How good will Cleveland be this year?

[OriginalUsername]

Who has said he's not a capable pitcher?

 

The guy who said the Tigers don't have much after Verlander

 

I am countering your point that he's statistically better than the entire Sox pitching staff. If you consider the pitching environment and don't cherry pick stats, Beckett and Lester are better pitchers. Sorry if you don't want to admit it.

 

Cherry pick stats? I gave you a whole list. You only came up with one stat. That would be cherry picking

 

Also, his ERA is a full run higher on the road (4.08 to 3.04), another example of cherry picking stats. And a sample size of 450 innings is still fairly small.

 

Not sure where you're pulling numbers, but I have a 3.90 ERA on the road and 3.10 at home according to fangraphs. His FIP at home is 3.40 and 3.70 on the road. Ballpark still doesn't factor into the fact he has a better BB/9 and BB/K ratio.

 

I agree that he's a capable number two, but the rest of your point is moot.

 

Also, the guy who made the comment about Detroit is a White Sox fa, (as evidenced by his monicker which has WHITE SOX on it). You may have a better point against his rotation.

 

What difference does it make if he's a White Sox? i'm assuming you're a Red Sox fan. I could say the White Sox had a better roatation than Boston but you'd likely disagree

[User Name]

The guy who said the Tigers don't have much after Verlander

 

Who is a homerrific White Sox fan? Surprised much.

 

Cherry pick stats? I gave you a whole list. You only came up with one stat. That would be cherry picking

 

Stats convenient for your argument. Look at the whole body of work, and don't omit stats that don't go in his favor, like K's and ERA +. Also, the sample size issue, which you don't even touch, because seriously.

 

Not sure where you're pulling numbers, but I have a 3.90 ERA on the road and 3.10 at home according to fangraphs. His FIP at home is 3.40 and 3.70 on the road. Ballpark still doesn't factor into the fact he has a better BB/9 and BB/K ratio.

 

Baseball Reference. BB/9 isn't the be-all, end-all. You need to induce weak contact and miss bats. You know who has a pristine BB/9? Carlos Silva.

 

Fister is a flyball pitcher in a spacious stadium that covers his flaws. He doesn't K hitters, and doesn't have high-end stuff. He has great control, sure, but let's not kid ourselves here.

 

You're welcome to keep deluding yourself by cherry picking stats and ignoring context though.

 

What difference does it make if he's a White Sox? i'm assuming you're a Red Sox fan. I could say the White Sox had a better roatation than Boston but you'd likely disagree

 

That's because they don't. The Angels, Tigers and Yankees....well, that's another deal.

[OriginalUsername]

Who is a homerrific White Sox fan? Surprised much.

 

 

 

Stats convenient for your argument. Look at the whole body of work, and don't omit stats that don't go in his favor, like K's and ERA +. Also, the sample size issue, which you don't even touch, because seriously.

 

 

 

Baseball Reference. BB/9 isn't the be-all, end-all. You need to induce weak contact and miss bats. You know who has a pristine BB/9? Carlos Silva.

 

Fister is a flyball pitcher in a spacious stadium that covers his flaws. He doesn't K hitters, and doesn't have high-end stuff. He has great control, sure, but let's not kid ourselves here.

 

You're welcome to keep deluding yourself by cherry picking stats and ignoring context though.

 

 

 

That's because they don't. The Angels, Tigers and Yankees....well, that's another deal.

 

Flyball pitcher? He has a 47% career groundball rate. Like I said he has a better ERA, FIP, BB/9, K/BB, WHIP, HR/9, please, what stats are being omitted? You're hanging your hat on ERA+ which is the exact same as Beckett and 3 less than Buchholtz. So lets just say 90% of the stats.

[User Name]

Flyball pitcher? He has a 47% career groundball rate. Like I said he has a better ERA' date=' FIP, BB/9, K/BB, WHIP, HR/9, please, what stats are being omitted? You're hanging your hat on ERA+ which is the exact same as Beckett and 3 less than Buchholtz. So lets just say 90% of the stats.[/quote']

 

His LD and FB% amount to 53% of his outs. You are omitting K's, the sample size (i'd like to see you refute that), home/away splits (go to BB/R and check his career).

