Bard to Rotation a Mistake?

[Dojji]

That's a horrible comparison. Aaron Cook is not going to come out and throw to a 5.85 ERA like Byrd did.

 

I was thinking more about his career as a ~ 100 ERA+ man.

 

And I would not rule out that level of performance from Cook. This is a hard division for a pitch-to-contact guy to manage.

[Elktonnick]

That's a horrible comparison. Aaron Cook is not going to come out and throw to a 5.85 ERA like Byrd did.

 

Cook was hurt in 2010 and 2011, and for the 4 years preceding that, he threw 748 IP (averaging 188 IP per season) to a 4.11 ERA. And it's not like he played at Petco. I'd say Coors is a pretty good hitters park.

 

I'm not saying he's going to be a sub-3 or even sub-4 ERA guy. But if he can go out there, grind out innings and throw to a 4.2-4.5 ERA, eat up 180+ innings, what more can you ask from your #5 guy?

 

I vote for Doubront and Cook ( once he is stretched enough) They can go with 4 starters for the ffirst time tthrough the rotation barring injuries because of days off. Bard and Aceves may have desereved an opportunity to prove they cans start but neither has sealed the deal. Quite frankly, I am more woprried now about the bull pen since Melancon hasn't shown anything.

[SoxFanForsyth]

True' date=' Doubront has stepped up, but he has not been close to eye-popping. He has one or more innings in each outing where he loses the plate badly. He has not been a consistent strike thrower. Cook has remained healthy, which is a big deal for him, but he is nothing special. He could be a big punching bag in the ALE, because he has no ability to put batters away with a K. Overall, I am not encouraged about the bottom of the rotation, not yet.[/quote']

 

Well no, Doubront isn't going to be Justin Verlander, but you have to remember - we're talking about the back end of the rotation here. If we can get Doubront 150 to 160 innings of 4.00-4.10 ERA baseball, that would be my definition of him stepping up. And after what we've seen from him, I don't think that's at all out of the realm of possibility. He's not going to be a 8.5 K/9 guy. He'll sit at around a 7.1-7.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, but he'll give us quality innings and keep us in the game like he has, and occasionally flash some brilliant 7-8 inning, 1-2 ER starts.

 

You have to remember what the back end of our rotation did last season. Wake, Lackey, Miller, Weiland. 68 Starts between those 4. And none of them posted an ERA as a starter under 5.31.

 

That's 42% of your starts coming from 4 guys, none of which posted an ERA under 5.31 ERA.

 

And on August 31, this team was still 30 games over .500. That's where I am encouraged. We don't need our #4 and #5 starters to somehow replicate some Cy Young seasons from last year. Not at all. We just need them to be average to below average and not horrendous.

 

Not saying anyone here does this, but far too many people are putting entirely too much emphasis on September and not nearly enough emphasis on April - August when analyzing this team.

[Elktonnick]

I was thinking more about his career as a ~ 100 ERA+ man.

 

And I would not rule out that level of performance from Cook. This is a hard division for a pitch-to-contact guy to manage.

 

Got to love a sinker ball pitcher though

[jung]

Doubront has been fine as far as ST pitching goes and deserves the spot probably as the 4. I don't think anybody has been "lights out" when you consider what these guys are gong to face in real MLB line ups day in and day out. Doubront is out of options and has in fact shown signs that he had this kind of potential. I don't think he is as much a pleasant surprise as much other guys have been something of a disappointment.

 

Some of us have been talking about Doubront for months now.

 

Cook is kinda' scary. Wish we had more time to see where he is. If I had my way, Cook would start for the PawSox. Get some more work there and be the first option up as a starter for Boston when the inevitable injuries start happening. As I said earlier, I think Doubront and Cook are the only two guys that have pitched with the presence, composure and mentality of starters. if I had to decide today it would be Doubront as the 4 for the way he has pitched and Bard as the 5 because he has so much upside as a starter and because it is looking more and more like dice is back by July limiting the number of starts Bard would get anyway.

