AL East Showdown

RedSoxfanforlife305 · February 3, 2012

What do the experts say?

jacksonianmarch · February 3, 2012

100 extra innings over 3 seasons, a better WHIP, a better walk rate. But yeah, they're the same, of course.

SoxFanForsyth · February 3, 2012

That's naive

How so?? They have put up virtually the exact same stats over the past 3 years outside of IP. And Lester still was throwing 200+ IP each season.

You want to know what is naive? Claiming CC is better because, on average, he gets 2 more outs a game.

That's pretty ridiculous.

SoxFanForsyth · February 3, 2012

100 extra innings over 3 seasons' date=' a better WHIP, a better walk rate. But yeah, they're the same, of course.[/quote']

Wow. Really???

0.04 better in WHIP. CC has better walk rate, Lester has better K/9 and K%.

So, 2 outs per outing + 0.04 WHIP??

Dude. It's a wash.

Oh - and did I mention that over the past 3 years, Lester has the better xFIP?

jacksonianmarch · February 3, 2012

How so?? They have put up virtually the exact same stats over the past 3 years outside of IP. And Lester still was throwing 200+ IP each season.

You want to know what is naive? Claiming CC is better because, on average, he gets 2 more outs a game.

That's pretty ridiculous.

Outside of IP? Have you watched ANYTHING over the past 2 yrs? 30+IP per season is HUGE

jacksonianmarch · February 3, 2012

Also, FIP averaged over the last 3 yrs shows CC has a 0.10 advantage. Also, his WAR is almost 1 win per season better. It's a decided advantage. I cannot believe that a Red Sox fan is discounting innings pitched. LOLOLOL. If Lester threw 230IP last yr, you'd have had a playoff team

SoxFanForsyth · February 3, 2012

Outside of IP? Have you watched ANYTHING over the past 2 yrs? 30+IP per season is HUGE

Dude you aren't thinking at all. I guess I had too high of expectations for you.

What controls IP? Pitch counts.

Who throws more pitches? Guys who have higher K rates (and for that matter, higher BB rates).

CC throws to contact more, Lester strikes more people out. I'd rather have someone who can get out of a big spot with a K than to have someone who gets 2 outs more a start.

But regardless, they are a wash.

SoxFanForsyth · February 3, 2012

Also' date=' FIP averaged over the last 3 yrs shows CC has a 0.10 advantage. Also, his WAR is almost 1 win per season better. It's a decided advantage. I cannot believe that a Red Sox fan is discounting innings pitched. LOLOLOL. If Lester threw 230IP last yr, you'd have had a playoff team[/quote']

Really?? LOLOL??

What are you, a 4th grader?? His WAR is 0.8 better over 3 years, so 0.3 better per year. That's hardly an advantage.

Especially since Lester was injured last season.

jacksonianmarch · February 3, 2012

It's not like CC doesnt K anyone. You really think the extra K per 9 is worth 30 innings per season? That's just stupid

jacksonianmarch · February 3, 2012

Really?? LOLOL??

What are you, a 4th grader?? His WAR is 0.8 better over 3 years, so 0.3 better per year. That's hardly an advantage.

Especially since Lester was injured last season.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4930&position=P

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=404&position=P

jacksonianmarch · February 3, 2012

Wow. Really???

0.04 better in WHIP. CC has better walk rate, Lester has better K/9 and K%.

So, 2 outs per outing + 0.04 WHIP??

Dude. It's a wash.

Oh - and did I mention that over the past 3 years, Lester has the better xFIP?

and 2 outs PER OUTING is huge too. That's 1 less reliever the Yankees need to use PER GAME

SoxFanForsyth · February 3, 2012

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4930&position=P

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=404&position=P

Dude. Baseball-Reference. You only use fangraphs because it overvalues IP.

I would take a young, fit Lester for 200-210 IP over CC any day of the week.

jacksonianmarch · February 3, 2012

If you are talking at their cost and for the next 7 seasons, then yeah, Lester's the better bet. I am talking about 2012 here

SoxFanForsyth · February 3, 2012

I am saying I would rather have Lester in 2012 as well, regardless of cost, mainly due to the fact that CC is a DL trip waiting to happen after all of the innings he logs every year.

In terms of pure talent, they are a wash. From 2012 on, I take Lester, regardless of cost, and I think Lester outperforms CC in 2012.

jacksonianmarch · February 3, 2012

You're such a homer, lol

User Name · February 3, 2012

Pot, meet kettle. Kettle, meet pot.