 

You are hanging your hat on BB/9, which supplements K/BB and FIP and HR/9 does NOT help your argument, given the stadiums he has played in.

 

Again, prove to me how 452 IP of ball in Seattle and Detroit beat a superior K/9 and similar ERA in the AL East over sample sizes that are at least double of what he's pitched.

 

You can cry about his BB/9 until you're blue in the face, but the lack of IP and playing in weaker divisions and spacious stadiums are simply not debatable.

 

If you can stand there and say you'd rather have Fister than Beckett or Lester on your team, more Homerriffic power to ya, but that's kind of ridiculous.

[OriginalUsername]

His LD and FB% amount to 53% of his outs. You are omitting K's, the sample size (i'd like to see you refute that), home/away splits (go to BB/R and check his career).

 

You are hanging your hat on BB/9, which supplements K/BB and FIP and HR/9 does NOT help your argument, given the stadiums he has played in.

 

Again, prove to me how 452 IP of ball in Seattle and Detroit beat a superior K/9 and similar ERA in the AL East over sample sizes that are at least double of what he's pitched.

 

You can cry about his BB/9 until you're blue in the face, but the lack of IP and playing in weaker divisions and spacious stadiums are simply not debatable.

 

If you can stand there and say you'd rather have Fister than Beckett or Lester on your team, more Homerriffic power to ya, but that's kind of ridiculous.

 

 

You continue to evade the fact that Fister leads all the Boston pitchers in the half dozen stats I provided and keep going back to ERA+ in which case they don't have much of an advantage. Again, how does stadium effect BB/9? Part of what makes Fister a valuable pitcher is he limits walks and base runners. If he was an 8 K/9 guy, he would be a Cy Young contender given all his other peripherals. How can you just throw out BB/9? At what point then does sample size not matter? That's over 2 full seasons. 10% of his flyballs are popups. Comerica beyond popular belief is middle of the pack in park factors. It's around league average in HR

[User Name]

You continue to evade the fact that Fister leads all the Boston pitchers in the half dozen stats I provided and keep going back to ERA+ in which case they don't have much of an advantage. Again' date=' how does stadium effect BB/9? Part of what makes Fister a valuable pitcher is he limits walks and base runners. If he was an 8 K/9 guy, he would be a Cy Young contender given all his other peripherals. How can you just throw out BB/9? At what point then does sample size not matter? That's over 2 full seasons. 10% of his flyballs are popups. Comerica beyond popular belief is middle of the pack in park factors. It's around league average in HR[/quote']

 

You continue to evade the sample size issue. 452 IP is two seasons' worth, as you say. Most of them played in Safeco, mind you.

 

Also, just so you know, it doesn't matter if you allow no base on balls if you allow hard contact, which brings me back to the stadium and division point.

 

If you think he'd have numbers similar to Beckett and Lester's in the AL East, you're kidding yourself.

 

Stadiums and divisions don't have an effect on BB/9, but they have an effect on his other stats:

 

OPS against is nearly 100 points higher (636 home, 720 away) ERA is a full run higher (3.04 to 4.08) WHIP is also much worse (1.10 home, 1.27 away)

 

The bb/9, as you say, stays consistent, but the rest of his peripherals balloon.

 

He is, to a large extent, a product of his home stadium. Which has, for most of his professional career, been Safeco Field, not Comerica Park.

 

Meanwhile, Lester and Beckett consistently pitch in a stadium that is top-3 in the league in park factors.

 

Keep your Fister.

[OriginalUsername]

If you aren't giving up base runners, you can't give up runs. Pretty simple concept so walk rate is important. If you give up zero walks and get hit hard, you'll only give up solo shots. Jon Lester has an almost identical flyball and line drive percentage as Fister so I guess Lester gets hit hard? Beckett gives up an even higher percentage of flyballs and line drives. Again, all you do is dwell on the stadium. His ERA+ is still the same as Beckett's. It's only 3 behind Buchholtz.

