2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[jung]

On one level you have JH and LL contradicting each other about the Crawford deal and that does bother me. While those two guys always want to spin something, lately they just can't seem to get their stories straight.

 

Unfortunately while I think JH was really only trying to talk about the nature of the transaction to some he came off as criticizing Crawford. I really don't think he was trying to isolate himself from a deal for a player that had not performed to this point. JH talked about the same things many have discussed, the fact that Crawford is yet another left handed bat on a team that had plenty of left handed bats. The argument that Ells is the same player is really something of an extension of that argument.

 

While I don't think JH should have gone down this particular road at all, if he had prefaced his comments or concluded them with something like "I believe Carl will be a great ballplayer for this team" then that would have gone a long way to mitigate concerns people have that he was publicly criticizing Carl and his comments would have been taken in the spirit that they were given. It is of course true that the Sox were overloaded with left handed bats and further to the point, Ells is a very very similar player to Carl.

 

The only argument that has ever been offered to counter the comment that the Sox were already loaded with left handed bats and had Ells was that Ells may not have recovered fully from his injuries and the oft used, "didn't want the Yanks to get Crawford". Honestly that never seemed like much of an argument to me when you bounce it off of the dollars spent on Crawford. If you were concerned about whether Ells came back fully or not then maybe you buy some protection against that but committing $142M over 7 years and then only offering that Carl provides insurance against Ells no longer being able to play as expected is pretty thin and Cashman has already been crowing about having played the Sox like a violin.

 

My real worry is that Carl was yet another player that spit out great numbers against all of these player evaluation matrices and any other consideration be damned. The player is there and has great numbers so we are taking him seems all to often to be at the heart of the argument for many of these deals.

[SoxSport]

The Crawford signing is water over a dam. Now they have to figure out how to motivate the guy and get the best out of him.

 

I don't think they did that last year. Tito never did figure out how to fit him in the lineup and utilize his skills.

[FredLynn]

The Crawford signing is water over a dam. Now they have to figure out how to motivate the guy and get the best out of him.

 

I don't think they did that last year. Tito never did figure out how to fit him in the lineup and utilize his skills.

 

From what I read Crawford was becoming increasingly shocked at the lack of professionalism by the team as the season wore on. He became increasingly withdrawn. Its tough to function in that atmosphere. I am more than willing to give him one more season. He is a talented athlete and could turn things around. But that stance.....it looks bad. Maybe he could fix that this offseason.

[jung]

Well the Sox got all balled up about his performance at the plate and at least offensively if you can't get on base you can't really use your speed.

 

I think if they can fix his plate appearances and get him to stop being such a sucker for pitches that start at the tops of his knees moving down and away from him, he might actually get ahead in a count for change. That should actually be an easier problem to fix than if he was swinging at rising fastballs.

 

I have a feeling that if they can correct his plate appearances and get him back on track there, he will be able to have more of a positive impact on the base paths his confidence will come back and his fielding will improve.

 

DM is a fine hitting coach and a very good baseball man. Sorta' surprised that nothing seemed to change through the season with Crawford. I could be wrong but I think his stance was about the same beginning to end of the season. I could not tell for sure but I thought he did move up in the batters box later in the season. I guess the stance he has must be close to what he has had but something must have changed somewhere as he could not be as successful as he was being such a sucker for the aforementioned low ball moving away. So , he must not be seeing that pitch the way he used to see it. Can't tell for sure what they did but nothing worked.

 

We have had instances in baseball where a guy's vision just starts to decline and nobody had the guts to tell him to go get his eyes checked (thems' fightin' words). Sure enough the guy eventually does go, finds his vision is failing him and gets corrected enough to get back on track again. That would be a hell of a kick in the teeth. Sure wish it could be that simple though.

 

Maybe he can take a shorter off season, get onto working with someone he has had success with before assuming somebody like that is available and come back in the spring in much better shape. Maybe the cure for Crawford is just not something DM has in his bag of tricks.

[SoxSport]

From what I read Crawford was becoming increasingly shocked at the lack of professionalism by the team as the season wore on. He became increasingly withdrawn. Its tough to function in that atmosphere. I am more than willing to give him one more season. He is a talented athlete and could turn things around. But that stance.....it looks bad. Maybe he could fix that this offseason.

