9/20 vs Orioles

[MNSoxChief102]

I don't believe in luck. I think their FO deserves a lot of credit. They kicked our asses without making any big $ acquisition this year. This guy Nova is looking pretty good. We crow about Buchholz as a Cy Young contender when healthy' date=' but Nova has been really good. They have a guy in their pen in Robertson who is having an unbelievable season. He is better than anyone we have right now. Tip your hat to them otherwise we are spoiled sports and whiners.[/quote']

 

I never said they shouldn't get any credit for making those moves... they should and I do tip my cap to them for earning a playoff trip and most likely the division crown.

 

But you can't realistically say that their FO knew all along that Colon, Garcia, Chavez, Martin, and Jones would all be as good as they've been. Luck played a big part in that happening... whether you want to believe in it or not. They took a shot and it paid off. In another year, the opposite could just as well happen.

[a700hitter]

I am a strong believer in Branch Rickey's statement that "Luck is the residue of design." Chalking things up to luck is a loser's lament. If the Sox regain their footing and hold onto the playoff spot, they will need some good fortune, but if they advance, I would reject the notion that they were lucky. Random good luck and bad luck even out.

[MNSoxChief102]

I am a strong believer in Branch Rickey's statement that "Luck is the residue of design." Chalking things up to luck is a loser's lament. If the Sox regain their footing and hold onto the playoff spot' date=' they will need some good fortune, but if they advance, I would reject the notion that they were lucky. Random good luck and bad luck even out.[/quote']

 

I agree with you for the most part. But I do think the Yanks have had their fair share of luck and good fortune this year. No one could have predicted their rotation would be as good as it has been all year long.

[example1]

I think luck is a convenient excuse for losers. I reject that.

 

I reject your rejection.

 

Unless you have omniscience then luck or probability plays a big role in everything. Continually explaining problems as being due to "bad luck" IS a weak excuse. However, highlighting bad luck as a contributer--or even a significant contributer--to poor results is sometimes valid.

 

You don't attribute the 2004 championship to the good luck of Posada's ground-rule double hopping into the stands, do you? You should. No amount of preparation, planning or anything else makes that ball hope into the stand and strand the runner at 3rd.

 

Luck goes both ways, it is a factor, but it isn't an all encompassing excuse. Expecting that any mortal human can overcome the random nature of the world seems like an unreasonably high expectation to me.

[iortiz]

You don't believe in luck? That seems like a pretty bold claim. What would you call winning the lottery? Good preparation?

 

The Sox wiped the floor with the Yankees head to head this year.

 

Clearly in retrospect the Yankees made good decisions (out of necessity, mind you) on their pitchers. I hope they stick with this pitching staff moving forward because it isn't that good.

 

As I said, large corporations don't understand terms or concepts like names (Theo), time (2 WS) or luck (Garcia or Colon). They plan, execute, deliver results and adjust over and over and over again through loooooooong periods of time.

[MNSoxChief102]

I reject your rejection.

 

Unless you have omniscience then luck or probability plays a big role in everything. Continually explaining problems as being due to "bad luck" IS a weak excuse. However, highlighting bad luck as a contributer--or even a significant contributer--to poor results is sometimes valid.

 

You don't attribute the 2004 championship to the good luck of Posada's ground-rule double hopping into the stands, do you? You should. No amount of preparation, planning or anything else makes that ball hope into the stand and strand the runner at 3rd.

 

Luck goes both ways, it is a factor, but it isn't an all encompassing excuse. Expecting that any mortal human can overcome the random nature of the world seems like an unreasonably high expectation to me.

 

+1 :thumbsup:

[wake21334]

The Yankees made some lucky moves. Their strategy is not one we would want our GM to pursue... in fact, he has pursued it in the past and was shat upon by the very people who would have loved for him to do it this year. The Sox had Bartolo Colon a few years ago.

 

Clearly the depth was a problem this year, but this team slumped and sucked across the board in a remarkable way that was unexpected and unpredictable. If Jon Lester pitches like Jon Lester then this team has two more wins and probably has a more comfortable lead at this point. Daniel Bard suddenly blows a few games? Who would have predicted that? Crawford has been AWFUL.

 

I'm not clearing the FO of all blame, but I lay this one squarely at the feet of the players as well.

