2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[FredLynn]

I looked at reality and pulled it from there. Some players on some teams are just irreplaceable. You guys like to pretend the world of players is infinitely deep and that budgets don't exist. Injuries aren't an excuse' date=' they are a cause. In every sport if enough good players are lost from a team they won't win. If the pats lose Brady they aren't a SB caliber team compared to teams who don't lose their best players. If Beckett and Buchholz and Pedroia and Ellsbury all go down then I won't be as optistic. Neither will the Vegas odds makers.[/quote']

 

Beckett and Buchholtz and Pedroia and Ellsbury didn't all go down. Only Buchholtz was lost for half a season. There was an opportunity for the team to pick up a quality SP before the trade deadline, and after, and they didn't do it.

Injuries are ALWAYS an excuse. There are 24 other guys on the team who need to pick it up if a guy gets hurt. You show me a single team that had no injuries and I will agree that injuries are "a reason".

[Palodios]

Beckett and Buchholtz and Pedroia and Ellsbury didn't all go down. Only Buchholtz was lost for half a season.

 

This team's #3, #4 #5, and #6 starting pitchers on their depth chart were injured. When Bedard was obtained in order to replace one of them, he got injured as well. You don't replace that level of production.

[jung]

If they were going to get Oswalt they would have pulled the trigger by now. As I posted earlier they would have known they were out of the running on Kuroda long before we did and Oswalt at $8M for one year has been sitting there for a couple of days now. Some will like this, some will not. It is what it is.

 

Still a chance they trade salary to get salary and get a pitcher but I don't think they are interested in a FA pitcher at this point.

 

More concerned with mistakes that send them backwards. Not convinced that BC is even responsible for the Ortiz arbitration offer frankly. I think the Sox have created a real quagmire of cross functional responsibility over there but I think the only people they have completely confused is themselves. I could care less what we know about their organizational structure. Whatever it is it does not seem to be working.

 

Don't want to spend the money this year...fine I can live with that. Stop f***ing up and stop f***ing around.

[FredLynn]

This team's #3' date=' #4 #5, and #6 starting pitchers on their depth chart were injured. When Bedard was obtained in order to replace one of them, he got injured as well. You don't replace that level of production.[/quote']

 

Are you saying that one of those guys was Lackey?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Are you saying that one of those guys was Lackey?

 

I think it's pretty clear that Lackey was hurt the majority of the season.

 

Say what you want, but players don't go from a 4.40 ERA to a 6.41 ERA over 1 season and have TJ surgery at the end of the season which ultimately tacks on 1 season at league minimum without being hurt.

 

If Lackey threw to a 4.40 ERA rather than a 6.41 ERA last year, the Sox don't miss the PS.

[jung]

Are you saying that one of those guys was Lackey?

 

I guess Lackey must be in that tally. TJ can be used in response to specific trauma and it can be used to repair damage that is more wear related. Seems to me Lackey has been headed toward TJ with last year the end of the line for him without TJ. I don't remember that the announcement when made suggested a specific injury that he suffered last year. So I think the basis for his TJ is more in the wear variety than the specific trauma variety. There are a couple of folks on this board that know way more about TJ than I do so if I am wrong I am sure they will chime in.

[FredLynn]

I think it's pretty clear that Lackey was hurt the majority of the season.

 

Say what you want, but players don't go from a 4.40 ERA to a 6.41 ERA over 1 season and have TJ surgery at the end of the season which ultimately tacks on 1 season at league minimum without being hurt.

 

If Lackey threw to a 4.40 ERA rather than a 6.41 ERA last year, the Sox don't miss the PS.

 

The fact of the matter is that Lackey was THE WORST SP in baseball, so anyone we replaced him with would have been an improvement. Saying that he was hurt, while true, is an excuse. He sucked, and we replaced him with someone better than he performed.

We are not going to get through 2012 with no time missed by Beckett/Lester/CB, almost certainly. Using whatever ails them as an excuse for why we failed is BS. If our #4 and 5 were solid, and if Epstein had provided for our minor league with good prospects, like the Rays, we would withstand such injuries much better.

I don't think that if you ask the players or manager about injuries they would say its a "reason" the team failed.

[Muggah]

We've discussed this pattern many times on here, and it scares me as well. But some have mentioned that part of that may be more about arrogance, pride, and preparation. Look at how things have gone for him...

He has a good season in 2003, is coming off a World Series high and declines a bit in 2004. He has a good year with Florida in 2005, is traded to Boston, and-- like most players-- takes a year to adjust to his new team.

He has a good year with Boston in 2007, declines a bit in 2008 after another World Series high.

In 2009, he has a good year, and falls of the cliff at the end of the year, and it drags into 2010, where he is injured.

