2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[RedSoxNC84]

I could bet that he goes to Oakland.

 

More than likely, I'm just being optimistic.

[iortiz]

More than likely' date=' I'm just being optimistic.[/quote']

 

Well, Colon is better than nothing at this point

[Bellhorn04]

Well' date=' Colon is better than nothing at this point [/quote']

 

I think/hope they're gonna sign Oswalt. If in fact they were in any kind of serious negotiation with Kuroda, I have to think Oswalt's current price would be in their range.

[Muggah]

Thank goodness that this chapter is finally closed... about 2 years too late.

 

I admire your optimism, but I will only be convinced these two greedy, useless pieces of s*** aren't coming back when the final out is made in game 162 in Sept. I put nothing past the levels to which this ownership group is willing to pander to their sacred cows. Nothing!

[SoxSport]

"Can't imagine it" for both sounds like closure, for sure. That's the message to them.

[SoxSport]

Well' date=' Colon is better than nothing at this point [/quote']

 

Nope. The stem cell implants must last only one year, or the Yankees would have re-signed him.

[ORS]

At what cost? They had a deal done for Harden in return for Lars A (who has absolutely no future with the Red Sox and almost no trade value). The Sox pulled the plug. Stupid move' date=' especially in light of the fact that they knew Bedard had a knee injury and a history of being brittle. Giving up Lars A was essentially no cost. It would not have compromised the future or gutted our farm. Harden would have been a nice insurance policy, and if he had won 1 or 2 games, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Theo didn't make the move. His bad, and that is why injuries were not an excuse for 2011. iortiz is 100% right. Injuries come with the territory. It's not a platitude. The top of the food chain (the owners) didn't say "aw shucks that's too bad. We had some bad breaks." They fired everyone's ass. Everyone's. There is your proof that it was not an excuse.[/quote']

As mentioned before, your recap is wrong. Furthermore, at the time of the Bedard acquistion, wasn't it being reported that Buchholz was going to pitch again before the postseason? I believe that was the prognosis. It wasn't known that they needed to find a replacement for Buchholz until August.

 

Anyway, giving you a free pass for your revisionist history, what the f*** would Harden have added? He was s*** the last two years. Bedard, while just as fragile, was very good when he took the field. Harden sucked.

 

And, they didn't fire everyone. One walked, remember? The other got fired for losing the clubhouse, not missing the playoffs, which were just a symptom of the larger problem. Do you think Francona loses his job if nothing came out about the clubhouse being in disarray? I don't. Injuries didn't cost anyone a job after 2010, why would they have in 2011? Suggesting the upper management aggrees with the "no excuses" cliche being thrown about here is funny.

 

Injuries are a loser's lament. People remember who won and who lost. No one cares that Jim Rice was injured for the 1975 post season. The Reds of the 1970's will always be remembered as the Big Red Machine and 2 time champions.

 

You are right that sometimes a team can't plan to deal with injuries, but last season was not one of those seasons. They could have made moves that would have been costly like Fister (great move by the Tigers) or a cheap move like Harden. They had another zero cost move available--Millwood. They let him go and he did pretty decent for Colorado. They did neither the cheap moves or the expensive moves. That's why the injuries are not an excuse for 2011. They had options. You have no argument. None.

Read my posts again. I'm not excusing anything via injury, no "loser's lament" from me. I'm saying they can't be thrown out of the discussion with a cliche, which is what iortiz keeps trying to do. They are worthy of mention.

[FredLynn]

It's starting to occur to me that the FO (including Benny Boy) wants Bobby V to play the bad cop. The statements we have heard and the ones today about Tek and Wakefield are probably more a result of a bigger strategy rather than Bobby V just being a loose cannon. I guess this type of strategy can work, but it is not ideal for player-manager relations. If it is going to work, he will have to have the complete unequivocal support of the FO. I don't know if he can put a lot of faith in that. LL is a duplicitous SOB.