 

Don't know how you call it luck when they have comfortably made the playoffs every year except one over the last 15 years. I mean its not just luck when they are successful every year. A lot of Sox fans like to pain the picture like the yankees have all this money and they have some unfair advantages. That just isn't the case any more. We have nearly as a high of a payroll. Like I stated earlier in regards to Theo, what the guy has done in 04 and 07 deserves a lot of credit. He put together some excellent teams. I just don't think he deserves to be off limits when things go wrong. Last year IMHO he doesn't deserve heat for. This year he does, between the fat contracts of Dice K, Crawford and Lackey he deserves some criticism.

 

When I say Theo I really mean the entire management. They all deserve the heat for whats going on. We cannot sit back with a little red sox or whoa is me attitude. We have the same resources to be as consistently good as the yankees. It is not like it used to be.

[a700hitter]

I never said they shouldn't get any credit for making those moves... they should and I do tip my cap to them for earning a playoff trip and most likely the division crown.

 

But you can't realistically say that their FO knew all along that Colon, Garcia, Chavez, Martin, and Jones would all be as good as they've been. Luck played a big part in that happening... whether you want to believe in it or not. They took a shot and it paid off. In another year, the opposite could just as well happen.

They are all very talented players with lots of major league achievement. Maybe their medical staff does a really good job. Maybe they were fortunate for all of them to have performed at a high level, but I don't think it was luck that some or most of them to have performed well. I don't know what Theo was thinking by setting up a bench comprise of very old players like VAritek and Cameron, a non-entity like DMac and the injury prone Lowrie.

[a700hitter]

I reject your rejection.

 

Unless you have omniscience then luck or probability plays a big role in everything. Continually explaining problems as being due to "bad luck" IS a weak excuse. However, highlighting bad luck as a contributer--or even a significant contributer--to poor results is sometimes valid.

 

You don't attribute the 2004 championship to the good luck of Posada's ground-rule double hopping into the stands, do you? You should. No amount of preparation, planning or anything else makes that ball hope into the stand and strand the runner at 3rd.

 

Luck goes both ways, it is a factor, but it isn't an all encompassing excuse. Expecting that any mortal human can overcome the random nature of the world seems like an unreasonably high expectation to me.

I like you E1, but you sound like a whiny loser. I can't use luck as an excuse.

[example1]

I am a strong believer in Branch Rickey's statement that "Luck is the residue of design." Chalking things up to luck is a loser's lament. If the Sox regain their footing and hold onto the playoff spot' date=' they will need some good fortune, but if they advance, [b']I would reject the notion that they were lucky[/b]. Random good luck and bad luck even out.

 

This seems to be a play on language more than anything else.

 

--If they hold onto a playoff spot they will need some good fortune (luck in everyone else's book)

 

--If they advance you would reject the notion that they were lucky

 

That doesn't make sense. Either they had good fortune at some point in time (were lucky) or they were not. Having bad luck later does not make luck suddenly not-luck.

 

In any case, all luck is random, that's what makes it 'luck'. What Branch Rickey was talking about is those things you can prepare for and his statement was an attempt to remind people that you can prepare for more things than most people believe. I suspect that Theo is just as thorough in his view of what can and cannot be prepared for.

 

What we (I think) are talking about are things you cannot prepare for. That's the very definition of what I would refer to as luck.

 

Luck: "The chance happening of fortunate or adverse events; fortune".

[a700hitter]

Random good luck and bad luck evens out over the course of a season. The fact that the random bad luck comes at the end at inopportune moments doesn't give luck any validity as an excuse.

[a700hitter]

This seems to be a play on language more than anything else.

 

--If they hold onto a playoff spot they will need some good fortune (luck in everyone else's book)

 

--If they advance you would reject the notion that they were lucky

 

That doesn't make sense. Either they had good fortune at some point in time (were lucky) or they were not. Having bad luck later does not make luck suddenly not-luck.

 

In any case, all luck is random, that's what makes it 'luck'. What Branch Rickey was talking about is those things you can prepare for and his statement was an attempt to remind people that you can prepare for more things than most people believe. I suspect that Theo is just as thorough in his view of what can and cannot be prepared for.

