2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[example1]

If the Reds throw in Yonder Alonso who is blocked by Votto, there is potential for an even bigger blockbuster.

 

Speaking of the Reds, I think the Red Sox should move in on Edinson Volquez. Buy low on this this former all-star. He is now two years removed from Tommy John surgery, and the Reds seem to have soured on him. He has control problems at times but has unbeliebable stuff.

 

That's the type of guy they are going to need 3-4 of.

[Meh]

So... Let me understand this....

 

We don't have pitching-depth

We we don't have a 4,5 SP

Our books are clogged

Our roster is a mobile hospital

And now... we don't have a decent farm?

 

The 2012 scenario doesn't look encouraging.

 

Your farm isn't horrible but you don't have guys in the upper levels, which makes making deals for legit talent extremely hard. Your top prospects are in low A ball so yeah they're a long ways off, not many teams want that.

[Station 13]

SIGN PAPELBON.

[example1]

I just want to point out while calls for Ellsbury for MVP float throughout the land--arguably one of the best seasons ever for a leadoff hitter--that the Sox have two homegrown MVP caliber players drafted by this FO in a very short period. this shouldn't be taken lightly. Theo and co had the chance to pull the trigger on hundreds of other players but chose those guys and they have become some of the best in the league. It doesn't eliminate responsibility for mistakes that have been made but people should think long and hard before wantonly advocating that the sox should exercise some weird form of accountability and just find some replacement for Theo. It won't be as easy as some seem to think.

[Palodios]

I just want to point out while calls for Ellsbury for MVP float throughout the land--arguably one of the best seasons ever for a leadoff hitter--that the Sox have two homegrown MVP caliber players drafted by this FO in a very short period. this shouldn't be taken lightly. Theo and co had the chance to pull the trigger on hundreds of other players but chose those guys and they have become some of the best in the league. It doesn't eliminate responsibility for mistakes that have been made but people should think long and hard before wantonly advocating that the sox should exercise some weird form of accountability and just find some replacement for Theo. It won't be as easy as some seem to think.

 

I do think this is a good point, but I think that is important to point out that Theo has not drafted all that well after 2006. 2007's best player is Alex Wilson, 2008's best are Weiland and Lavarnway, and 2009's is Middlebrooks-- with no other big names in any of those years, except for Drake Britton. I know players take time to develop, but there has definitely been a three year gap where he hasn't churned out elite players-- or major league average players, at that.

[a700hitter]

I just want to point out while calls for Ellsbury for MVP float throughout the land--arguably one of the best seasons ever for a leadoff hitter--that the Sox have two homegrown MVP caliber players drafted by this FO in a very short period. this shouldn't be taken lightly. Theo and co had the chance to pull the trigger on hundreds of other players but chose those guys and they have become some of the best in the league. It doesn't eliminate responsibility for mistakes that have been made but people should think long and hard before wantonly advocating that the sox should exercise some weird form of accountability and just find some replacement for Theo. It won't be as easy as some seem to think.

Get me the guy from Tampa so he can get us some pitching.

[iortiz]

Get me the guy from Tampa so he can get us some pitching.

 

Hell, I just noticed that they have the best pitching staff in the AL.

 

As I said, something good is going on out there in the last years.

 

We haven't won a year-series against them since 2007, Regardless they have been serious contenders in the AL with one of the most limited wallets in the majors. Coincidence? Lucky? IMO It's far to call it that way. Pure and simple management concepts and skills applied.

[example1]

I do think this is a good point' date=' but I think that is important to point out that Theo has not drafted all that well after 2006. 2007's best player is Alex Wilson, 2008's best are Weiland and Lavarnway, and 2009's is Middlebrooks-- with no other big names in any of those years, except for Drake Britton. I know players take time to develop, but there has definitely been a three year gap where he hasn't churned out elite players-- or major league average players, at that.[/quote']

 

What list are you looking at? Middlebrooks was 2007, and you're discounting guys who were traded for marquee MLB talent like V-Mart and A-Gonz.

 

2007: Hagadone, Rizzo, Middlebrooks

2008: Kelly, Weiland, Westmoreland, Lavarnway

2009: Wilson, Fuentes, Jacobs (probably the worst class recently)

2010: Brentz, Ranaudo, Coyle, Cecchini, Perkins, etc.,

2011: Recognized as a great class

 

I think everyone above projects to get some MLB time, maybe better.

 

Give them some time and I think you will be pleased with the results.

