Red Sox 2012 Spring Training Thread.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't see that happening. That's basically 2nd/3rd starter production for most teams. He'll be lucky to get 10 wins and a 4.25 ERA. He seems like more of an 8-8 4.60 guy right now. Still better than Lackey and Wake.

 

Wow I couldn't disagree more. He was an 8-8, 4.30 ERA guy 2 years ago. 2 years of development, especially coming from ages 22 to 24, and he could easily be a 14 win, 3.7 ERA guy.

 

You have to remember, he's on a team with the best offense in all of baseball. Hell, Lackey won 12 games with a 6.41 ERA last year. So a 13-15 win season from Doubront, even if his ERA slides into the 3.85 area, is still very reasonable to expect.

 

I think you are looking too heavily on last year's numbers because he was injured and out of shape last year. The Sox put him on an entirely new nutrition program, new training program, and have changed his mechanics a little bit, and I think it's going to pay dividends.

[mvp 78]

In 2010, he was 2-2. AAA don't mean s***.

[Emmz]

And Beckett won how many games with a sub-3 ERA? On top of that, why are you projecting a 3.7 ERA? If there were some rational way to expect that, I think everyone would agree that our 5 starters have no questions. Thats simply not the case. If it happens thats just a plus, and you get props for it, but I cant see the logic in this.

[User Name]

ERA under 4.00 for Doubront and 14 wins out of the five spot? You're setting yourself up for disappointment if you're expecting those numbers.

[Emmz]

I think you projected Bard with a 3.5 ERA too, and I don't see the logic behind that either. I can't get my mind to spin it that way. If I could, I'd be a lot more optimistic about the rotation.

 

@SFF

[User Name]

Bard with a 3.5 ERA (given his stuff) is a lot more believable than Doubront with a 3.7 though.

[The Boomer]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xG6WHxvsqq4&feature=related

 

For those interested, here's a super clear version of the entire short:

 

http://www.220.ro/trailer/01-Bugs-Bunny-Baseball-Bugs-1946/PbldKmlPf6/

 

I love how all the players are on the field with cigars. Kind of puts some perspective on beer and chicken. :-)

 

I also just noticed that the teams switched home/away at some point. I've seen this hundreds of times and never caught that.

[Emmz]

Bard with a 3.5 ERA (given his stuff) is a lot more believable than Doubront with a 3.7 though.

 

Yeah, but thats still pretty unsound. It makes it sound like sub-4 ERAs in the AL East are common. We still don't know how he's going to hold up going longer than a couple innings, etc. I think ERA close to 4 for Bard and above for Doubront is more realistic.

[Emmz]

I also just noticed that the teams switched home/away at some point. I've seen this hundreds of times and never caught that.

 

Just imagine how bad Bugs wouldve beat 'em if he played the whole game.

 

Gas House Gorillas was it?

[The Boomer]

Just imagine how bad Bugs wouldve beat 'em if he played the whole game.

 

Gas House Gorillas was it?

 

Yes, but I note that they wear Yankee colors.

[User Name]

Yeah' date=' but thats still pretty unsound. It makes it sound like sub-4 ERAs in the AL East are common. We still don't know how he's going to hold up going longer than a couple innings, etc. I think ERA close to 4 for Bard and above for Doubront is more realistic.[/quote']

 

I'll be kissing the ground he walks on if Bard gives the Sox 170 IP of 4.20 ERA.

[Emmz]

If they're better than Lackey and Wakefield, they've already improved this team. The bar is set very low, but I'd still be disappointed with ERAs in excess of 5.

[The Boomer]

I'll be kissing the ground he walks on if Bard gives the Sox 170 IP of 4.20 ERA.

 

In 2011, Zack Greinke threw 171.2 innings with an ERA of 3.83 and John Danks threw 170.1 with an ERA of 4.33 . If we get that from Bard, he will displace Buchholz as the #3 of the staff.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If they're better than Lackey and Wakefield' date=' they've already improved this team. The bar is set very low, but I'd still be disappointed with ERAs in excess of 5.[/quote']

 

Rationale for Doubront:

 

He did well in his SSS in 2010, which is much more consistent with this year than 2011, when he was hurt and out of shape, never got going. Very impressed with the impressions he's left on guys who actually see him throw his BP sessions (i.e. McClure), and how well he's adjusting to any tweaks. His control has improved, which is something he struggled w last year (7 BB/9). I think it will all translate well into a solid season. Around a 3.7 ERA is reasonable. Projecting wins holds no water, it was just a number I threw out to complete the projections, but as shown last year w Beckett and Lackey, wins are too volatile.