 

Aceves would go to the pen because he is certainly the most versatile reliever in baseball and maybe for that reason (other than the best closer in baseball) the best reliever in baseball. I just don't think the Sox can afford to have Aceves in the rotation.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I was thinking more about his career as a ~ 100 ERA+ man.

 

And I would not rule out that level of performance from Cook. This is a hard division for a pitch-to-contact guy to manage.

 

Derek Lowe put up 3 seasons of 4.07 ERA sinkerball baseball in the AL East as a starter, and that was during the steroid era.

 

He had 1 horrible season (2004, 5.42 ERA) and 1 brilliant season (2002, 2.58 ERA). So average those together with his seemingly normal season in 2003 - 4.47 ERA, and I think that's around what you can project for Cook. Around a 4.1 to 4.4 ERA.

 

Lowe had a 5.1 K/9, probably around what you're going to get from Cook. Threw a lot of strikes (2.8 BB/9) much like Cook (Career 2.8 BB/9).

 

I think Lowe is a very good comparison, and I think you can probably expect to get the same out of Cook as you got out of Lowe - a low to mid 4's ERA.

[Dojji]

Got to love a sinker ball pitcher though

 

http://images.wikia.com/baseball/images/7/7c/Julian_Tavarez.jpg

[Dojji]

Derek Lowe put up 3 seasons of 4.07 ERA sinkerball baseball in the AL East as a starter' date=' and that was during the steroid era.[/quote']

 

Derek Lowe has putaway pitches. It would be like calling Roy Halladay a pitch-to-contact type.

[Elktonnick]

http://images.wikia.com/baseball/images/7/7c/Julian_Tavarez.jpg

 

Got to be the wackiest Red Sox character (in a nice way) since Oil Can Boyd

[SoxFanForsyth]

Derek Lowe has putaway pitches. It would be like calling Roy Halladay a pitch-to-contact type.

 

5.1 K/9 while in Boston. How is that having put away pitches??

[Dojji]

I'd take what Tavarez was in '07 on the back of this rotation. I'd hope for a little more, but he did provide a 92 ERA+ that year.

[Dojji]

5.1 K/9 while in Boston. How is that having put away pitches??

 

Compare that to Cook's 3.8 k/9.

 

This is why I was so adamantly against trading Justin Masterson. A guy who can do the sinkerball thing and strike people out is frequently named Roy Halladay.

[Station 13]

http://images.wikia.com/baseball/images/7/7c/Julian_Tavarez.jpg

 

He's reborn in Aceves.

[jung]

Lowe and Cook are not the same pitchers. I like Cook and I hope we get something out of Cook this year. Lowe could actually get away with a few pitches in the middle of the plate. I don't think Cook can. Anything up in the strike zone for Cook is headed for orbit.

[Dojji]

He's reborn in Aceves.

 

Tavarez never had a year where he could do what Aceves did last year.

 

I don't think people realize just how rare Aceves' skillset is -- to be able to come in at unpredictable times out of the bullpen and pitch 3 innings? That just doesn't happen. Wouldn't be surprised if Aceves couldn't do that again.

[RedSoxNC84]

Doubront has been fine as far as ST pitching goes and deserves the spot probably as the 4. I don't think anybody has been "lights out" when you consider what these guys are gong to face in real MLB line ups day in and day out. Doubront is out of options and has in fact shown signs that he had this kind of potential. I don't think he is as much a pleasant surprise as much other guys have been something of a disappointment.

 

Some of us have been talking about Doubront for months now.

 

Cook is kinda' scary. Wish we had more time to see where he is. If I had my way, Cook would start for the PawSox. Get some more work there and be the first option up as a starter for Boston when the inevitable injuries start happening. As I said earlier, I think Doubront and Cook are the only two guys that have pitched with the presence, composure and mentality of starters. if I had to decide today it would be Doubront as the 4 for the way he has pitched and Bard as the 5 because he has so much upside as a starter and because it is looking more and more like dice is back by July limiting the number of starts Bard would get anyway.