[Palodios]

What list are you looking at? Middlebrooks was 2007, and you're discounting guys who were traded for marquee MLB talent like V-Mart and A-Gonz.

 

2007: Hagadone, Rizzo, Middlebrooks

2008: Kelly, Weiland, Westmoreland, Lavarnway

2009: Wilson, Fuentes, Jacobs (probably the worst class recently)

2010: Brentz, Ranaudo, Coyle, Cecchini, Perkins, etc.,

2011: Recognized as a great class

 

I think everyone above projects to get some MLB time, maybe better.

 

Give them some time and I think you will be pleased with the results.

 

Right, I did go ahead and remove the traded prospects (and mixed up 2009 and 2007). My point is, we've seen a significant gap in influx of young talent. Hopefully some of those first rounders from the last two years turn to be studs.

[SoxSport]

I don't think they know what they're going to do at this point.

If they don't make the playoffs, heads are going to roll. Starting with Tito and the rest of the coaching staff. There is open talk in the media about a lack of discipline and conditioning on this team. And you know who will get blamed for that.

 

If they make the playoffs, Tito's job will depend on how well they do. If they play like September, they'll be a change. If they surprise and do well, you'll see few changes next year.

 

With the injuries they have right now, it's hard to see them do well. AdGon is sub-par, Youks is hurt, and Buchholz is still in limbo.

 

The guy to really point the finger at, Epstein, will escape unscathed, no matter what happens. Aside from his bad karma signing free agents, he has switched positions of two major home grown players the last two years, with disastrous results--both Ellsbury and Youkilis have broken down healthwise. The media hasn't even gotten to Youkilis yet.

[SoxSport]

I could see a mega deal with the Rays and Reds this off season with Upton and Neimann going to the Reds for Grandal and some prospects. Rays need that catcher badly. Upton could join Bruce and Stubbs. Neimann can be replaced by Torres' date=' Cobb or Moore.[/quote']

 

If they do make a deal, it will be an effort to restore some chemistry and balance in the lineup. They were actually better off last year with Beltre, Youks and VMart than they have been with Crawford and Adgon this year. You don't want a lineup full of left handed hitters in Fenway.

[iortiz]

I don't think they know what they're going to do at this point.

If they don't make the playoffs, heads are going to roll. Starting with Tito and the rest of the coaching staff. There is open talk in the media about a lack of discipline and conditioning on this team. And you know who will get blamed for that.

 

If they make the playoffs, Tito's job will depend on how well they do. If they play like September, they'll be a change. If they surprise and do well, you'll see few changes next year.

 

With the injuries they have right now, it's hard to see them do well. AdGon is sub-par, Youks is hurt, and Buchholz is still in limbo.

 

The guy to really point the finger at, Epstein, will escape unscathed, no matter what happens. Aside from his bad karma signing free agents, he has switched positions of two major home grown players the last two years, with disastrous results--both Ellsbury and Youkilis have broken down healthwise. The media hasn't even gotten to Youkilis yet.

 

Agree.

 

Nevertheless, changes or not, this team has to learn from September's nightmare, and make sure this won't happen again.

[a700hitter]

Aceves can be the 7th/8th inning guy next year. Keep him there with his 9-2 record and great ERA. Put Bard and his 2-9 record in the starting rotation. It straightened Derek Lowe about 10 years ago.

[Eck20and8]

Your farm isn't horrible but you don't have guys in the upper levels' date='[/quote']

 

if you don't have guys at upper levels, you don't have anything

 

plus, don't think you can get too excited when the top pitching prospect barely has a 2.0 K/BB in Salem

[a700hitter]

This is two seasons in a row where the team has gone into a tailspin and collapsed. These have been total collapses. Last year everyone blamed injuries and some people are still willing to make the injury excuse. Injuries were the catalyst for both collapses. This year the injuries happened later so the collapse didn't happen until September. However, injuries are part of the game. Other teams including the Yanks have had injuries in 2010 and 2011. Our injuries have sent the 2010-11 Sox teams into precipitous tailspins. Neither the 2010 or 2011 team had the necessary depth to mitigate the effect of the injuries. These have not been soundly built teams.