In 2011, everyone is saying he is done, so he's motivated to have possibly the best year of his career.

 

Personally, I think he's a lazy sack of s*** that takes every other year off. I have disliked him as a player since 2009, but when he is working hard, and he is on, there are very few better pitchers. There is so much pressure on him after he fell apart in 2011 that I believe that he's going to be motivated to succeed in 2012.

 

I agree with you 100% that he's been a lazy sack of s*** at times in the past, but I disagree that what happened last year will motivate him to step it up this year. Fatboy is a punk, an arrogant punk of the highest caliber. I fully believe he'll dig in his heels and just tell everyone to "f*** off" before he'll try and endear himself to the fans by stepping up his game and having a banner year.

[jung]

V came away from his visit to Beckett's place positively ecstatic. I suspect that was because Beckett did not slam the front door in his face.

[User Name]

Holy s***, the whining has reached the heavens. Calm down people.

[User Name]

Please explain how, for the 2012 season, Pineda is an upgrade over the 2011 Colon.

 

Colon: 3.38 K/BB, 111 ERA+, 1.290 WHIP. All while playing in the AL East.

Pineda: 3.15 K/BB, 103 ERA+, 1.10 WHIP. All while playing at Safeco.

 

Pineda's WHIP is going to increase when he plays in a bandbox in every home and away game.

 

He's not an improvement in 2012.

 

So what you're trying to tell me is that, using your "worst case scenario" projections i'm supposed to believe Kuroda + Pineda aren't going to give the Yankees better production than Bartolo + Burnett? Ok.

[Palodios]

Are you saying that one of those guys was Lackey?

 

Peter Gammons reported that Lackey might need Tommy John surgery in June of 2011. He continued to pitch for four more months.

[User Name]

Peter Gammons reported that Lackey might need Tommy John surgery in June of 2011. He continued to pitch for four more months.

 

Please, don't try to use something logical like "We lost two-thirds of our starting rotation, part of our depth and had every possible that could go wrong, go wrong".

 

"That's just a ******** excuse".

[FredLynn]

Peter Gammons reported that Lackey might need Tommy John surgery in June of 2011. He continued to pitch for four more months.

 

Guess they should have replaced him then. And keep in mind that any SP they replaced him with would have been an improvement. That would have been the right thing to do. I am not buying the "gee, he was injured, and thats why our pitching stunk" excuse. Not when there was a better alternative.

[jung]

Guess they should have replaced him then.

 

You guys probably remember that Theo said he waited to long and should have gotten somebody to come in and help shore up the pitching. Although I agree with him, this team's management seems to have so many different facets to it...so many different influences tugging it in different directions, who the hell knows what he could have done. Seems to me what these guys can do might be more of a factor than what they should do. Whether it is Theo or BC hardly seems to matter.

[iortiz]

Peter Gammons reported that Lackey might need Tommy John surgery in June of 2011. He continued to pitch for four more months.

 

This is what pissed me off. Gammons somehow saw this coming. Our medical and coaching staff, of course didn't, or simply didn't want to see it or committed negligence. If true, They let Lackey play and we all know the outcome. If they had detected this in June? we would have planned better before the 2011 trade deadline. Instead we brought another moribund and almost death dog (Bedard) in the last minute of the trade deadline. Thanks God the medical staff is gone

 

Yes Pumpsie... No excuses please.

[iortiz]

Red Sox Met With Ortiz's Agent

By Steve Adams [January 14 at 11:49am CST]

David Ortiz accepted Boston's arbitration offer last month, and yesterday GM Ben Cherington met with Fern Cuza, Ortiz's agent, to discuss Ortiz's 2012 salary, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal.

 

The deadline for each side to submit arbitration figures is on Tuesday, and MacPherson writes that it's "unlikely" the two sides reach an agreement prior to that point. Big Papi earned $12.5MM last season and should see a raise; MacPherson notes that his production trailed only that of high profile names like Jose Bautista, Miguel Cabrera, and Adrian Gonzalez (only those three posted a higher OPS).

 

Ortiz was one of three Type A free agents to accept arbitration last month, with the others being Kelly Johnson and Francisco Rodriguez. When Tim Dierkes polled an MLB team executive, a former agency employee, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, estimates for Ortiz's 2012 salary ranged from $13-15MM. The two sides can continue to negotiate a salary up until the moment before an arbitration hearing begins.

[a700hitter]

For whatever reason' date=' the Yankees have been struggling to land good pitchers without going the CC hundreds of millions of $$ route. [b'] This fills a hole but fortunately it cost them a fair amount to do.[/b]

This may make you feel better about things, but I don't feel better about it. The Yankees like the Sox needed pitching. A lot of people here are willing to trade Youk -- an All Star cleanup hitter-- to get a pitcher. The Yankees filled their hole by trading a prospect-- a very good hitting prospect-- but still a prospect-- and he's a DH prospect. I don't feel good about this.

