Speculative: Youk for Santana

[Scott34]

What would Red Sox fans feel about a Youkilis for Ervin Santana deal?

 

Sox need a starter and the Angels need a big bat at 3rd base, and Dipoto is focused upon OBP.

 

Salaries are very similar as well.

[iortiz]

Straight up? No prospects, no nothing?

[Scott34]

Don't think there needs to be. Santana really came into his own this year, and is a legit #2

[example1]

So, speculative means "completely out of thin air"? I was hoping there was some sort of substance here.

 

Speculating, I would say no. Youkilis is a legit cleanup hitter on any team. Santana is arguably a #2, possibly a #3. I like Santana, but I would hope to get more out of a deal for Youk.

[iortiz]

Considering the risks around Youk and our need of a solid SP plus low budget, it could work out for us.

 

He would be under contract till 2013 (option 12 MUsD). His ERA has improved the last three years. He was a 3.38 ERA pitcher in 2011 and he could put +- 4.0 ERA in Boston. He is 28.

 

I'm not sure if LAA would like to make that kind of deal without prospects on the table.

[Scott34]

I am an Angels fan and was wondering if Sox would do it.

 

Reportedly, the Angels like CJ Wilson and Wilson likes the Angels, so if that gets done, I could see a deal like this.

[Palodios]

I don't think so. Santana is overrated, overpaid, and pitches in the west.

[jacksonianmarch]

So, speculative means "completely out of thin air"? I was hoping there was some sort of substance here.

 

Speculating, I would say no. Youkilis is a legit cleanup hitter on any team. Santana is arguably a #2, possibly a #3. I like Santana, but I would hope to get more out of a deal for Youk.

 

You'd want more for Youkilis? Youk is coming off his second consecutive injured season, will be 33 by the time the season starts, and had a body type that is more equipped for beer drinking than playing 3b full time. Santana will be 29 on opening day, is coming off 3 200IP seasons in the last 4 and is coming off his second best season of his career. If the Angels offered you Santana for Youk straight up, Cherington would accept quicker than you can say "Cherington."

[iortiz]

A guy who put a 3.3 and a 3.9 ERa the last two years and is making 11 MUSD is overrated and overpaid?, besides, is not like he would be here for 7 years or something, if he shits the bed, Cya in 2013 or take the option, as simple as that.

 

I think that it could workout if we give him the 4th Spot, and who knows, if he continues that tendency, bingo! you have another SP for the coming future.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Yes plz.

[iortiz]

You'd want more for Youkilis? Youk is coming off his second consecutive injured season' date=' will be 33 by the time the season starts, and had a body type that is more equipped for beer drinking than playing 3b full time.[/b'] Santana will be 29 on opening day, is coming off 3 200IP seasons in the last 4 and is coming off his second best season of his career. If the Angels offered you Santana for Youk straight up, Cherington would accept quicker than you can say "Cherington."

 

 

That is my concern/risks about Youk.

[Palodios]

A guy who put a 3.3 and a 3.9 ERa the last two years and is making 11 MUSD is overrated and overpaid?' date=' [/quote']

 

We have a guy here who used to pitch for the Angels. He had a 3.8, a 3.7 and 3.01 ERA the three years before he came to Boston. His name is John Lackey, and we quickly learned the effect that a pitcher's park has on a guy's statistics. Its too soon iortiz. The wound is too deep.

[iortiz]

We have a guy here who used to pitch for the Angels. He had a 3.8' date=' a 3.7 and 3.01 ERA the three years before he came to Boston. His name is John Lackey, and we quickly learned the effect that a pitcher's park has on a guy's statistics. Its too soon iortiz. The wound is too deep.[/quote']

 

We are comparing oranges with apples Pal.

 

As I said, he only would be here for a year or maybe two.

 

Is not like we would commit 80 M or something close.

[Palodios]

We are comparing oranges with apples Pal.

 

As I said, he only would be here for a year or maybe two.

 

Is not like we would commit 80 M or something close.

 

How are we comparing apples and oranges? Everyone complained about Lackey before he got here because he pitched in a pitcher's league, how is Santana any different? They're coming from the exact same team.