 

Edit: I didn't like reading the quote below from Valentine today, because it is probably true. One thing Benny boy hasn't done this season is mislead anyone. He has done what he has said he would do. Bobby V is in the know, and this is probably Benny boys plan.

 

I think that strategy will work just fine. Thats what Valentine was hired for: to be a boss, not a friend. Francona was a friend and see where it got him last year? Kudos to Bobby V to announce where he stands with regard to Wakefield and Varitek, our two has-been loser MEFIRSTS.

[FredLynn]

When you say this, is because you do run a baseball team, right? Or what is your point? or you are just trying to cover your pointless comment with another sarcastic post?

 

If yes, I'm not interested in play that game.

 

Its best to avoid him, Ortiz, when he posts like that. A few of his posts are worth considering and responding to, but none of the sarcastic personal ones. I just put him on manual ignore when he cannot behave himself.

[a700hitter]

Speaking of ******** iortiz get a load of this. In 2010 Epstein said that was going to be a bridge year to 2011 when all should turn out blue skies and green lights. Well the bunch of us have already gone through those bridge years in 2006 and 2010 and I for one are up to my eyeballs in that crap. We've had four y ears of nothing in a row and another one is just too tough and hateful to contemplate. Prune Face Henry is a billionaire; he has he means to put out the money to upgrade the team and if he isn't he should pack up and get the hell out. His sole motivation should be to win. If it is just profits and money in the till he ought to go into gold' date=' municipal bonds, oil or the drug trade. What a putz our front office is turning out to be.[/quote']

I remember the bridge year ******** that so many people swallowed hook line and sinker. At the time, I questioned what it was a bridge to, because i didn't see any promising farmhands ready to play key roles in 2011. They went out and mad a big splash getting AGon and Crawford, and things looked promising, but right at the end, Thy didn't lay the last few sections of road and the team wnt into the water.

[example1]

I remember the bridge year ******** that so many people swallowed hook line and sinker. At the time' date=' I questioned what it was a bridge to, because i didn't see any promising farmhands ready to play key roles in 2011. They went out and mad a big splash getting AGon and Crawford, and things looked promising, but right at the end, Thy didn't lay the last few sections of road and the team wnt into the water.[/quote']

 

I would argue that the road was laid, they just didn't perform.

 

People are acting like the failure to get, say, Rich Harden was the reason they didn't make the playoffs... Harden had a 4.75 ERA and a 1.001 OPS against in 4 Sept/Oct starts.

 

If Papelbon had held down two of those blown saves at the end the team would have been in the playoffs. If Beckett or Lester had pitched decently enough to beat the Orioles they would have been in the playoffs. Hell, if Ellsbury makes that catch in CF they probably make the playoffs. The road was laid just fine. No excuses.

 

In retrospect it is easy to question how the road was laid--especially if one takes great joy in criticizing a certain member of the FO--but it comes down to performance from players who are clearly the ones we wanted out there: Papelbon, Beckett, Lester, Bard. Even Lackey pitched a gem in NY that could have saved the season.

[User Name]

Its best to avoid him' date=' Ortiz, when he posts like that. A few of his posts are worth considering and responding to, but none of the sarcastic personal ones. I just put him on manual ignore when he cannot behave himself.[/quote']

 

Is this opinion or fact?

[iortiz]

As mentioned before, your recap is wrong. Furthermore, at the time of the Bedard acquistion, wasn't it being reported that Buchholz was going to pitch again before the postseason? I believe that was the prognosis. It wasn't known that they needed to find a replacement for Buchholz until August.

 

Anyway, giving you a free pass for your revisionist history, what the f*** would Harden have added? He was s*** the last two years. Bedard, while just as fragile, was very good when he took the field. Harden sucked.

 

And, they didn't fire everyone. One walked, remember? The other got fired for losing the clubhouse, not missing the playoffs, which were just a symptom of the larger problem. Do you think Francona loses his job if nothing came out about the clubhouse being in disarray? I don't. Injuries didn't cost anyone a job after 2010, why would they have in 2011? Suggesting the upper management aggrees with the "no excuses" cliche being thrown about here is funny.