 

If Crawford is right, there sure is trouble in River City.

[win red sox]

This Roster needs to be overhauled not just because of the collapse, but also due to the lack of professionalism. I would call Texas and see about trading Beckett for Ogando straight up, Becket is a bad seed and never has had back to back no 1 starter seasons. Ogando is young and could start or pitch out of the bullpen. It also appears the Rangers will not be resigning Wilson so Beckett could fit in the rotation. Next I would call San Diego and Send Lackey,Lowrie and 30 Million for Headley and Gregerson. San Diego paid 5 million this year for Garland not to pitch and plus Lackey's numbers shop improve significantly at Petco. In Lowrie the get an infielder who can play both corner and middle infield positions and has upside. The Sox get rid of Lackey,get a 3rd basemen with a 381 obp, a middle reliever with a career 3.10 era. Next I would call Cincinnati and send Youkilis and Doubrant for Volquez. It appears Cincinnati is shopping Votto, and Rolen spends more time on the DL than on the field, plus Doubrant gives them a left handed pitcher out of the pen with decent upside(he is out of options). Volquez has tremendous upside, he's almost 2 years removed from TJ surgery so his numbers this year are inflated, but he has top of the rotation stuff. Next comes the hard part, I would call Chicago and send Ellsbury and Reddick for Quentin,Danks and Sale. Chicago gets one of the best all around players in the league in his prime and young corner outfielder who has upside. Boston gets the power right handed bat they need, plus 2 pitchers with plus stuff. Sale pitched out of the bullpen this year, but recently was interviewed and stated he wants to start, he has number 1 stuff. When it comes to Ellsbury, Boston is not going to pay 2 of's 20 million a year. I would then sign Ramon Santiago as my utility infielder and Coco Crisp as my 4th outfielder. When it comes to Paps I would offer 3/36 and Papi 1/10 with an option. If either one declines, offer arb, get the draft picks and move on. There are plenty closers on the market and you could sign Cuddyer or Willingham to replace Papi.

 

Starters

1. Lester

2. Bucholz

3. Danks

4. Volquez

5. Ogando

 

Bullpen

Papelbon

Bard

Morales

Ogando

Gregerson

Aceves

Sale

 

1. Scutaro SS

2. Crawford LF

3. Pedroia 2b

4. Gonzalez 1b

5. Quentin rf

6. Papi dh

7. Headley 3b

8. Salty

9. Kalish

 

Reserves

Crisp

Santiago

Lavernawy

Mcdonald

 

Getting one starter is not going to help this team, the pitching staff needs to be overhauled with youth, not worried about the offense at all as you can see the balance of right left. Quentin would put up astronimical numbers in this lineup and this park, although his defense will probaly be substandard. You gotta think that Crawford will bounce back.

[FredLynn]

This Roster needs to be overhauled not just because of the collapse, but also due to the lack of professionalism. I would call Texas and see about trading Beckett for Ogando straight up, Becket is a bad seed and never has had back to back no 1 starter seasons. Ogando is young and could start or pitch out of the bullpen. It also appears the Rangers will not be resigning Wilson so Beckett could fit in the rotation. Next I would call San Diego and Send Lackey,Lowrie and 30 Million for Headley and Gregerson. San Diego paid 5 million this year for Garland not to pitch and plus Lackey's numbers shop improve significantly at Petco. In Lowrie the get an infielder who can play both corner and middle infield positions and has upside. The Sox get rid of Lackey,get a 3rd basemen with a 381 obp, a middle reliever with a career 3.10 era. Next I would call Cincinnati and send Youkilis and Doubrant for Volquez. It appears Cincinnati is shopping Votto, and Rolen spends more time on the DL than on the field, plus Doubrant gives them a left handed pitcher out of the pen with decent upside(he is out of options). Volquez has tremendous upside, he's almost 2 years removed from TJ surgery so his numbers this year are inflated, but he has top of the rotation stuff. Next comes the hard part, I would call Chicago and send Ellsbury and Reddick for Quentin,Danks and Sale. Chicago gets one of the best all around players in the league in his prime and young corner outfielder who has upside. Boston gets the power right handed bat they need, plus 2 pitchers with plus stuff. Sale pitched out of the bullpen this year, but recently was interviewed and stated he wants to start, he has number 1 stuff. When it comes to Ellsbury, Boston is not going to pay 2 of's 20 million a year. I would then sign Ramon Santiago as my utility infielder and Coco Crisp as my 4th outfielder. When it comes to Paps I would offer 3/36 and Papi 1/10 with an option. If either one declines, offer arb, get the draft picks and move on. There are plenty closers on the market and you could sign Cuddyer or Willingham to replace Papi.

