Bye Bye Pineda... Gone for 2012

[jacksonianmarch]

Meh is right. It is not set in stone that he will come back as an 88mph pusballer. It's all in his rehab AND his recovery. The biggest problem with these surgeries is the avoidance of recurrent surgeries. When you have to go in there and fix the shoulder multiple times, the career is effectively over

[SoxFanForsyth]

Well the deal isn't certainly for nothing. Campos would be the Red Sox 2nd or 3rd best prospect right now.

 

Really?? Really???

 

Middlebrooks. Kalish. Lavarnway. Bogaerts. Jacobs. Barnes. Swihart. Brentz. All better than Campos right now.

 

And Barnes hasn't allowed a run in the same league, and has K'd 14.5/9 and touching 101 mph. But nobody is talking about it because he's just placed too low. Just like Campos.

[User Name]

Well the deal isn't certainly for nothing. Campos would be the Red Sox 2nd or 3rd best prospect right now.

 

Do you see a point in making an ass out of yourself with idiotic statements like this one?

[User Name]

Meh is right. It is not set in stone that he will come back as an 88mph pusballer. It's all in his rehab AND his recovery. The biggest problem with these surgeries is the avoidance of recurrent surgeries. When you have to go in there and fix the shoulder multiple times' date=' the career is effectively over[/quote']

 

It's not set in stone, but history is certainly against Pineda. Sugarcoat it if you will, but in the best case scenario you just lost a full year of Pineda. There's no silver lining here.

[jacksonianmarch]

It's not set in stone' date=' but history is certainly against Pineda. Sugarcoat it if you will, but in the best case scenario you just lost a full year of Pineda. There's no silver lining here.[/quote']

 

There is absolutely no silver lining, you are right. And I think it's more a 50-50 proposition than anything else. I think there is a 50% chance he is able to right his career and reclaim his projected path as a potential ace. I think there is a 50% chance he comes back a shell of himself or doesnt come back at all. That sucks ass

[jacksonianmarch]

Really?? Really???

 

Middlebrooks. Kalish. Lavarnway. Bogaerts. Jacobs. Barnes. Swihart. Brentz. All better than Campos right now.

 

And Barnes hasn't allowed a run in the same league, and has K'd 14.5/9 and touching 101 mph. But nobody is talking about it because he's just placed too low. Just like Campos.

 

Campos would be a top 100 prospect right now. He'd probably be right behind Middlebrooks and Bogaerts on your top 10 and just ahead of Barnes and Ranaudo if he continues his dominance. He's that good.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Campos would be a top 100 prospect right now. He'd probably be right behind Middlebrooks and Bogaerts on your top 10 and just ahead of Barnes and Ranaudo if he continues his dominance. He's that good.

 

Then why isn't he?? It's not like this is his first year in MiLB.

[example1]

Campos would be a top 100 prospect right now. He'd probably be right behind Middlebrooks and Bogaerts on your top 10 and just ahead of Barnes and Ranaudo if he continues his dominance. He's that good.

 

Barnes has a 14.6 K/9 and a .6 WHIP this year. If he "continues his dominance" as he moves through the system he will be top 100 easily. It's not hard to make that claim either way.

[Meh]

Really?? Really???

 

Middlebrooks. Kalish. Lavarnway. Bogaerts. Jacobs. Barnes. Swihart. Brentz. All better than Campos right now.

 

And Barnes hasn't allowed a run in the same league, and has K'd 14.5/9 and touching 101 mph. But nobody is talking about it because he's just placed too low. Just like Campos.

 

ok I forgot about Barnes but they're close there.... but Lavarnway, Kalish, Jacobs, Swihart and Brentz... you're out of your f***ing mind. You actually shouldn't be allowed to talk about prospects in public anymore if you seriously think Brentz is a better prospect than Campos.

[jacksonianmarch]

Then why isn't he?? It's not like this is his first year in MiLB.

 

He was 18 and was in short season last yr. He's currently 19 and blowing through his competition.

[SoxFanForsyth]

ok I forgot about Barnes but they're close there.... but Lavarnway' date=' Kalish, Jacobs, Swihart and Brentz... you're out of your [b']f***ing[/b] mind. You actually shouldn't be allowed to talk about prospects in public anymore if you seriously think Brentz is a better prospect than Campos.

 

Brentz is a stretch. The rest?? Not at all. Swihart was ranked 72nd by BA this year. And he didn't even play in the minors last year. Campos was in the minors and isn't ranked.

 

Kalish is absolutely a better prospect and has shown that he can compete at the highest of levels at the age of 22.

 

Lavarnway? Come on dude. He absolutely mashes. And he does it against AAA pitching. Campos is throwing against SALLY league hitters.