 

 

Read my posts again. I'm not excusing anything via injury, no "loser's lament" from me. I'm saying they can't be thrown out of the discussion with a cliche, which is what iortiz keeps trying to do. They are worthy of mention.

 

Sorry, his recap is not wrong but the opposite.

 

1. Bucholz's chances to pitch again in 2011 were almost reduced to 0. Whether true or not, you execute a plan B. You do not wait. They made the Bedard move in the edge of the trade deadline.

 

2. As I said, You had injuries concerns and they brought another fragile piece, who BTW at that time he was recovering from another injury. Sorry It doesn't make sense at all.

 

3.- Theo's administration in the last 3-4 years was horrible, reason why a lot people walked. The injury thing, the club house disarrey, the lack of leadership and profesionalism, the terrible FA signings, farm development, etc. were only some of the several things that he didn't managed properly and some of causes of the entire "cause" of the entire 2011 "effect".

 

4. Yes, the injury thing is not an excuse or justification.

 

5 You say "I'm not excusing anything via injury, no "loser's lament" from me"

What is your point , then? As I said, if you do not excuse them and I definitely do not excuse them from the injury thing, what the hell are we arguing?

 

6. You sound like you heated. I'm not sure why. If I disrespected you in some way, please accept my apologies. I only tried to debate and share my point. On the other hand, I have not found any solid argument to change my position, thus far. So... My opinion stands.

[User Name]

When you say this, is because you do run a baseball team, right? Or what is your point? or you are just trying to cover your pointless comment with another sarcastic post?

 

If yes, I'm not interested in play that game.

 

What i'm trying to say is, there's an awful lot of conjecture, guessing and rationalization about a subject you really don't know anything about. Neither do the rest of us, because no one here has run a baseball team. So don't talk like you have.

[SoxFanForsyth]

So what you're trying to tell me is that' date=' using your "worst case scenario" projections i'm supposed to believe Kuroda + Pineda aren't going to give the Yankees better production than Bartolo + Burnett? Ok.[/quote']

 

Yeah that's it. :blink:

 

My "worst case scenario" has two pitchers throwing consistent with career norms. I'll take that worst case scenario any day of the week.

 

:blink:

[User Name]

Yeah that's it. :blink:

 

My "worst case scenario" has two pitchers throwing consistent with career norms. I'll take that worst case scenario any day of the week.

 

:blink:

 

For his "career" Pineda has a 3.74 ERA, and Kuroda has a 3.45 ERA. If they pitch on a consistent basis to their career norms, they're a massive upgrade over Bartolo/Burnett.

 

Of course, this is the best-case scenario, and the truth lies somewhere in between. The point is, though, those two will be a significant upgrade over the other two. That cannot be rationalized.

[iortiz]

I remember the bridge year ******** that so many people swallowed hook line and sinker. At the time' date=' I questioned what it was a bridge to, because i didn't see any promising farmhands ready to play key roles in 2011. They went out and mad a big splash getting AGon and Crawford, and things looked promising, but right at the end, Thy didn't lay the last few sections of road and the team wnt into the water.[/quote']

 

I wonder, Is this a brigde year again?

 

It shouldn't, we are a couple of moves away in order to put a competitive team, and mostly if we're already over the cap.

[SoxFanForsyth]

how so? you don't think you can get by with Bard in your rotation? I mean if you start the season with mcdonald and sweeney in RF... damn dude.

 

Yeah. How could they ever replace the incredible production that we had in RF last year, you know, the year that we had the best offense in baseball?

 

Oh, wait. Last year our RF hit .233/.299/.353.

 

And lets be real here. Crawford is not going to have another .255/.694 OPS season next year. He'll almost certainly return to a .295-.305 hitter with an OPS around .800-.850.

[SoxFanForsyth]

For his "career" Pineda has a 3.74 ERA, and Kuroda has a 3.45 ERA. If they pitch on a consistent basis to their career norms, they're a massive upgrade over Bartolo/Burnett.

