors whited out. Minor players at best in gray.

 

You're calling our closer a non-factor? That's pretty ridiculous.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Complete nonfactors whited out. Minor players at best in gray.

 

When you're missing 2 everyday outfielders, your closer, and 2 of your starting pitchers...

 

We have holes.

[SoxSport]

They made a mistake promoting an Epstein clone from within to replace him, and hiring a manager from the outside with independent clout--to try to work with him. I don't think it's working out. You have to wonder if Valentine has any input in the personnel moves being made. I just don't see any real change from last year.

[SoxFanForsyth]

When you're missing 2 everyday outfielders, your closer, and 2 of your starting pitchers...

 

We have holes.

 

There is a huge trickle down effect with the pitchers too. While Lackey may not be an improvement, DiceK likely will be able to go out and give you 6 IP, 3 ER from the 5th slot. You have DiceK, then you can throw Bard in the bullpen. You have Bard in the bullpen, and now you've got a swing and miss guy to set up for your closer, or you have got a closer.

 

If you have Bailey, then all of a sudden the back end of your bullpen looks good.

 

I just wonder how long it's going to take this team to realize that Salty is a huge thorn in the teams side right now. That dropped pop up cost the team the game. His defense is significantly worse this year than it was last year. And he strikes out entirely too much.

[Palodios]

How to Fix This Team?

 

Get rid of Salty. He's killing the pitching staff. He can't hit, he can't field, and he can't call a game. Catcher's ERA isn't usually the best indicator for performance... but Salty is just plain terrible, and it is obvious to anyone watching the game.

 

There is a two full point difference between Shoppach and Salty-- and Shop has caught two Buchholz starts.

 

2012

Shoppach's cERA -- 4.20

Salty's cERA -- 6.20

 

2011

Varitek's cERA-- 3.56

Salty's cERA-- 4.63

 

2010

Varitek's cERA --4.22

VMart's cERA --4.60

Salty's cERA --4.95