[example1]

This is two seasons in a row where the team has gone into a tailspin and collapsed. These have been total collapses. Last year everyone blamed injuries and some people are still willing to make the injury excuse. Injuries were the catalyst for both collapses. This year the injuries happened later so the collapse didn't happen until September. However' date=' injuries are part of the game. Other teams including the Yanks have had injuries in 2010 and 2011. Our injuries have sent the 2010-11 Sox teams into precipitous tailspins. Neither the 2010 or 2011 team had the necessary depth to mitigate the effect of the injuries. These have not been soundly built teams.[/quote']

 

Yeah, I have no clue what this is about.

 

I think it would be easy to blame conditioning, but it seems different from that. It could be nothing but s*** luck re: key injuries, or it could be poor conditioning, or it could be something psychological.

 

I have no clue, honestly. I just hope that the FO and management is motivated to figure out what the hell they can do about it.

[SCM33]

Yeah, I have no clue what this is about.

 

I think it would be easy to blame conditioning, but it seems different from that. It could be nothing but s*** luck re: key injuries, or it could be poor conditioning, or it could be something psychological.

 

I have no clue, honestly. I just hope that the FO and management is motivated to figure out what the hell they can do about it.

 

We sign/trade for players who have injury histories. Is it really all that surprising that Drew was hurt, or Beckett had to miss starts?

 

We need to seriously consider the long term health of Kevin Youkilis as well. In my eyes, hes aging at an incredible rate. He should not be playing 3B. He needs to be DH'ing next year if we pass on Papi or they need to explore other options. I am not saying Youkilis needs to be replaced, just suggesting that we need to consider what we are seeing with our eyes. Lets face it, he is not a physical specimen. He looks like a beer league softball player and his body is reacting to the grind as such.

 

There is a TON of s*** that needs to be done with this team. I think they have issues that are deeper than just injuries, age and ability. This thing needs to be blown up and put back together.

[example1]

Right' date=' I did go ahead and remove the traded prospects (and mixed up 2009 and 2007). My point is, we've seen a significant gap in influx of young talent. Hopefully some of those first rounders from the last two years turn to be studs.[/quote']

 

I think there's a chance that Lavarnway and Kalish can have a pretty significant impact on this team in the next few years. We will see, obviously, but I think Kalish will be the next "big thing" for the Sox.

 

Pitching-wise, I don't know. I'm hopeful that someone like Doubront can turn into something useful. I think there's promsie for Ranaudo and Barnes.

 

Overall, I think there's tons of promise for the farm system and we will se a significant return, but not right away. Obviously, it would be too much to hope for two more MVP caliber players, but soem good contributers would be sufficient as far as I'm concerned.

[example1]

There is a TON of s*** that needs to be done with this team. I think they have issues that are deeper than just injuries, age and ability. This thing needs to be blown up and put back together.

 

If this is true then people need to be patient with the process. I don't think it needs to be blown up at all. They should be a 95 win team next year. Yes, there should be significant changes, but not blowing it up. They are set at C (?), 1B, 2B, maybe SS, probably 3B, LF, CF and hopefully RF (Kalish/Reddick). DH is a question. Rotation has 4 arms in it, with the 5th open for debate.

 

For better or worse, Lackey is in the rotation.

 

Mabe he's been so busy ditching his cancer-ridden wife that his head has been elsewhere. I really dislike the guy, but I think he's capable of being a decent pitcher. Blah.

[Spitball]

If this is true then people need to be patient with the process. I don't think it needs to be blown up at all.

 

Good post. I agree.

 

Blowing the team up would be a serious overreaction to what has happened. It would be a terrible mistake. There are changes that need to be made but not a complete overhaul.

 

They should be a 95 win team next year. Yes' date=' there should be significant changes, but not blowing it up. They are set at C (?), 1B, 2B, maybe SS, probably 3B, LF, CF and hopefully RF (Kalish/Reddick). DH is a question.[/quote']

 

I see no need to change the lineup. If it is a problem, it is a problem almost every team would love to have. It has power, speed, on base ability, and plays defense.

 

Rotation has 4 arms in it' date=' with the 5th open for debate.[/quote']

This is the area of need. Epstien needs to address the starting pitching in particular. He needs to get in on the bidding for C.J. Wilson because he would the ace of the staff. Unfortunately, they will be bidding against the Yankees.

 

They also need to upgrade the back end of the rotation. They need a hard thrower with upside. I mentioned Edison Volquez as the type of buy low pitcher with high upside they need to be looking into.

 

Also, I'd replace Curt Young. I don't know who they should get but someone who can keep proven starters like Beckett, Lester, and Lackey from falling apart. Someone who can keep pitchers healthy.