 

Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, and Swihart are all top 100 prospects. So that's the top 3 right there. Barnes is better than Campos, so that's the top 4. So, AT BEST, Campos is the 5th best, and he isn't even that good IMO.

[ORS]

Al Leiter came back from this throwing 97 mph. It's all in the rehab process. It's too early to write Pineda off just yet.

I'm not writing him off, hence the words "likely" and "probably" in my post. I'm just pointing out that the history for pitchers with this injury means expectations that "he'll be fine, just a little later than originally thought" are kind of naive and foolish. Yes, he certainly could come back with no severly diminished ability, but the probability is low.

[jacksonianmarch]

Brentz is a stretch. The rest?? Not at all. Swihart was ranked 72nd by BA this year. And he didn't even play in the minors last year. Campos was in the minors and isn't ranked.

 

Kalish is absolutely a better prospect and has shown that he can compete at the highest of levels at the age of 22.

 

Lavarnway? Come on dude. He absolutely mashes. And he does it against AAA pitching. Campos is throwing against SALLY league hitters.

 

Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, and Swihart are all top 100 prospects. So that's the top 3 right there. Barnes is better than Campos, so that's the top 4. So, AT BEST, Campos is the 5th best, and he isn't even that good IMO.

 

Your opinion matters very little when you know nothing about the player in question.

 

Barnes is 2 yrs older, was a college pitcher, and is at the same level. He is dominating the level more than Campos is, that is for sure, but he is also 2 yrs older. In 2 yrs, Campos will likely be in AAA should he not be injured. You could definitely make the case for Barnes to be higher than Campos due to velocity, which Barnes does have. But you cannot make it based on stuff, especially when you factor in another 2 yrs of growth and the control of the breaking ball and change that Campos has shown. I want you to look at Campos' numbers in short season last yr just for comparison. They are ridiculous

 

Swihart was ranked based upon his draft status. Thus far, he's shown nothing at the same level Campos is dominating, and he is also 3 months older than Campos. So it's not an age thing. I think Campos ends up higher than him come season's end. I do think, eventually, Swihart gets it, but he's had an inauspicious start to his pro career

 

Kalish isnt a prospect, A. He's already used up his rookie status. B, he missed 2011 and is not due to play in 2012 until around the ASB. How can you make any conclusions on him when he hasnt played?

 

Middlebrooks and Bogaerts will be above him in the top 100, that is for sure. I dont doubt that one at all. Middlebrooks is playing like a top 50 prospect, maybe even top 25.

[kapsis21]

i hated to see Hector Noesi his stuff was filthy.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Your opinion matters very little when you know nothing about the player in question.

 

Barnes is 2 yrs older, was a college pitcher, and is at the same level. He is dominating the level more than Campos is, that is for sure, but he is also 2 yrs older. In 2 yrs, Campos will likely be in AAA should he not be injured. You could definitely make the case for Barnes to be higher than Campos due to velocity, which Barnes does have. But you cannot make it based on stuff, especially when you factor in another 2 yrs of growth and the control of the breaking ball and change that Campos has shown. I want you to look at Campos' numbers in short season last yr just for comparison. They are ridiculous

 

Swihart was ranked based upon his draft status. Thus far, he's shown nothing at the same level Campos is dominating, and he is also 3 months older than Campos. So it's not an age thing. I think Campos ends up higher than him come season's end. I do think, eventually, Swihart gets it, but he's had an inauspicious start to his pro career

 

Kalish isnt a prospect, A. He's already used up his rookie status. B, he missed 2011 and is not due to play in 2012 until around the ASB. How can you make any conclusions on him when he hasnt played?

 

Middlebrooks and Bogaerts will be above him in the top 100, that is for sure. I dont doubt that one at all. Middlebrooks is playing like a top 50 prospect, maybe even top 25.

 

All fair points. Barnes is older, but like you said, his velocity and stuff is K'ing 1.5x what Campos is K'ing right now with similar K rates, so I give Barnes an edge there because he's performing extremely well and dominating the hitters like an elite prospect should be doing to SALLY hitters (a la Bundy).

 

I place Kalish above him because we have seen him at the big league level having success at the age of 22. I can see how you wouldn't put Kalish above Campos, but I think if he didn't use up his rookie status he would be top 100.

 

Swihart has only played in 14 games, and this is his first year in professional baseball, whereas Campos had thrown 171 innings of professional baseball prior to this year, so I would expect Campos to outperform Swihart initially.

 

Either way, Campos is not a top 3 prospect for the Sox. He's would barely crack the top 5 when you factor Swihart, Bogaerts, Barnes, and Middlebrooks.

 

Henry Owens is another guy to keep an eye on. He's only 19 and is in his first season of professional baseball and having some control problems (6.75 BB/9), but he's got a ridiculous 18.56 K/9 thus far.