On a side note, i'd take Lester long term.

TheWiffler · February 4, 2012

THeir rotation with Lester, Beckett, Bucholz, Bard and whoever will keep them near or at the top

jacksonianmarch · February 4, 2012

Everyone continues to wait for the year that CC goes on the DL. He's made 30 or more starts in 10 of his 11 seasons, and in the other season he still threw 192.2IP. He's the definition of durable. Marking him down because you think he will eventually hit the DL is assinine

Palodios · February 4, 2012

Everyone continues to wait for the year that CC goes on the DL. He's made 30 or more starts in 10 of his 11 seasons' date=' and in the other season he still threw 192.2IP. He's the definition of durable. Marking him down because you think he will eventually hit the DL is assinine[/quote']

There are a handful of truly exceptional athletes that excel beyond the rest of the field, and simply never get hurt. I don't expect Sabathia to decline for another five years. Rivera is kind of like that too-- we've been hoping for him to fall off a cliff or retire for over a decade now-- but odds are, they'll make it through 2012 without a scratch.

jacksonianmarch · February 4, 2012

It just baffles me that people can sit back and ding CC for the fact that he eats innings and is durable. How is that a bad thing? Would it have been better if he missed a yr and a half due to TJS so he could stay fresh? It's just a stupid argument

a700hitter · February 4, 2012

It just baffles me that people can sit back and ding CC for the fact that he eats innings and is durable. How is that a bad thing? Would it have been better if he missed a yr and a half due to TJS so he could stay fresh? It's just a stupid argument

The guy is a horse a security blanket for the team-- a bullpen saver. It drives me crazy that the Sox Big 3 get gassed by the 6th inning and 100 pitches.

Meh · February 4, 2012

Sure.

A) Your Guardians fans don't know what they're talking about.

B ) Your scenario proposes a lot of "ifs" understates the difference in pitching (Romero and ???) and disregards the fact that both the Red Sox and Yankees were miles better offensively last year.

Your point is mostly conjecture of what "could" happen and is not grounded in reality. The Red Sox also have a bunch of prospects who could be ready by mid-season. Don't mean they'll be up.

Sox, yankees, rangers have a lot of what ifs too. Its the off season, every team has what ifs. You're forgetting about Morrow, who I like a lot. Lawrie is going to put up monster numbers, the jays have upside... you got to admit that. Some times things fall into place, they could easily be a 92 win team if that happens, like the red sox could if bard is able to handle being a starter and your front 3 are healthy all year.

ORS · February 4, 2012

The guy is a horse a security blanket for the team-- a bullpen saver. It drives me crazy that the Sox Big 3 get gassed by the 6th inning and 100 pitches.

I question the validity of this. Francona, via the organization most likely, operated with a pretty close adherence to the 100-pitch count limit philosophy, as it was the conventional wisdom for a time there. Teams that have been more aggressive with pitch count limits have pretty successful lately.

My hope is that the organization is looking into this and realizing the benefit that could be obtained by letting their good pitchers have a longer leash, relieving strain on the BP. Might be wishful thinking, but I think it would be the best course of action.

I'm not so sure those guys were clearly gassed after 100 pitches/6 innings, but that's when they pretty much always got pulled. I think the capability is there, but has been unrealized to date.

User Name · February 4, 2012

Sox' date=' yankees, rangers have a lot of what ifs too. Its the off season, every team has what ifs. You're forgetting about Morrow, who I like a lot. Lawrie is going to put up monster numbers, the jays have upside... you got to admit that. Some times things fall into place, they could easily be a 92 win team if that happens, like the red sox could if bard is able to handle being a starter and your front 3 are healthy all year.[/quote']

Your "liking" a player doesn't make them effective. Morrow is a fantastic arm but he has yet to show any consistency at the MLB level. Saying otherwise is fallacy. And let's give Lawrie more than half a season before we anoint him the second coming of Jeff Kent.

I never questioned the validity of the Jays' upside. What i did question of their possible superiority over the Red Sox or Yankees for next year. As constructed, they don't have enough pitching (or offense for that matter) to overtake either team in 2012. Saying otherwise is wishful thinking.

jacksonianmarch · February 4, 2012

Other than an otherworldly season, the jays are finishing 4th

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