2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

IMO we would have lost more with Scu's departure than the 6M.

 

Assuming that we go like this, of course. (without Scu and/or SP and over the cap...the worst scenario, IMO.)

I read something today that the Sox still might look to trim more payroll. Maybe there is another salary dump coming.

[iortiz]

We need to wait for their follow up move before we rip into them.

 

The FO may have put a limit on the amount they were willing to go over the LT. If they said "We are going to stay under $188mm this year", well then the move makes all kinds of sense.

 

Every team has a budget and has to set limits. The things is, we don't know all of these intricacies of the budgeting process. So just because they were over the LT by maybe $4mm doesn't mean they were willing to go over by $12mm. They may have been willing to go over by $6-8mm, which is why this deal would have worked out.

 

For the record, Nobody is ripping the FO, we are just emitting opinions vs probable scenarios. That's all.

 

As I said I need to see the offseason ended up in order to emit my final opinion.

[iortiz]

I read something today that the Sox still might look to trim more payroll. Maybe there is another salary dump coming.

 

Pfffff... Youk?

[SoxFanForsyth]

I read something today that the Sox still might look to trim more payroll. Maybe there is another salary dump coming.

 

It wouldn't shock me in the least if we gave away Jenks + $2mm for a bag of balls and let Alex Wilson take his spot in the bullpen.

[Palodios]

It just seems that there is much bang for the buck getting rid of Scutaro's $6 million if we are still going to go over the cap anyway. In the overall Sox operating budget' date=' it doesn't seem like a lot.[/quote']

 

I definitely hear you. I've been very vocal about my support for Scutaro despite the mancrush I've had for Jed Lowrie, and I do not like the details of the trade. I'm also starting to agree with you about Ortiz-- if Scutaro was the cost of offering him arbitration, I don't think this team should have made him an offer.

 

But if trading away Scutaro to save 8-9 million dollars is what it will take to get Oswalt/Floyd, can you or I really argue with that? This team can afford to get rid of a .750 OPS player with average defense, but it cannot afford to go into 2012 without a #4 starting pitcher.

[User Name]

It wouldn't shock me in the least if we gave away Jenks + $2mm for a bag of balls and let Alex Wilson take his spot in the bullpen.

 

Jenks is post-surgical. He's unmovable.

[a700hitter]

It wouldn't shock me in the least if we gave away Jenks + $2mm for a bag of balls and let Alex Wilson take his spot in the bullpen.

I think that we'd have to eat at least 5 of the $6 million we owe him.

[jung]

Every team has a budget and has to set limits. The things is, we don't know all of these intricacies of the budgeting process. So just because they were over the LT by maybe $4mm doesn't mean they were willing to go over by $12mm. They may have been willing to go over by $6-8mm, which is why this deal would have worked out.

 

Sorry but if the benefit to the Sox for all of this turns out to be that they go over by only $4M instead of $10M we will likely and rightly rip them to shreds. That would amount to pennywise, pound foolishness on a grand scale. However I don't think that is what will happen here.

 

I choose to believe at least at this point that they are working to stay under this year...have not given up on that as yet and have not given up on getting another arm either. As I stated earlier however, I think it is us...we are fixated on Oswalt. If the Sox were fixated on him, he would be here by now.

 

They may still get him but if they do, I believe it will be based on one of the scenarios I mentioned earlier. One other scenario might be out there. They might free up even more salary space but I don't see how they can.

[a700hitter]

I definitely hear you. I've been very vocal about my support for Scutaro despite the mancrush I've had for Jed Lowrie, and I do not like the details of the trade. I'm also starting to agree with you about Ortiz-- if Scutaro was the cost of offering him arbitration, I don't think this team should have made him an offer.

 

But if trading away Scutaro to save 8-9 million dollars is what it will take to get Oswalt/Floyd, can you or I really argue with that? This team can afford to get rid of a .750 OPS player with average defense, but it cannot afford to go into 2012 without a #4 starting pitcher.

I still want a pitcher whether we are over or under the cap, but I can't see the big motivation to salary dump your starting SS if you are still going to be over the cap.

[iortiz]

I definitely hear you. I've been very vocal about my support for Scutaro despite the mancrush I've had for Jed Lowrie, and I do not like the details of the trade. I'm also starting to agree with you about Ortiz-- if Scutaro was the cost of offering him arbitration, I don't think this team should have made him an offer.

 

But if trading away Scutaro to save 8-9 million dollars is what it will take to get Oswalt/Floyd, can you or I really argue with that? This team can afford to get rid of a .750 OPS player with average defense, but it cannot afford to go into 2012 without a #4 starting pitcher.