 

What we (I think) are talking about are things you cannot prepare for. That's the very definition of what I would refer to as luck.

 

Luck: "The chance happening of fortunate or adverse events; fortune".

It's not a play on words. Random good luck and bad luck even out over 162 games.

[example1]

I like you E1' date=' but you sound like a whiny loser. I can't use luck as an excuse.[/quote']

 

I like you too, but you make claims about the entire world as if it is easy to understand and fits into nice/neat categories. You sound like a simpleton. I see luck, fortune and chance everywhere and so do most people.

 

The world is filled with probabilities... otherwise, success would be much, much easier than it is.

[wake21334]

People create opportunities for both good and bad luck. It is no surprise why teams in certain sports do better than others over a long period of time. It starts first with management and being able to identify diamonds in the rough, evaluating young players and having good enough talent. It also requires smart coaching staffs to put the players in the best possible situations to succeed. I believe that you create your "luck" more often than not.

[iortiz]

Good luck or bad luck are not an excuse in order to deliver results at any level or size of organization, period.

[example1]

It's not a play on words. Random good luck and bad luck even out over 162 games.

 

That's either a statistical fact, or a bold claim based on nothing in particular.

 

Did luck play ANY role in the Sox recent woes? Absolutely. Did it play a role in the Yankees finding starting pitching off the scrap heap? Yep.

 

Would it be intellectually dishonest to say that it is the main reason they succeeded? Yes.

[example1]

People create opportunities for both good and bad luck. It is no surprise why teams in certain sports do better than others over a long period of time. It starts first with management and being able to identify diamonds in the rough' date=' evaluating young players and having good enough talent. It also requires smart coaching staffs to put the players in the best possible situations to succeed. I believe that you create your "luck" more often than not.[/quote']

 

So you should be pretty happy with the Red Sox sustained success since 2003, no? If you create "luck" then it isn't "luck". Luck is, by definition, out of your control.

[a700hitter]

I like you too, but you make claims about the entire world as if it is easy to understand and fits into nice/neat categories. You sound like a simpleton. I see luck, fortune and chance everywhere and so do most people.

 

The world is filled with probabilities... otherwise, success would be much, much easier than it is.

I am far from a simpleton, but you are far out on a limb looking whiny if you want to attribute a butt kicking over a 162 game schedule to something like random luck. That sounds a little simple-- a convenient excuse and a lack of accountability.

 

If you wanted to attribute it partly to the fact that the interleague schedule is not balanced, I could buy that. That's not luck. The Sox had the tougher schedule, and we got our asses kicked. But blaming random luck is like blaming the baseball gods.

[iortiz]

I am far from a simpleton, but you are far out on a limb looking whiny if you want to attribute a butt kicking over a 162 game schedule to something like random luck. That sounds a little simple-- a convenient excuse and a lack of accountability.

 

If you wanted to attribute it partly to the fact that the interleague schedule is not balanced, I could buy that. That's not luck. The Sox had the tougher schedule, and we got our asses kicked. But blaming random luck is like blaming the baseball gods.

 

[example1]

I am far from a simpleton, but you are far out on a limb looking whiny if you want to attribute a butt kicking over a 162 game schedule to something like random luck. That sounds a little simple-- a convenient excuse and a lack of accountability.

 

If you wanted to attribute it partly to the fact that the interleague schedule is not balanced, I could buy that. That's not luck. The Sox had the tougher schedule, and we got our asses kicked. But blaming random luck is like blaming the baseball gods.

 

I don't think I attributed anything to luck in this post. You should read what I'm writing.

 

I'm merely disputing your bold claim that you don't believe in luck. Luck can be used poorly as an excuse--which I'm not doing now--but to deny its existence seems absurd.

 

Of course I know you're not a simpleton.

 

There's plenty of legitimate, tangible things to blame this season on.

[a700hitter]

That's either a statistical fact, or a bold claim based on nothing in particular.

 

Did luck play ANY role in the Sox recent woes? Absolutely. Did it play a role in the Yankees finding starting pitching off the scrap heap? Yep.

 

Would it be intellectually dishonest to say that it is the main reason they succeeded? Yes.