 

Keep your Beckett and his chicken and beer.

[User Name]

I didn't know a walk was the primary way to get on base. Way to screw up the simple concept you speak of.

 

Dude's a product of his ballpark and there's no evidence to the contrary.

 

I'll take Beckett and the beer.

[OriginalUsername]

I didn't know a walk was the primary way to get on base. Way to screw up the simple concept you speak of.

 

Dude's a product of his ballpark and there's no evidence to the contrary.

 

I'll take Beckett and the beer.

 

It's a shame because if you would've acquired Fister you likely wouldn't have suffered through the worst collapse in baseball history. You keep saying he's a product of his stadium, yet his ERA+ which accounts for the ballpark is exactly the same as Beckett's.

[User Name]

....or he could've gotten hammered given his away stats and the collapse still happens. Or worse, maybe he joins the chicken and beer club and needs TJS after straining his UCL during a beer bash with Lackey.

 

Also, stop trolling.

 

BTW, ERA+ accounts for stadium production, but not for fluke seasons. If you're expecting 2011 to be a benchmark for Fister's production going forward, prepare to be sorely disappointed.

[OriginalUsername]

....or he could've gotten hammered given his away stats and the collapse still happens. Or worse, maybe he joins the chicken and beer club and needs TJS after straining his UCL during a beer bash with Lackey.

 

Also, stop trolling.

 

BTW, ERA+ accounts for stadium production, but not for fluke seasons. If you're expecting 2011 to be a benchmark for Fister's production going forward, prepare to be sorely disappointed.

 

I'm going by his career 115 ERA+ not 2011. He also had no problem pitching against the Yankees in game 5 at Yankee stadium or beating Texas in Game 3. In 2011 he gave up more than 3 runs to an AL east team twice and that was Toronto and Baltimore. He had starts of 7 or more innings and 3 runs or less on the road against New York and Tampa. He also would've been too new to get in on the chicken and beer.

[OriginalUsername]

What's funny is Beckett has a 3.89 road ERA and Fister has a 3.96 road ERA and Beckett has a higher road FIP.

[iortiz]

Fister would have been a great addition last year. He was the kind of pitcher we needed. You do not need go deep in stats in order to know that. Anyway, that is in the past and now he is with the Tigers.

 

Back on topic, 1. Cleveland can't win that division since Tigers is there. 2. Tigers and Texas IMO are the best teams in the AL and will likely in the ALCS. 3. IMO TB will win the ALE. LAA will win 1/2 WC and second WC will be disputed by NY and Boston in the last 10 games of the season... So, Cleaveland do not have chance this year IMO.

[User Name]

I'm going by his career 115 ERA+ not 2011. He also had no problem pitching against the Yankees in game 5 at Yankee stadium or beating Texas in Game 3. In 2011 he gave up more than 3 runs to an AL east team twice and that was Toronto and Baltimore. He had starts of 7 or more innings and 3 runs or less on the road against New York and Tampa. He also would've been too new to get in on the chicken and beer.

 

You're basically by 2011, because it accounts by 60% of his sample. See the problem with the small sample, oh genius of stats?

 

What's funny is Beckett has a 3.89 road ERA and Fister has a 3.96 road ERA and Beckett has a higher road FIP.

 

Beckett pitches in the AL East, Fister pitched in the AL West and AL Central. Big difference whether you want to admit it or not. Titans such as Oakland, Minny and Chicago sure make that ERA explode huh?

[User Name]

Fister would have been a great addition last year. He was the kind of pitcher we needed. You do not need go deep in stats in order to know that. Anyway, that is in the past and now he is with the Tigers.

 

Back on topic, 1. Cleveland can't win that division since Tigers is there. 2. Tigers and Texas IMO are the best teams in the AL and will likely in the ALCS. 3. IMO TB will win the ALE. LAA will win 1/2 WC and second WC will be disputed by NY and Boston in the last 10 games of the season... So, Cleaveland do not have chance this year IMO.