 

Of course, this is the best-case scenario, and the truth lies somewhere in between. The point is, though, those two will be a significant upgrade over the other two. That cannot be rationalized.

 

Yup. ERA is a perfect representation.

 

Well, I mean, if you want to completely disregard park factors, NL vs AL, and lineups.

 

And then if you want to assume that Garcia is going to replicate his career year.

 

What's more likely - Garcia and Kuroda replicate career years and combine for a 243 ERA+, or that they replicate career norms and combine for a 220 ERA+?

 

If Pineda replicates his 2011 numbers and posts around a 105 ERA+, and Kuroda throws to career norms and has about a 115 ERA+, and Garcia throws to his career norm of about a 109 ERA+, 2012 will essentially be a wash with 2011.

[User Name]

Yup. ERA is a perfect representation.

 

Well, I mean, if you want to completely disregard park factors, NL vs AL, and lineups.

 

And then if you want to assume that Garcia is going to replicate his career year.

 

What's more likely - Garcia and Kuroda replicate career years and combine for a 243 ERA+, or that they replicate career norms and combine for a 220 ERA+?

 

If Pineda replicates his 2011 numbers and posts around a 105 ERA+, and Kuroda throws to career norms and has about a 115 ERA+, and Garcia throws to his career norm of about a 109 ERA+, 2012 will essentially be a wash with 2011.

 

Also, the possibility does not exist for Pineda (who is young) to actually improve by inducing more groundballs in NYS, Nova to enjoy a better season, Garcia to replicate 2011 and Kuroda to pitch to his career norms?

 

I see. No way, it's essentially a wash in a best-case scenario.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Having said that - Pineda is a massive improvement for the future of the organization and is a great acquisition. I just don't think the Yankees are going to see immediate dividends from the trade.

 

2012 should be a wash with 2011, but after that, Pineda should begin to progress a little more and learn the game, and ultimately make a big contribution.

[iortiz]

What i'm trying to say is' date=' there's an awful lot of conjecture, guessing and rationalization about a subject you really don't know anything about. Neither do the rest of us, because no one here has run a baseball team. So don't talk like you have.[/quote']

 

I'm just trying to put the things in perspective. Maybe my perspective bothered you. I still believe that my perspective is a solid one unless you show me the opposite. Look at your recent posts. You are trying to play a sarcastic role. I'm not sure what is your objective doing that. As I said, you have good ideas but unfourtunatly sometimes your behavior is not good. I encourage you to debate instead of playing this sarcastic/insulting role.

 

BTW. Seems like this thing "opinion" vs "facts" bothers you. You should realize for once and for all that this is a board. You should realize that everyone here emit opinions. Some based on facts. But in the end it is all about opinion and perspective.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Also, the possibility does not exist for Pineda (who is young) to actually improve by inducing more groundballs in NYS, Nova to enjoy a better season, Garcia to replicate 2011 and Kuroda to pitch to his career norms?

 

I see. No way, it's essentially a wash in a best-case scenario.

 

Not a "wash at best case scenario".

 

It's likely going to be a wash. I'm not sure you understand what "best case" and "worst case" scenarios are.

 

Best case, Pineda comes in and matures and is instantly effective, Kuroda throws consistent with 2011 and the new park and new lineups have no impact on him, and Garcia continues to have a near-80% strand rate and a 22% LD rate but keeps his ERA around 3.60.

 

Worst case, Pineda gets hammered by the smaller park (at the end of last year, his HR/9 skyrocketed, and he was playing in Safeco), Kuroda gets killed by the new, patient AL teams and the bandboxes that are in the AL East, and Garcia regresses to his FIP.

[a700hitter]

As mentioned before, your recap is wrong. Furthermore, at the time of the Bedard acquistion, wasn't it being reported that Buchholz was going to pitch again before the postseason? I believe that was the prognosis. It wasn't known that they needed to find a replacement for Buchholz until August.

