Bard to Rotation a Mistake?

[Dojji]

Letting Pap walk was his worst mistake. Ortiz was his 2nd worst mistake. Scu's departure was his 3rd worst mistake. Signing these "pitching depth" and coverting Bard as starter could be his 4th worst mistake.

 

Letting Pap walk wasn't *his* mistake. That die was cast when Theo failed to give Papelbon the big extension he wanted while he was still under team control. I'm not going to hold that against Cherington when all the big decisions that resulted to Paps leaving were made before he got the job.

 

As fpr Ortiz? Could it be any plainer to someone paying even the slightest bit of attention that re-signing Ortiz was an ownership mandate? As it was the last time he was re-upped? Ownership is convinced Papi helps them fill their squalid, obsolete little stadium so of course they're going to pay him what it takes to keep him happy.

 

Scutaro's departure was the correct move. I will defend that move, because I recognize just how far past his prime Scutaro was. He was a terrible for for what we needed going forward, especially with Youkilis at third providing no range whatsoever to cover for him. The man was no longer a starting shorstop.

[iortiz]

Letting Pap walk wasn't *his* mistake. That die was cast when Theo failed to give Papelbon the big extension he wanted while he was still under team control. I'm not going to hold that against Cherington when all the big decisions that resulted to Paps leaving were made before he got the job.

 

As fpr Ortiz? Could it be any plainer to someone paying even the slightest bit of attention that re-signing Ortiz was an ownership mandate? As it was the last time he was re-upped? Ownership is convinced Papi helps them fill their squalid, obsolete little stadium so of course they're going to pay him what it takes to keep him happy.

 

Scutaro's departure was the correct move. I will defend that move, because I recognize just how far past his prime Scutaro was. He was a terrible for for what we needed going forward, especially with Youkilis at third providing no range whatsoever to cover for him. The man was no longer a starting shorstop.

 

Beyond the name, those were FO's decisions. In the end we could pay for those decisions for 4th year in a row. Only time will tell, though.

[a700hitter]

So? We still go 8 deep before we start running into the real crap, which is Andrew Miller in my mind.

 

Beckett

Lester

Buchholz

Doubront

Bard

Aceves

Padilla

Cook

 

And that's without counting Matsuzaka who could make it back sometine in midseason.

 

Our starting pitching depth is not our problem. It's about durability and dependability after Beckett and Lester (not sparing Buchholz here because we're asking him to play above his career level so far in terms of IP and durability.

 

You're not going to solve that problem by signing Edwin Jackson or the corpse of Roy Oswalt.

Doubront (3 career starts)

Bard (0 career starts)

Aceves (9 career starts)

Padilla (0 starts 2011)

Cook (17 starts 2011 6.03 ERA)

 

and this is before we get to the real crap.

 

and if Matsuzaka makes it back as part of the rotation before game 81, I'll send you a six pack.

[ORS]

Doubront (3 career starts)

Bard (0 career starts)

Aceves (9 career starts)

Padilla (0 starts 2011)

Cook (17 starts 2011 6.03 ERA)

 

and this is before we get to the real crap.

 

and if Matsuzaka makes it back as part of the rotation before game 81, I'll send you a six pack.

You've been consistently stating this position on Matsuzaka's return? How closely have you looked at the timetable for TJS return? What is driving your pessimism that he'll be unable to adhere to the timetable trend established by the other pitchers who have recently returned from TJS, a timetable that has him back by early June?

[Dojji]

Beyond the name' date=' those were FO's decisions. [/quote']

 

Then say Lucchino. He's the head honcho in the front office right now I'd have backed you in criticizing Lucchino for failing to bring Paps back.

 

In the end we could pay for those decisions for 4th year in a row. Only time will tell, though.

 

Third year, I'd say. I'm not going to count making the playoffs as a "failure." I'm not that spoiled. Not yet.