 

That's hindsight. And you don't quite know if he would or wouldn't have been good in Boston. The truth is he would have been better than Bedard, which would have propelled us into the playoffs, that much is true.

 

The point is, that saying that Fister is a better pitcher than Josh Beckett or Jon Lester is ridiculous.

[OriginalUsername]

You're basically by 2011, because it accounts by 60% of his sample. See the problem with the small sample, oh genius of stats?

 

 

 

Beckett pitches in the AL East, Fister pitched in the AL West and AL Central. Big difference whether you want to admit it or not. Titans such as Oakland, Minny and Chicago sure make that ERA explode huh?

 

I was thinking Titans such as Texas and Anaheim vs Titans such as Baltimore.

[User Name]

I was thinking Titans such as Texas and Anaheim vs Titans such as Baltimore.

 

Anaheim's lineup has been a joke the past few years. Texas, i'll give you.

 

And the "Titan" that is Baltimore was 14th in hitting last year in the Majors. The worst lineups in the AL East are league average. The worst in the AL Central and West are among the worst in MLB.

[OriginalUsername]

Anaheim's lineup has been a joke the past few years. Texas, i'll give you.

 

And the "Titan" that is Baltimore was 14th in hitting last year in the Majors. The worst lineups in the AL East are league average. The worst in the AL Central and West are among the worst in MLB.

 

Anaheim's lineup wasn't far behind Tampa's and of course Beckett doesn't have to face Boston. You had the Yankees and then some average to slightly above average. The Royals offense was as good as Tampa's last year if not better.

[User Name]

Anaheim's lineup wasn't far behind Tampa's and of course Beckett doesn't have to face Boston. You had the Yankees and then some average to slightly above average. The Royals offense was as good as Tampa's last year if not better.

 

Every team in the AL East was in the upper half of offensive teams in the Majors last year. Fenway was the third best stadium for hitting.

 

Oakland, Cleveland, Anaheim, Chicago, Minnesota were all in the lower half of team hitting. Safeco is a pure pitcher's park, Detroit is neutral with a slight tendency towards suppressing runs.

 

You can try minimizing the difference 'till you're blue in the face, but it's there.

[OriginalUsername]

Every team in the AL East was in the upper half of offensive teams in the Majors last year. Fenway was the third best stadium for hitting.

 

Oakland, Cleveland, Anaheim, Chicago, Minnesota were all in the lower half of team hitting. Safeco is a pure pitcher's park, Detroit is neutral with a slight tendency towards suppressing runs.

 

You can try minimizing the difference 'till you're blue in the face, but it's there.

 

Yankees scored 867 runs and Texas scored 855

Kansas City scored 730 runs and Toronto scored 743

Cleveland scored 704 runs and Tampa scored 707

 

They're pretty even. This whole AL East thing doesn't mean anything if he isn't pitching against New york and Boston.

[User Name]

Yankees scored 867 runs and Texas scored 855

Kansas City scored 730 runs and Toronto scored 743

Cleveland scored 704 runs and Tampa scored 707

 

They're pretty even. This whole AL East thing doesn't mean anything if he isn't pitching against New york and Boston.

 

Not even at all considering he pitched most of the season in the AL West, and the Boston pitchers do have to play the Yankees. And this is dishonest because you are not counting the fact that he does not pitch most of his games against Kansas and Texas, but rather Oakland, Anaheim Cleveland, the White Sox and Minny, in Safeco.

 

Also, the ballparks. Safeco is an undisputable advantage.

[OriginalUsername]

Not even at all considering he pitched most of the season in the AL West, and the Boston pitchers do have to play the Yankees. And this is dishonest because you are not counting the fact that he does not pitch most of his games against Kansas and Texas, but rather Oakland, Anaheim Cleveland, the White Sox and Minny, in Safeco.

 

Also, the ballparks. Safeco is an undisputable advantage.