 

Anyway, giving you a free pass for your revisionist history, what the f*** would Harden have added? He was s*** the last two years. Bedard, while just as fragile, was very good when he took the field. Harden sucked.

 

And, they didn't fire everyone. One walked, remember? The other got fired for losing the clubhouse, not missing the playoffs, which were just a symptom of the larger problem. Do you think Francona loses his job if nothing came out about the clubhouse being in disarray? I don't. Injuries didn't cost anyone a job after 2010, why would they have in 2011? Suggesting the upper management aggrees with the "no excuses" cliche being thrown about here is funny.

 

 

Read my posts again. I'm not excusing anything via injury, no "loser's lament" from me. I'm saying they can't be thrown out of the discussion with a cliche, which is what iortiz keeps trying to do. They are worthy of mention.

There was nothing revisionist in my post. There are huge errors in your post above. At the time of the trading deadline, it was being reported that Buchholz condition was not improving and rather that it was worsening. As of July 28th, they were scheduling him to meet another back specialist and there was genuine concern that he would not return in 2011. It was being acknowledged in the press that Buchholz's injury might change the Sox approach to the trading deadline. It was reported in the press on August 1st that he had a stress fracture and was unlikely to come back. Here are links to articles that I found at that time. I am sure there are many more.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/782809-mlb-trade-rumors-clay-buchholz-injury-worsening-red-sox-forced-to-trade

 

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/7/28/2300619/clay-buchholz-injury-red-sox-back

 

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/dailypitch/post/2011/08/boston-red-sox-clay-buchholz-back-injury/1

 

I acknowledged in my post that sometimes injuries cannot be prepared for or dealt with after the fact. However, 2011 was not that situation for the Sox. They had several options available to address the situation-- some very low cost and others at a high cost (like Fister-- who is a great pickup for the Tigers). The Sox opted for one fragile pitcher who was on the DL with a bad knee. They blew it. I never said that injuries aren't part of the discussion of what happened. Of course they are part of the reason for the collapse. There is no doubt about that. No one is disputing that. However, it is not an excuse for the FO in 2011 who didn't deal with the situation that was clearly becoming a crisis by the trading deadline. They knew Buchholz was not recovering. He had not even thrown off a mound by the trading deadline. They knew he had a fractured back before the deadline. Dice K had already undergone TJ surgery and it was suspected that Lackey was injured. There was a crisis staring them in the face and they responded with Bedard to bolster a $170 million payroll that was clearly in need of 3 starters. That was a huge misstep, and many of us non-professionals could see it at the time.

 

What would Harden have brought? He only needed to bring 1 or 2 wins more wins than either Weiland or Wakefield or Miller. That was it. He didn't have to bring a lot. It's acknowledged that he has good major league stuff. He was going to be better than the guys we were rolling out there 3 of every 5 games.

 

They didn't all get fired? One walked? Tito wouldn't have gotten fired if chicken-gate didn't go public? :lol: You really have nothing.

 

Finally, going forward, the FO Office apologists should be on notice that injuries will not be an excuse in 2012, unless as I said previously, their plane crashes. We have a rotation of 3 reliable Major League pitchers. To say that our pitching staff lacks depth at this point going into 2012 would be a huge understatement. The situation is clear to everyone. If they do nothing to address it and they suffer an injury to the big 3, while it will be a reason for another bad season, it will not excuse the FO negligence.

[jung]

If Pineda replicates his 2011 numbers and posts around a 105 ERA+, and Kuroda throws to career norms and has about a 115 ERA+, and Garcia throws to his career norm of about a 109 ERA+, 2012 will essentially be a wash with 2011.

 

2011....the 2011 where the damn Yankees won the division again...you mean that 2011? I actually think the difference is that the Yankee rotation of 2011 performed for the most part better than expected. Healthy they could have pitched like we pitched and nobody would have been surprised. I don't think the Yanks expected two miracle years in a row from those guys. It was really CC and pray for rain. Unexpectedly they did better than that.