[Dojji]

Doubront (3 career starts)

Bard (0 career starts)

Aceves (9 career starts)

Padilla (0 starts 2011)

Cook (17 starts 2011 6.03 ERA)

 

and this is before we get to the real crap.

 

and if Matsuzaka makes it back as part of the rotation before game 81, I'll send you a six pack.

 

So your point is that the bottom of our rotation will resemble... the bottom of a major league rotation? Despite 2 major injuries and a retirement?

 

What exactly is your point here?

[a700hitter]

So your point is that the bottom of our rotation will resemble... the bottom of a major league rotation? Despite 2 major injuries and a retirement?

 

What exactly is your point here?

No, my point is that there were two holes in the rotation, and a team with $174 million didn't add a single bona fide major league starter. The guys on the list were either totally (and I mean totally) unproven or damaged goods with little hope of recovery.

[a700hitter]

You've been consistently stating this position on Matsuzaka's return? How closely have you looked at the timetable for TJS return? What is driving your pessimism that he'll be unable to adhere to the timetable trend established by the other pitchers who have recently returned from TJS' date=' a timetable that has him back by early June?[/quote']In almost all of the cases I have looked at, if the pitcher returns at the 12 month mark it has been to get his feet wet and build some arm strength. This is usually done in September and then by the following season (18 months after surgery) they are at full strength. The return time is getting quicker in recent years, but I haven't seen anyone return within 12 months who takes a regular turn for half of a season. I'd love to see him come back healthy at mid-season, but until I see it, it's just a story to boost our spirits. Consider yourself on the list to get a six pack if he is back by game 81 and taking a regular turn in the rotation.

 

I'll defer to our resident medical expert (Jacko) on the recovery time, but I'm not going to take the position that we will get any great boost from Dice k in 2012..

[iortiz]

Then say Lucchino. He's the head honcho in the front office right now I'd have backed you in criticizing Lucchino for failing to bring Paps back.

 

Luchino? Ok blame Luchino then

 

Third year, I'd say. I'm not going to count making the playoffs as a "failure." I'm not that spoiled. Not yet.

 

Well, we have not won a single playoff game in 3 years, right?, maybe my bar is higher, but if you want to say 3; 3 then.

[ORS]

No' date=' my point is that there were two holes in the rotation, and a team with $174 million didn't add a single bona fide major league starter. The guys on the list were either totally (and I mean totally) unproven or damaged goods with little hope of recovery.[/quote']

That's just it, they are at $174M, right up against the cap, without these extra players you keep insisting are necessary. Where does that money come from? It's pretty clear they have every intention to stay under the soft cap. Is this where you find fault? That's a pretty unrealistic expectation.

[Station 13]

In almost all of the cases I have looked at, if the pitcher returns at the 12 month mark it has been to get his feet wet and build some arm strength. This is usually done in September and then by the following season (18 months after surgery) they are at full strength. The return time is getting quicker in recent years, but I haven't seen anyone return within 12 months who takes a regular turn for half of a season. I'd love to see him come back healthy at mid-season, but until I see it, it's just a story to boost our spirits. Consider yourself on the list to get a six pack if he is back by game 81 and taking a regular turn in the rotation.

 

I'll defer to our resident medical expert (Jacko) on the recovery time, but I'm not going to take the position that we will get any great boost from Dice k in 2012..

 

He's already throwing live BP and hitting 92MPH. Now whether he throw strikes is another thing.

[ORS]

In almost all of the cases I have looked at, if the pitcher returns at the 12 month mark it has been to get his feet wet and build some arm strength. This is usually done in September and then by the following season (18 months after surgery) they are at full strength. The return time is getting quicker in recent years, but I haven't seen anyone return within 12 months who takes a regular turn for half of a season. I'd love to see him come back healthy at mid-season, but until I see it, it's just a story to boost our spirits. Consider yourself on the list to get a six pack if he is back by game 81 and taking a regular turn in the rotation.