 

Starters

1. Lester

2. Bucholz

3. Danks

4. Volquez

5. Ogando

 

Bullpen

Papelbon

Bard

Morales

Ogando

Gregerson

Aceves

Sale

 

1. Scutaro SS

2. Crawford LF

3. Pedroia 2b

4. Gonzalez 1b

5. Quentin rf

6. Papi dh

7. Headley 3b

8. Salty

9. Kalish

 

Reserves

Crisp

Santiago

Lavernawy

Mcdonald

 

Getting one starter is not going to help this team, the pitching staff needs to be overhauled with youth, not worried about the offense at all as you can see the balance of right left. Quentin would put up astronimical numbers in this lineup and this park, although his defense will probaly be substandard. You gotta think that Crawford will bounce back.

 

This will take some time to digest. Good effort on the analysis. For starters, why would the Rangers surrender Alexi Ogando, age 28 and making under $500K with a world of potential , for Josh Beckett, a troublemaker, making $17M per year through 2014? No way I make that trade if I am Nolan Ryan.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Well, I see MLB the show has now become real.

[jung]

Interesting, I have liked the idea of Volquez since one of our other esteemed members offered him on a list of potential pitchers. I thought he was the most interesting for the Sox from that list so nice pick there I think.

 

I think your analysis of the Ells/Crawford situation is interesting because isn't that the thing that just leaped off the page as soon as that deal was done. Here you have Ells coming into his lasts years under contract and what the heck are you going to do with him when you are paying Crawford $20M. I agree that with some help Crawford should come back. If Ells had flopped and Crawford had played reasonably well I guess you could make the case that Ells would not have the trade value he is going to have. I have never been sure how long Ells wants to play here. Maybe Ells is gone when he gets his chance anyway. I had put Ells on my available for trade list because his value is so high now, I am unconvinced regarding how long he really wants to play here anyway and because we have two guys in Ells and Crawford that are sort of the same player.

 

I agree about 1/10 for Ortiz and would hope 3/36 gets it done with Paps. I am anxious to get outta' the dedicated DH thing but if Youk is gone my concern for resting him leaves town with him. Based on what happened this year I do think we must plan on more to much more rest through the season for AGons. Keeping Youk allowed for more of a rotation at 1st, DH and 3rd. I think AGons needs enough rest through the season that we have to have a decent option at 1st base so that we don't lose too much production. AGons probably needs to play 1st most of the time, DH some of the time and rest some of the time.

 

Of course somebody will probably have to hypnotize somebody to take Lackey. I have argued that the "change of scenery" is the argument to make and if he stands a better chance of pitching to decent numbers in that park in SD then all the better.

 

That is a nice effort man and the result would be an interesting team worth watching. If we ever got lucky enough to get to the series in 2012 Ortiz would leave a pretty big hole in that lineup and we have the same problem again in inter-league games, another reason I am anxious to get outta' the dedicated DH thing. That looks like an "interesting to watch while trying to set up for 2013" lineup to me....certainly a lineup that can compete. I am tired of these "gonna make the ALCS by throwing their gloves out onto the field" lineups anyway.

 

The Lackey thing is iffy and generally moving around that much pitching into and out of the organization can be tough but the resulting team looks pretty good. Again nice job.

[win red sox]

This will take some time to digest. Good effort on the analysis. For starters' date=' why would the Rangers surrender Alexi Ogando, age 28 and making under $500K with a world of potential , for Josh Beckett, a troublemaker, making $17M per year through 2014? No way I make that trade if I am Nolan Ryan.[/quote']

 

With 10/5 rights I would think that the Rangers are one of few teams he would accept a trade to, I also think that Nolan Ryan would be an incredible mentor for him. Ogando had a up and down regular season, but watching him pitch this alcs your probaly right it would take some more pieces.