 

Rationale for Bard:

 

He's got absolutely elite stuff. His BB/9 has decreased each year since coming up, and that was his biggest problem when he was a SP in A ball, which everyone seems to put a lot of weight on. He's got 2 plus plus pitches with his fastball and slider, and from all reports that I've heard (especially coming from Shoppach when talking about the TB dugout's reaction to his changeup), his change is a plus pitch, he just didn't throw it much because he didn't have to use it. Those are his words, not mine. So two plus-plus pitches, and a plus change up, especially when he's pumping 95-96 as a SP and touching 98, that translates well into a starters role.

 

I really need some rationale, outside of his A ball experience when he was walking 9 per 9, which really has no bearing on the 2012 season, as to why his ERA is going to somehow jump from a career 2.88 ERA as a RP to a 4.05-4.10 ERA as a SP. Getting up and throwing almost every other game (70 appearances last year, 73 the year before), along with the 20-25 dry humps (again, his words and estimate, not mine) takes a huge toll on a pitchers arm.

 

Talking about a guy like Alexi Ogando, who made the transition well and ended up with 170 IP last season, he had 43 appearances in 2010. Based on the comparative amount of appearances and how often Bard was throwing with a sore arm, he should be able to sit at around 165-180 IP this year with success and minimal tail off. He said in an interview recently that he's spoken with people who have made the transition from RP to SP that the toll on the arm is just as bad as a frequently used RP as it is on a 200 IP SP.

 

You guys can make your own call on Bard, that's fine, but I'm more apt to listen to the actual pitcher who has explored a lot of avenues of communication with pitchers who have made the transition and applied it to his situation. I used the comparison to Ogando at one point, but now I think he'll exceed Ogando's production because 1. he's a much better pitcher than Ogando, and 2. he's come off of two seasons which he's had almost twice as many appearances as Ogando did prior to making the transition.

 

So there are my rationales.

[SoxFanForsyth]

In 2011' date=' Zack Greinke threw 171.2 innings with an ERA of 3.83 and John Danks threw 170.1 with an ERA of 4.33 . If we get that from Bard, he will displace Buchholz as the #3 of the staff.[/quote']

 

Huh??

 

How will 170 IP of 4.33 ERA displace Buchholz as the #3??

[The Boomer]

Huh??

 

How will 170 IP of 4.33 ERA displace Buchholz as the #3??

 

Greinke and Danks are both #1/#2 on their teams. They'd be at least #3 on the Sox. In 2010 Buchholz threw 173.2 IP with an FIP of 4.34. Very similar numbers.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Greinke and Danks are both #1/#2 on their teams. They'd be at least #3 on the Sox. In 2010 Buchholz threw 173.2 IP with an FIP of 4.34. Very similar numbers.

 

Buch has posted a combined 3.10 ERA over his past 348 IP.

 

Personally, I'm not a huge fan of FIP. When a guy has a substantial amount of work (i.e. 350 innings), I think that his ERA should be considered rather than looking exclusively at FIP. I'm not a fan (at all) of putting stock standard numbers and then projecting ERA "if his BABIP was .300 and his strand rate was 72%", etc. It's like the Hitler of baseball. Some guys are better at situational pitching, some guys induce weaker contact because of better secondary pitches.

 

Best example:

 

2011 Stats

John Lackey: 4.71 FIP, 4.70 xFIP

Jeremy Hellickson: 4.44 FIP, 4.72 xFIP

 

Jeremy Hellickson was a much, much better pitcher than John Lackey last year, but FIP would make you believe that they are very similar.

 

Lets not forget, either, that before Buchholz got hurt last season, he was rolling. In his final 9 starts, he had a 2.59 ERA over 56 IP. That's averaging 7 IP per game.

[a700hitter]

I don't see that happening. That's basically 2nd/3rd starter production for most teams. He'll be lucky to get 10 wins and a 4.25 ERA. He seems like more of an 8-8 4.60 guy right now. Still better than Lackey and Wake.

I'll be doing back flips if we can get that from Felix the 5 hole.

[Emmz]

Yeah, I don't see any legitimate argument to be made for Doubront having a sub-4 ERA. If it were that simple, there would be no reason to pursue Oswalt or any of the other guys we were trying to get. That's not my only reasoning, I just don't feel up to debunking, but there's just nothing to go off of to substantiate that prediction.

[a700hitter]

Neither Bard or Doubront has any major league track record as a starter. Bard has elite stuff, but the only record he has as a starter in the professional ranks is as a failure. We have no basis for predicting their 2012 performances as starters. The best we can do is hope for the best, but I agree with Emmz. My mind doesn't spin in the direction of 15 win seasons with sub 4 ERA. Hell, I'd be okay with 200 innings and 15 win seasons with sub 4 ERA's from out top 3 guys. I think they can do better, but not a whole lot better and they are All Stars. I spent too many years of my youth in the 60's, 70's and 80's having expectations like that for guys who I can't even remember today. I can't go down that road.