 

These were the signs that I saw when we just traded Scu. After reading the last posts, I'm not sure anymore, mostly after your payroll projections.

[User Name]

The problem with the payroll projections is that nobody actually knows. The could be over, they could be under, they could be at it. We don't know.

[iortiz]

The problem with the payroll projections is that nobody actually knows. The could be over' date=' they could be under, they could be at it. We don't know.[/quote']

 

Yup, we are just trying to figure out the scenarios.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Sorry but if the benefit to the Sox for all of this turns out to be that they go over by only $4M instead of $10M we will likely and rightly rip them to shreds. That would amount to pennywise, pound foolishness on a grand scale. However I don't think that is what will happen here.

 

I choose to believe at least at this point that they are working to stay under this year...have not given up on that as yet and have not given up on getting another arm either. As I stated earlier however, I think it is us...we are fixated on Oswalt. If the Sox were fixated on him, he would be here by now.

 

They may still get him but if they do, I believe it will be based on one of the scenarios I mentioned earlier. One other scenario might be out there. They might free up even more salary space but I don't see how they can.

 

I'm sorry. Do you somehow think that $6mm + a 40% penalty, resulting in an $8.4mm variance is not a huge disparity?? They have to set limits. If you want to cheer for a team that doesn't set limits, you should cheer for the Yankees.

[Palodios]

I still want a pitcher whether we are over or under the cap' date=' but I can't see the big motivation to salary dump your starting SS if you are still going to be over the cap.[/quote']

 

They have shown in the past that they don't care about paying 2-3 million a year in luxury cap payments, but they don't want to pay 10 million in cap payments. You also have to factor in the money they need to put aside for midseason trades, all multiplied by 1.42. They have a lot of money, but they're not the Yankees.

[jung]

That $8.4 has to buy you something and even the $4M that they would be over in this scenario has to buy you something. If they end up only $4M over the cap, they pay $1.8M in tax anyway. That is the point. Suggesting that they don't find their way back under setting themselves up to be back at a 0 rate by 2014 is what makes no sense unless they are really buying something worth having for that $4M or I should say $5.8M.

 

$4M does not even buy them Oswalt.

[SoxFanForsyth]

That $8.4 has to buy you something and even the $4M that they would be over in this scenario has to buy you something. If they end up only $4M over the cap, they pay $1.8M in tax anyway. That is the point. Suggesting that they don't find their way back under setting themselves up to be back at a 0 rate by 2014 is what makes no sense unless they are really buying something worth having for that $4M or I should say $5.8M.

 

$4M does not even buy them Oswalt.

 

What?!?

 

It's a $2mm difference. So it DOES buy you Oswalt. Essentially, it's getting Oswalt for $2mm instead of $8mm.

 

Or, in terms of LT, it's getting him for $2.8mm rather than $11.2mm.

 

It's actually a huge swing.

[jung]

Are you trying to make the case for going over to get Oswalt? If that was what they were gong to do, they would have him already. Apparently that is not what they have in mind.

 

Another poster commented that we should not discount the possibility of the Sox planning on a $188M player payroll budget for this year. Well OK I can buy that as a possibility. Can you see somebody standing in front of JH and making an argument that they should plan on a $182M budget this year? "Gee JH my plan is to be $4M over the tax cap on a $182M budget." I would think the first thing JH would say is either, your fired or....find a way to trim that $4M so that I am under the LT cap cause if you aren't smart enough to find me $4M on a $178M payroll I need to find somebody that is!

 

They Sox have been willing to go over by marginal amounts in past years. I have said for weeks now that I do not think they are any longer willing to do that primarily because of changes to the tax rates but for other reasons as well and that they have drawn a line in the sand this year...whether we like it or not. I do think they will continue to make value judgements one way or the other but with more concern on where they are in relation to that line.

 

Based on what they have done the past few weeks I simply see no reason to believe that they "value" Oswalt enough to go over. I do think they will get another arm. I am skeptical that it will be Oswalt.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Are you trying to make the case for going over to get Oswalt? If that was what they were gong to do' date=' they would have him already. Apparently that is not what they have in mind.[/quote']

 

I'm not quite sure how this isn't making sense to you.

 

It is almost certainly a situation where, they may be over budget, but it's not a black or white situation. It's not a situation where you either go over and spend until you have no more money, or you spend all the way up until $178mm, then stop and make no more acquisitions.