 

Aceves would go to the pen because he is certainly the most versatile reliever in baseball and maybe for that reason (other than the best closer in baseball) the best reliever in baseball. I just don't think the Sox can afford to have Aceves in the rotation.

 

I have a lot more confidence in Doubront starting than Cook. Even though it's spring training, Cook has pitched to a .167 BAA and .86 WHIP in 9.1 innings. I'd like to see more of him, but I agree, he should go down to AAA a little bit to get some more work in.

 

Bard I'm worried about somewhat, I do think that he has the stuff to be a starter, but I think he needs more time to work on his control and selection before he starts facing major league hitters in the regular season.

[Dojji]

Not practical. That would involve sending Bard to Pawtucket. If they want Bard to start, he's going to have to learn on the job. That means there's definitely going to be nights where he gets rocked, especially early on.

[RedSoxNC84]

Not practical. That would involve sending Bard to Pawtucket. If they want Bard to start' date=' he's going to have to learn on the job. That means there's definitely going to be nights where he gets rocked, especially early on.[/quote']

 

I know it's not practical at all, I was just merely saying I wish he could get more work in before facing big league hitters. I guess we'll just have to settle for seeing him get rocked from time to time. Let's hope he picks it up quickly.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bard as a reliever sits 97+. Bard as a starter is likely going to sit 94ish. That makes his secondary pitches and location much more important. He's not ready, his location is still off (3 more walks today in 6 innings), and he's getting hit pretty hard. There is a point where a guy learns on the job and a point where he is hurting your team. The AL is absolutely stacked this yr and if starting Bard for 2 months puts you behind the 8 ball, then the idea needs to be scrapped.

[SoxFanForsyth]

After Daniel Bard's six-inning outing against the Blue Jays in Dunedin, Fla. Sunday -- in which he surrendered five runs on six hits while striking out five and walking three -- Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine had praise for his pitcher.

 

"Overall, I liked everything," Valentine told reporters following the Blue Jays' 6-5, 10-inning win. "Had some tough breaks, I thought. Worked his way out of jams. Had some pitches that could've been called strikes, didn't let it affect him. Threw all of his pitches today. His changeup at times was devastating. His slider was sharp at times. What was there not to like other than the five runs on the board? And I think some of them could've been prevented."

 

Bard was equally as optimistic, having pointed out the ability to use his changeup (which he threw approximately 10 of) and two-seam fastball. This after throwing just one changeup in his last outing.

 

"Yeah, I think a lot of good things happened," the righty told reporters after throwing 85 pitches. "I was walking in with [catcher Kelly Shoppach] and he goes, 'How many runs did they end up getting' Five. He goes, 'It felt like two.' I said, I felt the same way. It was kind of like they kept slapping one on there every inning. Kind of just felt like I threw the ball well in each of those innings but every hit they needed kind of fell through, or the groundballs got through. I felt like they were hitting some good pitches. The funny thing about spring training games, you get some weird swings on pitches. They don’t know what they’re getting from you and sometimes you’re facing hitters you haven’t faced before. Get to two strikes, don’t know how to put a guy away because I don’t have a fresh scouting report on them, things like that. That makes for funky stuff in spring training. I’m just focusing on the way I threw the ball. I felt really good."

 

Bard, who allowed single runs in the second, third and fourth innings, along with two in the sixth, noted that this outing felt unlike his previous spring training outings.

 

"Today was the first game I can actually say I felt like a starting pitcher out there and not like a reliever starting," he said. "I used all four pitches, a steady mix of all four and then favor one and really did it and felt confident about it. I was throwing the changeup pretty consistently. I had a couple of bad ones. But for the most part, I got some big outs on it. Breaking ball kind of came and went throughout the day and two-seamer was a big pitch for me today. I threw probably 25 of them, 30 of them. I was able to work on a lot of things and take the five runs out of it, I feel pretty good."