[seabeachfred]

Crawford thrived in Tampa Bay batting in the second position and just maybe that might be a comfort zone for him. Pedroia showed he could hit fourth, as strange as that might seem for a guy his size. If Crawford can come back next season it would bode well for us. Another 2011 type season and we have a white elephant on our hands and we cannot affored that. We need a rejuvinated Carl next year.

[FredLynn]

Crawford thrived in Tampa Bay batting in the second position and just maybe that might be a comfort zone for him. Pedroia showed he could hit fourth' date=' as strange as that might seem for a guy his size. If Crawford can come back next season it would bode well for us. Another 2011 type season and we have a white elephant on our hands and we cannot affored that. We need a rejuvinated Carl next year.[/quote']

 

If Crawford fails to deliver next year that would complete Epstein's legacy of failure. I am giving him one more year, and honestly, I think he will produce numbers that are closer to his career averages.

[example1]

If Crawford fails to deliver next year that would complete Epstein's legacy of failure. I am giving him one more year' date=' and honestly, I think he will produce numbers that are closer to his career averages.[/quote']

 

Hyperbole much?

 

You can argue that he (Theo) was mediocre, but "legacy of failure"? Seriously, it sounds like you're speaking more from a grudge than from an evidenced position.

 

How does a GM who have won 2 World Series possibly have a "legacy of failure"? There's no using the "poor FA signings" or "wasted money" argument here. The season ended twice with Theo's team being the best baseball team in the world.

[example1]

If I were John Henry/Larry Lucchino/Ben Cherrington, I would be very aggressive this offseason, especially with pitching. My hope is that Henry's pride is so injured, that he's willing to spend a shitload of money so he and the ownership group can go on the radio in November of 2012 and say "see, you guys made a big deal out of 2011 and we told you it would all be okay, and it was. We didn't need Theo, we didn't need Tito, we thought and knew Beckett and Lester were good. Now shut up!"

 

This may be a pipe-dream, but:

 

1. Purchase Yu Darvish (if he's available) (sorry Henry, if you could justify it for Matsuzaka you can for Darvish... plus you need pitching again--more than ever--and he's more cost effective than Wilson, won't cost draft picks, etc.,)

2. Try very hard to get Matt Cain

3. Dump Lackey

4. Re-sign Papelbon

5. Sign a former closer for setup duties

6. Re-sign Miller for minor league duties

7. Use Doubront and Bowden for middle/early relief

 

So my rotation/bullpen would be something like:

 

Beckett

Lester

Cain

Buchholz

Darvish

 

That's a rotation worthy of 160+m in spending...

 

CP-Papelbon

SU-Bard

SU-Madsen/Bell/someone else

RP-Aceves

RP-Morales

RP-Doubront

RP-Albers

 

Or something like that in the 'pen...

 

Of course, there's a good chance they will just sit tight too.

 

On offense, if they are willing to make the above moves then they would be okay letting Ortiz go, in my book. The offense will be okay if Youkilis can come back in reasonable health.

[a700hitter]

Hyperbole much?

 

You can argue that he (Theo) was mediocre, but "legacy of failure"? Seriously, it sounds like you're speaking more from a grudge than from an evidenced position.

 

How does a GM who have won 2 World Series possibly have a "legacy of failure"? There's no using the "poor FA signings" or "wasted money" argument here. The season ended twice with Theo's team being the best baseball team in the world.

In fairness, he took over a team with a very strong core. They won the 2 World Championships in his first 5 years and nothing in the last 4 years. He missed the playoffs in 3 of the last 6 years. Theo's final chapter hasn't been written. A lot will have to do with whether Carl Crawford and john Lackey cripple this team going forward and how well Theo's last three draft classes progress. I don't see that his legacy could ever be one of failure, but his legacy is far from complete.