 

I'll defer to our resident medical expert (Jacko) on the recovery time, but I'm not going to take the position that we will get any great boost from Dice k in 2012..

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/70489-whither-matsuzaka/

 

June doesn't seem like a feel good story to me, looks pretty realistic.

[iortiz]

174 is the final number? what is the 2012 cap number? 180?

[iortiz]

Looking at ESPN we are at 160... I think this is not accurate or updated.

 

http://espndeportes.espn.go.com/beisbol/mlb/equipo/salaries/_/nombre/bos/boston-red-sox

[a700hitter]

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/70489-whither-matsuzaka/

 

June doesn't seem like a feel good story to me, looks pretty realistic.

You are on the list for the six pack if he starts taking a regular turn in the rotation by game 81. I've read all the articles about his progress, and they surely look encouraging. I heard that he was hitting 91 or 92 the other day. However, I am waiting for the prima dona from Japan to sleep on a pea and have his inevitable setback. I'll be ecstatic if he can help us in September.

[iortiz]

At baseball reference:

 

Signed Players With Guaranteed Contracts (does not include players with options) $36 M

 

Dollars Committed Value of Guaranteed Contracts (no options are exercised and includes buyouts) $170.1M

[Station 13]

Looking at ESPN we are at 160... I think this is not accurate or updated.

 

http://espndeportes.espn.go.com/beisbol/mlb/equipo/salaries/_/nombre/bos/boston-red-sox

 

that's seems to be only 25 man roster. the complete roster is 40. The minimum pay is 500K/or split for those guys not on the 25 roster.

[ORS]

174 is the final number? what is the 2012 cap number? 180?

$178M is the cap.

 

And, don't know what the Sox actual number is right now. No site is posting 2012 figures until rosters are set. I just went with what he posted for the sake of illustrating that there isn't much room in the budget for adding cost.

[iortiz]

that's seems to be only 25 man roster. the complete roster is 40. The minimum pay is 500K/or split for those guys not on the 25 roster.

 

I do not know man, they say that NY is at 196 M in the same list.

[ORS]

that's seems to be only 25 man roster. the complete roster is 40. The minimum pay is 500K/or split for those guys not on the 25 roster.

Plus there are benefits and bonuses that go into the final cap number.

[iortiz]

$178M is the cap.

 

And, don't know what the Sox actual number is right now. No site is posting 2012 figures until rosters are set. I just went with what he posted for the sake of illustrating that there isn't much room in the budget for adding cost.

 

Hell, if 178 is the cap and ESPN is correct or kind of, NY is over by around 15.

 

If the strategy was stay under the cap, fine... but as I said early, Still, they could use Ortiz money in pitching. They chose other strategy/plan. They signed Ortiz, and the rest is history. In the the end only time will tell if they made the right moves.

[SCM33]

Hell, if 178 is the cap and ESPN is correct or kind of, NY is over by around 15.

 

If the strategy was stay under the cap, fine... but as I said early, Still, they could use Ortiz money in pitching. They chose other strategy/plan. They signed Ortiz, and the rest is history. In the the end only time will tell if they made the right moves.

 

The best way to look at it was losing Papelbon instead of Ortiz.

 

We have plenty of offense and Lavarnway will either rot on the bench or be sent to AAA. Meanwhile, we have no closer.

[iortiz]

The best way to look at it was losing Papelbon instead of Ortiz.

 

We have plenty of offense and Lavarnway will either rot on the bench or be sent to AAA. Meanwhile, we have no closer.

 

Well, that is another good perspective, looking at it year by year.

[ORS]

Hell, if 178 is the cap and ESPN is correct or kind of, NY is over by around 15.

 

If the strategy was stay under the cap, fine... but as I said early, Still, they could use Ortiz money in pitching. They chose other strategy/plan. They signed Ortiz, and the rest is history. In the the end only time will tell if they made the right moves.