 

As I implied when those Yankee moves were announced it does not turn them into a slam dunk monster rotation but I am very sure that Cashman will be sleeping much better this year than he was last.

[a700hitter]

I wonder, Is this a brigde year again?

 

It shouldn't, we are a couple of moves away in order to put a competitive team, and mostly if we're already over the cap.

It looks more like a detour year. The bridge apparently collapsed.

[User Name]

Not a "wash at best case scenario".

 

It's likely going to be a wash. I'm not sure you understand what "best case" and "worst case" scenarios are.

 

Best case, Pineda comes in and matures and is instantly effective, Kuroda throws consistent with 2011 and the new park and new lineups have no impact on him, and Garcia continues to have a near-80% strand rate and a 22% LD rate but keeps his ERA around 3.60.

 

Worst case, Pineda gets hammered by the smaller park (at the end of last year, his HR/9 skyrocketed, and he was playing in Safeco), Kuroda gets killed by the new, patient AL teams and the bandboxes that are in the AL East, and Garcia regresses to his FIP.

 

That wasn't your earlier tone, boss.

 

You weren't acknowledging the possibility of your "best case" scenario".

 

And face it, it can happen. Most likely, Kuroda and Pineda end up being an improvement over Colon and Burnett, not only by ERA+, but by IP and every possible measure.

 

In fact, i'd be willing to partake of a little signature wager over it.

[a700hitter]

I would argue that the road was laid, they just didn't perform.

 

People are acting like the failure to get, say, Rich Harden was the reason they didn't make the playoffs... Harden had a 4.75 ERA and a 1.001 OPS against in 4 Sept/Oct starts.

 

If Papelbon had held down two of those blown saves at the end the team would have been in the playoffs. If Beckett or Lester had pitched decently enough to beat the Orioles they would have been in the playoffs. Hell, if Ellsbury makes that catch in CF they probably make the playoffs. The road was laid just fine. No excuses.

 

In retrospect it is easy to question how the road was laid--especially if one takes great joy in criticizing a certain member of the FO--but it comes down to performance from players who are clearly the ones we wanted out there: Papelbon, Beckett, Lester, Bard. Even Lackey pitched a gem in NY that could have saved the season.

Of course the players lost it on the field. That is where things get decided. Howver, we were only running two capable pitcher to the mound (Beckett and Lester) for the last 2 plus months of the season. The missing pieces of road were clear to everyone.

[SoxFanForsyth]

That wasn't your earlier tone, boss.

 

You weren't acknowledging the possibility of your "best case" scenario".

 

And face it, it can happen. Most likely, Kuroda and Pineda end up being an improvement over Colon and Burnett, not only by ERA+, but by IP and every possible measure.

 

In fact, i'd be willing to partake of a little signature wager over it.

 

You're not getting what I'm saying, though.

 

If you compare, straight up, Kuroda's 2012 season vs Burnett's 2011 season, I think it will be an improvement. But, I think that Garcia will regress significantly in 2012 and offset that improvement. And I also think that Pineda will struggle to pitch better than Colon's 2011 numbers.

 

So, as a rotation, I think their numbers will be consistent with last year. At most, about a 5% decrease in ERA.

 

So, they had a team 4.03 ERA from their SP. I'd put a wager that the Yankees team SP ERA will not be lower than a 3.85 ERA in 2012.

[a700hitter]

2011....the 2011 where the damn Yankees won the division again...you mean that 2011? I actually think the difference is that the Yankee rotation of 2011 performed for the most part better than expected. Healthy they could have pitched like we pitched and nobody would have been surprised. I don't think the Yanks expected two miracle years in a row from those guys. It was really CC and pray for rain. Unexpectedly they did better than that.

 

As I implied when those Yankee moves were announced it does not turn them into a slam dunk monster rotation but I am very sure that Cashman will be sleeping much better this year than he was last.

The Yankee rotation will be much stronger in 2012 than it was in 2011. They have an ace that always contends for CY Young, and they are 7 deep at the major league level.