 

Sure, you may not be paying as much for Santana, but you're also committing talent. Lackey didn't cost a middle of the order right handed bat.

 

The worst part is that if he does not work out, you lose Youkilis, and you can't even offer Santana arbitration because he'll make 13 million in an arb case.

[mvp 78]

I'd do it. Always injured and bad body type means little hope for a long career. Just don't see him as a real cleanup hitter. Very overrated IMO.

[jung]

Youk is a RH batter and in case nobody has mentioned it yet in this thread at this rate we won't have any of those. He does have to be rested more than he was last year as 1st base is no longer an option with the exception of a spot for him to play on occasion if the Sox do go for a rotating DH arrangement.

 

For now without Youk we would be left with Peddey, Scuts, Lavarnway and Salty....maybe Lowrie if he sticks around...Wow that should scare the opposing left hand pitchers around the league.

[a700hitter]

i don't see trading our only RH power hitting threat.

[iortiz]

How are we comparing apples and oranges? Everyone complained about Lackey before he got here because he pitched in a pitcher's league, how is Santana any different? They're coming from the exact same team.

 

Sure, you may not be paying as much for Santana, but you're also committing talent. Lackey didn't cost a middle of the order right handed bat.

 

The worst part is that if he does not work out, you lose Youkilis, and you can't even offer Santana arbitration because he'll make 13 million in an arb case.

 

1.- just because they come from the same team, makes them equal? I don't think so Pal. Correct me if I'm wrong but I have noticed that your arguments often rest on that you wouldn't bring a pitcher from other division to the AL East, but you let walk your ace in the pen and let somebody else unproved substitue him from other division? I don't get it.

 

2.- I said, if the deal is straight up, I'd do it, otherwise I would not.

 

3.- jacko already posted my concerns about Youk. IMO, Today, not career but today, Santana>Youk. Hell, I see a lot of red flags on Youk, seems like his career is not getting better but the opposite, but that's me.

[example1]

You'd want more for Youkilis? Youk is coming off his second consecutive injured season' date=' will be 33 by the time the season starts, and had a body type that is more equipped for beer drinking than playing 3b full time. Santana will be 29 on opening day, is coming off 3 200IP seasons in the last 4 and is coming off his second best season of his career. If the Angels offered you Santana for Youk straight up, Cherington would accept quicker than you can say "Cherington."[/quote']

 

Yep, I would want more to convince me to give him up. Would you trade Teixeira straight up for Youkilis at this point?

 

Santana has averaged 4.0 WAR over 162 games over his past 4 years. Youkilis? 6.8. (B-R.com WAR)

 

Regardless of the injuries, you're talking about a guy with a .399 OBP and a .523 SLG from 2009 to now, with the ability to play 1B or 3B. I know he's been injured, but if Gonzalez gets injured and needs to move off 1B for awhile, or if the DH spot opens up, you keep one of the top bats in the game.

 

From 2009 to today, of players who have had a minimum of 900 PAs, Youkilis ranks 7th in OBP, 20th in SLG, and 10th in OPS.

 

Someone will need to offer me a convincing argument that Ervin Santana is a great pitcher. In 2011 B-R had him at 3.1 WAR, tied with Edwin Jackson and Randy Wolf for 48th in baseball. Fangraphs had him at 43rd, with a 3.2 WAR, right there with Javier Vazquez, John Danks and Matt Latos.

 

I'm not about to trade an elite bat for a non-elite SP, all things being equal. I realize WAR is not the be-all and end all, but the guy is nowhere near a shut-down starter. I think he would be a #3 or #4 on this team, and they don't need to be trading arguably their 2nd best hitter for a 3rd or 4th best starter.

[ipot]

Not my speculation, but back in August there was chatter here in NYC that the OTHER Santana, as in Johan, and David Wright would be part of a deal involving Youk and Lackey.

 

The Mets are losing money like sieve, but Lackey's TJ surgery just threw that out the window.

[iortiz]

Yep, I would want more to convince me to give him up. Would you trade Teixeira straight up for Youkilis at this point?