[a700hitter]

If I were John Henry/Larry Lucchino/Ben Cherrington, I would be very aggressive this offseason, especially with pitching. My hope is that Henry's pride is so injured, that he's willing to spend a shitload of money so he and the ownership group can go on the radio in November of 2012 and say "see, you guys made a big deal out of 2011 and we told you it would all be okay, and it was. We didn't need Theo, we didn't need Tito, we thought and knew Beckett and Lester were good. Now shut up!"

 

This may be a pipe-dream, but:

 

1. Purchase Yu Darvish (if he's available) (sorry Henry, if you could justify it for Matsuzaka you can for Darvish... plus you need pitching again--more than ever--and he's more cost effective than Wilson, won't cost draft picks, etc.,)

2. Try very hard to get Matt Cain

3. Dump Lackey

4. Re-sign Papelbon

5. Sign a former closer for setup duties

6. Re-sign Miller for minor league duties

7. Use Doubront and Bowden for middle/early relief

 

So my rotation/bullpen would be something like:

 

Beckett

Lester

Cain

Buchholz

Darvish

 

That's a rotation worthy of 160+m in spending...

 

CP-Papelbon

SU-Bard

SU-Madsen/Bell/someone else

RP-Aceves

RP-Morales

RP-Doubront

RP-Albers

 

Or something like that in the 'pen...

 

Of course, there's a good chance they will just sit tight too.

 

On offense, if they are willing to make the above moves then they would be okay letting Ortiz go, in my book. The offense will be okay if Youkilis can come back in reasonable health.

Is Matt Cain a FA?

[jung]

I think 2012 is the last year of Cain's contract. I could be wrong though.

[a700hitter]

I think 2012 is the last year of Cain's contract. I could be wrong though.

If he is still under contract in 2012, the E1's wish to get him for 2012 really is a pipe dream.

[example1]

If he is still under contract in 2012' date=' the E1's wish to get him for 2012 really is a pipe dream.[/quote']

 

He's got one year left at 15m. Depending on what the Giants plan to do with him, I don't think it is unreasonable that they would be listening to offers. I can certainly think of other players with one year left who were dealt. Can't you?

[a700hitter]

He's got one year left at 15m. Depending on what the Giants plan to do with him' date=' I don't think it is unreasonable that they would be listening to offers. I can certainly think of other players with one year left who were dealt. Can't you?[/quote']You don't see it happen too often when a team is built around a core of young star pitchers, and certainly not from a team that is only 1 year removed from a World Championship. Plus, who do the Sox have that would interest the Giants?

[win red sox]

If I were John Henry/Larry Lucchino/Ben Cherrington, I would be very aggressive this offseason, especially with pitching. My hope is that Henry's pride is so injured, that he's willing to spend a shitload of money so he and the ownership group can go on the radio in November of 2012 and say "see, you guys made a big deal out of 2011 and we told you it would all be okay, and it was. We didn't need Theo, we didn't need Tito, we thought and knew Beckett and Lester were good. Now shut up!"

 

This may be a pipe-dream, but:

 

1. Purchase Yu Darvish (if he's available) (sorry Henry, if you could justify it for Matsuzaka you can for Darvish... plus you need pitching again--more than ever--and he's more cost effective than Wilson, won't cost draft picks, etc.,)

2. Try very hard to get Matt Cain

3. Dump Lackey

4. Re-sign Papelbon

5. Sign a former closer for setup duties

6. Re-sign Miller for minor league duties

7. Use Doubront and Bowden for middle/early relief

 

So my rotation/bullpen would be something like:

 

Beckett

Lester

Cain

Buchholz

Darvish

 

That's a rotation worthy of 160+m in spending...

 

CP-Papelbon

SU-Bard

SU-Madsen/Bell/someone else

RP-Aceves

RP-Morales

RP-Doubront

RP-Albers

 

Or something like that in the 'pen...

 

Of course, there's a good chance they will just sit tight too.

 

On offense, if they are willing to make the above moves then they would be okay letting Ortiz go, in my book. The offense will be okay if Youkilis can come back in reasonable health.

 

Like the addition of Cain, I would imagine the first names the Giants would bring up is Middlebrooks and Ranaudo and probaly more. In reference to Darvish, I really don't see the Sox increasing payroll.

[jung]

Are folks thinking that the Giants would be agreeable to moving Cain or would they really try to extract some real pain for Cain and if they get it fine, if not, no deal?