 

Valentine agreed with Bard's assessment that the pitcher gave off the appearance of a starting pitcher.

 

"And he looked like one," said the manager when told of Bard's comments regarding feeling like a starter. "And I liked him in between innings. I liked how he was responding to things. I thought it was a really good look today. he worked runners when they were on base. He got ground balls when he needed to. Got some swings and misses when he needed to, too."

 

With a potential of exhibition two starts left before the Red Sox need a fourth starter, Valentine said he has not made a definitive decision regarding who will be filling that spot in the rotation.

 

"I haven't in my mind, no. But I think it's going to be an easy decision," he said. "It's not like we're going to be searching for pitchers to start games."

 

Sounds like both Bobby V and Bard are up for the challenge. There will be growing pains, but there will also be brilliant games as well. The good thing is that Bard has been efficient with his pitch counts.

 

Like I said earlier - His strand rate is going to be more than 30% this year, so a lot of the runners that are scoring right now would even out during the year.

 

But that's beside the point, because ST stats are meaningless. If they weren't, the A's would world beaters and the Rangers would be cellar dwellers, etc.

 

Bard's got another start or two before the season starts. His walks are progressively lowering. His offspeed stuff is progressively getting better. And his K% is progressively getting higher.

 

I'm good with him as a SP or in the bullpen, but I think he will succeed in either role.

[ORS]

Bard as a reliever sits 97+. Bard as a starter is likely going to sit 94ish. That makes his secondary pitches and location much more important. He's not ready' date=' his location is still off (3 more walks today in 6 innings), and he's getting hit pretty hard. There is a point where a guy learns on the job and a point where he is hurting your team. The AL is absolutely stacked this yr and if starting Bard for 2 months puts you behind the 8 ball, then the idea needs to be scrapped.[/quote']

I think you are overestimating the velocity drop. He's not like Papelbon or Chamberlain who only got into the upper 90's with max effort. And, this should be viewed as a long term gain for the team, ie not something you back away from at the first sign of adversity.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think you are overestimating the velocity drop. He's not like Papelbon or Chamberlain who only got into the upper 90's with max effort. And' date=' this should be viewed as a long term gain for the team, ie not something you back away from at the first sign of adversity.[/quote']

 

It would absolutely be a long term gain, but rarely do you see a guy not have some velo drop when moving between roles. I think the issue is that the sox are a team that expects to make the playoffs or be in contention. With the AL jam packed with solid teams, a project in the 5 hole and an uncertain #4 could be the death of them. If they strike gold with him, though, they'd be immeasurably helped. But I think he is better suited for the pen. There is a reason why they scrapped the rotation idea with him in the minors after one full season, he was a disaster

[SoxFanForsyth]

It would absolutely be a long term gain' date=' but rarely do you see a guy not have some velo drop when moving between roles. I think the issue is that the sox are a team that expects to make the playoffs or be in contention. With the AL jam packed with solid teams, a project in the 5 hole and an uncertain #4 could be the death of them. If they strike gold with him, though, they'd be immeasurably helped. But I think he is better suited for the pen. There is a reason why they scrapped the rotation idea with him in the minors after one full season, he was a disaster[/quote']

 

Saying Bard won't make it because of his performance in the rotation as an A ball pitcher is the equivalent of saying Jeter will never be a good shortstop because he made 56 errors in A ball in 1993.

 

Point is - players develop. Just like hitters develop pitch recognition, pitchers develop control and better offspeed stuff. So to say that Bard won't make it based on numbers he put up 5 years ago when he was 21 years old is a bit ridiculous, especially after the massive successes he had facing big league hitters for the past 3 years.