 

Also, I'd look outside the box for pitching improvement. Perhaps even look into trading Ellsbury to San Francisco for Matt Cain. It would be an extreme move but perhaps logical in view of the team needs.

[Palodios]

I think there's a chance that Lavarnway and Kalish can have a pretty significant impact on this team in the next few years. We will see, obviously, but I think Kalish will be the next "big thing" for the Sox.

 

Pitching-wise, I don't know. I'm hopeful that someone like Doubront can turn into something useful. I think there's promsie for Ranaudo and Barnes.

 

Overall, I think there's tons of promise for the farm system and we will se a significant return, but not right away. Obviously, it would be too much to hope for two more MVP caliber players, but soem good contributers would be sufficient as far as I'm concerned.

 

I hate to take an a700 stance on Doubront/Kalish, but let's wait until they actually turn into major league players before crowning them as starters. I could very easily see Doubront and Kalish turning into the next Bedard/Lowrie of this organization. Both of them should have been called up in May/June and stayed on the roster since then, but they have had injury after injury after injury.

 

I hate to say it, but Lavarnway may be trade bait. Between Youk/Ortiz, I'm a little unsure if this organization is willing to put him at DH fulltime right now, and they don't seem to have the confidence in him to let him catch.

[a700hitter]

89 wins with 2 games left to play is terrible under performance for $174 million, even if they make the playoffs. This is all on the head of Theo and Tito, mainly Theo. To blame it on the players is a copout. Obviously, they win or lose the games, but unless they are just not trying, how do you blame them for not being good enough. The FO takes the hit for them not being good enough. The FO assembles the team and they spent a ton fdoing it. If they lost because the players quit, that is also a management issue. Managers need to motivate and GMs should not be signing players who are not highly motivated. I don't think the players quit. It wasn't an issue of motivation. They simply weren't good enough. That's Theo's department. Since we have a lot of our big ticket players coming back and there will probably be few changes, if management is also not changed, I see no basis to believe that they will win 95 games next season. This collapse will be the worst collapse in history taking into account the expectations and the payroll. Two collapses in two years... Heads must roll. Theo spends money like a drunk sailor and his record on his spending is horrendous. The minor leagues have no big help coming anytime soon. He's got to go. He's no longer the wunderkid. He's just another under performing GM.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't think the Sox are going to be in on any bidding wars this offseason. Their salary going into next season is set at $126mm.

 

Then you have to add all your arbitration guys (Ellsbury included), which would take that up to around $142mm. Ortiz gets $10mm, Pap gets $15mm, that puts this team at $167mm.

 

Then you have to replace Drew (Kalish, $450k), Wakefield (Free Agent, $2mm), Varitek (Lavarnway, $450k). That alone gets you up to $170mm.

 

Then the whole dumpster diving for bullpen arms, and depth arms. Unfortunately, unless we let Ortiz or Papelbon walk, anything we acquire is going to have to be a cheap option via trade.

 

Unless, of course, it's for Felix, and he makes $60mm over the next 3 years, so he would be expensive, but I would trade the farm for him.

[a700hitter]

I hate to take an a700 stance on Doubront/Kalish, but let's wait until they actually turn into major league players before crowning them as starters. I could very easily see Doubront and Kalish turning into the next Bedard/Lowrie of this organization. Both of them should have been called up in May/June and stayed on the roster since then, but they have had injury after injury after injury.

 

I hate to say it, but Lavarnway may be trade bait. Between Youk/Ortiz, I'm a little unsure if this organization is willing to put him at DH fulltime right now, and they don't seem to have the confidence in him to let him catch.

There are several posters on this forum who you should not want to sound like, but I'm not one of them. LOL! Especially considering that I am almost always right. Only me and IOrtiz could see the direction this team was heading in after the first week of September. We were called pessimists, but. unfortunately we were right.

[SoxFanForsyth]

There are several posters on this forum who you should not want to sound like' date=' but I'm not one of them. LOL! Especially considering that I am almost always right. Only me and IOrtiz could see the direction this team was heading in after the first week of September. We were called pessimists, but. [b']unfortunately we were right.

[/b]

 

This may be true, but I'm going to wait until Thursday to confirm this. It's not like this team has no history of having it's back against the wall.

 

Hopefully they come out and play like 04 or 07. Hell, even 08 when we were down 3-1 to the Rays and forced a game 7. It's all or nothing now.

[a700hitter]

[/b]

 

This may be true, but I'm going to wait until Thursday to confirm this. It's not like this team has no history of having it's back against the wall.