[Meh]

and [Campos] isn't even that good IMO.

 

Well we just disagree on this, no big deal I guess.

[Meh]

I'm not writing him off' date=' hence the words "likely" and "probably" in my post. I'm just pointing out that the history for pitchers with this injury means expectations that "he'll be fine, just a little later than originally thought" are kind of naive and foolish. Yes, he certainly could come back with no severly diminished ability, but the probability is low.[/quote']

 

Sucks for Yankee fans and just fans of hard throwers in general, I didn't like the deal at the time cause I was a Montero fan and homer but I'm not going to get angry or upset about it. When you think about it, this can happen to anyone at any time and IMO the Yankees have been extremely lucky in terms of health in recent years with pitchers, until this year anyway.

[User Name]

Sucks for Yankee fans and just fans of hard throwers in general' date=' I didn't like the deal at the time cause I was a Montero fan [b']and homer[/b] but I'm not going to get angry or upset about it. When you think about it, this can happen to anyone at any time and IMO the Yankees have been extremely lucky in terms of health in recent years with pitchers, until this year anyway.

 

We know.

[Divinity]

Schilling said this of Pineda "He can be back better than he has ever been in 10 months" "Maybe less, because he is younger. It is going to be 100 percent on him."

 

The fact that he's only 23 and has low miles on his arm is definitely something to be optimistic about.

[User Name]

Curt Schilling is not a doctor. He doesn't know what the f*** he's talking about.

[jacksonianmarch]

Curt Schilling is one of the success stories from the surgery. He is not a doctor. And right now, the probability that Pineda comes through this with his previous stuff is around the 50% mark. So flip a coin....

[Laser Show]

http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/7863696/new-york-yankees-gm-brian-cashman-calls-michael-pineda-deal-massive-decision-gone-wrong

 

Cashman regrets the trade.

[Divinity]

right now' date=' the probability that Pineda comes through this with his previous stuff is around the 50% mark. So flip a coin....[/quote']

 

At the end of the ESPN article Laser just posted it says "One source put Pineda's chances for a full recovery at 85 percent after a long period of rehabilitation, expected to be 12 months from the date of the surgery."

[jacksonianmarch]

At the end of the ESPN article Laser just posted it says "One source put Pineda's chances for a full recovery at 85 percent after a long period of rehabilitation' date=' expected to be 12 months from the date of the surgery."[/quote']

 

Depends on what you consider a full recovery. My consideration of a "full recovery" is the kid coming back throwing 97.

[Palodios]

I just want to put this into perspective.

 

What would have happened to this organization if Jeter had been traded away in 1996 for a pitcher who had potentially career damaging surgery?

[mvp 78]

I just want to put this into perspective.

 

What would have happened to this organization if Jeter had been traded away in 1996 for a pitcher who had potentially career damaging surgery?

 

The Yankees would have had a SS that could play defense?

[BornToRun]

The Yankees would have had a SS that could play defense?

 

And had a forehead of manageable size.

[Palodios]

The Yankees would have had a SS that could play defense?

 

 

And had a forehead of manageable size.

 

Guys, I'm trying to make a point that this will severely hurt the franchise. Stay with me here:lol:

[User Name]

At the end of the ESPN article Laser just posted it says "One source put Pineda's chances for a full recovery at 85 percent after a long period of rehabilitation' date=' expected to be 12 months from the date of the surgery."[/quote']

 

Stop being such a homer. "Full recovery" means coming back with a pitcher's prior stuff. A study done in 2004 showed that out of 36 pitchers who had the same surgery that Pineda had, only 3 came back with their prior ability, one of them being Curt Schilling.

 

The chances of a "full recovery" are under 50%. Take the blindfolds off.

[jacksonianmarch]

I just want to put this into perspective.

 

What would have happened to this organization if Jeter had been traded away in 1996 for a pitcher who had potentially career damaging surgery?

 

we'd have dealt for Rey Ordonez. It's apples and oranges, though. Jeter continues to man a very important defensive position and for awhile, he manned it adequately. He's obviously a statue now, but he's 37. Montero was never going to be a good defender and the Yankees obviously thought he'd never cut it as a catcher. Add to that the fact that the system is deep in catching prospects and the manager is a former defensive catcher, and you were looking at a kid who was probably going to have to move off the position. The only logical choice for him is 1b and Tex is there for the forseeable future, so they dealt from a position of strength for a young ace. Unfortunately, once they saw this behemoth walk into his physical overweight as a 23 yr old, they should have nixed the deal. I get the deal, but I had been following Montero since 2006 and hated to see him go. I have a feeling he ends up as a backup C, full time DH who can put up .300 30HR 100RBI seasons on a regular basis. It sucks to have dealt him for the headliner who is hurt