[SCM33]

I think you are overestimating the velocity drop. He's not like Papelbon or Chamberlain who only got into the upper 90's with max effort. And' date=' this should be viewed as a long term gain for the team, ie not something you back away from at the first sign of adversity.[/quote']

 

Where is that Jacko chart when you need it?

[ORS]

It would absolutely be a long term gain' date=' but rarely do you see a guy not have some velo drop when moving between roles. I think the issue is that the sox are a team that expects to make the playoffs or be in contention. With the AL jam packed with solid teams, a project in the 5 hole and an uncertain #4 could be the death of them. If they strike gold with him, though, they'd be immeasurably helped. But I think he is better suited for the pen. There is a reason why they scrapped the rotation idea with him in the minors after one full season, he was a disaster[/quote']

That pitcher would have been a disaster as a reliever, too, because that pitcher was in his first year of pro ball and couldn't find the plate. That pitcher has no relevance on Bard's chances to be a successful starter now, because that pitcher does not exist. Bard will succeed or fail based on if his stuff and stamina can be effective after 3-4 innings.

[jung]

I am picking myself up off the floor. V with something good to say about Bard????? I am stunned. V was actually more effusive than I thought he would be. Sounds like he is trying to pump the kid up for a change.

 

Maybe the fix is in. V gets Iggy as his everyday SS and Bard goes to the rotation as the concession.

 

I did not think Bard threw as many as 10 changes today. He surely threw more than one and threw it in places where it would do him some good.

 

I still think Bard's upside is what is helping make his case for at least the 5 hole combined with the fact that nobody has really stepped up and grabbed these spots by the balls. I still like Doubront as the 4 and Bard as the 5 and I am not sure I am going to see better options than that. Not saying that it is a great tandem down there at the bottom of the rotation but to me it is the best of what the Sox have for alternatives at this point and if Bard does continue to develop in that role, there is every chance that Bard can become a real contributor in the Sox rotation.

 

I just do not want to take Aceves out of the bullpen. He saves the Sox bacon in that role. I don't see him saving the Sox bacon as a starter. Imagine how ugly the second half would have been last year if Aceves was not coming in and putting out fires time after time after time? Do we really think that the Sox rotation or pen is good enough to pull that kind of productivity out of the relief role?

[User Name]

That pitcher would have been a disaster as a reliever' date=' too, because that pitcher was in his first year of pro ball and couldn't find the plate. That pitcher has no relevance on Bard's chances to be a successful starter now, because that pitcher does not exist. Bard will succeed or fail based on if his stuff and stamina can be effective after 3-4 innings.[/quote']

 

This has been pointed out several times to no avail. The Bard that pitched like he should have been selling used cars instead of playing baseball is not the same Bard trying to transition to the rotation right now. The stuff is there.

[jacksonianmarch]

The stuff was there then as well. The guy couldnt locate. They shortened his arsenal, dropping his windup and voila, he could locate. Now, they are trying to stretch him out and boom, he's walked 13 batters in 18 innings and only struck out 11. I know it is the spring, but do you find it weird that a guy who walked 1 batter every 3 innings last season out of the pen has walked over 2 batters every 3 innings in the spring? I know it is the spring, but Bard is a guy trying to win a spot. He isnt Lester or Beckett, who I could really care less about in terms of numbers. You know they can produce in the season. Bard is an unknown, and thus far, he's been awful. Learn the lesson of Joba. f*** with a good thing and you could get someone stuck in the middle.

[User Name]

Or, given the fact that Bard's not a cow with a bunch of known injury issues and that the Red Sox have the option of riding him out in the rotation instead of jerking him around, his future could be much better.

 

And, as you said, it's only the spring.

[jacksonianmarch]

Chamberlain had a knee and triceps issue coming out of college. Neither have given him trouble as a big leaguer. Chamberlain got yanked into and out of the rotation and led to shoulder and then elbow trouble.

 

And yes it is the spring. I am unsure you can take solace in today's performance. V has to make a choice soon