 

Santana has averaged 4.0 WAR over 162 games over his past 4 years. Youkilis? 6.8. (B-R.com WAR)

 

Regardless of the injuries, you're talking about a guy with a .399 OBP and a .523 SLG from 2009 to now, with the ability to play 1B or 3B. I know he's been injured, but if Gonzalez gets injured and needs to move off 1B for awhile, or if the DH spot opens up, you keep one of the top bats in the game.

 

From 2009 to today, of players who have had a minimum of 900 PAs, Youkilis ranks 7th in OBP, 20th in SLG, and 10th in OPS.

 

Someone will need to offer me a convincing argument that Ervin Santana is a great pitcher. In 2011 B-R had him at 3.1 WAR, tied with Edwin Jackson and Randy Wolf for 48th in baseball. Fangraphs had him at 43rd, with a 3.2 WAR, right there with Javier Vazquez, John Danks and Matt Latos.

 

I'm not about to trade an elite bat for a non-elite SP, all things being equal. I realize WAR is not the be-all and end all, but the guy is nowhere near a shut-down starter. I think he would be a #3 or #4 on this team, and they don't need to be trading arguably their 2nd best hitter for a 3rd or 4th best starter.

 

Youk's career numbers are great. No doubt about it. But...

 

What do you really think about his tendency as a MLB player? Do you think that he is gonna stay healthy and will perform as a everyday 3B and put at least something around his career numbers the next couple of years? If the answer is yes, I wouldn't trade him, no way... Unfourtunatly, I don't see that scenario.

 

IMO Santana's career is more likely going up and Youk's just the opposite.

 

I don't see this trade happening, anyway.

 

He will stay in Boston and I wish he can put at least something around .270/.380/.800 and MOSTLY stay HEALTHY .

[jacksonianmarch]

e1, you're including 2009 for convenience. He has been on the shelf at seasons end now 2 yrs in a row. Tex and Youk had down productive yrs in 2011, but Tex is on the field with regularity and you cannot say the same for Youk. Also, Tex is a full yr younger and has the better body type. Youk, when healthy, is a great run producer. But at 33, coming off 2 injured yrs in a row and now playing a more rigorous defensive position, you cannot guarantee he stays healthy. That severely limits his value

[Palodios]

1.- just because they come from the same team' date=' makes them equal? I don't think so Pal. Correct me if I'm wrong but I have noticed that your arguments often rest on that you wouldn't bring a pitcher from other division to the AL East, [/quote']

 

I actually use the complete opposite approach. I think that eliminating players based on their divisions is silly, because then you're really stuck with the AL Central, and maybe the East if you're willing to pay a premium. In this case, these two pitchers come from the same team, are within two years apart age-wise, both cost a premium, and have a very similar average ERA over the last three years before contract. I just don't see why Lackey had so many red flags, and everyone saw it as a terrible contract before they even signed him... and you can be saying that Santana is worth a shot. The wound is just too fresh, that's what I'm saying.

[iortiz]

I actually use the complete opposite approach. I think that eliminating players based on their divisions is silly' date=' because then you're really stuck with the AL Central, and maybe the East if you're willing to pay a premium. In this case, these two pitchers come from the same team, are within two years apart age-wise, both cost a premium, and have a very similar average ERA over the last three years before contract. I just don't see why Lackey had so many red flags, and everyone saw it as a terrible contract before they even signed him... and you can be saying that Santana is worth a shot. The wound is just too fresh, that's what I'm saying.[/quote']

 

My bad, I thought you thought that way, anyway...

 

I see this:

 

1.- We need a 4th SP (+-4.0), badly. He matches.

2.- Youk is likely going down in his career, mostly because he hasn't been healthy (will come from surgery and has showed poor conditioning lately)

3.- Santana's numbers are improving. Sounds like we would sell high.

4.- Their salaries are similar, and who knows maybe there will be no prospects on the table (IMO unlikely)

5.- You only gonna commit 11 M/ 1Y, no more... and if the guy performs as you expect you would have an option in 2013.

6.- Our current budget is limited (if they do not blow up the cap), so... we could use the current budget to improve with better pieces our other priorities (BP arms, pitching depth, RH OF/DH, etc.)

 

Sure, we need to see the other side of the coin...

 

Who is gonna replace Youk ?