 

Hopefully they come out and play like 04 or 07. Hell, even 08 when we were down 3-1 to the Rays and forced a game 7. It's all or nothing now.

They may dig deep and survive, but it will have to an extraordinary effort by the players who are woefully undermanned at this point. Regardless of whether they advance, no one othe than IOrtiz and myself saw this coming down to the final series with the Sox on the brink of elimination. Do you know what a long shot bet it was for the Sox to play this badly?

[iortiz]

They may dig deep and survive' date=' but it will have to an extraordinary effort by the players who are woefully undermanned at this point. Regardless of whether they advance, no one othe than IOrtiz and myself saw this coming down to the final series with the Sox on the brink of elimination. Do you know what a long shot bet it was for the Sox to play this badly?[/quote']

 

We should bet

[iortiz]

We sign/trade for players who have injury histories. Is it really all that surprising that Drew was hurt, or Beckett had to miss starts?

 

We need to seriously consider the long term health of Kevin Youkilis as well. In my eyes, hes aging at an incredible rate. He should not be playing 3B. He needs to be DH'ing next year if we pass on Papi or they need to explore other options. I am not saying Youkilis needs to be replaced, just suggesting that we need to consider what we are seeing with our eyes. Lets face it, he is not a physical specimen. He looks like a beer league softball player and his body is reacting to the grind as such.

 

There is a TON of s*** that needs to be done with this team. I think they have issues that are deeper than just injuries, age and ability. This thing needs to be blown up and put back together.

 

This is known as poor, weak and lack of top management among a lot other, and as consequence you need a full business process re-engineering in order to clean the whole house. Sure, Tito should go, but ain't the answer for all our concerns. He is just a good start.

 

This is not lucky or a coincidence. Horrible bad decisions at several levels have been taking place at least the last 3 years. If you want real answers, the first door you should knock is the GM's.

[Palodios]

They may dig deep and survive' date=' but it will have to an extraordinary effort by the players who are woefully undermanned at this point. Regardless of whether they advance, no one othe than IOrtiz and myself saw this coming down to the final series with the Sox on the brink of elimination. Do you know what a long shot bet it was for the Sox to play this badly?[/quote']

 

Definitely. I know I tend to get into arguments with you pretty frequently on here, but you do tend to be incredibly knowledgeable. That being said, you have a very straightforward way of viewing prospects: tradebait until proven.

[example1]

I'm f***ing pissed off. I'm hurt. I'm disappointed. But you know what?

 

I'm not going to spend my time bitching and moaning. No excuses, they just have to do better.

 

This should motivate the team if anything would. There's no reason not to make significant changes here.

 

If the FO thinks they have a plan that will give this team more wins by moving on from established Sox veterans, then I'm all for it. If they want to move on from Francona, I support it.

 

I agree with the need for new blood. I disagree that Theo needs to go. Or, to put it another way, if Theo goes, THAT is the biggest move of the offseason. If people want to come back with this team and a new GM, so be it, but that seems like a tacit admission that the team is good right now.

 

Players I will think long and hard about moving forward:

 

Ortiz: May cost too much, for too many years. Do I have a better replacement in mind? No.

 

Papelbon: Just watched him blow two games down the stretch. He's a great, elite pitcher. Can't be replaced. But should they sign him to a 5 year-15m contract? I don't know.

 

Pitching: How the f*** do they improve this rotation?

 

1. Drop Wake

2. Accept that they are going to have to suck up some of the cost for Dice-K and Lackey and be aggressive.

3. Look at a trade and don't take players off the list of availability. Ellsbury for a true ace? Maybe. Buchholz +? Maybe.

4. Go after a guy like CJ Wilson? Certainly explore it... but don't drop ANOTHER 20m contract. They just can't do it right now. Not for Wilson.

5. Go after ANOTHER Japanese player in Yu Darvish? I would consider it strongly. Again, LOTS of non-payroll tax money to get an established pitcher. They can't let thei rfrustration with Matsuzaka deter them from looking at other potentially good players.

6. Aceves/Doubront/another internal option? Nah. Go with those guys as depth.

 

More pitching:

* Have to get more locks in the bullpen, but bullpen guys are so freaking variable. Can they find a deal for a decent middle-reliever out there? Who knows...

 

Meh, I don't know. I'm sure my thoughts will develop over time. Lots of decisions to make, and now is a good time for a substantial (but targeted and intelligent--not reactionary--shake up).