[example1]

In fairness' date=' he took over a team with a very strong core. They won the 2 World Championships in his first 5 years and nothing in the last 4 years. He missed the playoffs in 3 of the last 6 years. Theo's final chapter hasn't been written. A lot will have to do with whether Carl Crawford and john Lackey cripple this team going forward and how well Theo's last three draft classes progress. [b']I don't see that his legacy could ever be one of failure[/b], but his legacy is far from complete.

 

If you agree that his legacy couldn't be one of failure, then you agree with me. I said you could argue that he's been mediocre, but you can't argue that it has been a failure. The rest of what you say is immaterial to my post.

 

That said, he added essential pieces to make that initial 2004 core one that could win the WS. It wasn't like he was handed the 2004 club.

 

*Theo landed 5 of the top 9 most valuable pitchers for that club

--including 2 of the top 3 SPs (Schilling and Arroyo) and

--essentially the entire bullpen, including Keith Foulke (but minus Alan Embree).

 

He also added the pieces from the Garciaparra trade. In fact, if you factor in Millar's walk (Theo player), Roberts' stolen base (Theo player), Mueller's single (Theo Player), Ortiz's home run (Theo player), Schilling's bloody-sock (Theo player), the bullpen's clutchness (Theo players all, minus Embree), I would say the Sox absolutely dont win 2004 without Theo's influence. There can be no doubt about that.

[example1]

You don't see it happen too often when a team is built around a core of young star pitchers' date=' and certainly not from a team that is only 1 year removed from a World Championship. Plus, who do the Sox have that would interest the Giants?[/quote']

 

I think they have plenty that would interest the Giants. Whether they are willing to part with it is the question.

 

The Giants would be stupid not to at least think about a deal centered around some combination of players like Middlebrooks, Kalish, Lavarnway, Ranaudo, Boegarts, etc., There's plenty to pick from.

 

I just think the Sox would have to overpay.

[example1]

In reference to Darvish' date=' I really don't see the Sox increasing payroll.[/quote']

 

My main hope is that Henry is so pissed off that he wants to make a huge point.

 

Few seem to think the 2012 Sox will have the same staff as the 2011 Sox. If that's the case, they're going to have to do something and in terms of payroll, Darvish ought to be cheaper than most premier FAs available.

[win red sox]

My main hope is that Henry is so pissed off that he wants to make a huge point.

 

Few seem to think the 2012 Sox will have the same staff as the 2011 Sox. If that's the case, they're going to have to do something and in terms of payroll, Darvish ought to be cheaper than most premier FAs available.

 

I agree with overhaul of the pitching staff as this was the reason for the collapse, and hopefully there willing to spend some money, but with Gonzalez and Crawford's salary bumping up to 20 million and eating Lackey's contract they will have to be creative.

[FredLynn]

Hyperbole much?

 

You can argue that he (Theo) was mediocre, but "legacy of failure"? Seriously, it sounds like you're speaking more from a grudge than from an evidenced position.

 

How does a GM who have won 2 World Series possibly have a "legacy of failure"? There's no using the "poor FA signings" or "wasted money" argument here. The season ended twice with Theo's team being the best baseball team in the world.

 

Perhaps "Legacy of mediocrity" would be more accurate. He certainly cannot claim success here, not with the contracts of Lackey and Crawford hanging on this team like albatrosses.

[Cairns_Sox]

Anyone think it would be worth giving Oakland a call to kick the tyres on Gio Gonzalez? They desperately need some offense and maybe we could work out some sort of deal.

[BossSox]

Anyone think it would be worth giving Oakland a call to kick the tyres on Gio Gonzalez? They desperately need some offense and maybe we could work out some sort of deal.

 

I would love them to add Gio. Also, it would add a lefty.

[win red sox]

Anyone think it would be worth giving Oakland a call to kick the tyres on Gio Gonzalez? They desperately need some offense and maybe we could work out some sort of deal.

 

I don't know if Oakland knows what it's doing this offseason, well until there stadium issue is resolved. Hopefully, Beane still has the hots for Youkilis. So maybe, Youkilis and Raunado plus cash gets it's done.