Do we alredy have the piece in house?, if no...

How much is he gonna cost? And who are available?

 

The scenario to me sounds at least explorable.

 

You can't win all. You have to give up something. In the end, if the balance is favorable, I'd do it. To me sounds favorable, but we have to answer the last 3 questions as well.

[Laser Show]

I'd explore the deal, but as others have said, we will be losing our RH on-base machine. We would need to replace that, and then get another RH bat or 2. I think we're better off keeping Youk unless we can package him for David Wright, which is just a pipe dream.

[SoxFanForsyth]

We have a guy here who used to pitch for the Angels. He had a 3.8' date=' a 3.7 and 3.01 ERA the three years before he came to Boston. His name is John Lackey, and we quickly learned the effect that a pitcher's park has on a guy's statistics. Its too soon iortiz. The wound is too deep.[/quote']

 

Nailed it. Absolutely nailed it.

 

I don't care about the money. I wouldn't want John Lackey for 3 years/12mm. We would be taking on Santana at 2 years/24mm. While that's not big money, it's also not exactly "cost controlled".

 

I say no deal. Not only is Santana a product of the AL West offenses and parks. Look at his numbers at hitters parks (i.e. Texas - 7.00 ERA) and against good hitting teams (NYY 5.54 ERA, Tex 5.96 ERA, Sox 4.09 ERA).

 

Youkilis is a guy who consistently is tops in the MLB in OPS. Last season was the first season in 4 years that he OPS'd less than .955.

 

According to Jacko, Youk is better suited to just drink beer because he appears to be out of shape. Well if that's the case, then I guess the Yankees couldn't ask for more than a bag of seeds for CC.

[SoxFanForsyth]

1.- just because they come from the same team' date=' makes them equal? I don't think so Pal. Correct me if I'm wrong but I have noticed that your arguments often rest on that you wouldn't bring a pitcher from other division to the AL East, but you let walk your ace in the pen and let somebody else unproved substitue him from other division? I don't get it.[/quote']

 

Ervin Santana Career ERA+ (Park adjusted ERA) - 101.

 

John Lackey Career ERA+ (Prior to coming to Sox) - 116

 

Lackey was better than Santana in terms of park adjusted ERA prior to coming to Boston. What makes you think he would somehow be better?? I don't understand the logic.

 

EDIT: Lackey's ERA+ in 2010 was 99. So, if Santana remains consistent with his 101 ERA+, that's basically the pitcher you would get in return for Youkilis. No deal.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Sure, we need to see the other side of the coin...

 

Who is gonna replace Youk ?

Do we alredy have the piece in house?, if no...

How much is he gonna cost? And who are available?

 

The scenario to me sounds at least explorable.

 

You can't win all. You have to give up something. In the end, if the balance is favorable, I'd do it. To me sounds favorable, but we have to answer the last 3 questions as well.

 

This is exactly right. Unfortunately, Middlebrooks isn't quite there yet. He needs a full year of AAA ball before he is ready to be called up. So that means we would have to 1. Sign a guy like Aramis Ramirez to a 1 year, incentive laden deal, 2. Make another trade, or 3. Make the oft-injured Jed Lowrie our everyday 3B. I'm not sure any of those sound appealing enough to justify trading Youk for Santana.

 

If we're going to sell high on someone and try to get back a solid SP in return, we need it do it with a position where we have more depth. We've got a solid OF in Kalish, and the jury is still out (to me, anyway) on Reddick. I think if we traded Ellsbury, we would have the pieces to replace him (especially Kalish). Bill James last year had Kalish as a 20/20 guy. His neck surgery wasn't as invasive as originally thought, if I remember correctly, so I think he could break camp with the big league.

 

Sell high on Ellsbury to a team that needs another OF. Giants would have been a great match but they have Melky. Maybe work out a deal (3 team if need be) that doesn't involve Ellsbury for a guy like Jurrjens.

 

I think there are better options out there.

[Gringo]

Is there a link to this trade scenario, or did you just make it up? :dunno:

[a700hitter]

Is there a link to this trade scenario' date=' or did you just make it up? :dunno:[/quote']Angels fan made it up.