What about the bad luck that the Yankees lost Jeter and ARod for several games, or that they lost Hughes for most of the season and that he has been ineffective most of the time when he wasn't injured. They lost Soriano for most of the season and Joba as well. Pedro Felicaino never pitched an inning. The luck evens out. They have had their share of bad luck.

[wake21334]

So you should be pretty happy with the Red Sox sustained success since 2003' date=' no? If you create "luck" then it isn't "luck". Luck is, by definition, out of your control.[/quote']

 

I said "luck" because I believe that you control your own destinies more so than luck does. With things being nearly as equal as they are with both the sox and yankees organizations, it is not luck when one team has missed the playoffs once out of 15 years. It's having good resources, management, coaching, and athletes. I believe those 4 things far outweigh luck over 162 games and a playoff series.

[a700hitter]

I don't think I attributed anything to luck in this post. You should read what I'm writing.

 

I'm merely disputing your bold claim that you don't believe in luck. Luck can be used poorly as an excuse--which I'm not doing now--but to deny its existence seems absurd.

 

Of course I know you're not a simpleton.

 

There's plenty of legitimate, tangible things to blame this season on.

Let me clarify once more. When I say that I don't believe in luck, I reject it as an excuse. Random good and bad luck evens out over 162 games. I am not sure what you are disagreeing with.

[wake21334]

I think we can all agree that luck is a part of anything but IMHO luck plays a minor roll as opposed to the management making the right signings/hires, the players playing to the best of their abilities and the coaches putting the players in the right positions to succeed. I know example1 that your not saying that luck is the end all be all. I am more or less referring to whomever said that the yankees were more lucky than anything.

[a700hitter]

We're all frustrated. There's plenty of cold months to dissect the reasons for losing. Let's hope that we don't blow this thing so we can enjoy some playoff baseball. Goodnight. See ya all tomorrow.

[example1]

Let me clarify once more. When I say that I don't believe in luck' date=' I reject it as an excuse. Random good and bad luck evens out over 162 games. I am not sure what you are disagreeing with.[/quote']

 

With that clarification, I don't disagree with much.

 

Of course, if a season comes down to one game, and one team has s*** luck (a ground rule double that would otherwise score a run) and that team goes home because the other team wins, I don't consider that evening out. In that instance, luck plays a SIGNIFICANT role in the outcome for one team rather than the other.

[example1]

I think we can all agree that luck is a part of anything but IMHO luck plays a minor roll as opposed to the management making the right signings/hires' date=' the players playing to the best of their abilities and the coaches putting the players in the right positions to succeed. I know example1 that your not saying that luck is the end all be all. I am more or less referring to whomever said that the yankees were more lucky than anything.[/quote']

 

Fair enough. Clearly the Yankees have a great team. It wasn't "lucky" that Granderson turned into a superstar. I was anxious as hell when they got him.

 

What was lucky was that he was merely mediocre last year.

 

If we're "lucky" he will go back to being 20HR Grandy next year.

 

Of course, that will be balanced by the reemergence of 12 HR Jacoby Ellsbury...

[a700hitter]

With that clarification, I don't disagree with much.

 

Of course, if a season comes down to one game, and one team has s*** luck (a ground rule double that would otherwise score a run) and that team goes home because the other team wins, I don't consider that evening out. In that instance, luck plays a SIGNIFICANT role in the outcome for one team rather than the other.

You would think the older dude like me would cling to the notion of luck playing a role. I had to reject it many years ago, because it didn't hold up living in NY.

[crc2120]

Well at least when Wake pitches against the Yankees on Saturday Burnett will be the one pitching for them....

[SoxFanForsyth]

Anytime the Rays lose, it's a victory for the Sox because the magic number goes down.

 

Unfortunately, the Sox had a good chance at putting themselves 3 up last night, but couldn't do it. But f*** last night, and f*** September. Hell, my birthday is in September, and I still say f*** September.

 

Beckett needs to go out tonight and give this team a huge boost. Get us through 7 IP and get us a win. If TB and NYY split today, as is expected in almost any DH, Sox will be up by 2.5 (Rays play tomorrow, Sox day off) with 6 games left. Even if the Sox go 3-3 at that point, the Rays will have to sweep one series and go 2-1 in the other just to force a playoff for a berth.

 

Don't let it get to that. Win today. Win tomorrow. And keep f***ing winning.