I agree that they could have let Ortiz go and handed over the DH duties to Lavarnway. I would have even supported such a move, as it would have been the best way to free up resources to address other needs. However, handing the job to a rookie has it's own risks. While I think Lavarnway is an exciting young player, it's a bit much to expect he could come in and perform at the level Ortiz can in his first full year at the MLB level.

 

Ortiz had an RC of 111 last year. Projections for Lavarnway put his RC anywhere from 30-60, depending on playing time, for 2012. Now, these are just projections, and it's certainly possible that he could be much better, as these projections don't do a very good job of forecasting when young players will "breakout" and play in the big leagues like they did in the minors. However, there's real risk in such a move.

[Dojji]

The best way to look at it was losing Papelbon instead of Ortiz.

 

That's a terrible way to look at it. The Ortiz contract drama wasn't over when Papelbon signed. We could easily have lost both.

[SCM33]

That's a terrible way to look at it. The Ortiz contract drama wasn't over when Papelbon signed. We could easily have lost both.

 

Thats a terrible way to look at it. The Ortiz contract drama wouldn't have ever existed if they just cut bait from day 1. They could have easily lost only one (the other one).

[ORS]

The best way to look at it was losing Papelbon instead of Ortiz.

 

We have plenty of offense and Lavarnway will either rot on the bench or be sent to AAA. Meanwhile, we have no closer.

This is pretty much the tradeoff. Papelbon/Lavarnway vs Bailey/Ortiz.

 

However, saying the team has no closer is a bit disingenuous in your review of the tradeoff. The acquired a closer. The position did not get overlooked. Unfortunately, the guy they acquired got injured in a Spring Training collision, and yes, this guy has a history of injuries, so they acquired another young reliever with experience closing.

 

We'll see how it plays out.

[iortiz]

I agree that they could have let Ortiz go and handed over the DH duties to Lavarnway. I would have even supported such a move, as it would have been the best way to free up resources to address other needs. However, handing the job to a rookie has it's own risks. While I think Lavarnway is an exciting young player, it's a bit much to expect he could come in and perform at the level Ortiz can in his first full year at the MLB level.

 

Ortiz had an RC of 111 last year. Projections for Lavarnway put his RC anywhere from 30-60, depending on playing time, for 2012. Now, these are just projections, and it's certainly possible that he could be much better, as these projections don't do a very good job of forecasting when young players will "breakout" and play in the big leagues like they did in the minors. However, there's real risk in such a move.

 

IMO We would have been fine with Lav/Youk/Aviles sharing the DH/SS/3B. Our offense probably wouldn't have been the #1 like last year but It would have been solid even without Ortiz. Our offense is not the problem IMO.

 

On the other hand, our pitching scares me a lot ORS, in both BP and rotation. If one of our top 3 goes to DL for a long time or underperform we will be in a big predicament again this season. If this happens, Probably we will live some september flashes again (knocking wood). By now, we have lost our titular closer and this hasn't even started.

 

I'm crossing my fingers, and hopefully everything will be right with our team.

[iortiz]

I'm going to look at the other side of the coin as well in order to be fair.

 

Crawford, Kalish, D-K and even Bailey are expected to return at some points in the season. Right?. If they return strong and healthy, and our current team stays healthy/solid by the time, be careful with the Boston Red Sox, we could even make the WS, I mean it. :thumbsup:

[ORS]

I'm going to look at the other side of the coin as well in order to be fair.

 

Crawford, Kalish, D-K and even Bailey are expected to return at some points in the season. Right?. If they return strong and healthy, and our current team stays healthy/solid by the time, be careful with the Boston Red Sox, we could even make the WS, I mean it. :thumbsup:

Not only that, but if Doubront sticks as a viable starter, Bard will likely return to the BP to limit his overall innings in his first year transitioning to SP. The 2nd half BP will feature Bailey, Melancon, Bard, Aceves, and Hill (he gets back from TJS before Matsuzaka, and he looked really good last year).