[SoxSport]

For once I agree with you. The Yankees did just vastly improve their SP' date=' most likely (ie as long as Pineda is as good as advertised). Moreover, this is not Cherington's fault. If the owners have not given him the go-ahead to spend money, then he has no money to spend. What do you guys think he ought to do? Dip into his personal savings to write Oswalt a check? If anyone is to "blame", its our billionaire owners. And frankly, I am not sure I would even blame them. This is a year to step back, rebuild our resources, and exercise financial restraint. We sacrifice this year so that we can compete over the next several years. The only competing we will be doing this year is for third place.[/quote']

 

They made their bed last year (and this year as well, with Ortiz), and now they either have to lie in it, spend some more money, or trade some of their coveted prospects. With a $170 M team, it's too risky to hope that lightening will strike from a minor league contract in ST.

They went out last year and signed two $20M players whom they didn't need. Now, they don't have enough $$ to spend on what they need--which is always pitching.

 

Maybe the moral of the story is --stick to your needs with your resources.

[a700hitter]

I'm not a fortune teller. It's hard enough getting a confidence level about what Beckett will do in any given year, and he's one of the non-question marks. Forget about reading the tea leaves for twelve different pitchers. Pitcher performance is one of the most variable things in sports. There are legitimate concerns for why they might be worse. There are also compelling arguments for why they might be better. There are some who think that they will be worse (or at least unchanged) and it's not a matter for debate. I disagree.

 

When it comes to what will happen in any given year, baseball has taught me to expect nothing and just enjoy the ride.

 

All that said, gun to my head, I think the answer lies somewhere in between markedly better and about the same.

This is a reasonable position. Change a few of your reasonable assumptions as to why they might be improved and make an opposite but still reasonable assumption and the analysis ends up somewhere between "about the same" and markedly worse, which is where I believe that Pumpsie and others are on this issue, but they get ridiculed for it. I'm not quite sure why, because their analysis leaves them somewhere in the middle of the spectrum, which is where you are. Don't get me wrong. I am not saying that you are the one heaping ridicule. I am not saying that at all. You are the only person who took the time to try to make the case that the 2012 pitching will be improved and you came out in the middle somewhere leaning toward improvement. When all the blather is boiled away, this staff is about the same as last years. If injuries and unexpected performance occurs it will be markedly worse. If we have good health and some break out performances, it will be markedly better. There's a lot of common ground in the opinion in this thread, but people are too busy bickering.

[User Name]

Hindsight is 20/20.

[Palodios]

This is what pissed me off. Gammons somehow saw this coming. Our medical and coaching staff' date=' of course didn't, or simply didn't want to see it or committed negligence. If true, They let Lackey play and we all know the outcome. If they had detected this in June? we would have planned better before the 2011 trade deadline. Instead we brought another moribund and almost death dog (Bedard) in the last minute of the trade deadline. Thanks God the medical staff is gone [/quote']

 

What other solution did they have? Their farm system was spent, and the midseason trade market was bleak. Dumping Lackey meant Duckworth would have gotten time as the #5 pitcher, which really isn't much of an improvement.

[User Name]

This is a reasonable position. Change a few of your reasonable assumptions as to why they might be improved and make an opposite but still reasonable assumption and the analysis ends up somewhere between "about the same" and markedly worse' date=' which is where I believe that Pumpsie and others are on this issue, but they get ridiculed for it. I'm not quite sure why, because their analysis leaves them somewhere in the middle of the spectrum, which is where you are. Don't get me wrong. I am not saying that you are the one heaping ridicule. I am not saying that at all. You are the only person who took the time to try to make the case that the 2012 pitching will be improved and you came out in the middle somewhere leaning toward improvement. When all the blather is boiled away, this staff is about the same as last years. If injuries and unexpected performance occurs it will be markedly worse. If we have good health and some break out performances, it will be markedly better. There's a lot of common ground in the opinion in this thread, but people are too busy bickering.[/quote']

 

Delicious irony.

[SoxSport]

This is what pissed me off. Gammons somehow saw this coming. Our medical and coaching staff, of course didn't, or simply didn't want to see it or committed negligence. If true, They let Lackey play and we all know the outcome. If they had detected this in June? we would have planned better before the 2011 trade deadline. Instead we brought another moribund and almost death dog (Bedard) in the last minute of the trade deadline. Thanks God the medical staff is gone

 

Yes Pumpsie... No excuses please.

 

Gammons is no astrologist. He has his contacts, and the Red Sox evidently knew Lackey had elbow problems. They were probably trying to stretch him through the season.