 

You keep bringing up Safeco but his ERA+ is the same as Beckett's and Fister's road numbers are the same as Beckett's. You can keep trying to say it's factor but the numbers prove otherwise. The Mariners still had to play the Rangers. Fister pitched a total of 4 games against Boston, New York, and Texas not including the playoffs and Beckett pitched 6 against New York and Texas. Two additional games is not going to make a difference, especially since Fister pitched well against those teams

[User Name]

You keep bringing up Safeco but his ERA+ is the same as Beckett's and Fister's road numbers are the same as Beckett's. You can keep trying to say it's factor but the numbers prove otherwise. The Mariners still had to play the Rangers. Fister pitched a total of 4 games against Boston' date=' New York, and Texas not including the playoffs and Beckett pitched 6 against New York and Texas. Two additional games is not going to make a difference, especially since Fister pitched well against those teams[/quote']

 

The key factor is the home/road split, and a way to ascertain stadium and division difficulty. If you don't know the context of the stats don't use them.

 

Also, i'm sorry, but you simply can't make the argument that Fister is better than Lester or Beckett. You just can't.

 

It doesn't matter who he pitched against if you're comparing pitching at Safeco against pitching at Fenway.

 

He simply doesn't have any sort of advantage other than the ability to not give up BB's. Lester and Beckett both have better stuff, play in a worse stadium and division and have been doing it for years instead of having one good season and an excellent flukey one. You have no leg to stand on.

 

You are a huge homer and it shows. Fister is good, but not that good. He has decent stuff and good control, but he's not a borderline #1 caliber pitcher. I bet if you asked a scout or analyst whether Fister was better than Beckett or Lester they'd smack you upside the head.

[OriginalUsername]

The key factor is the home/road split, and a way to ascertain stadium and division difficulty. If you don't know the context of the stats don't use them.

 

Also, i'm sorry, but you simply can't make the argument that Fister is better than Lester or Beckett. You just can't.

 

It doesn't matter who he pitched against if you're comparing pitching at Safeco against pitching at Fenway.

 

He simply doesn't have any sort of advantage other than the ability to not give up BB's. Lester and Beckett both have better stuff, play in a worse stadium and division and have been doing it for years instead of having one good season and an excellent flukey one. You have no leg to stand on.

 

You are a huge homer and it shows. Fister is good, but not that good. He has decent stuff and good control, but he's not a borderline #1 caliber pitcher. I bet if you asked a scout or analyst whether Fister was better than Beckett or Lester they'd smack you upside the head.

 

 

Again, I don't know how else to explain this, but I have removed the Safeco factor. Their ERA+ and road splits are indentical. Good stuff doesn't mean you're a better pitcher. All the stats indicate that Fister prevents runs at an equal or better rate than Beckett. I can't help it if Fister has an equal ERA+ and better ERA and FIP on the ROAD than Beckett and cost 60 million less. Doesn't make me a homer.

[User Name]

Again' date=' I don't know how else to explain this, but I have removed the Safeco factor. Their ERA+ and road splits are indentical. Good stuff doesn't mean you're a better pitcher. All the stats indicate that Fister prevents runs at an equal or better rate than Beckett. I can't help it if Fister has an equal ERA+ and better ERA and FIP on the ROAD than Beckett and cost 60 million less. Doesn't make me a homer.[/quote']

 

No you haven't removed the Safeco factor at all, since it represents most of the sample size. FIP only sees factors the pitcher can control which are BB/HR/HBP/K, and anyone who pitches in a stadium that neutralizes HR's and doesn't give up a lot of BB's will have a low FIP. Again, if you can't put the stats in context, don't use them.

 

Also, money is inconsequential to a pitcher's effectiveness.

 

Fister doesn't prevent runs at a rate "equal or better" than Beckett because they've never pitched in the same conditions. Beckett would far surpass Fister's production if he pitched at Safeco, since it would neutralize his problem with HR allowed, just as it has neutralized Fister's and all Safeco pitchers.

 

A pitcher is good or isn't regardless of how much money he makes.