 

They are willing to go over the 178mm, but there is a limit as to how far over they are willing to go. So, if they are willing to go over by $10mm, and they were over by $4mm with Scutaro on the books, then they couldn't afford to get Oswalt. But without Scutaro, they have the flexibility to work out a deal with Oswalt. That would put them $6mm over, and they could still find a RF for $4mm.

 

Say what you want, but just like Pal said, we can find a .750 OPS, average fielding SS anywhere (including Aviles), but finding a #4 starter who can post a sub-3.60 ERA in the AL East for $8mm? That's extremely difficult to find.

[User Name]

finding a #4 starter who can post a sub-3.60 ERA in the AL East for $8mm? That's extremely difficult to find.

 

Woah there young man, this is not a certainty, even for Oswalt.

[jacksonianmarch]

Oswalt is an intriguing guy. His FB velo slipped a bit last yr, but when he was healthy, he still got it up in the 93-94 range. If he's healthy and he can hold velo, then he's a steal. But he's small framed, 34 yrs old, and coming off back issues. It's a risk that could bite you in the ass, but on a 1 yr deal, it isnt a bad idea

[jung]

I repeat, the best evidence that they are not willing to go over for Oswalt is that they don't have him. Oswalt has publicly stated that he would sign a 1 year deal for $8M. Would it not be reasonable them to suggest that if they were willing to go over the cap and sign him for $8M that they would have by now?

 

We had suggestions here...that were likely reasonable suggestions that based on having moved Scuts money we would have signed Oswalt before the weekend was over.....a reasonable supposition if in fact all of this was being done "specifically" to get Oswalt. Is Oswalt here?

 

Last reports not more than 36 hours old were that " the Sox were engaged in discussions with Oswalt but were not close".......and that combined with the fact that he is not signed is what compels me to think that the Sox are not willing to go over for Oswalt.

 

Take it one step farther. If they are not willing to go over for Oswalt, who in the FA market this year appears a strong enough pitcher to force them to make a value judgement in favor of going over?

[jacksonianmarch]

They may be trying to negotiate Oswalt down to $6 mil

[User Name]

I repeat' date=' the best evidence that they are not willing to go over for Oswalt is that they don't have him.[/quote']

 

This isn't necessarily correct. They needed a perfect storm (price coming down +clear up salary) to get him, so that is an assumption that doesn't correspond to the reality of the Red Sox.

[User Name]

They may be trying to negotiate Oswalt down to $6 mil

 

Or get him to sign a deal like Beltre's.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Woah there young man' date=' this is not a certainty, even for Oswalt.[/quote']

 

"Can" and "Will" are two very different words.

[User Name]

"Can" and "Will" are two very different words.

 

I just don't think he can is what i meant though.

[SoxFanForsyth]

They may be trying to negotiate Oswalt down to $6 mil

 

Or 7 or 7.5. Just because they don't have him signed right now is by no means an indication that they aren't getting him.

 

Patience, Jung. Patience.

[jung]

Well Oswalt has been publicly out there at $8M for a few weeks now. The point is that I think $8M puts the Sox over with no hope of getting back....I think. Ergo, they won't and have not been willing to sign him for $8M. I agree that they might be trying to push him lower than $8M and they are likely trying to push him to some number that gives them a shot at staying under. If they can't, I believe they will move on and sign somebody else.

 

One thing that does start to worry me about Oswalt is that apparently nobody else is rushing to sign him at $8M either. You mean to tell me that nobody else in either league can muster up $8M for what we all consider a bargain? Maybe he is not the bargain that he appears to be on the surface.

 

In my view they will get an another arm. As each day passes I grow more and more skeptical that it will be Oswalt's arm and everything they have done suggests to me a desire to stay under the cap if they can.

[a700hitter]

They may be trying to negotiate Oswalt down to $6 mil

... and if they miss out on him for $1 or $2 million, that would be ridiculously stupid.

[jung]

I would not be surprised if the Sox are trying to negotiate Oswalt in this way. They are trying to take just enough of the guaranteed money off the contract and turn that into incentives based money so that they can turn around and say "this is what we bought for the money over the cap". We bought this many innings, this many outs, this much limitation of runs produced. That I would believe. However based on what has happened and what appears to be happening I do not believe that they are willing to just sign him for money that drives them over the cap without getting that money into incentives.

 

If they can't I believe they will just move on to somebody else. We are the ones that went from making a 4th starter a necessity to making Oswalt a necessity. Nothing the Sox have done especially based on the the last report this weekend that had the two sides "not close" suggests that the Sox have made Oswalt a necessity or even a priority.