[example1]

Beckett and Buchholtz and Pedroia and Ellsbury didn't all go down. Only Buchholtz was lost for half a season. There was an opportunity for the team to pick up a quality SP before the trade deadline, and after, and they didn't do it.

Injuries are ALWAYS an excuse. There are 24 other guys on the team who need to pick it up if a guy gets hurt. You show me a single team that had no injuries and I will agree that injuries are "a reason".

 

One of us must be misunderstanding the other. I'm not saying the collapse in 2011 was due to injuries. I just hate the argument that a poor performance can never be blamed on injuries. It absolutely could... like in the scenario that I laid out with two top pitchers and two top offensive players going down. 2011 was due to other factors.

 

Similarily, if the acquisition of a player who adds 6-8 wins can account for a team going from no playoffs to playoffs, then likewise the loss of a player who adds 6-8 wins can account for not making the playoffs. I think adding a pitcher like Buchholz for a full season makes them better because his production is not easily replaced.

[a700hitter]

An emerging ace in Nova? Man' date=' do you lay it on thick when you get your rant on.[/quote']Unless his forearm issues at the end of last season portend future arm problems, this guy could be really good. He's not definitely an emerging ace, but I wouldn't bet against it. He seems unspectacular. I was at the game in April at Fenway where he bested Buchholz. I was sitting there furious as the innings passed. I thought that was our best pitching matchup that weekend and inning after inning we were swinging over this guys pitch and hitting nothing hard. I figured it was a fluke, but throughout the season I watched him a lot. It was always the same thing. How are they not hitting this guy? As the season progressed, it became "he's due for a bad game", but he was very consistent. The biggest mistake the Yanks made last season was sending him down to the minors. I was happy about that.

 

Is calling him "emerging ace" laying it on a bit thick? Maybe so, but I wasn't laying it on thick in the rest of what you termed a "rant" when I said that the Yankees rotation is 7 deep at the major league level with the Killer Bees waiting in the wings, and the Red Sox rotation is currently 3 deep. The difference in pitching depth is huge, and unless the Red Sox do something to close that gap, the odds of them beating the Yankees will be small.

[a700hitter]

What other solution did they have? Their farm system was spent' date=' and the midseason trade market was bleak. Dumping Lackey meant Duckworth would have gotten time as the #5 pitcher, which really isn't much of an improvement.[/quote']Possibly Millwood.

[Meh]

calling h"emerging ace" laying it on a bit thick? Maybe so' date=' but I wasn't laying it on thick in the rest of what you termed a "rant" when I said that the Yankees rotation is 7 deep at the major league level with the Killer Bees waiting in the wings, and the Red Sox rotation is currently 3 deep. The difference in pitching depth is huge, and unless the Red Sox do something to close that gap, the odds of them beating the Yankees will be small.[/quote']

 

 

Well let's not count AJ as a legit option. Honestly I would rather see Phelps or Warren get his starts. Adam Warren is a guy to keep your eye on, esp now that Noesi is gone he'll be the first guy to get a call from the minors to come up and pitch. Unless Phelps really impresses in ST.

[iortiz]

What other solution did they have? Their farm system was spent' date=' and the midseason trade market was bleak. Dumping Lackey meant Duckworth would have gotten time as the #5 pitcher, which really isn't much of an improvement.[/quote']

 

Right now, I don't have the June, 2011 scenario clearly, but I could bet that the improvement could have been better than Bedard. The true and the point here is that they could have planned better. Sorry Pal, Injuries are not excuses.

 

BTW You and I know that we needed this goddamn pitcher since before the 2011 trade deadline, we both said this tons of times. Today, that need haven't been addressed. Instead they used the money in signing Ortiz. Yes, this offseason hasn't ended but If we go like this, IMO this team will be unbalanced again. If we go like this, Our FO would have likely shitted the bed again. They could have used Ortiz Money in Kuroda, and put Lav as DH or something. Yes, we would have lost a big bat but IMO still our offense would have been a respectable one, maybe no the #1 but a respectable one.

 

Notice that I'm not against Ortiz but we have other priorities (SP, BP arms), mostly if we do not go over the cap.

[a700hitter]

Well let's not count AJ as a legit option. Honestly I would rather see Phelps or Warren get his starts. Adam Warren is a guy to keep your eye on' date=' esp now that Noesi is gone he'll be the first guy to get a call from the minors to come up and pitch. Unless Phelps really impresses in ST.[/quote']The Yankees would probably rather be rid of him at this point, and they may still dump him. As a depth option, he's not bad. Mid-season in a double header in 2011 when I need an extra starter would I rather have handed the ball to Weiland or Burnett? It's a pretty easy choice for the manager. One guy is capable and has thrown a lot of good games in his career. The other kid will be luck to not s*** his pants on the mound.