[The Boomer]

Buch has posted a combined 3.10 ERA over his past 348 IP.

 

Personally, I'm not a huge fan of FIP. When a guy has a substantial amount of work (i.e. 350 innings), I think that his ERA should be considered rather than looking exclusively at FIP. I'm not a fan (at all) of putting stock standard numbers and then projecting ERA "if his BABIP was .300 and his strand rate was 72%", etc. It's like the Hitler of baseball. Some guys are better at situational pitching, some guys induce weaker contact because of better secondary pitches.

 

Best example:

 

2011 Stats

John Lackey: 4.71 FIP, 4.70 xFIP

Jeremy Hellickson: 4.44 FIP, 4.72 xFIP

 

Jeremy Hellickson was a much, much better pitcher than John Lackey last year, but FIP would make you believe that they are very similar.

 

Lets not forget, either, that before Buchholz got hurt last season, he was rolling. In his final 9 starts, he had a 2.59 ERA over 56 IP. That's averaging 7 IP per game.

 

The numbers don't support your contention, so I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. I'd be very happy if any #5 puts up numbers like you projected, but I'm not counting on it.

[a700hitter]

If Bard and Doubront perform to SFF's projections, I predict that they will win the AL East in a cake walk.

[a700hitter]

Salty in the first inning steal attempt looked to have quicker footwork than last season, but he double clutched and then bounced the throw. Hopefully, they can make some adjustments to his mechanics to help against the running game. Last year, there was no difference between lead off doubles or singles, because most of them ended up on second with no outs.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If Bard and Doubront perform to SFF's projections' date=' I predict that they will win the AL East in a cake walk.[/quote']

 

They may, they may not. But even if they don't, the SP for this team is extremely underrated. People are blowing up the SP entirely too much IMO.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Salty in the first inning steal attempt looked to have quicker footwork than last season' date=' but he double clutched and then bounced the throw. Hopefully, they can make some adjustments to his mechanics to help against the running game. Last year, there was no difference between lead off doubles or singles, because most of them ended up on second with no outs.[/quote']

 

Just as you say that, Salty throws a bullet and catches someone.

[a700hitter]

Valentine talks about his former shortstop

Posted by Nick Cafardo, Globe Staff March 4, 2012 11:31 AM

 

FORT MYERS, Fla - Bobby Valentine forewarned Twins shortstopTsuyoshi Nishioka that he would break his leg iif he didn't learn to get out of the way on the inside slide.

 

Nishioka broke his leg on a take-out slide by Yankees' rightfielder Nick Swisher last April 7th. Valentine had warned Nishioka who played for Valentine with the Chiba Lotte Marines in Japan over dinner in Fort Myers last March when Valentine was in town for a Baseball Tonight show.

 

"I came to Fort Myers last year to have dinner with him to tell him they’re going to try to break his legs and tried to show him how to get out of the way because he didn’t do that in Japan. He played second base for me the first year. We were doing the show. I actually got up to show him where he had to be on that double play because in Japan you don’t have to worry about the inside slide, only the outside slide. When a guy comes inside and rolls, he had to be out of the way. He gave me the old ‘Ya, ya,ya work harder, work harder. I understand I understand’ and he often did when he played for me," Valentine recalled..

 

"He broke his leg," Valentine said.

 

"I saw him I had him as a baby in Japan. I had him when he was one of the worst players on the field and I had him when he was one of the best players on the field. And sometimes it was within the same season," Valentine recalled.

 

Nishioka was today's starting shortstop for the Twins.

The actual conversation probably went like this:

 

Bobby V: I know what I am talking about. I have been playing, coaching and managing this game for over 40 years.

 

Nishioka: Yeah, yeah right.. old man.

 

Bobby V: Seriously kid, you are gonna get your leg broken if you don't clear out on the inside slide. I can spot these things. I have a trained eye.

 

Nishioka: Show me something you old fossil if you want my respect.

 

Bobby V.: Good luck kid. Break a leg.

[a700hitter]

Just as you say that' date=' Salty throws a bullet and catches someone.[/quote']He had good mechanics on that one. Good quick footwork and a quick release.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Beckett did not look sharp today. Couldn't find the zone at all. Ball was up a lot, too.

[a700hitter]

Beckett did not look sharp today. Couldn't find the zone at all. Ball was up a lot' date=' too.[/quote']It's so early that it doesn't matter. At this point, you just want them to stay healthy and get their reps. His velocity was okay for a first appearance.

[SoxFanForsyth]

It's so early that it doesn't matter. At this point' date=' you just want them to stay healthy and get their reps. His velocity was okay for a first appearance.[/quote']

 

True. 90-91. Good change.