 

Oh, and yes, you are a homer. Comparing Fister's 452 IP, of which over half were pitched and Safeco to Josh Beckett or Jon Lester borders on epidemic homerism.

[OriginalUsername]

No you haven't removed the Safeco factor at all, since it represents most of the sample size. FIP only sees factors the pitcher can control which are BB/HR/HBP/K, and anyone who pitches in a stadium that neutralizes HR's and doesn't give up a lot of BB's will have a low FIP. Again, if you can't put the stats in context, don't use them.

 

Also, money is inconsequential to a pitcher's effectiveness.

 

Fister doesn't prevent runs at a rate "equal or better" than Beckett because they've never pitched in the same conditions. Beckett would far surpass Fister's production if he pitched at Safeco, since it would neutralize his problem with HR allowed, just as it has neutralized Fister's and all Safeco pitchers.

 

A pitcher is good or isn't regardless of how much money he makes.

 

Oh, and yes, you are a homer. Comparing Fister's 452 IP, of which over half were pitched and Safeco to Josh Beckett or Jon Lester borders on epidemic homerism.

 

What don't you understand about road splits or not in Safeco? Their road numbers are indentical. The FIP and ERA are AWAY from safeco and are the same or better than Beckett's away from Fenway. You keep saying Beckett would far surpass Fister if he played at Safeco, but I'm not even including Fister's statistics at home, nor am I including Beckett's statistics at Fenway. If you makes feel better hanging your hat on the Safeco factor, then go ahead.

[User Name]

What don't you understand about road splits or not in Safeco? Their road numbers are indentical. The FIP and ERA are AWAY from safeco and are the same or better than Beckett's away from Fenway. You keep saying Beckett would far surpass Fister if he played at Safeco' date=' but I'm not even including Fister's statistics at home, nor am I including Beckett's statistics at Fenway. If you makes feel better hanging your hat on the Safeco factor, then go ahead.[/quote']

 

That doesn't help your argument, it helps mine. Beckett pitches most of his road games on launching pads like Baltimore, Yankee Stadium and Toronto, Fister pitched most of his road games in Oakland and Angel Stadium. The one launching pad was Texas.

 

"Hanging my hat" on the Safeco factor makes all the sense in the world, because it's a fact that the stadium and division handed Fister a significant advantage.

 

If he can pitch over a sustained period of time in Detroit like he pitched all of 2011, then you may have an argument. As of right now, it's asinine. But it's okay, i understand. You have to defend the "home team".

[OriginalUsername]

LOL you're not defending the home team? I stated Fister has better numbers than all the Boston starters and it's true. You just keep coming up with things like ballparks and opponents to lessen the blow that Boston has dropped millions of dollars in starting pitching and Fister is pitching just as well.

[User Name]

LOL you're not defending the home team? I stated Fister has better numbers than all the Boston starters and it's true. You just keep coming up with things like ballparks and opponents to lessen the blow that Boston has dropped millions of dollars in starting pitching and Fister is pitching just as well.

 

LOL Fister is not even pitching. And he's pitched 400 innings. It's an idiotic statement.

 

Also, it's the truth. Fister is not that good. Sorry it bothers you and your defense of the "home team".

 

Also, Brandon Mcarthy is better than Doug Fister. He had a better BB/9 and had a better FIP than Fister last year. Better ERA+ too.

[OriginalUsername]

LOL Fister is not even pitching. And he's pitched 400 innings. It's an idiotic statement.

 

Also, it's the truth. Fister is not that good. Sorry it bothers you and your defense of the "home team".

 

Also, Brandon Mcarthy is better than Doug Fister. He had a better BB/9 and had a better FIP than Fister last year. Better ERA+ too.

 

One I'm using career numbers not last year. Fister has two full seasons under his belt. What more does he need? In 10+ years Beckett has only pitched 200 innings 3 times. I guess that's something else they have in common. Beckett is not any better than Fister and costs a lot more. I'm sorry blowing 68 million on Beckett bother's you.